Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hibernian 2–2 Celtic

Saturday 21 November 2020, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 15 · Half-time 0–0

Hibernian Murphy 52', Nisbet 59'

Celtic Edouard 79' (pen), Laxalt 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianCeltic
Goals22
xG1.541.91
Non-penalty xG0.751.12
Expected Points1.081.62

Hibernian 26%Draw 30%Celtic 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 2–2, 12%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+3%3%2%3%8%3%2%10%6%2%4%4%2%15%15%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGray on for Murphy, 80'Hallberg on for Mallan, 84'S. McGinn on for Newell, 89'Edouard on for Ajeti, 58'Griffiths on for Elyounoussi and Duffy on for Brown, 72'Ntcham on for Rogic, 87'Murphy 52'Nisbet 59'Edouard 79' (pen)Laxalt 90'Celtic 1.91Hibernian 1.5400.511.520153045607590HTGray on for Murphy, 80'Hallberg on for Mallan, 84'S. McGinn on for Newell, 89'Edouard on for Ajeti, 58'Griffiths on for Elyounoussi and Duffy on for Brown, 72'Ntcham on for Rogic, 87'Murphy 52'Nisbet 59'Edouard 79' (pen)Laxalt 90'1.911.54HibernianCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianCeltic

1.54 +0.04xG1.91 −0.30
0.75Non-penalty xG1.12
2.35 +0.89xG on target2.32 −0.30
12 0Shots21 +3
3 −0.8Shots on target12 +5.2
1 −0.8Big chances2 −1.2
15 −9Touches in the opposition box27 +2
31% −17Possession69% +2
264 −114Passes596 +3
63% −7Pass accuracy88% +2
26% −14Field tilt74% +1
20 −17Final-third entries82 +12
9 −2Box entries13 −4
14.2 −1Passes per defensive action9.6 −1
5 −0.2Corners8 +2.1
21 +7Tackles14 +1
11 +2.5Interceptions11 +2.4
35 +14Clearances16 0
10 +7.5Saves1 −0.4
14 +1Fouls10 −2
1 −1.2Offsides1 −0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Boyle 14', 0.10 xGPorteous 68', 0.09 xGMackie 90+3', 0.09 xGBoyle 23', 0.07 xGMurphy 15', 0.05 xGNewell 39', 0.05 xGNisbet 66', 0.05 xGP. McGinn 90+3', 0.04 xGNisbet 90+4', 0.04 xGMurphy 52', 0.10 xG, goalNisbet 59', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.45 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal23%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal17%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Laxalt 17', 0.18 xGElyounoussi 43', 0.14 xGElyounoussi 37', 0.08 xGElyounoussi 54', 0.07 xGElyounoussi 33', 0.05 xGEdouard 71', 0.05 xGEdouard 74', 0.05 xGLaxalt 76', 0.05 xGRogic 87', 0.05 xGChristie 5', 0.04 xGElyounoussi 12', 0.04 xGChristie 26', 0.04 xGChristie 42', 0.04 xGChristie 37', 0.03 xGChristie 50', 0.03 xGMcGregor 81', 0.03 xGChristie 86', 0.03 xGChristie 34', 0.02 xGElyounoussi 54', 0.02 xGLaxalt 90+1', 0.07 xG, goal13%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals18%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal29%0.32 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals34%0.38 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianCeltic

0.56 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.73 15 shots, 0 goals
0.19 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.39 5 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
56 min (60%) · Hibernian 1.32, Celtic 0.70 xG
Hibernian ahead
38 min (40%) · Hibernian 0.22, Celtic 1.20 xG

Line-ups

165426101413111815MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonMackieBoyleMallanGogicNewellMurphyNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal84'89'80'Hibernian 4-5-1Jack Ross29306359384217182710BainFrimpongBittonAjerLaxaltBrownMcGregorChristieRogicElyounoussiAjetiGoal72'87'72'58'Celtic 4-2-3-1Neil Lennon

Hibernian substitutes

  • 80' Gray for Murphy
  • 84' Hallberg for Mallan
  • 89' S. McGinn for Newell

Celtic substitutes

  • 58' Edouard for Ajeti · goal 79' (pen)
  • 72' Duffy for Brown
  • 72' Griffiths for Elyounoussi
  • 87' Ntcham for Rogic

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0232
P. McGinnRB900.040.0100.0135
PorteousCB900.090.0000.02220
Hanlon CB900.000.010−0.0109
Mackie LB900.090.0010.01311
Boyle RM900.170.0100.0726
Mallan CM840.000.1510.0141
GogicCM900.000.0200.0436
NewellCM890.050.2630.0854
MurphyLM80110.150.3020.2662
NisbetST9010.960.0000.0316
GrayDF100.000.0000.0111
HallbergMF60.000.0000.0000
S. McGinnMF10.000.0000.0010

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0221
FrimpongRB900.000.1010.17113
BittonCB900.000.0100.0865
AjerCB900.000.0410.211913
LaxaltLB9010.290.0500.11137
BrownDM720.000.0520.0436
McGregorDM900.030.1020.19131
ChristieRW900.240.2930.28115
RogicAM870.050.0620.0411
ElyounoussiLW720.410.010−0.0111
AjetiST580.000.482−0.1101
EdouardFW3210.880.0300.0510
DuffyDF180.000.0000.0002
GriffithsFW180.000.021−0.1100
NtchamMF30.000.0000.0120

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marciano and Porteous: 3 passesMarciano and Mackie: 3 passesMarciano and Murphy: 3 passesMarciano and Nisbet: 3 passesP. McGinn and Gogic: 3 passesPorteous and Newell: 3 passesNewell and Murphy: 3 passesP. McGinn and Nisbet: 4 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 4 passesPorteous and Mallan: 4 passesBoyle and Newell: 4 passesMallan and Murphy: 4 passesMallan and Nisbet: 4 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 5 passesMackie and Gogic: 5 passesBoyle and Murphy: 5 passesGogic and Newell: 5 passesNewell and Nisbet: 5 passesPorteous and Mackie: 6 passesNewell and Mallan: 7 passesHanlon and Mackie: 8 passesMackie and Newell: 9 passesMackie and Murphy: 9 passesP. McGinn and Boyle: 10 passesP. McGinn and Mallan: 19 passesMarciano: 11 completed passesP. McGinn: 30 completed passesPorteous: 15 completed passesHanlon: 11 completed passesMackie: 21 completed passesBoyle: 8 completed passesGogic: 12 completed passesNewell: 19 completed passesMallan: 18 completed passesMurphy: 16 completed passesNisbet: 10 completed passes165426101311141815MarcianoP. McGinnPorteousHanlonMackieBoyleGogicNewellMallanMurphyNisbetStarters until 80' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Ajer and Christie: 6 passesMcGregor and Rogic: 6 passesChristie and Ajeti: 6 passesFrimpong and McGregor: 7 passesBitton and McGregor: 7 passesChristie and Elyounoussi: 7 passesMcGregor and Christie: 8 passesFrimpong and Bitton: 10 passesAjer and Elyounoussi: 10 passesFrimpong and Rogic: 11 passesBrown and Christie: 11 passesBain and Ajer: 12 passesFrimpong and Christie: 12 passesLaxalt and Elyounoussi: 12 passesFrimpong and Brown: 14 passesMcGregor and Elyounoussi: 14 passesBitton and Ajer: 15 passesBitton and Brown: 15 passesAjer and Laxalt: 16 passesAjer and Brown: 16 passesBrown and McGregor: 19 passesLaxalt and McGregor: 21 passesAjer and McGregor: 28 passesBain: 16 completed passesFrimpong: 34 completed passesBitton: 33 completed passesAjer: 59 completed passesLaxalt: 35 completed passesBrown: 48 completed passesMcGregor: 58 completed passesChristie: 24 completed passesRogic: 16 completed passesElyounoussi: 19 completed passesAjeti: 11 completed passes29306359384217182710BainFrimpongBittonAjerLaxaltBrownMcGregorChristieRogicElyounoussiAjetiStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
P. McGinnMallan13
MallanP. McGinn6
MackieNewell6
MackieHanlon5
MurphyMackie5

Celtic

FromToPasses
AjerMcGregor23
AjerLaxalt20
McGregorChristie16
McGregorAjer15
LaxaltElyounoussi14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

7+1.911+6.227+11.77−0.36−0.53−3.76−1.113+4.27+0.98+0.92−3.48+2.52−2.610+3.86+1.75+1.42−1.05+3.64+0.54+0.52+0.90−1.50−0.81−0.10−1.50−0.80−0.60−1.20−0.50−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Celtic

4+0.13−1.89−1.05+1.06+1.05−2.78+2.36+2.17+0.911+3.25−0.12−3.85+2.67+2.29+3.20−3.58+4.79+6.54−0.23−1.10−1.91−1.21−0.71−1.62−0.70−0.41+0.52+1.10−0.80−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.03−0.010.030.010.030.040.020.040.010.030.02−0.020.010.18LessMore

Celtic

0.020.010.010.040.010.020.020.070.050.070.080.100.010.110.110.060.020.030.070.02−0.150.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHibernian1.22 → 1.27Celtic2.15 → 2.16Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14 → 1.14Celtic0.78 → 0.85

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six97%98%+1
Celtic
Title20%16%−4
Rangers
Title80%84%+4
Motherwell
Top six59%59%0
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (21 November 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals0.852.03
Win14%64%
Expected Points0.642.14
Clean sheet13%43%

Hibernian 14%Draw 21%Celtic 64%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%8%4%2%4%7%3%1%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 November 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Hibernian
Top six97%99%98%96%
Celtic
Title20%11%16%24%
Rangers
Title80%89%84%76%
Motherwell
Top six59%54%59%60%
11th2%3%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–26 NovAberdeen (A)xG 0.67–0.88
  2. W1–024 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.50–0.97
  3. D0–017 OctRoss County (A)xG 2.70–0.63
  4. W3–22 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.97–1.80
  5. L0–327 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.60–1.94
  6. D2–220 SepRangers (H)xG 0.60–3.01

Celtic

  1. W4–18 NovMotherwell (A)xG 2.84–1.66
  2. D3–325 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.04–2.76
  3. L0–217 OctRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.50
  4. W2–04 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.71–0.63
  5. W3–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.94–0.60
  6. W3–219 SepLivingston (H)xG 1.58–1.35

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position4th2nd
Played1312
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠39–⁠2–⁠1
Points24 (1.85 per game)29 (2.42 per game)
Expected Points per game1.532.00
Goals17–⁠1232–⁠11
xG per game1.50–⁠1.272.21–⁠1.04
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.33–⁠1.632.40, 2.13–⁠0.83
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.60–⁠1.052.43, 2.26–⁠1.19
ManagerJack Ross (13)Neil Lennon (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHibernian1.22, 4thCeltic2.15, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14, 5thCeltic0.78, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovHibernian attack: 1.22Celtic attack: 2.152.151.22CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovHibernian defence: 1.14Celtic defence: 0.781.140.78

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+15%−16%+78%−45%
Counter-attacks−72%−87%+368%−20%
Set pieces+9%average+10%−13%
Penalties+11%+48%+20%+60%
Headers+49%−11%−5%−41%
Left side+9%+2%+60%−23%
Centre+22%−41%+73%−28%
Right side−8%+20%+68%−59%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+9%−59%Centre+22%−28%Right side−8%−23%Open play+15%−45%Counter-attacks−72%−20%Set pieces+9%−13%Headers+49%−41%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+60%+20%Centre+73%−41%Right side+68%+2%Open play+78%−16%Counter-attacks+368%−87%Set pieces+10%averageHeaders−5%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.50xG2.21
1.27xG against1.04
48%Possession67%
12.3Shots17.7
12.9Shots against8.4
3.8Shots on target6.8
1.8Big chances3.2
23.8Touches in the opposition box24.6
378Passes593
70%Pass accuracy86%
5.2Corners5.9
41%Field tilt72%
37.3Final-third entries69.9
11.5Box entries17.1
15.3Passes per defensive action10.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.751.15
Ahead321.611.48
Behind180.711.22

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level362.151.10
Ahead442.441.03
Behind101.390.86

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.192–3
16–300.210.095–0
31–450.260.324–4
46–600.090.271–2
61–750.350.173–1
76–900.310.232–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.174–2
16–300.300.226–2
31–450.390.104–2
46–600.360.215–1
61–750.430.183–2
76–900.450.1510–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 13P. McGinn 12Boyle 1Porteous 13Hanlon 13Doig 7Stevenson 3Gogic 2Boyle 10P. McGinn 1Newell 1Gogic 9Wright 2Boyle 1Newell 12Magennis 1Horgan 4Doig 3Murphy 3Doidge 12Boyle 1Wright 1Nisbet 114-4-2 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-5-2 (3), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 9Bain 3Frimpong 6Elhamed 3Bitton 1Duffy 6Jullien 5Ajer 10Bitton 2Welsh 1Taylor 5Laxalt 2Edouard 2Brown 6Christie 2Frimpong 1McGregor 12Ntcham 2Forrest 1Christie 3Frimpong 3Forrest 3Ntcham 4Brown 3Christie 2Elyounoussi 4Taylor 3Edouard 2Ajeti 3Elyounoussi 3Klimala 24-2-3-1 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 September 2020Celtic3–0HibernianxG 1.94–0.60

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hibernian won 0, Celtic won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–3 and xG 0.60–1.94 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet11950710.640.07
Doidge121,093310.340.09
Boyle131,167330.220.13
Newell131,032120.040.22

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard6545410.810.16
Christie9806340.400.32
Elyounoussi9663410.580.11
Forrest5484210.280.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.