Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 3–1 Ross County

Sunday 10 January 2021, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 23 · Half-time 1–1

Livingston Robinson 9', Forrest 81', Hamilton 90+1'

Ross County Lakin 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonRoss County
Goals31
xG1.741.28
Expected Points1.700.98

Livingston 46%Draw 32%Ross County 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 3–1, 8%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+1%4%3%5%10%2%5%11%2%2%8%5%1%2%1%18%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Mullin, 68'Hamilton on for Robinson, 71'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Sibbald, 79'Charles-Cook on for Paton, 67'McKay on for Tillson, 74'Andreu on for Kelly and Vigurs on for Lakin, 84'Robinson 9'Forrest 81'Hamilton 90+1'Lakin 28'Livingston 1.74Ross County 1.2800.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Mullin, 68'Hamilton on for Robinson, 71'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Sibbald, 79'Charles-Cook on for Paton, 67'McKay on for Tillson, 74'Andreu on for Kelly and Vigurs on for Lakin, 84'Robinson 9'Forrest 81'Hamilton 90+1'Lakin 28'1.741.28LivingstonRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonRoss County

1.74 +0.48xG1.28 +0.32
1.38 +0.22xG on target0.70 +0.09
12 +1.6Shots6 −3.7
4 +1.0Shots on target2 −0.8
3 +1.5Big chances2 +0.9
18 −1Touches in the opposition box13 −2
52% +4Possession48% −1
343 −5Passes318 −79
65% +4Pass accuracy56% −16
60% +8Field tilt40% −8
25 −9Final-third entries18 −20
7 −2.1Box entries3 −4.5
13.3 +1Passes per defensive action13.0 −2
2 −3.0Corners1 −3.3
12 −4Tackles4 −9
14 +2Interceptions10 0
14 −5Clearances16 −8
1 −0.9Saves1 −2.0
12 −2Fouls17 +3
2 0.0Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Ambrose 46', 0.10 xGForrest 75', 0.06 xGAmbrose 36', 0.05 xGBrown 41', 0.05 xGDevlin 54', 0.05 xGRobinson 60', 0.05 xGSibbald 54', 0.04 xGPittman 13', 0.03 xGHolt 61', 0.03 xGHamilton 90+1', 0.71 xG, goalForrest 81', 0.35 xG, goalRobinson 9', 0.21 xG, goal41%0.71 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.71 xG, 1 goal35%0.61 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.61 xG, 1 goal3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals21%0.36 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.36 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Shaw 34', 0.73 xGWatson 55', 0.12 xGAndreu 87', 0.07 xGMcKay 83', 0.05 xGPaton 28', 0.03 xGLakin 28', 0.27 xG, goal66%0.85 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.85 xG, 0 goals31%0.40 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonRoss County

1.55 8 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.11 4 shots, 1 goal
0.19 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.17 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
62 min (67%) · Livingston 0.99, Ross County 0.85 xG
Livingston ahead
30 min (33%) · Livingston 0.74, Ross County 0.43 xG

Line-ups

322252736181481017StryjekDevlinAmbroseGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanSibbaldRobinsonYellow cardGoal68'79'71'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale1231525162219186248LaidlawNaismithWatsonDonaldsonIacovittiTillsonLakinKellyDraperPatonShawYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card74'84'84'67'Ross County 4-1-4-1John Hughes

Livingston substitutes

  • 68' Forrest for Mullin · goal 81', 1 assist
  • 71' Hamilton for Robinson · goal 90+1'
  • 79' Emmanuel-Thomas for Sibbald

Ross County substitutes

  • 67' Charles-Cook for Paton · yellow card 81'
  • 74' McKay for Tillson
  • 84' Andreu for Kelly
  • 84' Vigurs for Lakin

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0450
DevlinRB9010.050.3320.35104
AmbroseCB900.150.0000.0426
GuthrieCB900.000.0000.0326
BrownLB900.050.0300.0236
BartleyDM900.000.0500.0723
Holt DM900.030.0300.0185
MullinRW680.000.102−0.0101
PittmanAM9010.030.203−0.0113
SibbaldLW790.040.0800.1253
RobinsonST7110.260.010−0.0300
ForrestFW22110.410.6310.1412
HamiltonFW1910.710.0700.0000
Emmanuel-ThomasFW110.000.0000.0011

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0242
NaismithRB900.000.4610.1931
WatsonCB900.120.0100.0333
DonaldsonCB900.000.0100.09810
Iacovitti LB900.000.0000.0124
Tillson DM740.000.000−0.0112
LakinRM8410.270.132−0.0111
KellyCM840.000.020−0.0214
Draper CM900.000.030−0.0504
Paton LM6710.030.0010.0010
ShawST900.730.0100.0031
Charles-Cook FW230.000.030−0.0521
McKayFW160.050.0100.0210
AndreuMF60.070.0000.0000
VigursMF60.000.000−0.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Stryjek and Brown: 4 passesStryjek and Sibbald: 4 passesAmbrose and Bartley: 4 passesAmbrose and Mullin: 4 passesBrown and Mullin: 4 passesBartley and Holt: 4 passesBartley and Mullin: 4 passesStryjek and Guthrie: 5 passesDevlin and Holt: 5 passesDevlin and Robinson: 5 passesPittman and Sibbald: 5 passesSibbald and Robinson: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 6 passesDevlin and Ambrose: 7 passesDevlin and Mullin: 7 passesDevlin and Pittman: 7 passesAmbrose and Holt: 7 passesGuthrie and Brown: 8 passesGuthrie and Holt: 8 passesDevlin and Bartley: 9 passesAmbrose and Guthrie: 9 passesBrown and Holt: 9 passesHolt and Sibbald: 9 passesStryjek and Ambrose: 10 passesStryjek: 15 completed passesDevlin: 23 completed passesAmbrose: 23 completed passesGuthrie: 19 completed passesBrown: 20 completed passesBartley: 12 completed passesHolt: 30 completed passesMullin: 12 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesSibbald: 17 completed passesRobinson: 8 completed passes322252736181481017StryjekDevlinAmbroseGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanSibbaldRobinsonStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Lakin: 3 passesNaismith and Kelly: 3 passesNaismith and Shaw: 3 passesDonaldson and Iacovitti: 3 passesDonaldson and Tillson: 3 passesDonaldson and Paton: 3 passesIacovitti and Shaw: 3 passesLakin and Draper: 3 passesKelly and Paton: 3 passesKelly and Shaw: 3 passesLaidlaw and Watson: 4 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 4 passesLaidlaw and Kelly: 4 passesNaismith and Watson: 4 passesWatson and Tillson: 4 passesDonaldson and Draper: 4 passesTillson and Paton: 4 passesLakin and Shaw: 4 passesIacovitti and Paton: 5 passesLaidlaw and Donaldson: 6 passesIacovitti and Draper: 6 passesWatson and Donaldson: 7 passesNaismith and Lakin: 11 passesLaidlaw: 18 completed passesNaismith: 15 completed passesWatson: 14 completed passesDonaldson: 17 completed passesIacovitti: 15 completed passesTillson: 15 completed passesLakin: 11 completed passesDraper: 11 completed passesKelly: 5 completed passesPaton: 10 completed passesShaw: 10 completed passes1231525162219618248LaidlawNaismithWatsonDonaldsonIacovittiTillsonLakinDraperKellyPatonShawStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
AmbroseStryjek8
SibbaldHolt7
BrownHolt6
BartleyDevlin6
BrownGuthrie5

Ross County

FromToPasses
NaismithLakin8
WatsonNaismith6
WatsonDonaldson5
LaidlawDonaldson5
DonaldsonWatson5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

5−0.27−3.71−4.32−3.011+2.86−0.94−2.55−2.89−0.58+2.76+0.83−1.24−1.37+0.36+1.53−1.22−1.010+6.36+1.92−1.00−2.41−0.13+1.57+4.60−1.60−0.50−0.70−0.62+0.90−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Ross County

2−3.26−0.25−3.66+0.810+2.42−4.72−5.84−5.312+4.22−2.86+1.23−0.77+2.07+1.24−0.32−1.20−2.55+1.52−2.42+0.21−0.21−0.12+0.40−2.00−0.70−0.30−0.50−0.60−0.77−8.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.010.020.020.020.020.020.010.040.010.040.020.030.030.05−0.010.100.01−0.060.090.060.25LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.01−0.010.010.030.01−0.01−0.01−0.120.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.07 → 1.11Ross County0.85 → 0.87Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.13 → 1.15Ross County1.53 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six82%89%+7
11th<1%<1%0
Ross County
Top six<1%<1%0
11th35%35%0
Bottom38%45%+7
Hamilton Academical
11th31%34%+3
Bottom50%46%−4
Dundee United
Top six36%34%−2
11th3%2%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (10 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonRoss County
Expected goals1.470.87
Win51%21%
Expected Points1.800.92
Clean sheet42%23%

Livingston 51%Draw 28%Ross County 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%2%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%2%10%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawRoss County win
Livingston
Top six82%89%78%69%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Ross County
Top six<1%<1%<1%1%
11th35%35%36%35%
Bottom38%45%38%25%
Hamilton Academical
11th31%34%30%24%
Bottom50%46%50%58%
Dundee United
Top six36%34%37%39%
11th3%2%3%4%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. W3–02 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.18–0.49
  2. W2–126 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–1.22
  3. W2–023 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 2.20–0.05
  4. W2–112 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–1.05
  5. W2–05 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.20–0.42
  6. L0–121 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.46–0.39

Ross County

  1. D1–12 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.81–1.57
  2. W2–030 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.69–1.42
  3. L0–226 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.54–1.79
  4. L0–223 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.15
  5. L0–219 DecHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.91–0.80
  6. L0–212 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.80–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonRoss County
Position5th12th
Played2022
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠3–⁠94–⁠5–⁠13
Points27 (1.35 per game)17 (0.77 per game)
Expected Points per game1.450.83
Goals25–⁠2613–⁠39
xG per game1.26–⁠1.090.96–⁠1.81
Home: points, xG per game1.11, 1.07–⁠1.300.64, 0.94–⁠2.01
Away: points, xG per game1.55, 1.42–⁠0.920.91, 0.98–⁠1.61
ManagerDavid Martindale (5)John Hughes (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.16AttackLivingston1.07, 5thRoss County0.85, 12thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.13, 6thRoss County1.53, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston attack: 1.07Ross County attack: 0.851.070.85Ross CountyLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston defence: 1.13Ross County defence: 1.531.531.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%−29%−19%+32%
Counter-attacks−100%−71%−74%−43%
Set pieces+17%+14%−25%+35%
Penalties−21%+6%−52%+116%
Headers+7%−2%average+23%
Left side−15%−37%−22%+23%
Centre+23%−8%−28%+49%
Right side−23%−17%−13%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdRoss County concededLeft side−15%+5%Centre+23%+49%Right side−23%+23%Open play−2%+32%Counter-attacks−100%−43%Set pieces+17%+35%Headers+7%+23%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdLivingston concededLeft side−22%−17%Centre−28%−8%Right side−13%−37%Open play−19%−29%Counter-attacks−74%−71%Set pieces−25%+14%Headersaverage−2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonRoss County

1.26xG0.96
1.09xG against1.81
48%Possession49%
10.4Shots9.7
9.3Shots against13.9
3.0Shots on target2.8
1.5Big chances1.1
18.7Touches in the opposition box15.1
348Passes397
61%Pass accuracy72%
5.0Corners4.3
52%Field tilt48%
34.1Final-third entries38.5
9.1Box entries7.5
12.6Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.101.01
Ahead171.250.98
Behind291.521.28

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.871.77
Ahead130.511.78
Behind361.231.87

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.104–2
16–300.260.222–9
31–450.130.232–5
46–600.230.228–8
61–750.250.155–0
76–900.220.174–2

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.301–4
16–300.140.295–7
31–450.150.172–3
46–600.140.340–8
61–750.180.441–10
76–900.210.284–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 10McCrorie 10Devlin 18Robinson 1Ambrose 1Ambrose 7Fitzwater 6Guthrie 19Brown 6Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 12Ambrose 2Brown 2Bartley 16Pittman 2Holt 10Sibbald 9Forrest 2Mullin 6Robinson 5Pittman 3Pittman 13Bartley 3Holt 1Forrest 12Sibbald 4Robinson 1Emmanuel-Thomas 5Tiffoney 3Dykes 34-2-3-1 in 11 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 17Doohan 5Randall 10Watson 4Charles-Cook 2Donaldson 18Watson 3Iacovitti 17Morris 5Grivosti 1Reid 17Watson 1Lakin 1Vigurs 8Draper 4Iacovitti 3Paton 4Gardyne 4Charles-Cook 3Paton 11Tillson 8Gardyne 4Vigurs 9Kelly 6Stewart 6Gardyne 6Hylton 3Stewart 9Shaw 7McKay 64-1-4-1 in 7 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (7), 4-5-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 November 2020Ross County1–1LivingstonxG 0.62–1.07
29 August 2020Livingston1–0Ross CountyxG 1.31–0.38

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Ross County won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–1 and xG 1.19–0.50 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest141,228300.180.21
Emmanuel-Thomas5497100.340.04
Robinson111,031310.190.10
Mullin6541220.070.19

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart191,650210.370.06
McKay8793100.250.11
Kelly8838020.100.23
Gardyne141,194000.070.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.