Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 2–2 Ross County

Saturday 10 April 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 34 · Half-time 2–1

Kilmarnock Burke 3', Pinnock 16'

Ross County Gardyne 5', Iacovitti 54'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals22
xG0.691.07
Expected Points1.001.65

Kilmarnock 22%Draw 35%Ross County 43%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 2–2, 3%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%3%11%7%2%4%5%3%17%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTKiltie on for McKenzie, 71'Paton on for Tillson, 69'Kelly on for Vigurs, 75'Charles-Cook on for Gardyne and Hylton on for McKay, 80'Burke 3'Pinnock 16'Gardyne 5'Iacovitti 54'Ross County 1.07Kilmarnock 0.6900.511.50153045607590HTKiltie on for McKenzie, 71'Paton on for Tillson, 69'Kelly on for Vigurs, 75'Charles-Cook on for Gardyne and Hylton on for McKay, 80'Burke 3'Pinnock 16'Gardyne 5'Iacovitti 54'1.070.69KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

0.69 −0.34xG1.07 +0.06
0.51 −0.45xG on target0.69 −0.14
14 +3.7Shots13 +3.4
6 +2.9Shots on target4 +0.9
0 −1.0Big chances1 −0.3
25 +6Touches in the opposition box22 +7
46% 0Possession54% +6
336 −29Passes404 +26
64% −4Pass accuracy67% −2
54% +5Field tilt46% +1
43 +7Final-third entries36 +1
14 +4.1Box entries13 +5.6
15.3 +1Passes per defensive action11.1 −3
6 +1.0Corners1 −3.2
8 −5Tackles13 −1
10 −1Interceptions5 −6
11 −6Clearances22 −3
2 −0.4Saves4 +0.7
14 +2Fouls17 +3
1 −1.1Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 72', 0.11 xGPinnock 28', 0.07 xGPower 89', 0.06 xGPinnock 61', 0.05 xGBurke 36', 0.04 xGLafferty 63', 0.04 xGPower 74', 0.04 xGLafferty 88', 0.04 xGLafferty 89', 0.04 xGBurke 90', 0.04 xGPower 49', 0.03 xGBurke 75', 0.03 xGPinnock 16', 0.06 xG, goalBurke 3', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals31%0.22 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 2 goals27%0.19 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals41%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Draper 51', 0.27 xGGardyne 43', 0.10 xGWhite 47', 0.07 xGWhite 22', 0.06 xGWhite 49', 0.06 xGVigurs 54', 0.06 xGGardyne 70', 0.06 xGWhite 86', 0.05 xGTremarco 18', 0.04 xGWhite 34', 0.04 xGDraper 23', 0.03 xGGardyne 5', 0.12 xG, goalIacovitti 54', 0.12 xG, goal11%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 1 goal75%0.81 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal8%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.54 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.62 10 shots, 1 goal
0.15 3 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.45 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
50 min (56%) · Kilmarnock 0.55, Ross County 0.11 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
40 min (44%) · Kilmarnock 0.14, Ross County 0.96 xG

Line-ups

1625243296819728DoyleMcGowanBroadfootMedleyHaunstrupBurkePowerDickerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyGoalYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card71'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Tommy Wright12315163221167926LaidlawNaismithWatsonIacovittiTremarcoTillsonVigursDraperGardyneMcKayWhiteYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal69'75'80'80'Ross County 4-4-1-1John Hughes

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 71' Kiltie for McKenzie

Ross County substitutes

  • 69' Paton for Tillson
  • 75' Kelly for Vigurs
  • 80' Hylton for McKay
  • 80' Charles-Cook for Gardyne

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0200.0640
McGowanRB900.000.0420.1492
BroadfootCB900.000.0400.07102
MedleyCB900.000.0000.0318
HaunstrupLB900.000.1020.2094
BurkeRM9010.150.021−0.0420
Power CM900.130.0610.1454
DickerCM900.000.0320.0863
PinnockLM9010.170.0100.0254
McKenzie AM710.000.0100.0013
Lafferty ST900.130.000−0.0210
KiltieFW190.110.011−0.0300

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0651
Naismith RB900.000.0510.0853
WatsonCB900.000.0100.0456
IacovittiCB9010.120.0100.04411
TremarcoLB900.040.4420.3987
Tillson RM690.000.000−0.0311
Vigurs CM7510.060.2630.0782
DraperCM900.310.0100.0313
GardyneLM8010.280.0910.1450
McKayAM8010.000.1120.0421
WhiteST900.270.0200.0644
PatonMF210.000.0520.0834
KellyMF150.000.0000.0001
HyltonFW100.000.0000.0000
Charles-CookFW100.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Doyle and Pinnock: 3 passesMcGowan and Pinnock: 3 passesHaunstrup and Lafferty: 3 passesBurke and McKenzie: 3 passesDicker and Pinnock: 3 passesDoyle and Broadfoot: 4 passesMcGowan and Burke: 4 passesMcGowan and McKenzie: 4 passesMedley and Haunstrup: 4 passesDoyle and Lafferty: 5 passesMcGowan and Broadfoot: 5 passesMcGowan and Dicker: 5 passesMcGowan and Power: 5 passesMedley and Broadfoot: 5 passesBroadfoot and Power: 5 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 5 passesDicker and Power: 5 passesBurke and Power: 6 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 9 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 12 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 16 passesDoyle: 12 completed passesMcGowan: 17 completed passesMedley: 6 completed passesBroadfoot: 19 completed passesHaunstrup: 24 completed passesBurke: 8 completed passesDicker: 25 completed passesPower: 13 completed passesPinnock: 10 completed passesMcKenzie: 7 completed passesLafferty: 1 completed passes1622453298619728DoyleMcGowanMedleyBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeDickerPowerPinnockMcKenzieLaffertyStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Ross County

Naismith and Iacovitti: 5 passesIacovitti and Draper: 5 passesTremarco and Draper: 5 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 6 passesLaidlaw and White: 6 passesNaismith and Gardyne: 6 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 7 passesTremarco and Vigurs: 8 passesWatson and Vigurs: 9 passesTremarco and Gardyne: 9 passesTillson and Vigurs: 9 passesDraper and Gardyne: 9 passesVigurs and Gardyne: 9 passesGardyne and McKay: 9 passesIacovitti and Tremarco: 10 passesDraper and Vigurs: 10 passesDraper and McKay: 10 passesNaismith and Watson: 11 passesNaismith and Tillson: 11 passesNaismith and McKay: 14 passesNaismith and Vigurs: 15 passesIacovitti and Vigurs: 17 passesLaidlaw: 18 completed passesNaismith: 37 completed passesIacovitti: 31 completed passesWatson: 21 completed passesTremarco: 25 completed passesTillson: 15 completed passesDraper: 22 completed passesVigurs: 46 completed passesGardyne: 24 completed passesMcKay: 23 completed passesWhite: 7 completed passes12316153226117926LaidlawNaismithIacovittiWatsonTremarcoTillsonDraperVigursGardyneMcKayWhiteStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupPinnock14
DickerHaunstrup13
PinnockHaunstrup9
DickerBroadfoot8
HaunstrupMedley7

Ross County

FromToPasses
VigursIacovitti10
NaismithMcKay9
LaidlawWhite9
WatsonNaismith8
NaismithVigurs8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4+0.57−0.16−0.44−3.07+0.86−2.980.05+0.75−0.43−0.97+2.06+0.75+1.33−0.71−1.63−0.45+0.82−0.42+0.12+0.62+0.63+0.92+1.10−0.31+0.10−0.43+2.42−3.79−3.93−3.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Ross County

8+2.56−0.517+1.58−1.110+4.38+0.37−2.57−1.83−2.36+0.67+3.56+0.84−1.74−0.26+2.50−2.33−0.23−1.20−2.12+0.92+1.02+0.50−1.90−0.81+0.72+1.41+0.51+0.31−6.61−6.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.050.020.030.010.020.030.030.020.020.020.010.050.040.030.030.030.02−0.08−0.100.060.070.060.070.07LessMore

Ross County

0.020.030.010.010.020.010.010.020.030.010.010.020.060.070.010.010.110.03−0.010.100.100.04−0.010.30LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 0.94Ross County0.94 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27 → 1.27Ross County1.58 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th34%38%+4
Bottom17%19%+2
Ross County
11th36%36%0
Bottom28%26%−2
Hamilton Academical
11th28%24%−4
Bottom55%55%0

From the forecast before the match (10 April 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.441.03
Win46%26%
Expected Points1.651.07
Clean sheet36%24%

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 28%Ross County 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%2%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%4%2%2%2%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 April 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Kilmarnock
11th34%23%38%47%
Bottom17%5%19%34%
Ross County
11th36%43%36%25%
Bottom28%41%26%7%
Hamilton Academical
11th28%32%24%26%
Bottom55%54%55%59%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W4–120 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.33
  2. L2–36 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.67–1.21
  3. D1–127 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.25–1.02
  4. L0–120 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  5. L0–113 FebRangers (A)xG 0.08–1.47
  6. L0–110 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.00–0.95

Ross County

  1. L0–120 MarSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.15–1.93
  2. L1–213 MarHibernian (H)xG 1.36–2.75
  3. W3–26 MarKilmarnock (H)xG 1.21–1.67
  4. L0–127 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.91–1.41
  5. W1–021 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.98–2.31
  6. L0–26 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.74–1.65

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position11th10th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠4–⁠218–⁠5–⁠20
Points28 (0.85 per game)29 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.160.85
Goals33–⁠4726–⁠59
xG per game1.03–⁠1.331.01–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.23–⁠1.340.94, 1.02–⁠2.02
Away: points, xG per game0.59, 0.83–⁠1.320.81, 1.00–⁠1.62
ManagerTommy Wright (5)John Hughes (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackKilmarnock0.96, 8thRoss County0.94, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27, 8thRoss County1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 0.96Ross County attack: 0.940.960.94Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.27Ross County defence: 1.581.581.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−28%+2%−16%+42%
Counter-attacks−89%−27%+29%−6%
Set pieces+3%+26%−16%+23%
Penalties+7%−10%−64%+133%
Headers−13%+2%+9%+8%
Left side−16%+14%−21%+32%
Centre−28%+3%−3%+47%
Right side−15%+8%−27%+15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−16%+15%Centre−28%+47%Right side−15%+32%Open play−28%+42%Counter-attacks−89%−6%Set pieces+3%+23%Headers−13%+8%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−21%+8%Centre−3%+3%Right side−27%+14%Open play−16%+2%Counter-attacks+29%−27%Set pieces−16%+26%Headers+9%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

1.03xG1.01
1.33xG against1.83
46%Possession48%
10.3Shots9.6
13.1Shots against14.5
3.1Shots on target3.1
1.0Big chances1.3
19.3Touches in the opposition box14.6
365Passes378
68%Pass accuracy69%
5.0Corners4.2
49%Field tilt44%
36.4Final-third entries35.1
9.9Box entries7.4
14.4Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.941.15
Ahead191.091.67
Behind301.121.36

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.031.80
Ahead140.522.07
Behind321.211.76

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.165–5
16–300.130.215–9
31–450.190.186–5
46–600.210.207–9
61–750.210.265–8
76–900.180.335–11

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.323–6
16–300.140.267–10
31–450.150.223–5
46–600.210.353–11
61–750.160.342–13
76–900.210.338–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTRogers 24Doyle 8Eastwood 1McGowan 14Millen 14Rossi 4Broadfoot 26Dikamona 9Rossi 3Findlay 21Medley 6Haunstrup 16Waters 16Brophy 1Burke 23McKenzie 4Pinnock 2Power 19Dicker 18McKenzie 2Tshibola 20Mulumbu 4Pinnock 1McKenzie 11Pinnock 9Kiltie 9Kabamba 21Brophy 6Whitehall 5Kiltie 9Power 7Tshibola 44-4-2 in 11 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 28Doohan 5Naismith 11Randall 10Watson 4Donaldson 19Morris 9Watson 8Iacovitti 25Hjelde 4Grivosti 1Reid 17Tremarco 5Hjelde 3Vigurs 11Tillson 5Draper 4Paton 5Charles-Cook 5Gardyne 4Paton 14Tillson 9Draper 6Kelly 11Vigurs 10Lakin 8Gardyne 8Hylton 6Stewart 6Shaw 11Stewart 9McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 3-5-1-1 (4), 4-5-1 (4), 4-4-1-1 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 March 2021Ross County3–2KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.67
21 November 2020Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 2.12–1.87
12 August 2020Ross County2–2KilmarnockxG 2.02–1.06

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Ross County won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–6 and xG 1.62–1.70 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke242,136830.230.22
Whitehall5465200.400.04
Brophy8637200.320.02
Pinnock121,125130.130.18

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White6568220.370.08
McKay121,141500.330.11
Stewart191,650210.370.06
Shaw121,251610.290.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.