Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Dundee United 1–5 St. Mirren

Wednesday 27 January 2021, 18:00 · Tannadice Park · Round 26 · Half-time 0–3

Dundee United Harkes 54'

St. Mirren Shaughnessy 30', McGrath 42' (pen), 45+1' (pen), Connolly 80', Dennis 85'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Goals15
xG1.233.25
Non-penalty xG1.231.68
Expected Points0.242.65

Dundee United 4%Draw 11%St. Mirren 85%

Most likely score 1–3, 15%. Final score 1–5, 4%.

St. Mirren goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+1%5%9%6%2%2%8%10%4%1%1%5%9%7%2%2%3%2%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTFotheringham on for Powers, 46'Appere on for Bolton, 72'Dennis on for Brophy, 56'Connolly on for Obika, 71'McAllister on for Durmus, 80'Harkes 54'Shaughnessy 30'McGrath 42' (pen)McGrath 45+1' (pen)Connolly 80'Dennis 85'St. Mirren 3.25Dundee United 1.23012340153045607590HTFotheringham on for Powers, 46'Appere on for Bolton, 72'Dennis on for Brophy, 56'Connolly on for Obika, 71'McAllister on for Durmus, 80'Harkes 54'Shaughnessy 30'McGrath 42' (pen)McGrath 45+1' (pen)Connolly 80'Dennis 85'3.251.23Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

1.23 +0.36xG3.25 +2.22
1.23Non-penalty xG1.68
1.00 +0.20xG on target3.18 +2.37
12 +3.2Shots19 +7.4
4 +1.5Shots on target6 +2.7
2 +1.0Big chances3 +2.0
22 +11Touches in the opposition box37 +19
55% +9Possession45% −2
387 +27Passes287 −74
71% +5Pass accuracy63% −5
49% +11Field tilt51% +8
44 +13Final-third entries31 −3
10 +2.8Box entries16 +8.0
10.8 −5Passes per defensive action10.3 −3
4 −0.1Corners11 +6.0
12 −2Tackles14 +1
15 +4Interceptions18 +7
28 +3Clearances8 −12
1 −2.5Saves3 −0.5
18 +5Fouls14 +2
2 +0.7Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Powers 23', 0.44 xGFotheringham 87', 0.29 xGClark 83', 0.07 xGShankland 25', 0.06 xGConnolly 29', 0.06 xGConnolly 69', 0.06 xGPowers 23', 0.05 xGShankland 28', 0.04 xGMcNulty 34', 0.04 xGShankland 46', 0.04 xGFotheringham 82', 0.04 xGHarkes 54', 0.04 xG, goal5%0.06 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals50%0.61 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.61 xG, 0 goals32%0.39 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.39 xG, 0 goals13%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

McCarthy 52', 0.08 xGDennis 66', 0.08 xGDurmus 63', 0.07 xGTait 7', 0.06 xGObika 7', 0.06 xGTait 15', 0.05 xGFlynn 63', 0.04 xGDurmus 64', 0.04 xGConnolly 77', 0.04 xGBrophy 1', 0.03 xGErhahon 27', 0.03 xGFlynn 45', 0.03 xGFlynn 47', 0.03 xGErhahon 20', 0.02 xGDennis 85', 0.82 xG, goalConnolly 80', 0.11 xG, goalShaughnessy 30', 0.08 xG, goal49%0.82 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.82 xG, 1 goal23%0.38 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal16%0.27 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.27 xG, 1 goal12%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

0.62 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.21 9 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 1 goal
0.61 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.36 7 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties1.58 2 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (33%) · Dundee United 0.65, St. Mirren 0.33 xG
St. Mirren ahead
61 min (67%) · Dundee United 0.58, St. Mirren 2.93 xG

Line-ups

19256174201023924MehmetSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonPowersBoltonClarkHarkesMcNultyShanklandYellow cardGoalYellow card46'72'Dundee United 4-1-4-1Micky Mellon1225421782511929AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMcGrathFlynnErhahonDurmusObikaBrophyGoalGoalGoalYellow card80'71'56'St. Mirren 4-4-2Jim Goodwin

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Fotheringham for Powers
  • 72' Appere for Bolton

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 56' Dennis for Brophy · goal 85', 1 assist
  • 71' Connolly for Obika · goal 80'
  • 80' McAllister for Durmus

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MehmetGK900.000.0000.0321
SmithRB900.000.0610.31107
Connolly CB900.120.0710.01918
ReynoldsCB900.000.0100.07811
RobsonLB900.000.1010.0946
PowersDM460.490.0100.0415
BoltonRM7210.000.0420.0542
ClarkCM900.070.432−0.0261
HarkesCM9010.040.0210.0015
McNultyLM900.040.103−0.0122
Shankland ST900.140.3000.2471
FotheringhamMF440.330.0100.0022
AppereFW180.000.0300.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0640
FraserRB900.000.0800.1449
McCarthyCB9010.080.1520.0826
ShaughnessyCB9010.080.0000.0233
TaitLB900.110.0200.0438
McGrathRM9021.580.4040.2495
FlynnCM9010.100.6310.2383
Erhahon CM900.050.0100.0354
DurmusLM800.120.0410.0933
ObikaST710.060.0010.0010
BrophyST560.030.010−0.0100
DennisFW34110.900.011−0.0120
ConnollyMF1910.150.0000.0510
McAllisterFW100.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Smith and Powers: 3 passesSmith and Harkes: 3 passesConnolly and Reynolds: 3 passesConnolly and Powers: 3 passesConnolly and Harkes: 3 passesReynolds and Clark: 3 passesReynolds and McNulty: 3 passesRobson and Harkes: 3 passesRobson and Shankland: 3 passesPowers and Bolton: 3 passesBolton and McNulty: 3 passesHarkes and Shankland: 3 passesSmith and Connolly: 5 passesSmith and Shankland: 5 passesPowers and McNulty: 5 passesHarkes and Clark: 5 passesRobson and Powers: 6 passesPowers and Harkes: 6 passesPowers and Clark: 6 passesPowers and Shankland: 6 passesClark and Shankland: 6 passesSmith and Clark: 10 passesMehmet: 7 completed passesSmith: 20 completed passesConnolly: 10 completed passesReynolds: 11 completed passesRobson: 10 completed passesPowers: 23 completed passesBolton: 5 completed passesHarkes: 13 completed passesClark: 17 completed passesMcNulty: 7 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passes19256174202310924MehmetSmithConnollyReynoldsRobsonPowersBoltonHarkesClarkMcNultyShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Fraser and Erhahon: 3 passesFraser and Brophy: 3 passesTait and McGrath: 3 passesTait and Erhahon: 3 passesMcGrath and Erhahon: 3 passesErhahon and Durmus: 3 passesFraser and McCarthy: 4 passesFraser and Flynn: 4 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 4 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 4 passesTait and Obika: 4 passesMcGrath and Flynn: 4 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 5 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 7 passesMcGrath and Brophy: 8 passesFraser and McGrath: 15 passesAlnwick: 8 completed passesFraser: 20 completed passesShaughnessy: 6 completed passesMcCarthy: 13 completed passesTait: 12 completed passesMcGrath: 22 completed passesFlynn: 10 completed passesErhahon: 10 completed passesDurmus: 3 completed passesObika: 4 completed passesBrophy: 6 completed passes1224521782511929AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitMcGrathFlynnErhahonDurmusObikaBrophyStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
ConnollyReynolds11
SmithClark8
ShanklandClark7
ReynoldsRobson6
SmithConnolly6

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserMcGrath12
McGrathFraser9
ErhahonTait8
McGrathMcCarthy5
McCarthyErhahon5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

6+0.79+2.026+9.314+6.89+1.810+3.64−3.66−0.911+3.49−0.813+8.14−1.311+6.95−0.24−1.52−2.33−0.41−1.42−0.70−3.41−1.00−1.32+1.12+0.53+1.20−0.61+0.90−0.41+0.70−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

St. Mirren

3−2.02−3.711+4.72−3.511+3.86−2.39+2.13−5.410+2.45+0.311+4.56+1.64−1.360.05+0.71−2.62−1.02−1.58+4.18+5.92+0.25+4.02−0.24+1.73+2.11+0.80−0.91+0.60−0.65−8.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.030.010.030.010.040.010.040.050.040.030.010.040.020.060.040.010.100.030.130.08−0.020.02−0.210.030.19LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.030.030.010.010.010.010.060.010.010.010.060.060.020.040.010.03−0.030.050.09−0.070.250.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackDundee United0.89 → 0.90St. Mirren0.91 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.25 → 1.36St. Mirren1.18 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six30%15%−15
11th3%5%+2
Bottom<1%1%+1
St. Mirren
Top six32%51%+19
11th5%2%−3
Bottom1%<1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six23%21%−2
St. Johnstone
Top six13%12%−1

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Expected goals0.980.95
Win34%33%
Expected Points1.361.32
Clean sheet38%38%

Dundee United 34%Draw 33%St. Mirren 33%

Most likely score 0–0, 15%. Both sides score 39%.

St. Mirren goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+7%2%6%2%7%7%3%1%2%2%1%15%13%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawSt. Mirren win
Dundee United
Top six30%47%26%15%
11th3%1%3%5%
Bottom<1%–<1%1%
St. Mirren
Top six32%18%30%51%
11th5%7%4%2%
Bottom1%2%2%<1%
Kilmarnock
Top six23%23%26%21%
St. Johnstone
Top six13%12%16%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. D0–016 JanHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.63–0.67
  2. D2–212 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.82–2.25
  3. D0–02 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.46–0.85
  4. L0–330 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.95–2.09
  5. D1–126 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.67–1.82
  6. W2–023 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.93–0.65

St. Mirren

  1. L0–116 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.30–1.06
  2. D1–19 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.85
  3. D1–12 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.52–0.97
  4. L0–230 DecRangers (H)xG 0.71–0.71
  5. W2–026 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.79–0.54
  6. L0–123 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.85–0.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
Position6th8th
Played2421
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠10–⁠86–⁠5–⁠10
Points28 (1.17 per game)23 (1.10 per game)
Expected Points per game0.971.23
Goals19–⁠2916–⁠24
xG per game0.87–⁠1.471.03–⁠1.22
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 0.89–⁠1.511.00, 1.25–⁠1.09
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.85–⁠1.431.18, 0.84–⁠1.34
ManagerMicky Mellon (24)Jim Goodwin (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackDundee United0.89, 11thSt. Mirren0.91, 10thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.25, 9thSt. Mirren1.18, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United attack: 0.89St. Mirren attack: 0.910.910.89St. MirrenDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanDundee United defence: 1.25St. Mirren defence: 1.181.251.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−27%+28%−26%+11%
Counter-attacks+50%+116%−53%−100%
Set pieces−46%+10%+11%−12%
Penalties−53%−77%−47%−47%
Headers−56%+20%−14%+15%
Left side−1%+32%−6%−1%
Centre−47%+12%−10%−19%
Right side−27%+46%−35%+37%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−1%+37%Centre−47%−19%Right side−27%−1%Open play−27%+11%Counter-attacks+50%−100%Set pieces−46%−12%Headers−56%+15%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdDundee United concededLeft side−6%+46%Centre−10%+12%Right side−35%+32%Open play−26%+28%Counter-attacks−53%+116%Set pieces+11%+10%Headers−14%+20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedSt. Mirren

0.87xG1.03
1.47xG against1.22
46%Possession47%
8.8Shots11.6
15.7Shots against12.3
2.5Shots on target3.3
1.0Big chances1.0
10.9Touches in the opposition box17.8
360Passes361
66%Pass accuracy67%
4.1Corners5.0
38%Field tilt44%
30.6Final-third entries34.4
7.2Box entries8.0
16.0Passes per defensive action13.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.681.23
Ahead171.111.42
Behind221.132.08

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.151.29
Ahead170.941.24
Behind340.941.13

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.143–3
16–300.180.174–5
31–450.110.283–5
46–600.170.224–3
61–750.050.360–6
76–900.210.305–7

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.193–2
16–300.160.262–8
31–450.180.192–5
46–600.110.232–3
61–750.100.221–5
76–900.310.146–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTSiegrist 23Mehmet 1Edwards 15Neilson 6L. Smith 5Connolly 19Reynolds 23Bolton 9L. Smith 8Chalmers 3Butcher 16Clark 6McNulty 1Pawlett 10Robson 8Powers 5Harkes 19Fuchs 5Robson 11Sporle 5Bolton 3Clark 12McNulty 7Chalmers 1Shankland 17Appere 6Robson 23-5-2 in 9 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-4-2 (8), 5-3-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 18Zlamal 3Fraser 19MacPherson 1Tait 1McCarthy 20Shaughnessy 18Foley 3Tait 1Tait 16Fraser 2Obika 2Connolly 7McAllister 7Morias 2McGrath 18MacPhers… 6MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 9Doyle-HayesObika 1Erhahon 14Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 6Mason 5Obika 3Erwin 8Obika 7Morias 34-5-1 in 8 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 November 2020St. Mirren0–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.38–0.20
19 September 2020Dundee United2–1St. MirrenxG 1.82–1.16

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 1, St. Mirren won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–1 and xG 1.01–1.27 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark181,519810.320.09
Shankland171,576410.200.10
Pawlett121,037100.140.14
Sporle7726110.120.16

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika131,200300.330.06
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin9916200.260.06
McGrath211,735310.160.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.