Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Falkirk 1–2 Dundee FC

Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 · The Falkirk Stadium · Round 8 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 7,101

Falkirk Murrell 31' (pen)

Dundee FC O. Bevan 52', Hay 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkDundee FC
Goals12
xG1.971.41
Non-penalty xG1.191.41
Expected Points1.780.96

Falkirk 51%Draw 26%Dundee FC 23%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 1–2, 8%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+1%2%2%7%8%3%1%7%4%1%4%7%5%2%1%2%2%12%12%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTYeats on for Murrell and Parkinson on for Krauhaus, 70'Sibbald on for Barbrook, 85'McLeod on for Ross and McMillan on for Strain, 90+1'Murrell 31' (pen)O. Bevan 52'Hay 90+1'Falkirk 1.97Dundee FC 1.4101230153045607590HTYeats on for Murrell and Parkinson on for Krauhaus, 70'Sibbald on for Barbrook, 85'McLeod on for Ross and McMillan on for Strain, 90+1'Murrell 31' (pen)O. Bevan 52'Hay 90+1'1.971.41FalkirkDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkDundee FC

1.97 +0.92xG1.41 +0.17
1.19Non-penalty xG1.41
1.50 +0.74xG on target1.44 +0.17
16 +5Shots22 +11
5 +2.1Shots on target10 +6.3
2 +0.6Big chances2 −0.6
31 +8Touches in the opposition box30 +12
55% +8Possession45% +8
521 +121Passes409 +83
81% +5Pass accuracy79% +7
72% +27Field tilt28% +3
54 +18Final-third entries35 +9
15 +6.0Box entries18 +9.7
15.1 +3Passes per defensive action29.9 +11
3 −1.7Corners10 +5.6
16 −1Tackles10 −5
3 −6.4Interceptions2 −8.0
25 −3Clearances28 −12
8 +3.7Saves4 +0.1
12 −3Fouls11 0
1 −0.3Offsides1 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Yeats 90+5', 0.20 xGMurrell 65', 0.12 xGYeats 77', 0.12 xGYeats 90+5', 0.12 xGMurrell 16', 0.10 xGMurrell 38', 0.07 xGYeats 86', 0.07 xGMcCann 44', 0.06 xGSpencer 72', 0.06 xGEames 89', 0.06 xGKrauhaus 69', 0.05 xGYeats 76', 0.05 xGEames 46', 0.04 xGEames 55', 0.03 xGEames 76', 0.03 xG17%0.20 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.20 xG, 0 goals45%0.53 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.53 xG, 0 goals19%0.23 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals19%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Fink 79', 0.23 xGHay 49', 0.08 xGHay 67', 0.08 xGAstley 83', 0.07 xGFink 1', 0.06 xGHay 81', 0.06 xGGoodman 22', 0.05 xGFink 71', 0.05 xGJ. Bevan 77', 0.05 xGForrest 79', 0.05 xGD. Wright 1', 0.04 xGAstley 14', 0.04 xGForrest 21', 0.04 xGForrest 83', 0.03 xGForrest 19', 0.02 xGHay 26', 0.02 xGJ. Bevan 66', 0.02 xGD. Wright 12', 0.01 xGHay 24', 0.01 xGFink 51', 0.01 xGHay 90+1', 0.26 xG, goalO. Bevan 52', 0.12 xG, goal18%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.26 xG, 1 goal55%0.77 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.77 xG, 1 goal17%0.24 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals8%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkDundee FC

0.99 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 8 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.11 2 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.98 12 shots, 2 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (74%) · Falkirk 1.48, Dundee FC 1.19 xG
Falkirk ahead
21 min (22%) · Falkirk 0.17, Dundee FC 0.22 xG
Dundee FC ahead
4 min (4%) · Falkirk 0.32, Dundee FC 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1922155381623284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannSpencerBarbrookRossKrauhausEamesMurrellGoal90+1'85'90+1'70'70'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn174512272848142111GoodmanD. WrightAstleyO. BevanSamuelsJ. BevanJonesHamiltonForrestFinkHayGoalGoalDundee FC 4-4-2Steven Pressley

Falkirk substitutes

  • 70' Yeats for Murrell
  • 70' Parkinson for Krauhaus
  • 85' Sibbald for Barbrook
  • 90+1' McLeod for Ross
  • 90+1' McMillan for Strain

Dundee FC substitutes

None used

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0784
StrainRB900.000.0710.1795
NeilsonCB900.000.3210.2073
HendersonCB900.000.0100.0546
McCannLB900.060.0830.1967
SpencerDM900.060.2120.251110
BarbrookDM850.000.0210.0033
RossRW900.000.0320.0442
KrauhausAM700.050.030−0.1635
EamesLW900.150.1300.18111
MurrellST7011.090.0100.0714
YeatsMF200.570.0000.0002
ParkinsonFW200.000.0710.0200
SibbaldMF50.000.0010.0000
McLeodMF00.000.0000.0000
McMillanMF00.000.0000.0000

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GoodmanGK900.050.0000.0230
D. WrightRB9010.050.4420.2275
AstleyCB900.100.0210.09913
O. BevanCB9010.120.0000.01410
SamuelsLB900.000.0200.0434
J. BevanRM900.070.1310.3160
JonesCM900.000.1430.0664
HamiltonCM9010.000.1130.0852
ForrestLM900.140.1620.2373
FinkST900.360.0200.0331
HayST9010.510.152−0.0321

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Neilson and Ross: 5 passesBarbrook and Ross: 5 passesBarbrook and Eames: 5 passesStrain and Krauhaus: 6 passesSpencer and Krauhaus: 6 passesSpencer and Murrell: 6 passesRoss and Eames: 6 passesNeilson and Barbrook: 7 passesSpencer and Ross: 8 passesHenderson and Barbrook: 9 passesSpencer and Eames: 9 passesStrain and Ross: 10 passesHenderson and Spencer: 10 passesMcCann and Barbrook: 10 passesBarbrook and Spencer: 11 passesRoss and Krauhaus: 11 passesNeilson and Spencer: 12 passesMcCann and Eames: 12 passesBain and Henderson: 13 passesNeilson and Henderson: 13 passesMcCann and Spencer: 13 passesBain and Neilson: 17 passesStrain and Barbrook: 19 passesStrain and Neilson: 22 passesStrain and Spencer: 24 passesHenderson and McCann: 30 passesBain: 21 completed passesStrain: 46 completed passesNeilson: 44 completed passesHenderson: 44 completed passesMcCann: 41 completed passesBarbrook: 38 completed passesSpencer: 51 completed passesRoss: 23 completed passesKrauhaus: 18 completed passesEames: 17 completed passesMurrell: 4 completed passes1922155316823284224BainStrainNeilsonHendersonMcCannBarbrookSpencerRossKrauhausEamesMurrellStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee FC

Astley and Hamilton: 5 passesO. Bevan and Jones: 5 passesJ. Bevan and Forrest: 5 passesJ. Bevan and Fink: 5 passesJ. Bevan and Hay: 5 passesHamilton and Forrest: 5 passesFink and Hay: 5 passesAstley and Fink: 6 passesSamuels and Jones: 6 passesJ. Bevan and Jones: 6 passesForrest and Hay: 6 passesAstley and J. Bevan: 7 passesD. Wright and J. Bevan: 9 passesO. Bevan and Forrest: 9 passesHamilton and Jones: 9 passesAstley and Jones: 10 passesForrest and Fink: 11 passesO. Bevan and Hamilton: 14 passesSamuels and Hamilton: 14 passesD. Wright and Astley: 16 passesD. Wright and Jones: 17 passesSamuels and Forrest: 19 passesAstley and O. Bevan: 22 passesGoodman and Astley: 23 passesGoodman and O. Bevan: 25 passesO. Bevan and Samuels: 26 passesGoodman: 33 completed passesD. Wright: 30 completed passesAstley: 56 completed passesO. Bevan: 57 completed passesSamuels: 36 completed passesJ. Bevan: 17 completed passesHamilton: 33 completed passesJones: 31 completed passesForrest: 30 completed passesFink: 15 completed passesHay: 12 completed passes174512274828142111GoodmanD. WrightAstleyO. BevanSamuelsJ. BevanHamiltonJonesForrestFinkHayStarters, whole match · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonBain19
McCannHenderson17
HendersonMcCann17
SpencerStrain15
NeilsonStrain13

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
GoodmanO. Bevan16
O. BevanSamuels16
AstleyGoodman14
AstleyD. Wright12
AstleyO. Bevan11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

1−3.02−4.019+5.49+2.46+3.06−2.34−3.13−1.67−0.14−2.94−3.43−2.34+0.97+2.63−3.36+0.16+1.33−0.12−1.13−2.43−0.62+0.92−0.43+1.30−4.02+1.01+0.40−1.90−1.01−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Dundee FC

2−3.17−2.020+0.13−1.05−0.67+0.46−4.04−4.411+3.60−5.73−2.14+0.13−2.14−1.12−0.730.03+0.92−1.62−1.61−2.11−0.40−1.01+0.31−1.60−1.30−0.32+1.70−0.40−1.01−9.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.020.030.020.050.010.010.070.040.080.040.020.030.010.010.030.030.07−0.030.100.07−0.150.100.020.210.20LessMore

Dundee FC

0.010.010.020.020.050.020.010.130.010.020.040.010.010.020.010.100.030.030.050.020.060.13−0.03−0.05−0.080.170.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.17 → 1.18Dundee FC1.11 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.45 → 1.45Dundee FC1.54 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six27%18%−9
11th13%17%+4
Bottom11%17%+6
Dundee FC
Top six28%39%+11
11th13%9%−4
Bottom11%5%−6

From the forecast before the match (10 October 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkDundee FC
Expected goals1.551.08
Win48%26%
Expected Points1.691.04
Clean sheet34%21%

Falkirk 48%Draw 27%Dundee FC 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawDundee FC win
Falkirk
Top six27%34%22%18%
11th13%10%14%17%
Bottom11%8%12%17%
Dundee FC
Top six28%21%29%39%
11th13%16%13%9%
Bottom11%15%10%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  2. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  3. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  4. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  5. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45
  6. D0–09 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.27

Dundee FC

  1. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  2. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  3. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  4. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33
  5. W2–022 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.43–1.19
  6. W2–08 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.83–0.72

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkDundee FC
Position11th4th
Played77
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠33–⁠1–⁠3
Points6 (0.86 per game)10 (1.43 per game)
Expected Points per game0.881.23
Goals6–⁠99–⁠7
xG per game1.05–⁠1.891.24–⁠1.52
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.23–⁠1.641.75, 1.58–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.92–⁠2.081.00, 0.78–⁠1.79
ManagerJohn McGlynn (45)Steven Pressley (45)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.17, 7thDundee FC1.11, 10thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.45, 7thDundee FC1.54, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepFalkirk attack: 1.17Dundee FC attack: 1.111.171.11Dundee FCFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepFalkirk defence: 1.45Dundee FC defence: 1.541.541.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%+49%−28%+12%
Counter-attacks−89%−16%−13%−57%
Set pieces−50%+14%−10%−9%
Penalties−100%−100%−25%−25%
Headers−76%−44%+24%+10%
Left side−54%+18%+6%+18%
Centre−23%+21%−33%−31%
Right side−3%+62%−32%+24%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−54%+24%Centre−23%−31%Right side−3%+18%Open play−4%+12%Counter-attacks−89%−57%Set pieces−50%−9%Headers−76%+10%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side+6%+62%Centre−33%+21%Right side−32%+18%Open play−28%+49%Counter-attacks−13%−16%Set pieces−10%+14%Headers+24%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee FC

1.05xG1.24
1.89xG against1.52
47%Possession37%
11.0Shots11.3
15.0Shots against19.3
2.9Shots on target3.7
1.4Big chances2.6
23.1Touches in the opposition box17.6
400Passes326
76%Pass accuracy72%
4.7Corners4.4
45%Field tilt25%
36.3Final-third entries25.7
9.0Box entries8.3
12.3Passes per defensive action18.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.321.48
Ahead221.332.29
Behind300.512.12

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.321.37
Ahead381.241.52
Behind151.011.88

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.162–3
16–300.080.470–2
31–450.170.411–0
46–600.140.201–0
61–750.230.372–0
76–900.230.270–4

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.181–0
16–300.310.192–1
31–450.150.262–1
46–600.210.162–1
61–750.200.350–1
76–900.310.372–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Unavailable

Falkirk

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
DohertyInjuryLate October 20261203
GardnerInjuryEarly November 2026184
LaidlawInjuryMid October 2026179
AdamsInjuryDoubtful00
NesbittInjuryMid October 202600

Dundee FC

PlayerReasonExpected backStartsMin
WalesInjuryLate October 20261187
WestleyInjuryLate October 20267537

Injured, suspended, and otherwise unavailable players as listed before the match, with their league starts and minutes this season.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 7Strain 7Neilson 5Meļņiks 2Henderson 7McCann 6Tanser 1Barbrook 6McMillan 1Spencer 5Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 4Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 5Yeats 2Eames 3Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 4Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 7Wright 6Halliday 1Astley 7O. Bevan 7Odutayo 5Samuels 2J. Bevan 5Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 1Hamilton 7Reilly 4Forrest 2Moorhouse 1Fink 3Murray 2Forrest 1Westley 74-4-2 in 4 of 7 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 February 2026Falkirk1–0Dundee FCxG 0.98–1.58
27 December 2025Dundee FC1–0FalkirkxG 1.24–1.33
25 October 2025Falkirk2–1Dundee FCxG 1.08–1.21

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 2, Dundee FC won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–2 and xG 1.13–1.34 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain7630030.080.18
Barbrook6506000.130.11
Ross6480100.130.11
Krauhaus6469100.110.07

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
O. Bevan7630100.060.03
Hamilton7630000.060.03
Finnigan6472000.030.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.