Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 0–3 Livingston

Saturday 2 January 2021, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 0–2

Livingston Mullin 9', Guthrie 16', Robinson 47'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianLivingston
Goals03
xG0.491.18
Expected Points0.691.97

Hibernian 12%Draw 34%Livingston 54%

Most likely score 0–1, 25%. Final score 0–3, 3%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+14%13%3%8%9%2%1%2%1%25%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMurphy on for Gogic, 50'Doig on for Stevenson and Gullan on for Doidge, 67'Wright on for Gullan, 88'Lawson on for Mullin, 74'Serrano on for Sibbald, 75'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Robinson, 83'Mullin 9'Guthrie 16'Robinson 47'Livingston 1.18Hibernian 0.4900.511.50153045607590HTMurphy on for Gogic, 50'Doig on for Stevenson and Gullan on for Doidge, 67'Wright on for Gullan, 88'Lawson on for Mullin, 74'Serrano on for Sibbald, 75'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Robinson, 83'Mullin 9'Guthrie 16'Robinson 47'1.180.49HibernianLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianLivingston

0.49 −1.04xG1.18 −0.09
0.19 −1.37xG on target2.37 +1.27
5 −7Shots12 +2
1 −3.1Shots on target6 +3.1
1 −1.0Big chances1 −0.5
13 −8Touches in the opposition box14 −5
67% +17Possession33% −16
519 +126Passes263 −89
77% +5Pass accuracy54% −7
67% +21Field tilt33% −19
51 +11Final-third entries25 −10
8 −2.8Box entries9 −0.1
9.1 −6Passes per defensive action23.7 +12
5 −0.5Corners4 −1.1
12 −2Tackles11 −6
9 −0.2Interceptions16 +4.7
12 −8Clearances28 +10
3 +0.3Saves1 −0.9
10 −2Fouls13 −1
3 +0.9Offsides4 +2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Porteous 90+2', 0.34 xGMallan 68', 0.05 xGMallan 50', 0.04 xGGullan 72', 0.04 xGNewell 45+1', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.38 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals14%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Mullin 38', 0.06 xGHolt 61', 0.06 xGHolt 5', 0.05 xGSerrano 77', 0.05 xGMullin 23', 0.04 xGMullin 16', 0.03 xGSibbald 47', 0.03 xGHolt 51', 0.03 xGHolt 51', 0.02 xGGuthrie 16', 0.59 xG, goalRobinson 47', 0.15 xG, goalMullin 9', 0.07 xG, goal50%0.59 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.59 xG, 1 goal24%0.28 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal8%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianLivingston

0.10 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.57 10 shots, 2 goals
0.39 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.61 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Hibernian 0.00, Livingston 0.12 xG
Livingston ahead
84 min (90%) · Hibernian 0.49, Livingston 1.06 xG

Line-ups

16541613101415119MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonGogicBoyleMallanNisbetNewellDoidgeYellow card67'50'67'Hibernian 4-1-4-1Jack Ross322252736181481017StryjekDevlinAmbroseGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanSibbaldRobinsonGoalGoalGoalYellow card74'75'83'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Hibernian substitutes

  • 0' Barnes
  • 50' Murphy for Gogic
  • 67' Doig for Stevenson
  • 67' Gullan for Doidge · off 88'
  • 88' Wright for Gullan

Livingston substitutes

  • 74' Lawson for Mullin
  • 75' Serrano for Sibbald
  • 83' Emmanuel-Thomas for Robinson

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.000––0
P. McGinnRB900.000.0200.1184
PorteousCB900.340.1200.17235
HanlonCB900.000.2300.16116
StevensonLB670.000.0100.0441
GogicDM500.000.0110.0213
BoyleRM900.000.0200.0330
MallanCM900.090.2320.1059
NisbetCM900.000.000−0.0411
Newell LM900.030.020−0.0332
DoidgeST670.000.000−0.0102
BarnesGK900.000.0000.0101
MurphyMF400.000.0400.0220
DoigDF230.000.0200.0530
GullanFW210.040.000−0.0200
WrightMF20.000.6900.1100

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0112
DevlinRB900.000.0000.0235
AmbroseCB900.000.0000.0216
GuthrieCB90110.590.0310.13814
BrownLB900.000.0000.0114
BartleyDM900.000.0100.0334
HoltDM900.160.0110.0456
MullinRW7410.200.0110.0645
PittmanAM900.000.0430.0663
SibbaldLW750.030.0110.0334
Robinson ST83110.150.1420.0532
LawsonMF160.000.0110.0010
SerranoFW150.050.0000.0201
Emmanuel-ThomasFW70.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Stevenson and Doidge: 4 passesGogic and Boyle: 4 passesBoyle and Mallan: 4 passesMallan and Newell: 4 passesBarnes and Hanlon: 5 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 5 passesPorteous and Nisbet: 5 passesHanlon and Gogic: 6 passesP. McGinn and Mallan: 7 passesPorteous and Gogic: 7 passesPorteous and Mallan: 7 passesStevenson and Mallan: 7 passesBarnes and Porteous: 8 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 8 passesStevenson and Newell: 8 passesPorteous and Newell: 10 passesP. McGinn and Gogic: 11 passesHanlon and Mallan: 13 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 14 passesHanlon and Newell: 15 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 19 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 25 passesBarnes: 11 completed passesP. McGinn: 33 completed passesPorteous: 44 completed passesHanlon: 45 completed passesStevenson: 27 completed passesGogic: 18 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesMallan: 20 completed passesNisbet: 4 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passes336541613101415119BarnesP. McGinnPorteousHanlonStevensonGogicBoyleMallanNisbetNewellDoidgeStarters until 50' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Ambrose: 3 passesAmbrose and Guthrie: 3 passesGuthrie and Bartley: 3 passesGuthrie and Sibbald: 3 passesGuthrie and Robinson: 3 passesHolt and Pittman: 3 passesMullin and Pittman: 3 passesMullin and Sibbald: 3 passesPittman and Robinson: 3 passesStryjek and Guthrie: 4 passesDevlin and Holt: 4 passesDevlin and Robinson: 4 passesBrown and Robinson: 4 passesHolt and Mullin: 4 passesHolt and Robinson: 4 passesMullin and Robinson: 4 passesStryjek and Ambrose: 5 passesPittman and Sibbald: 5 passesDevlin and Pittman: 6 passesGuthrie and Holt: 6 passesBrown and Sibbald: 6 passesSibbald and Robinson: 6 passesHolt and Sibbald: 7 passesStryjek: 7 completed passesDevlin: 14 completed passesAmbrose: 12 completed passesGuthrie: 17 completed passesBrown: 9 completed passesBartley: 6 completed passesHolt: 18 completed passesMullin: 7 completed passesPittman: 9 completed passesSibbald: 15 completed passesRobinson: 10 completed passes322252736181481017StryjekDevlinAmbroseGuthrieBrownBartleyHoltMullinPittmanSibbaldRobinsonStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonPorteous22
PorteousHanlon15
HanlonStevenson14
P. McGinnPorteous13
P. McGinnBoyle13

Livingston

FromToPasses
HoltGuthrie5
DevlinPittman4
DevlinRobinson4
RobinsonSibbald4
AmbroseStryjek4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−1.82−3.212−1.74−1.92−4.67−0.54−4.33−3.55−2.313+7.75−0.77+2.23−2.89+3.93−0.85+2.02+0.32−1.35+1.01−0.62+0.81+0.23+1.91−0.71+0.41+0.52+1.00−0.40−0.70−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Livingston

15+10.37+2.015+4.57+1.83−2.18−0.28+1.28+1.611+3.48−1.60−5.61−4.49+5.19+3.815+8.84−0.55+0.94+1.04+0.43−1.20−3.21−1.40−1.20−1.61−1.50−1.70−0.51+0.31+0.51−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.030.010.050.010.040.060.080.040.020.040.020.050.060.040.040.020.03−0.01−0.04−0.02−0.010.12LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.01−0.010.040.020.060.040.050.040.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackHibernian1.28 → 1.24Livingston1.06 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10 → 1.13Livingston1.17 → 1.13

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six63%76%+13
11th1%<1%−1
Dundee United
Top six37%32%−5
Motherwell
Top six17%15%−2

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianLivingston
Expected goals1.301.04
Win42%29%
Expected Points1.551.16
Clean sheet35%27%

Hibernian 42%Draw 29%Livingston 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Livingston goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+9%5%2%7%2%8%8%4%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawLivingston win
Livingston
Top six63%54%62%76%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Dundee United
Top six37%39%39%32%
Motherwell
Top six17%19%17%15%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.69
  2. L0–126 DecRangers (A)xG 0.95–2.08
  3. W1–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.86–0.85
  4. D1–119 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.12–1.43
  5. W4–012 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.14–0.17
  6. W3–05 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.22

Livingston

  1. W2–126 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–1.22
  2. W2–023 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 2.20–0.05
  3. W2–112 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–1.05
  4. W2–05 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.20–0.42
  5. L0–121 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.46–0.39
  6. D1–16 NovRoss County (A)xG 1.07–0.62

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianLivingston
Position4th6th
Played2119
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠6–⁠57–⁠3–⁠9
Points36 (1.71 per game)24 (1.26 per game)
Expected Points per game1.551.42
Goals30–⁠2022–⁠26
xG per game1.53–⁠1.231.27–⁠1.12
Home: points, xG per game1.40, 1.42–⁠1.401.11, 1.07–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.64–⁠1.081.40, 1.44–⁠0.97
ManagerJack Ross (21)David Martindale (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackHibernian1.28, 3rdLivingston1.06, 5thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.10, 5thLivingston1.17, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.28Livingston attack: 1.061.281.06LivingstonHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.10Livingston defence: 1.171.171.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+23%−16%−2%−28%
Counter-attacks+3%+56%−100%−71%
Set pieces+2%−1%+13%+14%
Penalties+24%+24%−18%+10%
Headers+43%−14%+13%−4%
Left side+2%−8%−16%−35%
Centre+20%−28%+21%−7%
Right side+23%+24%−23%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdLivingston concededLeft side+2%−16%Centre+20%−7%Right side+23%−35%Open play+23%−28%Counter-attacks+3%−71%Set pieces+2%+14%Headers+43%−4%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHibernian concededLeft side−16%+24%Centre+21%−28%Right side−23%−8%Open play−2%−16%Counter-attacks−100%+56%Set pieces+13%−1%Headers+13%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianLivingston

1.53xG1.27
1.23xG against1.12
50%Possession49%
12.2Shots10.4
12.4Shots against9.5
4.1Shots on target2.9
2.0Big chances1.5
20.9Touches in the opposition box19.1
393Passes352
72%Pass accuracy61%
5.5Corners5.1
46%Field tilt52%
39.6Final-third entries34.5
10.8Box entries9.1
14.6Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.741.13
Ahead341.621.38
Behind170.871.20

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.101.02
Ahead141.271.12
Behind301.521.28

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.164–3
16–300.170.146–1
31–450.240.286–6
46–600.200.214–2
61–750.340.175–1
76–900.290.285–7

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.103–2
16–300.240.231–9
31–450.130.242–5
46–600.230.237–8
61–750.260.155–0
76–900.230.174–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 19Barnes 2P. McGinn 19Boyle 1Wright 1Porteous 21P. McGinn 1Hanlon 20Doig 9Stevenson 7Gogic 2Boyle 16Wright 2Newell 2Gogic 10Hallberg 7Wright 2Newell 19Magennis 1Murphy 6Horgan 4Doig 3Nisbet 19Boyle 3Wright 1Doidge 16Gogic 24-4-2 in 13 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcCrorie 10Stryjek 9Devlin 17Robinson 1Ambrose 1Fitzwater 6Ambrose 6Guthrie 18Brown 6Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 12Lawson 2Ambrose 2Bartley 15Pittman 2Holt 9Sibbald 9Forrest 2Mullin 5Robinson 5Fitzwater 3Pittman 12Bartley 3Holt 1Forrest 12Sibbald 3Holt 1Emmanuel-Thomas 5Tiffoney 3Dykes 34-2-3-1 in 10 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 August 2020Livingston1–4HibernianxG 1.42–3.83

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, Livingston won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–1 and xG 3.83–1.42 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet191,6351020.550.10
Doidge161,506510.450.08
Boyle211,879540.270.11
Murphy6544110.150.20

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest141,228300.180.21
Emmanuel-Thomas5490100.340.04
Robinson10948200.190.10
Mullin5467120.040.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.