Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Dundee United

Saturday 17 October 2026, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 9

Forecast

St. JohnstoneDundee United
Expected goals1.321.29
Win37%36%
Expected Points1.381.34
Clean sheet28%27%

St. Johnstone 37%Draw 28%Dundee United 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee United goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawDundee United win
St. Johnstone
Top six26%37%23%18%
11th14%11%15%17%
Bottom16%11%17%21%
Dundee United
Top six44%34%44%55%
11th6%9%6%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  2. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  3. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  4. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  5. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07
  6. L1–229 AugHearts (A)xG 1.28–2.20

Dundee United

  1. W1–010 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.68–0.77
  2. W3–019 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.60–0.99
  3. D1–15 SepFalkirk (H)xG 2.66–1.27
  4. L0–32 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.16–2.39
  5. W4–029 AugKilmarnock (A)xG 3.42–1.13
  6. L0–222 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.19–1.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneDundee United
Position5th6th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠33–⁠2–⁠3
Points11 (1.38 per game)11 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.49
Goals10–⁠1010–⁠11
xG per game1.33–⁠1.591.62–⁠1.46
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.49–⁠1.411.25, 1.79–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.50, 1.44–⁠1.68
ManagerSimo Valakari (39)Jim Goodwin (96)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.07, 12thDundee United1.25, 6thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56, 11thDundee United1.43, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.07Dundee United attack: 1.251.251.07Dundee UnitedSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.56Dundee United defence: 1.431.561.43

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+11%−24%+17%
Counter-attacks−55%−18%+57%−71%
Set pieces−29%+3%+64%−23%
Penalties+80%−40%−40%−40%
Headers−18%+40%+1%−39%
Left side−6%+13%−18%+12%
Centre−20%−7%+3%−2%
Right side−63%+16%+43%−21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdDundee United concededLeft side−6%−21%Centre−20%−2%Right side−63%+12%Open play−21%+17%Counter-attacks−55%−71%Set pieces−29%−23%Headers−18%−39%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−18%+16%Centre+3%−7%Right side+43%+13%Open play−24%+11%Counter-attacks+57%−18%Set pieces+64%+3%Headers+1%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneDundee United

1.33xG1.62
1.59xG against1.46
48%Possession50%
9.9Shots16.1
14.0Shots against15.4
3.4Shots on target5.4
2.4Big chances2.4
18.4Touches in the opposition box30.0
441Passes398
80%Pass accuracy78%
3.2Corners6.2
49%Field tilt46%
39.7Final-third entries39.0
10.9Box entries14.0
18.3Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.591.52
Ahead210.831.90
Behind231.251.44

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level241.931.19
Ahead291.741.14
Behind361.301.89

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.121–1
16–300.200.202–1
31–450.290.321–2
46–600.330.312–4
61–750.130.211–1
76–900.200.423–1

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.383–3
16–300.160.160–1
31–450.490.235–1
46–600.210.300–3
61–750.250.220–3
76–900.280.172–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

St. Johnstone

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
MitchellInjuryOut for season6527

Dundee United

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
AgyeiInjuryMid October 20264240
MerghemInjuryLate October 20264218

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 8Smith 5Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 2Diabate 7Foulds 1Alić 6Foulds 2McAlear 7Stanton 1Holt 8Stanton 4Campbell 2Smith 1Paton 2Cotterill 2Gullan 2Paton 3Steven 3Gullan 2Fowler 7Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWWalton 8Rawlins 7Yoro 1Esselink 8Forbes 8Ferry 5Ciubotaru 3Camará 4Sevelj 3Iqbal 2Tait 6Agyei 4Cameron 3Yoro 2Randall 4Merghem 4Metsoko 3Sapsford 3Rose 2Bennie 6Randall 1Sapsford 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 April 2025Dundee United1–0St. JohnstonexG 1.17–0.95
26 December 2024St. Johnstone1–2Dundee UnitedxG 0.58–1.27
24 August 2024Dundee United2–0St. JohnstonexG 0.41–1.58
6 May 2023St. Johnstone1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.12–1.26
18 February 2023Dundee United1–2St. JohnstonexG 1.17–0.95
2 January 2023St. Johnstone0–1Dundee UnitedxG 0.63–0.54

13 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 4, Dundee United won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 10–12 and xG 0.90–1.09 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler7557510.560.05
Alić6540100.030.16
Stanton6545010.090.05
Diabate7593100.070.02

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Randall5506220.360.35
Bennie6457110.450.09
Tait6610000.090.15
Forbes8720100.120.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.