Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 29 August 2020, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 6 · Half-time 0–0

Livingston Guthrie 64'

Ross County Tremarco sent off 51'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonRoss County
Goals10
xG1.310.38
Expected Points2.190.53

Livingston 64%Draw 28%Ross County 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 27%. Final score 1–0, 27%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+14%5%13%2%19%8%1%6%2%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTremarco (Ross County), second yellow card 51'Holt on for Sibbald, 52'Tiffoney on for Lokotsch, 81'Reid on for McKay, 56'Mullin on for Randall, 57'Kelly on for Gardyne, Tillson on for Draper, and Shaw on for Vigurs, 75'Guthrie 64'Livingston 1.31Ross County 0.3800.511.50153045607590HTTremarco (Ross County), second yellow card 51'Holt on for Sibbald, 52'Tiffoney on for Lokotsch, 81'Reid on for McKay, 56'Mullin on for Randall, 57'Kelly on for Gardyne, Tillson on for Draper, and Shaw on for Vigurs, 75'Guthrie 64'1.310.38LivingstonRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonRoss County

1.31 +0.17xG0.38 −1.32
0.67 −0.32xG on target0.06 −0.91
9 −1Shots4 −9
3 +0.2Shots on target1 −2.6
2 +1.2Big chances0 −2.4
64% +16Possession36% −18
471 +145Passes271 −160
78% +18Pass accuracy64% −9
80% +32Field tilt20% −37
54 +19Final-third entries13 −26
16 +7.8Box entries3 −5.2
8.2 −3Passes per defensive action21.4 +11
14 +10.2Corners5 +1.4
13 −4Tackles9 −5
7 −4.0Interceptions12 +2.2
14 −8Clearances53 +30
1 −1.2Saves2 −1.0
15 0Fouls16 0
4 +3.6Offsides4 +2.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Pittman 7', 0.55 xGLokotsch 42', 0.27 xGTiffoney 83', 0.19 xGLokotsch 69', 0.09 xGSerrano 69', 0.04 xGSerrano 59', 0.03 xGSerrano 27', 0.02 xGHolt 70', 0.02 xGGuthrie 64', 0.10 xG, goal64%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.84 xG, 1 goal27%0.36 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

McKay 45+1', 0.15 xGMcKay 43', 0.11 xGMcKay 3', 0.06 xGVigurs 22', 0.05 xG41%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals46%0.17 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals14%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonRoss County

1.14 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.17 2 shots, 0 goals
0.17 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.21 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
65 min (71%) · Livingston 0.97, Ross County 0.38 xG
Livingston ahead
26 min (29%) · Livingston 0.34, Ross County 0.00 xG

Line-ups

122527126101781113McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoBartleySibbaldRobinsonPittmanForrestLokotschGoalYellow card52'81'Livingston 4-2-3-1Gary Holt1251516276113927LaidlawDonaldsonWatsonIacovittiRandallGardyneDraperVigursTremarcoMcKayStewartYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow57'75'75'75'56'Ross County 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell

Livingston substitutes

  • 52' Holt for Sibbald
  • 81' Tiffoney for Lokotsch

Ross County substitutes

  • 56' Reid for McKay
  • 57' Mullin for Randall
  • 75' Tillson for Draper
  • 75' Shaw for Vigurs
  • 75' Kelly for Gardyne

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0211
DevlinRB900.000.3010.27103
AmbroseCB900.000.0400.0093
GuthrieCB9010.100.0100.0659
Serrano LB9010.090.1420.30142
BartleyDM900.000.0600.0862
SibbaldDM520.000.020−0.0122
RobinsonRW900.000.040−0.0102
PittmanAM900.550.031−0.1112
ForrestLW900.000.5730.2654
LokotschST810.360.0100.0403
HoltMF380.020.0400.0692
TiffoneyFW90.190.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0122
Donaldson CB900.000.0000.05416
WatsonCB900.000.0300.0528
IacovittiCB900.000.0000.05422
RandallRWB570.000.0000.0115
Gardyne CM750.000.0000.0310
Draper CM750.000.0000.0016
VigursCM750.050.131−0.0111
Tremarco LWB510.000.0200.0713
McKayST560.320.000−0.0100
StewartST900.000.1720.0703
ReidDF340.000.0000.0006
MullinMF330.000.0000.0000
TillsonMF150.000.000−0.0200
ShawFW150.000.000−0.0101
KellyMF150.000.0000.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Devlin and Sibbald: 4 passesGuthrie and Forrest: 4 passesSerrano and Bartley: 4 passesDevlin and Forrest: 5 passesAmbrose and Sibbald: 5 passesAmbrose and Forrest: 5 passesGuthrie and Sibbald: 5 passesBartley and Sibbald: 5 passesSibbald and Forrest: 5 passesMcCrorie and Ambrose: 6 passesMcCrorie and Serrano: 6 passesDevlin and Robinson: 6 passesAmbrose and Serrano: 6 passesBartley and Robinson: 6 passesDevlin and Ambrose: 7 passesDevlin and Pittman: 8 passesAmbrose and Pittman: 8 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 9 passesSerrano and Sibbald: 9 passesAmbrose and Guthrie: 10 passesSerrano and Forrest: 12 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesDevlin: 22 completed passesAmbrose: 31 completed passesGuthrie: 23 completed passesSerrano: 24 completed passesBartley: 13 completed passesSibbald: 22 completed passesRobinson: 7 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesForrest: 16 completed passesLokotsch: 3 completed passes122527126101781113McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoBartleySibbaldRobinsonPittmanForrestLokotschStarters until 52' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Watson: 3 passesDonaldson and Vigurs: 3 passesDonaldson and McKay: 3 passesWatson and Draper: 3 passesWatson and Vigurs: 3 passesIacovitti and Draper: 3 passesRandall and Vigurs: 3 passesRandall and McKay: 3 passesGardyne and Stewart: 3 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 4 passesLaidlaw and Stewart: 4 passesDonaldson and Watson: 4 passesDonaldson and Gardyne: 4 passesRandall and Stewart: 4 passesTremarco and Gardyne: 4 passesDonaldson and Randall: 5 passesWatson and Iacovitti: 6 passesIacovitti and Vigurs: 6 passesTremarco and Vigurs: 6 passesVigurs and McKay: 6 passesStewart and McKay: 6 passesVigurs and Gardyne: 8 passesLaidlaw: 10 completed passesDonaldson: 10 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesIacovitti: 12 completed passesRandall: 12 completed passesTremarco: 7 completed passesDraper: 6 completed passesVigurs: 22 completed passesGardyne: 11 completed passesStewart: 9 completed passesMcKay: 11 completed passes1251516236117279LaidlawDonaldsonWatsonIacovittiRandallTremarcoDraperVigursGardyneStewartMcKayStarters until 51' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
GuthrieAmbrose19
AmbroseGuthrie15
ForrestSerrano12
GuthrieSerrano11
DevlinAmbrose11

Ross County

FromToPasses
WatsonDonaldson7
LaidlawStewart7
LaidlawIacovitti6
VigursGardyne6
VigursIacovitti6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

10+5.82−4.24−0.66+1.07−0.22−5.07+0.49+1.410+3.04−2.24−1.84−0.82−2.86+0.63−0.24−0.67+3.48+5.49+4.03+0.42−0.41−0.610.01−2.03+1.20−1.41+0.20−0.22+0.87−7.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Ross County

11+5.88+2.627+13.818+8.29+2.07−2.07+1.46−0.411+2.611+1.64−2.62−3.04−1.03−1.22−4.44−2.23+0.62−1.82−1.83−3.00−1.610.00−1.00−2.23+1.210.00−0.40−0.41+0.42+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.030.020.030.04−0.010.060.030.030.040.050.020.060.040.030.120.020.03−0.060.01−0.02−0.100.080.230.18LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.010.02−0.010.010.010.04−0.010.030.020.06LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.95AttackLivingston0.83 → 0.80Ross County0.88 → 0.79Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.26 → 1.17Ross County1.13 → 1.12

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six18%27%+9
11th16%12%−4
Bottom15%8%−7
Ross County
Top six47%36%−11
11th6%8%+2
Bottom3%5%+2
Aberdeen
Top six85%86%+1

From the forecast before the match (29 August 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonRoss County
Expected goals1.081.20
Win32%38%
Expected Points1.261.44
Clean sheet30%34%

Livingston 32%Draw 30%Ross County 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Ross County goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%1%6%7%4%2%2%3%2%11%12%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 August 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawRoss County win
Livingston
Top six18%27%16%11%
11th16%12%16%20%
Bottom15%8%16%19%
Ross County
Top six47%36%44%59%
11th6%8%7%3%
Bottom3%5%3%2%
Aberdeen
Top six85%86%86%83%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L1–223 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.62–2.15
  2. D0–016 AugRangers (H)xG 0.07–1.11
  3. D2–212 AugMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–0.50
  4. L1–48 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.42–3.83
  5. L0–11 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.55–1.04

Ross County

  1. D1–122 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.21–1.31
  2. L1–215 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.42–1.34
  3. D2–212 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 2.02–1.06
  4. W1–08 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.50–0.45
  5. W1–03 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.33–1.96

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonRoss County
Position12th3rd
Played55
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠2–⁠32–⁠2–⁠1
Points2 (0.40 per game)8 (1.60 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.72
Goals4–⁠96–⁠5
xG per game1.14–⁠1.731.70–⁠1.22
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 0.74–⁠2.471.33, 1.59–⁠1.45
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 1.40–⁠1.232.00, 1.85–⁠0.88
ManagerGary Holt (5)Stuart Kettlewell (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.95AttackLivingston0.83, 6thRoss County0.88, 5thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.26, 11thRoss County1.13, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug23 AugLivingston attack: 0.83Ross County attack: 0.880.880.83Ross CountyLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug23 AugLivingston defence: 1.26Ross County defence: 1.131.261.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+9%+15%−4%
Counter-attacks−83%−54%−83%average
Set pieces−33%+52%+33%−12%
Penalties+97%+97%+97%+7%
Headers−45%+55%+62%average
Left side−43%−15%+33%+5%
Centre+2%+56%−12%−19%
Right side−51%−16%+54%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdRoss County concededLeft side−43%+8%Centre+2%−19%Right side−51%+5%Open play−16%−4%Counter-attacks−83%averageSet pieces−33%−12%Headers−45%average

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdLivingston concededLeft side+33%−16%Centre−12%+56%Right side+54%−15%Open play+15%+9%Counter-attacks−83%−54%Set pieces+33%+52%Headers+62%+55%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonRoss County

1.14xG1.70
1.73xG against1.22
48%Possession54%
10.2Shots12.6
12.4Shots against12.2
2.8Shots on target3.6
0.8Big chances2.4
326Passes431
59%Pass accuracy73%
3.8Corners3.6
48%Field tilt56%
35.2Final-third entries38.8
8.2Box entries8.2
11.3Passes per defensive action10.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.421.31
Ahead0––
Behind412.002.22

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.880.76
Ahead270.402.01
Behind163.321.26

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.081–1
16–300.050.280–2
31–450.100.380–3
46–600.260.291–2
61–750.340.302–0
76–900.150.380–1

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.121–1
16–300.300.112–0
31–450.190.230–1
46–600.200.240–1
61–750.260.301–1
76–900.410.222–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMcCrorie 4Stryjek 1Fitzwater 5Guthrie 5Pittman 2Taylor-Sinclair 2Brown 1Devlin 4Robinson 1Bartley 5Sibbald 3Forrest 2McMillan 2Ambrose 2Brown 1Pittman 3Holt 1Robinson 2Forrest 2Sibbald 2Dykes 3Holt 1Hamilton 13-4-2-1 in 3 of 5 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 5Randall 5Donaldson 5Iacovitti 5Reid 5Draper 3Tillson 2Paton 1Vigurs 4Gardyne 2Erwin 2Mullin 1Paton 3Vigurs 1Charles-Cook 1Stewart 4Gardyne 1McKay 4Stewart 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Pittman5450100.200.06
Guthrie5450000.040.07

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Iacovitti5450000.040.01
Laidlaw5450000.000.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.