Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–1 Livingston

Saturday 20 February 2021, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 33 · Half-time 1–1

St. Mirren MacPherson 32'

Livingston McCarthy 8' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenLivingston
Goals11
xG0.710.29
Expected Points1.670.86

St. Mirren 40%Draw 48%Livingston 13%

Most likely score 0–0, 39%. Final score 1–1, 9%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%1%25%9%1%9%3%2%39%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTMcAllister on for Connolly, 60'Erwin on for MacPherson, 73'Taylor-Sinclair on for Forrest, 56'Kabia on for Reilly and Lawson on for Sibbald, 64'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Mullin, 69'MacPherson 32'McCarthy 8' (og)St. Mirren 0.71Livingston 0.2900.250.50.750153045607590HTMcAllister on for Connolly, 60'Erwin on for MacPherson, 73'Taylor-Sinclair on for Forrest, 56'Kabia on for Reilly and Lawson on for Sibbald, 64'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Mullin, 69'MacPherson 32'McCarthy 8' (og)0.710.29St. MirrenLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenLivingston

0.71 −0.37xG0.29 −0.90
0.81 −0.11xG on target0.22 −0.87
15 +3Shots7 −3
4 +0.6Shots on target1 −2.1
0 −1.1Big chances0 −1.6
15 −3Touches in the opposition box12 −6
56% +10Possession44% −4
350 −7Passes265 −80
63% −4Pass accuracy52% −9
57% +14Field tilt43% −8
31 −2Final-third entries17 −16
7 −1.0Box entries4 −4.3
18.9 +5Passes per defensive action10.4 −2
6 +1.1Corners8 +3.2
2 −12Tackles17 +1
10 −1Interceptions17 +6
18 −2Clearances19 +1
1 −2.2Saves3 +1.0
7 −5Fouls14 0
3 +1.3Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Durmus 4', 0.07 xGShaughnessy 9', 0.07 xGMcAllister 80', 0.07 xGShaughnessy 41', 0.06 xGDurmus 80', 0.06 xGObika 88', 0.06 xGErhahon 51', 0.05 xGMcCarthy 81', 0.05 xGFraser 25', 0.04 xGTait 82', 0.04 xGMacPherson 4', 0.03 xGMacPherson 8', 0.03 xGConnolly 14', 0.03 xGErhahon 41', 0.03 xGMacPherson 32', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.31 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals41%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal7%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Guthrie 30', 0.06 xGSerrano 31', 0.05 xGMullin 5', 0.04 xGDevlin 37', 0.04 xGKabia 72', 0.04 xGSibbald 30', 0.03 xGMullin 30', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals66%0.19 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals24%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals10%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenLivingston

0.37 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.07 2 shots, 0 goals
0.34 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (73%) · St. Mirren 0.51, Livingston 0.11 xG
Livingston ahead
24 min (27%) · St. Mirren 0.20, Livingston 0.17 xG

Line-ups

1225421482511219AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMacPhersonFlynnErhahonDurmusConnollyObikaOwn goalGoal73'60'St. Mirren 3-5-1-1Jim Goodwin1225271210181481120McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoSibbaldHoltMullinPittmanForrestReillyYellow card64'69'56'64'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 60' McAllister for Connolly
  • 73' Erwin for MacPherson

Livingston substitutes

  • 56' Taylor-Sinclair for Forrest
  • 64' Kabia for Reilly
  • 64' Lawson for Sibbald
  • 69' Emmanuel-Thomas for Mullin

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0552
FraserCB900.040.1200.37153
McCarthyCB900.050.0000.0557
ShaughnessyCB900.130.0100.0657
TaitRWB900.040.1200.2347
MacPhersonCM7310.090.2620.0621
FlynnCM900.000.0100.0013
ErhahonCM900.080.0410.0331
DurmusLWB900.120.082−0.0370
ConnollyAM600.030.0000.0002
ObikaST9010.060.0510.0720
McAllisterFW300.070.0610.0141
ErwinFW170.000.0310.0500

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0220
DevlinRB900.040.0220.0968
AmbroseCB900.000.0000.01110
Guthrie CB900.060.0310.06215
SerranoLB900.050.0100.0456
SibbaldDM640.030.2120.0415
HoltDM900.000.0300.0353
MullinRW690.060.0210.0110
PittmanAM900.000.010−0.0103
ForrestLW560.000.0200.0232
ReillyST640.000.000−0.0111
Taylor-SinclairDF340.000.0000.0111
KabiaMF260.040.0000.0101
LawsonMF260.000.0000.0004
Emmanuel-ThomasFW210.000.010−0.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Fraser: 3 passesAlnwick and Tait: 3 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 3 passesTait and Obika: 3 passesMacPherson and Erhahon: 3 passesMcCarthy and MacPherson: 4 passesShaughnessy and Obika: 4 passesFraser and MacPherson: 4 passesFraser and Erhahon: 4 passesFraser and Obika: 4 passesMacPherson and Obika: 4 passesMcCarthy and Shaughnessy: 5 passesShaughnessy and MacPherson: 5 passesDurmus and Obika: 5 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 6 passesTait and Flynn: 6 passesTait and MacPherson: 6 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 7 passesFraser and Tait: 7 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 9 passesDurmus and Erhahon: 9 passesAlnwick: 15 completed passesMcCarthy: 12 completed passesShaughnessy: 20 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesTait: 18 completed passesDurmus: 18 completed passesFlynn: 7 completed passesMacPherson: 15 completed passesErhahon: 11 completed passesConnolly: 0 completed passesObika: 12 completed passes1542221181425219AlnwickMcCarthyShaughnessyFraserTaitDurmusFlynnMacPhersonErhahonConnollyObikaStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

McCrorie and Mullin: 3 passesMcCrorie and Pittman: 3 passesDevlin and Pittman: 3 passesDevlin and Forrest: 3 passesGuthrie and Mullin: 3 passesSerrano and Holt: 3 passesSerrano and Pittman: 3 passesPittman and Forrest: 3 passesForrest and Reilly: 3 passesMcCrorie and Ambrose: 4 passesDevlin and Serrano: 4 passesSerrano and Reilly: 4 passesHolt and Forrest: 4 passesMcCrorie and Devlin: 5 passesDevlin and Mullin: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 5 passesMcCrorie: 12 completed passesDevlin: 13 completed passesAmbrose: 7 completed passesGuthrie: 8 completed passesSerrano: 10 completed passesHolt: 11 completed passesSibbald: 9 completed passesMullin: 6 completed passesPittman: 9 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesReilly: 3 completed passes1225271218101481120McCrorieDevlinAmbroseGuthrieSerranoHoltSibbaldMullinPittmanForrestReillyStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
AlnwickMcCarthy10
DurmusErhahon8
AlnwickShaughnessy8
ErhahonDurmus7
ShaughnessyAlnwick7

Livingston

FromToPasses
HoltSerrano6
HoltPittman4
PittmanHolt4
Emmanuel-ThomasDevlin4
McCroriePittman3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−2.116+2.27+0.77+2.16−1.45−2.69+0.94−3.25−0.13−3.31−3.42−3.46−0.12−2.63−0.51−1.95+1.64−0.41−1.00−1.62+0.91−0.90−2.31−0.10−0.20−0.90−0.41+0.51−4.64−4.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Livingston

6+1.07+2.27−3.78+2.94−0.97−1.58+1.310+3.89+1.85−4.110+4.610+4.77+3.07+1.72−4.43−1.11−3.51−2.12−2.010+5.52−1.23+0.62+0.92+0.54+1.21−0.40−0.41+0.40−0.64+3.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.060.020.040.040.010.030.040.030.050.030.010.060.030.060.010.03−0.05−0.020.020.220.21LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.010.010.010.030.020.030.02−0.01−0.010.030.030.030.010.020.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren1.01 → 1.00Livingston1.10 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.20 → 1.17Livingston1.13 → 1.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six74%75%+1
11th<1%<1%0
Livingston
Top six99%>99%+1
Dundee United
Top six11%10%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six12%12%0

From the forecast before the match (20 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenLivingston
Expected goals0.991.18
Win30%39%
Expected Points1.211.49
Clean sheet31%37%

St. Mirren 30%Draw 31%Livingston 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Livingston goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%3%8%3%6%7%4%2%2%2%1%12%13%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawLivingston win
St. Mirren
Top six74%91%75%62%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Livingston
Top six99%98%>99%>99%
Dundee United
Top six11%4%10%16%
St. Johnstone
Top six12%6%12%17%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–117 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.74–1.52
  2. D0–013 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.66–0.51
  3. L0–410 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.57–2.57
  4. W2–06 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.56–0.49
  5. L1–22 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.65–1.60
  6. W2–130 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.03–1.61

Livingston

  1. L0–313 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.93–1.93
  2. L1–26 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.78
  3. W2–02 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.56–0.36
  4. D0–030 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.98–1.38
  5. W2–027 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 1.10–0.59
  6. D2–220 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.77–1.69

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenLivingston
Position6th5th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠7–⁠1211–⁠6–⁠11
Points34 (1.21 per game)39 (1.39 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.39
Goals27–⁠3335–⁠34
xG per game1.08–⁠1.251.19–⁠1.12
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.14–⁠1.221.29, 1.08–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game1.43, 1.01–⁠1.291.50, 1.31–⁠0.92
ManagerJim Goodwin (28)David Martindale (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackSt. Mirren1.01, 8thLivingston1.10, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.20, 7thLivingston1.13, 6th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.01Livingston attack: 1.101.101.01LivingstonSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.20Livingston defence: 1.131.201.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+10%−3%−22%
Counter-attacks−17%−60%−91%−33%
Set piecesaverage−11%+15%+9%
Penalties−17%−17%−38%+4%
Headers−24%+12%+19%+4%
Left side−3%+3%−13%−36%
Centre−15%−14%+13%−8%
Right side−25%+27%−16%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdLivingston concededLeft side−3%+3%Centre−15%−8%Right side−25%−36%Open play−20%−22%Counter-attacks−17%−33%Set piecesaverage+9%Headers−24%+4%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−13%+27%Centre+13%−14%Right side−16%+3%Open play−3%+10%Counter-attacks−91%−60%Set pieces+15%−11%Headers+19%+12%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenLivingston

1.08xG1.19
1.25xG against1.12
46%Possession48%
11.8Shots10.2
12.6Shots against9.5
3.4Shots on target3.1
1.1Big chances1.6
17.8Touches in the opposition box17.6
357Passes345
66%Pass accuracy61%
4.9Corners4.8
42%Field tilt51%
33.0Final-third entries32.8
8.0Box entries8.3
13.8Passes per defensive action12.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.031.17
Ahead191.381.22
Behind290.941.40

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.031.00
Ahead161.220.95
Behind261.461.42

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.163–2
16–300.150.224–9
31–450.250.176–6
46–600.090.253–5
61–750.130.243–7
76–900.290.228–4

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.117–3
16–300.230.233–11
31–450.100.242–8
46–600.210.219–9
61–750.210.135–0
76–900.270.199–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 24Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 22Tait 3Connolly 2McCarthy 27Shaughnessy 25Foley 3Tait 1Tait 19Durmus 4Obika 2McAllister 8Connolly 7Fraser 3McGrath 19MacPhers… 8MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 13Doyle-HayesObika 1Fraser 1Erhahon 20Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 9Mason 5Obika 3Obika 11Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 17McCrorie 11Devlin 25Robinson 1Ambrose 1Ambrose 11Fitzwater 8Guthrie 25Brown 8Taylor-Sinclair 4Serrano 15Brown 5Ambrose 2Bartley 21Pittman 4Serrano 1Holt 15Sibbald 9Lawson 3Mullin 9Robinson 6Fitzwater 4Pittman 18Bartley 4Holt 1Forrest 15Sibbald 7Robinson 2Emmanuel-Thomas 6Robinson 5Tiffoney 34-2-3-1 in 14 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 November 2020Livingston0–1St. MirrenxG 0.46–0.39
1 August 2020St. Mirren1–0LivingstonxG 1.04–0.55

2 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Livingston won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–0 and xG 0.72–0.51 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika171,632500.330.05
McGrath262,110510.230.15
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin111,061200.230.06

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest171,458410.200.22
Emmanuel-Thomas7820200.290.05
Mullin11929230.090.20
Robinson161,421410.190.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.