Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 3–1 Ross County

Saturday 21 November 2020, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 15 · Half-time 1–1

Kilmarnock Brophy 14', Kabamba 68' (pen), Burke 90' · Findlay sent off 8'

Ross County Grivosti 42'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals31
xG2.121.87
Non-penalty xG1.331.87
Expected Points1.551.18

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 27%Ross County 30%

Most likely score 2–2, 13%. Final score 3–1, 7%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%1%3%8%8%5%2%4%7%2%2%7%8%5%2%2%3%1%11%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTFindlay (Kilmarnock), red card 8'Rossi on for Brophy, 46'Whitehall on for Kabamba, 85'Burke on for Pinnock, 86'McKay on for Tillson, 27'Watson on for Grivosti, 57'Hylton on for Paton, 69'Brophy 14'Kabamba 68' (pen)Burke 90'Grivosti 42'Kilmarnock 2.12Ross County 1.8701230153045607590HTFindlay (Kilmarnock), red card 8'Rossi on for Brophy, 46'Whitehall on for Kabamba, 85'Burke on for Pinnock, 86'McKay on for Tillson, 27'Watson on for Grivosti, 57'Hylton on for Paton, 69'Brophy 14'Kabamba 68' (pen)Burke 90'Grivosti 42'2.121.87KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

2.12 +1.19xG1.87 +0.84
1.33Non-penalty xG1.87
2.71 +1.68xG on target1.04 +0.45
12 +2.6Shots17 +7.0
6 +2.8Shots on target2 −0.7
3 +2.0Big chances2 +0.7
17 +3Touches in the opposition box21 +4
36% −8Possession64% +15
277 −79Passes490 +92
68% −2Pass accuracy83% +11
37% −6Field tilt63% +13
25 −12Final-third entries71 +32
11 +2.2Box entries15 +7.1
21.0 +6Passes per defensive action8.0 −6
4 −0.5Corners10 +6.1
15 +2Tackles17 +5
15 +5Interceptions6 −4
21 +2Clearances14 −10
1 −1.1Saves3 +0.4
10 −2Fouls17 +2
3 +0.9Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kabamba 64', 0.38 xGKabamba 18', 0.13 xGBroadfoot 70', 0.09 xGBroadfoot 78', 0.07 xGBrophy 16', 0.05 xGDicker 64', 0.05 xGBroadfoot 52', 0.04 xGPinnock 52', 0.03 xGPinnock 73', 0.03 xGBrophy 14', 0.36 xG, goalBurke 90+3', 0.10 xG, goal10%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals80%1.06 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.06 xG, 2 goals4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Stewart 75', 0.53 xGDonaldson 84', 0.17 xGHylton 84', 0.11 xGLakin 10', 0.08 xGHylton 83', 0.08 xGCharles-Cook 31', 0.07 xGStewart 60', 0.07 xGLakin 87', 0.06 xGKelly 74', 0.05 xGStewart 34', 0.04 xGReid 88', 0.04 xGKelly 17', 0.03 xGGrivosti 19', 0.03 xGKelly 41', 0.03 xGMcKay 45+1', 0.03 xGCharles-Cook 81', 0.03 xGGrivosti 42', 0.42 xG, goal66%1.23 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 1.23 xG, 1 goal14%0.26 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals16%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.38 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.06 12 shots, 0 goals
0.95 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.81 5 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
41 min (44%) · Kilmarnock 1.65, Ross County 0.18 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
53 min (56%) · Kilmarnock 0.47, Ross County 1.69 xG

Line-ups

2325173782719911RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayHaunstrupMcKenzieDickerTshibolaPinnockBrophyKabambaSent offYellow cardGoalGoal86'46'85'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer2112251643181722241927DoohanGrivostiDonaldsonIacovittiReidKellyCharles-CookTillsonPatonLakinStewartGoal57'27'69'Ross County 4-1-4-1Stuart Kettlewell

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Rossi for Brophy
  • 85' Whitehall for Kabamba
  • 86' Burke for Pinnock · goal 90'

Ross County substitutes

  • 27' McKay for Tillson
  • 57' Watson for Grivosti
  • 69' Hylton for Paton

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0441
McGowanRB900.000.0000.0127
BroadfootCB900.200.0000.0666
Findlay CB80.000.0000.0001
HaunstrupLB900.000.0300.0766
McKenzie RM900.000.2910.1523
DickerCM900.050.0910.05513
TshibolaCM9010.000.0730.1154
PinnockLM8610.050.5240.4265
BrophyST4610.410.010−0.0100
KabambaST8511.300.0010.0126
RossiDF440.000.0000.0125
WhitehallFW50.000.000−0.0200
BurkeMF410.100.0000.0501

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoohanGK900.000.0000.0103
GrivostiRB5710.450.0510.1365
DonaldsonCB900.170.0120.12115
IacovittiCB900.000.0310.1194
ReidLB900.040.2810.27101
KellyDM9010.110.7830.32123
Charles-CookRM900.100.2220.32115
TillsonCM270.000.0010.0210
PatonCM690.000.0310.0842
LakinLM900.140.0810.0655
StewartST900.640.011−0.0312
McKayFW630.030.0710.0621
WatsonDF330.000.0100.0431
HyltonFW210.190.0110.0311

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Grivosti and Donaldson: 3 passesGrivosti and Kelly: 3 passesGrivosti and Charles-Cook: 3 passesGrivosti and Paton: 3 passesDonaldson and Kelly: 3 passesKelly and Paton: 3 passesPaton and Lakin: 3 passesReid and Paton: 4 passesIacovitti and Donaldson: 5 passesReid and Lakin: 5 passesKelly and Stewart: 5 passesIacovitti and Reid: 8 passesReid and Kelly: 11 passesDoohan: 5 completed passesGrivosti: 8 completed passesIacovitti: 10 completed passesDonaldson: 9 completed passesReid: 18 completed passesKelly: 17 completed passesCharles-Cook: 5 completed passesPaton: 9 completed passesTillson: 7 completed passesLakin: 4 completed passesStewart: 9 completed passes2112162543181724221927DoohanGrivostiIacovittiDonaldsonReidKellyCharles-CookPatonTillsonLakinStewartStarters until 27' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
TshibolaHaunstrup11
BroadfootDicker8
HaunstrupPinnock8
HaunstrupTshibola7
PinnockHaunstrup7

Ross County

FromToPasses
IacovittiReid15
KellyReid14
DonaldsonKelly13
ReidLakin12
ReidIacovitti12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

6+3.25−0.813−0.56−2.38+2.018+11.88+0.78+1.59−0.35−3.86+2.95−0.22−2.23−1.82−3.11−1.96+2.91−1.70−2.91−2.91−0.93+1.21−0.52+1.10−2.21+0.40−0.21−0.10−0.52+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Ross County

6+1.44−2.65−4.54−1.87+0.15−1.09+1.97−2.85−3.44−1.43−1.93−0.85+0.75−1.12−2.63−0.47+4.140.06+1.42+0.21+0.12+1.11−0.56+4.20−0.60−0.44+3.71+0.51+0.39−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.01−0.010.010.030.030.030.020.030.020.100.010.020.18−0.03−0.020.41LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.030.020.020.020.050.040.010.070.010.070.100.090.090.03−0.01−0.010.050.150.19−0.010.010.280.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackKilmarnock0.98 → 1.05Ross County0.90 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.26 → 1.29Ross County1.56 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six38%46%+8
11th5%3%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
Ross County
Top six4%2%−2
11th27%31%+4
Bottom15%18%+3
Hamilton Academical
11th20%21%+1
Bottom62%61%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six45%43%−2
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (21 November 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.370.93
Win46%25%
Expected Points1.681.03
Clean sheet39%25%

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 29%Ross County 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%6%2%9%9%4%1%4%4%2%1%1%11%13%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 November 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Kilmarnock
Top six38%46%35%27%
11th5%3%6%8%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Ross County
Top six4%2%4%8%
11th27%31%27%22%
Bottom15%18%16%8%
Hamilton Academical
11th20%21%21%19%
Bottom62%61%61%65%
St. Johnstone
Top six45%43%46%47%
11th3%3%3%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61
  2. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80
  3. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50
  4. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53
  5. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49
  6. W2–119 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.88–1.57

Ross County

  1. D1–16 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.62–1.07
  2. L1–231 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.88–1.79
  3. L0–424 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.47–3.11
  4. D0–017 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.63–2.70
  5. L0–24 OctRangers (A)xG 0.46–2.00
  6. L0–327 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.46–3.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position6th9th
Played1314
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠73–⁠4–⁠7
Points14 (1.08 per game)13 (0.93 per game)
Expected Points per game1.010.89
Goals15–⁠159–⁠23
xG per game0.93–⁠1.521.03–⁠1.82
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 1.07–⁠1.550.86, 1.04–⁠2.10
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.82–⁠1.501.00, 1.02–⁠1.55
ManagerAlex Dyer (13)Stuart Kettlewell (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackKilmarnock0.98, 9thRoss County0.90, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.26, 6thRoss County1.56, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 0.98Ross County attack: 0.900.980.90Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.26Ross County defence: 1.561.561.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+11%−22%+24%
Counter-attacks−87%−74%−100%−45%
Set pieces−24%+27%−18%+17%
Penalties−26%+11%−31%+141%
Headers−40%−12%+15%−1%
Left side−10%+26%−12%+29%
Centre−49%+9%−37%+22%
Right side−23%+4%−11%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−10%+6%Centre−49%+22%Right side−23%+29%Open play−33%+24%Counter-attacks−87%−45%Set pieces−24%+17%Headers−40%−1%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−12%+4%Centre−37%+9%Right side−11%+26%Open play−22%+11%Counter-attacks−100%−74%Set pieces−18%+27%Headers+15%−12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

0.93xG1.03
1.52xG against1.82
44%Possession49%
9.4Shots10.0
15.0Shots against13.4
3.2Shots on target2.7
1.0Big chances1.3
14.2Touches in the opposition box16.5
356Passes398
70%Pass accuracy72%
4.5Corners3.9
44%Field tilt50%
37.2Final-third entries39.4
8.8Box entries7.9
14.9Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.931.50
Ahead200.891.94
Behind320.971.31

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.011.69
Ahead150.391.65
Behind311.372.09

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.221–4
16–300.210.274–4
31–450.200.163–1
46–600.170.203–1
61–750.120.272–1
76–900.160.402–4

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.331–2
16–300.140.253–3
31–450.170.231–3
46–600.160.340–6
61–750.180.401–6
76–900.220.273–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 12Eastwood 1Millen 9Rossi 3McGowan 1Broadfoot 13Findlay 11Dikamona 2Waters 13Power 10Kabamba 3McKenzie 1Dicker 12Kiltie 1Tshibola 12Burke 13Kabamba 9Brophy 4Kiltie 7McKenzie 2Pinnock 24-3-3 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (8), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 10Doohan 4Randall 9Charles-Cook 2Donaldson 1Donaldson 13Watson 1Iacovitti 12Grivosti 1Morris 1Reid 12Stewart 1Watson 1Vigurs 4Draper 4Iacovitti 2Gardyne 4Stewart 2Charles-Cook 2Paton 8Tillson 5Lakin 2Vigurs 7Gardyne 2Kelly 2Stewart 6Gardyne 5Paton 1McKay 6Stewart 5Shaw 34-1-4-1 in 4 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 August 2020Ross County2–2KilmarnockxG 2.02–1.06

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Ross County won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.06–2.02 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke131,074420.230.26
Kiltie8677220.200.08
Kabamba121,061400.180.02
Tshibola131,118200.120.04

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McKay7573100.310.13
Stewart141,256210.370.07
Charles-Cook5570000.220.08
Gardyne11917000.070.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.