Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Johnstone 0–1 Hibernian

Saturday 30 July 2022, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 1 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 5,739

St. Johnstone Davidson sent off 58'

Hibernian Campbell 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneHibernian
Goals01
xG0.150.78
Expected Points0.651.89

St. Johnstone 6%Draw 46%Hibernian 47%

Most likely score 0–0, 41%. Final score 0–1, 31%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+12%2%6%6%2%41%31%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTDavidson (St. Johnstone), red card 58'May on for Bair and MacPherson on for Murphy, 61'Brown on for Hallberg, 85'Doidge on for Melkersen and Mitchell on for Tavares, 69'Campbell on for Cadden, 78'Doyle-Hayes on for Kenneh, 89'Campbell 90'Hibernian 0.78St. Johnstone 0.1500.250.50.7510153045607590HTDavidson (St. Johnstone), red card 58'May on for Bair and MacPherson on for Murphy, 61'Brown on for Hallberg, 85'Doidge on for Melkersen and Mitchell on for Tavares, 69'Campbell on for Cadden, 78'Doyle-Hayes on for Kenneh, 89'Campbell 90'0.780.15St. JohnstoneHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneHibernian

0.15xG0.78
0.09xG on target0.11
4Shots14
1Shots on target1
0Big chances1
32%Possession68%
211Passes444
61%Pass accuracy81%
16%Field tilt84%
12Final-third entries48
2Box entries17
17.0Passes per defensive action8.1
3Corners9
25Tackles10
10Interceptions5
29Clearances7
0Saves1
12Fouls15
1Offsides4

Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

Murphy 47', 0.09 xGMcGowan 67', 0.03 xGBair 15', 0.02 xGCarey 66', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals80%0.12 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals13%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals7%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Henderson 27', 0.17 xGYouan 51', 0.15 xGMelkersen 3', 0.06 xGCabraja 51', 0.06 xGTavares 30', 0.04 xGHenderson 64', 0.04 xGKenneh 8', 0.03 xGHenderson 49', 0.03 xGKenneh 74', 0.03 xGCabraja 74', 0.03 xGTavares 13', 0.02 xGMelkersen 14', 0.02 xGCabraja 65', 0.02 xGCampbell 90', 0.07 xG, goal9%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 1 goal58%0.45 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals25%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneHibernian

0.12 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.56 8 shots, 0 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.21 6 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
90 min (96%) · St. Johnstone 0.15, Hibernian 0.78 xG
Hibernian ahead
4 min (4%) · St. Johnstone 0.00, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

113541422819232917MatthewsMcGowanMitchellConsidineWrightHallbergDavidsonMontgomeryCareyMurphyBairYellow cardSent off85'61'61'St. Johnstone 3-4-2-1Callum Davidson112335361120181023MarshallCaddenBushiriPorteousCabrajaKennehNewellMelkersenHendersonTavaresYouanYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card78'89'69'69'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 61' MacPherson for Murphy · yellow card 89'
  • 61' May for Bair
  • 85' Brown for Hallberg

Hibernian substitutes

  • 69' Doidge for Melkersen
  • 69' Mitchell for Tavares
  • 78' Campbell for Cadden · goal 90'
  • 89' Doyle-Hayes for Kenneh

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0000.0233
McGowanCB900.030.0000.0329
MitchellCB900.000.0000.0105
ConsidineCB900.000.0000.02112
Wright RWB900.000.0110.0226
HallbergCM850.000.0210.0126
Davidson CM580.000.000−0.0208
MontgomeryLWB900.000.0010.0029
CareyAM900.010.0000.0133
MurphyAM610.090.0200.0231
BairST610.020.000−0.0202
MacPherson MF290.000.0000.0113
MayFW290.000.0000.0000
BrownDF50.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0100
CaddenRB780.000.0500.12121
Bushiri CB900.000.010−0.1333
PorteousCB900.000.0200.1292
Cabraja LB900.110.1830.52185
KennehDM890.060.032−0.0215
NewellDM900.000.3130.0673
Melkersen RW690.080.0100.0120
Henderson AM9010.240.171−0.0552
TavaresLW690.060.0100.0510
YouanST900.150.020−0.0210
DoidgeFW210.000.0000.0010
MitchellMF210.000.0100.0320
CampbellMF1210.070.000−0.0101
Doyle-HayesMF10.000.0000.0120

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Matthews and Murphy: 3 passesMatthews and Bair: 3 passesMcGowan and Bair: 3 passesMitchell and Wright: 3 passesMitchell and Davidson: 3 passesConsidine and Bair: 3 passesWright and Murphy: 3 passesHallberg and Carey: 3 passesMurphy and Bair: 3 passesMcGowan and Hallberg: 4 passesMitchell and Considine: 4 passesWright and Bair: 4 passesMontgomery and Davidson: 4 passesConsidine and Montgomery: 5 passesConsidine and Davidson: 5 passesMontgomery and Carey: 5 passesCarey and Murphy: 5 passesMatthews and Considine: 6 passesWright and Hallberg: 6 passesMontgomery and Murphy: 6 passesMatthews: 10 completed passesMcGowan: 6 completed passesMitchell: 4 completed passesConsidine: 14 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesMontgomery: 14 completed passesHallberg: 12 completed passesDavidson: 12 completed passesCarey: 10 completed passesMurphy: 12 completed passesBair: 6 completed passes113541419228232917MatthewsMcGowanMitchellConsidineWrightMontgomeryHallbergDavidsonCareyMurphyBairStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Cadden: 4 passesCadden and Youan: 4 passesBushiri and Henderson: 4 passesNewell and Kenneh: 4 passesNewell and Henderson: 4 passesMarshall and Cabraja: 5 passesHenderson and Youan: 5 passesPorteous and Kenneh: 6 passesMelkersen and Henderson: 6 passesCadden and Kenneh: 7 passesPorteous and Henderson: 7 passesCadden and Bushiri: 8 passesCadden and Newell: 8 passesKenneh and Henderson: 8 passesCadden and Porteous: 9 passesBushiri and Kenneh: 10 passesMarshall and Porteous: 11 passesBushiri and Porteous: 11 passesCabraja and Tavares: 11 passesCabraja and Newell: 13 passesCabraja and Kenneh: 14 passesCabraja and Youan: 17 passesCadden and Melkersen: 18 passesCadden and Henderson: 19 passesPorteous and Cabraja: 29 passesMarshall: 17 completed passesCadden: 41 completed passesBushiri: 24 completed passesPorteous: 40 completed passesCabraja: 53 completed passesNewell: 21 completed passesKenneh: 30 completed passesMelkersen: 8 completed passesHenderson: 28 completed passesTavares: 6 completed passesYouan: 11 completed passes112335311620181023MarshallCaddenBushiriPorteousCabrajaNewellKennehMelkersenHendersonTavaresYouanStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
HallbergMcGowan5
MontgomeryCarey5
MitchellWright4
CareyMontgomery4
MontgomeryConsidine4

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousCabraja18
CabrajaPorteous14
CaddenMelkersen14
CabrajaYouan13
HendersonCadden12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

3781171125682281041011221217LessMore

Hibernian

53621236288444462122222112LessMore

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.010.010.010.01−0.010.010.01−0.01−0.010.010.01−0.020.010.020.02LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.050.030.030.030.030.040.090.070.090.020.100.03−0.010.010.02−0.310.050.090.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.17AttackSt. Johnstone0.83 → 0.82Hibernian1.11 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.33 → 1.33Hibernian1.08 → 1.06

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six14%9%−5
11th19%20%+1
Bottom22%27%+5
Hibernian
Top six72%79%+7
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 July 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHibernian
Expected goals0.921.14
Win29%40%
Expected Points1.171.52
Clean sheet32%40%

St. Johnstone 29%Draw 31%Hibernian 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%3%8%3%5%6%4%1%2%2%1%13%14%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 July 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawHibernian win
St. Johnstone
Top six14%21%13%9%
11th19%17%18%20%
Bottom22%15%22%27%
Hibernian
Top six72%63%70%79%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–415 MayHibernian (A)xG 0.51–1.99
  2. W1–011 MayAberdeen (H)xG 0.68–0.28
  3. D1–17 MayLivingston (A)xG 1.21–1.25
  4. L0–130 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.25–0.87
  5. D1–123 AprDundee FC (A)xG 1.12–0.37
  6. L0–79 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.06–4.73

Hibernian

  1. W4–015 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.99–0.51
  2. L1–310 MayDundee FC (A)xG 0.99–1.48
  3. D1–17 MayAberdeen (H)xG 2.02–0.63
  4. L0–130 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.32
  5. W1–023 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.72–0.69
  6. L1–39 AprHearts (A)xG 0.52–0.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.17AttackSt. Johnstone0.83, 12thHibernian1.11, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.33, 9thHibernian1.08, 3rd

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−51%−1%average−22%
Counter-attacks−80%+172%+82%+15%
Set pieces−34%+2%−31%−8%
Penalties−44%+31%−6%−6%
Headers−48%+1%−24%−1%
Left side−39%+12%−1%−8%
Centre−54%+5%−10%−19%
Right side−44%+9%+3%−23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHibernian concededLeft side−39%−23%Centre−54%−19%Right side−44%−8%Open play−51%−22%Counter-attacks−80%+15%Set pieces−34%−8%Headers−48%−1%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−1%+9%Centre−10%+5%Right side+3%+12%Open playaverage−1%Counter-attacks+82%+172%Set pieces−31%+2%Headers−24%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 May 2022Hibernian4–0St. JohnstonexG 1.99–0.51
5 March 2022Hibernian0–0St. JohnstonexG 0.99–0.44
27 November 2021St. Johnstone1–2HibernianxG 0.12–2.27
26 September 2021Hibernian1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.90–0.22
1 May 2021Hibernian0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.08–0.73
6 March 2021St. Johnstone1–0HibernianxG 0.29–1.03

8 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 2, Hibernian won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 5–10 and xG 0.48–1.54 per game.