Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 1–0 St. Mirren

Wednesday 23 December 2020, 18:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 1–0

Hibernian Nisbet 18' · Doidge sent off 88'

St. Mirren Mason sent off 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianSt. Mirren
Goals10
xG0.860.85
Expected Points1.321.29

Hibernian 31%Draw 38%St. Mirren 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 21%. Final score 1–0, 16%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+15%15%5%1%7%1%6%6%3%1%1%16%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMason (St. Mirren), second yellow card 83'Doidge (Hibernian), second yellow card 88'Wright on for Magennis, 46'Barnes on for Marciano, 57'Gullan on for Nisbet, 82'Gogic on for Hallberg, 90'Durmus on for Tait, 46'Obika on for Erwin, 67'Dennis on for McGrath and Morias on for Connolly, 69'McAllister on for MacPherson, 78'Nisbet 18'Hibernian 0.86St. Mirren 0.8500.250.50.7510153045607590HTMason (St. Mirren), second yellow card 83'Doidge (Hibernian), second yellow card 88'Wright on for Magennis, 46'Barnes on for Marciano, 57'Gullan on for Nisbet, 82'Gogic on for Hallberg, 90'Durmus on for Tait, 46'Obika on for Erwin, 67'Dennis on for McGrath and Morias on for Connolly, 69'McAllister on for MacPherson, 78'Nisbet 18'0.860.85HibernianSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianSt. Mirren

0.86 −0.75xG0.85 −0.22
0.49 −1.28xG on target0.71 −0.16
10 −2Shots13 +2
4 −0.3Shots on target4 +0.6
1 −1.1Big chances1 −0.1
16 −5Touches in the opposition box16 −1
52% +2Possession48% +3
402 +9Passes369 +27
69% −3Pass accuracy73% +9
61% +16Field tilt39% −4
38 −2Final-third entries37 +3
13 +1.9Box entries10 +3.0
13.2 −1Passes per defensive action11.4 −3
1 −4.5Corners3 −1.5
11 −3Tackles14 +1
18 +9.1Interceptions14 +2.8
13 −8Clearances23 +1
4 +1.4Saves3 −1.0
14 +1Fouls16 +4
1 −1.1Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Nisbet 69', 0.45 xGPorteous 20', 0.07 xGNewell 78', 0.07 xGHallberg 32', 0.05 xGNisbet 31', 0.04 xGMagennis 32', 0.04 xGBoyle 36', 0.03 xGNewell 50', 0.03 xGBoyle 54', 0.03 xGNisbet 18', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals77%0.66 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal13%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals7%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Durmus 51', 0.40 xGFraser 87', 0.06 xGMacPherson 21', 0.05 xGDurmus 86', 0.05 xGMcAllister 89', 0.05 xGMcGrath 26', 0.04 xGMcCarthy 53', 0.04 xGMacPherson 10', 0.03 xGMacPherson 33', 0.03 xGConnolly 48', 0.03 xGErwin 63', 0.03 xGMacPherson 66', 0.03 xGObika 68', 0.03 xG48%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.40 xG, 0 goals26%0.22 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.12 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianSt. Mirren

0.86 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.62 8 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (20%) · Hibernian 0.06, St. Mirren 0.03 xG
Hibernian ahead
72 min (80%) · Hibernian 0.80, St. Mirren 0.82 xG

Line-ups

1654161011207159MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonBoyleNewellHallbergMagennisNisbetDoidgeYellow cardGoalYellow cardSent off, second yellow57'90'46'82'Hibernian 4-4-2Jack Ross12254221141725323AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitConnollyMacPhersonMcGrathErhahonMasonErwinYellow cardSent off, second yellow46'69'78'69'67'St. Mirren 4-5-1Jim Goodwin

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Wright for Magennis
  • 57' Barnes for Marciano
  • 82' Gullan for Nisbet
  • 90' Gogic for Hallberg

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Durmus for Tait
  • 67' Obika for Erwin
  • 69' Morias for Connolly
  • 69' Dennis for McGrath
  • 78' McAllister for MacPherson

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK570.000.0000.0110
P. McGinnRB900.000.0110.0355
PorteousCB900.070.0600.20106
HanlonCB900.000.0000.0357
Stevenson LB900.000.0100.0433
BoyleRM9010.050.1120.2034
NewellCM900.100.0200.11116
HallbergCM900.050.0200.0152
MagennisLM460.040.000−0.0221
NisbetST8210.540.2430.1153
Doidge ST880.000.0300.0141
WrightDF440.000.1410.2034
BarnesGK330.000.0000.0001
GullanFW80.000.000−0.0101
GogicDF00.000.0000.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0440
FraserRB900.060.1020.2166
McCarthyCB900.040.0210.091111
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0100.0457
TaitLB460.000.0000.0135
ConnollyRM690.030.010−0.0101
MacPhersonCM780.130.2510.1835
McGrathCM690.040.1620.0012
ErhahonCM900.000.0110.0565
Mason LM830.000.1200.1255
ErwinST670.030.0100.0611
DurmusFW440.450.000−0.0201
ObikaFW230.030.0000.0221
MoriasFW210.000.0000.0331
DennisFW210.000.0000.0000
McAllisterFW120.050.0520.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marciano and Porteous: 4 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 4 passesMarciano and Magennis: 4 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 4 passesPorteous and Magennis: 4 passesHallberg and Newell: 4 passesHallberg and Magennis: 4 passesNewell and Magennis: 4 passesPorteous and Nisbet: 5 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 5 passesPorteous and Hallberg: 6 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 7 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 7 passesBoyle and Nisbet: 7 passesHanlon and Hallberg: 8 passesStevenson and Hallberg: 10 passesPorteous and Newell: 13 passesStevenson and Magennis: 14 passesMarciano: 8 completed passesP. McGinn: 15 completed passesPorteous: 24 completed passesHanlon: 17 completed passesStevenson: 24 completed passesBoyle: 6 completed passesHallberg: 18 completed passesNewell: 20 completed passesMagennis: 17 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passes1654161020117915MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonBoyleHallbergNewellMagennisDoidgeNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Tait: 4 passesShaughnessy and MacPherson: 4 passesTait and Erwin: 4 passesConnolly and McGrath: 4 passesMcGrath and Erhahon: 4 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 4 passesMason and Erwin: 4 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 5 passesFraser and McGrath: 5 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 5 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 6 passesFraser and Connolly: 6 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 6 passesTait and Erhahon: 6 passesTait and Mason: 6 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 7 passesMcCarthy and Erwin: 7 passesTait and McGrath: 7 passesFraser and McCarthy: 9 passesMcCarthy and MacPherson: 9 passesFraser and MacPherson: 11 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 16 passesAlnwick: 12 completed passesFraser: 22 completed passesShaughnessy: 18 completed passesMcCarthy: 29 completed passesTait: 17 completed passesConnolly: 6 completed passesMcGrath: 21 completed passesMacPherson: 14 completed passesErhahon: 20 completed passesMason: 9 completed passesErwin: 13 completed passes12245221171425323AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitConnollyMcGrathMacPhersonErhahonMasonErwinStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousNewell12
StevensonMagennis10
NewellPorteous9
P. McGinnNewell9
StevensonHallberg8

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyShaughnessy10
ShaughnessyMcCarthy9
FraserMacPherson8
FraserMcCarthy6
AlnwickShaughnessy6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

7+2.25−0.270.03−2.910+3.811+3.84−4.86−0.69+1.97+1.49+3.68+3.360.06+1.55+1.14+1.11−0.66+2.86+2.62+0.40−1.21+0.310.01−0.71+0.40−0.60−1.11+0.62+1.36−8.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

St. Mirren

2−2.911−3.26−0.15−0.46−1.35−3.66−1.67−0.811+3.15+0.311+5.05+0.86+1.29+2.64−0.73−1.18+5.37+3.940.04+1.76+4.50−1.02−0.23+0.70−1.00−0.12+1.40−0.30−0.70−6.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.020.010.020.020.030.030.050.010.020.040.040.030.020.010.120.10−0.030.010.02−0.02−0.010.190.16LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.030.040.020.010.030.020.010.020.010.120.010.020.020.07−0.020.14−0.01−0.030.06−0.030.070.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHibernian1.39 → 1.34St. Mirren0.96 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.16 → 1.13St. Mirren1.30 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six37%30%−7
11th6%8%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Dundee United
Top six29%30%+1
11th6%7%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six32%34%+2
11th4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.540.90
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.820.91
Clean sheet40%21%

Hibernian 52%Draw 27%St. Mirren 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%4%1%5%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%9%13%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawSt. Mirren win
St. Mirren
Top six37%30%38%50%
11th6%8%6%3%
Bottom2%3%1%1%
Dundee United
Top six29%30%29%25%
11th6%7%5%6%
St. Johnstone
Top six32%34%33%29%
11th4%4%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–119 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.12–1.43
  2. W4–012 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.14–0.17
  3. W3–05 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.22
  4. D2–224 NovSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.56–1.02
  5. D2–221 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.54–1.91
  6. L0–26 NovAberdeen (A)xG 0.67–0.88

St. Mirren

  1. W3–219 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.07–1.03
  2. W1–012 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.78
  3. D1–15 DecAberdeen (H)xG 2.58–0.39
  4. W1–021 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.39–0.46
  5. D0–06 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.38–0.20
  6. L1–22 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.48–0.92

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianSt. Mirren
Position4th6th
Played1815
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠35–⁠3–⁠7
Points33 (1.83 per game)18 (1.20 per game)
Expected Points per game1.601.23
Goals29–⁠1712–⁠18
xG per game1.61–⁠1.241.07–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 1.48–⁠1.561.12, 1.28–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game2.20, 1.70–⁠0.981.29, 0.83–⁠1.61
ManagerJack Ross (18)Jim Goodwin (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHibernian1.39, 3rdSt. Mirren0.96, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.16, 5thSt. Mirren1.30, 8th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.39St. Mirren attack: 0.961.390.96St. MirrenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.16St. Mirren defence: 1.301.301.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+28%−17%−22%+16%
Counter-attacks+4%+4%−34%−100%
Set pieces−4%−6%+10%−18%
Penalties+35%+35%−68%−35%
Headers+40%−22%−28%+24%
Left side+6%−8%+5%−11%
Centre+25%−37%−3%−21%
Right side+19%+25%−48%+59%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+6%+59%Centre+25%−21%Right side+19%−11%Open play+28%+16%Counter-attacks+4%−100%Set pieces−4%−18%Headers+40%+24%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side+5%+25%Centre−3%−37%Right side−48%−8%Open play−22%−17%Counter-attacks−34%+4%Set pieces+10%−6%Headers−28%−22%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.61xG1.07
1.24xG against1.31
50%Possession45%
12.4Shots11.4
12.6Shots against13.5
4.3Shots on target3.4
2.1Big chances1.1
21.3Touches in the opposition box17.1
393Passes342
72%Pass accuracy64%
5.5Corners4.5
45%Field tilt43%
39.9Final-third entries33.8
11.1Box entries7.0
14.6Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.791.09
Ahead351.691.42
Behind130.811.24

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.251.26
Ahead220.761.27
Behind261.041.41

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.184–3
16–300.190.125–0
31–450.260.296–5
46–600.220.224–2
61–750.340.175–1
76–900.310.265–6

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.193–1
16–300.200.252–5
31–450.220.202–4
46–600.100.282–2
61–750.080.231–5
76–900.280.152–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 18P. McGinn 17Boyle 1Porteous 18Hanlon 18Doig 7Stevenson 6Gogic 2Boyle 14Wright 2P. McGinn 1Gogic 9Hallberg 4Wright 2Newell 17Magennis 1Murphy 6Horgan 4Doig 3Nisbet 16Boyle 2Wright 1Doidge 14Gogic 24-4-2 in 11 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 3-5-2 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 12Zlamal 3Fraser 13Tait 1MacPherson 1McCarthy 14Shaughnessy 12Foley 3Tait 1Tait 10Fraser 2Obika 2Erhahon 4Doyle-Hayes 3Sheron 3McAllister 5Connolly 3MacPherson 2McGrath 10Sheron 3Doyle-Hayes 1Foley 6Erhahon 5MacPherson 3Durmus 6Obika 3McGrath 2Erwin 5Obika 5Morias 34-1-4-1 in 4 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-5-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 September 2020St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 1.24–1.09

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, St. Mirren won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–0 and xG 1.09–1.24 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet161,373920.600.08
Doidge141,328510.440.08
Boyle181,609530.280.11
Murphy6544110.150.20

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika11986300.330.07
Erwin5590200.370.02
Morias6553000.280.04
McGrath151,254210.150.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.