Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Rangers

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 20:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 11

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals1.271.44
Win33%40%
Expected Points1.251.48
Clean sheet24%28%

Hearts 33%Draw 27%Rangers 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%9%7%3%1%8%9%4%2%5%8%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

Rangers

  1. W3–110 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 1.42–1.15
  2. W1–020 SepCeltic (A)xG 1.81–0.39
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.49–1.26
  4. W1–05 SepMotherwell (H)xG 4.29–0.70
  5. W2–12 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–1.00
  6. W1–030 AugAberdeen (A)xG 2.10–0.35

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position3rd2nd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠26–⁠1–⁠1
Points16 (2.00 per game)19 (2.38 per game)
Expected Points per game1.902.06
Goals19–⁠811–⁠5
xG per game2.02–⁠1.202.17–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.742.25, 2.60–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.662.50, 1.73–⁠0.84
ManagerWouter Vrancken (8)Derek McInnes (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.52, 3rdRangers1.92, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdRangers0.97, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Rangers attack: 1.921.921.52RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.11Rangers defence: 0.971.110.97

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+17%−21%+42%−46%
Counter-attacks−11%−53%+20%+14%
Set pieces+27%−8%+42%−33%
Penalties+140%−40%+20%−40%
Headers−10%−9%+40%−50%
Left side+45%−37%+17%−14%
Centre+25%+5%+66%−31%
Right side−34%−50%+20%−59%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side+45%−59%Centre+25%−31%Right side−34%−14%Open play+17%−46%Counter-attacks−11%+14%Set pieces+27%−33%Headers−10%−50%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+17%−50%Centre+66%+5%Right side+20%−37%Open play+42%−21%Counter-attacks+20%−53%Set pieces+42%−8%Headers+40%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

2.02xG2.17
1.20xG against1.02
54%Possession55%
16.8Shots20.1
9.5Shots against9.5
5.4Shots on target6.2
2.8Big chances2.9
29.9Touches in the opposition box38.1
445Passes449
79%Pass accuracy80%
7.4Corners7.4
59%Field tilt60%
38.2Final-third entries47.5
16.5Box entries18.6
12.1Passes per defensive action11.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level442.191.33
Ahead351.960.69
Behind112.750.87

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.340.203–1
16–300.480.061–0
31–450.410.272–2
46–600.350.151–0
61–750.260.191–0
76–900.330.153–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPandur 8Sterling 6Makhanya 1Nedeljković 1Fernandez 8Godfrey 1Makhanya 6Rommens 1Penrice 6Rommens 1Chermiti 1Raskin 6Devlin 3Dragojevic 1Neil 5Diomande 1Curtis 3Kim 2Naderi 1Kim 3Naderi 3Devlin 1Gassama 7Curtis 1Shankland 5Kelsy 34-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 May 2026Hearts2–1RangersxG 0.76–0.82
15 February 2026Rangers4–2HeartsxG 2.51–0.40
21 December 2025Hearts2–1RangersxG 1.70–2.33
13 September 2025Rangers0–2HeartsxG 1.11–2.37
16 February 2025Hearts1–3RangersxG 2.61–1.58
10 November 2024Rangers1–0HeartsxG 2.17–0.59

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Rangers won 12, and 4 were drawn. Goals 17–42 and xG 1.02–2.21 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Naderi4456410.770.18
Gassama7556020.340.17
Raskin6505000.220.12
Sterling6496000.010.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.