Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 1–1 Hibernian

Monday 11 January 2021, 19:45 · Celtic Park · Round 23 · Half-time 0–0

Celtic Turnbull 82'

Hibernian Nisbet 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHibernian
Goals11
xG0.971.83
Expected Points0.722.02

Celtic 15%Draw 26%Hibernian 59%

Most likely score 1–2, 15%. Final score 1–1, 14%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%10%6%2%4%8%2%2%6%7%4%1%1%1%11%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTOko-Flex on for Harper, 61'Henderson on for Rogic, 67'Dembélé on for Johnston, 79'Stevenson on for Doig, 46'Doidge on for Wright, 52'Mallan on for Newell, 68'S. McGinn on for Hallberg, 80'Turnbull 82'Nisbet 90'Hibernian 1.83Celtic 0.9700.511.520153045607590HTOko-Flex on for Harper, 61'Henderson on for Rogic, 67'Dembélé on for Johnston, 79'Stevenson on for Doig, 46'Doidge on for Wright, 52'Mallan on for Newell, 68'S. McGinn on for Hallberg, 80'Turnbull 82'Nisbet 90'1.830.97CelticHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHibernian

0.97 −1.16xG1.83 +0.35
1.14 −1.23xG on target2.39 +0.89
10 −9Shots16 +4
6 −1.2Shots on target7 +3.0
2 −0.9Big chances2 +0.1
7 −23Touches in the opposition box21 +1
58% −9Possession42% −8
481 −108Passes316 −82
84% −1Pass accuracy72% 0
65% −8Field tilt35% −12
59 −10Final-third entries35 −5
6 −11Box entries9 −2
10.3 +0.4Passes per defensive action9.7 −4.6
3 −3.6Corners10 +4.5
14 +1Tackles22 +8
14 +4.4Interceptions16 +6.8
22 +8Clearances10 −10
5 +3.7Saves5 +2.3
9 −3Fouls15 +3
1 −0.3Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

McGregor 45', 0.40 xGHarper 25', 0.29 xGTurnbull 10', 0.03 xGRogic 27', 0.03 xGSoro 43', 0.03 xGLaxalt 44', 0.03 xGRogic 47', 0.03 xGMcGregor 49', 0.03 xGJohnston 71', 0.03 xGTurnbull 82', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.68 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals21%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal8%0.08 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Hallberg 62', 0.54 xGHanlon 6', 0.10 xGDoidge 89', 0.09 xGNisbet 9', 0.07 xGP. McGinn 90+1', 0.07 xGNisbet 4', 0.06 xGNisbet 73', 0.06 xGMallan 90+2', 0.05 xGMurphy 3', 0.04 xGNewell 6', 0.04 xGNewell 62', 0.04 xGMurphy 86', 0.04 xGMallan 89', 0.04 xGGogic 30', 0.03 xGMallan 79', 0.03 xGNisbet 90+1', 0.52 xG, goal31%0.57 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.57 xG, 1 goal48%0.87 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.87 xG, 0 goals9%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals10%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHibernian

0.89 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.01 11 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.75 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
84 min (91%) · Celtic 0.97, Hibernian 1.13 xG
Celtic ahead
8 min (9%) · Celtic 0.00, Hibernian 0.70 xG

Line-ups

653057493124214181953HazardFrimpongWelshDuffyLaxaltSoroMcGregorTurnbullRogicJohnstonHarperYellow cardGoal67'79'61'Celtic 4-2-3-1Neil Lennon336542581113201518MaceyP. McGinnPorteousHanlonDoigWrightNewellGogicHallbergNisbetMurphyYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'52'68'80'Hibernian 4-1-2-1-2Jack Ross

Celtic substitutes

  • 61' Oko-Flex for Harper
  • 67' Henderson for Rogic
  • 79' Dembélé for Johnston

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Stevenson for Doig
  • 52' Doidge for Wright
  • 68' Mallan for Newell
  • 80' S. McGinn for Hallberg

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HazardGK900.000.0000.0002
FrimpongRB900.000.0210.0773
WelshCB900.000.0000.07611
DuffyCB900.000.0100.12712
LaxaltLB900.030.0310.1298
Soro DM900.030.0200.0766
McGregorDM900.430.0700.19154
TurnbullRW9010.110.2820.0171
RogicAM670.060.020−0.0125
JohnstonLW790.030.0630.0630
HarperST610.290.020−0.0201
Oko-FlexFW290.000.0100.0100
HendersonMF230.000.0000.0101
DembéléFW110.000.0000.0101

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MaceyGK900.000.0000.0012
P. McGinnRB900.070.2340.33107
Porteous CB900.000.0100.0644
HanlonCB900.100.0100.0657
DoigLB460.000.0000.0115
WrightDM520.000.0100.0022
NewellCM680.080.3120.1515
GogicCM900.030.0000.0246
Hallberg AM800.540.2920.0201
NisbetST9010.710.0310.0111
MurphyST900.080.0310.14103
StevensonMF440.000.0510.15103
DoidgeFW380.090.010−0.0810
MallanFW220.120.2510.0722
S. McGinnMF100.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Hazard and Duffy: 6 passesFrimpong and Rogic: 6 passesDuffy and Turnbull: 6 passesHazard and Welsh: 7 passesMcGregor and Rogic: 7 passesMcGregor and Harper: 7 passesTurnbull and Rogic: 7 passesJohnston and Harper: 7 passesFrimpong and Soro: 8 passesSoro and Rogic: 8 passesDuffy and Johnston: 9 passesLaxalt and Johnston: 9 passesSoro and Turnbull: 9 passesFrimpong and Harper: 10 passesMcGregor and Soro: 10 passesMcGregor and Johnston: 10 passesDuffy and McGregor: 11 passesWelsh and Turnbull: 11 passesFrimpong and Welsh: 12 passesWelsh and Soro: 12 passesDuffy and Soro: 14 passesDuffy and Laxalt: 16 passesDuffy and Welsh: 17 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 18 passesFrimpong and Turnbull: 20 passesLaxalt and McGregor: 27 passesHazard: 12 completed passesFrimpong: 35 completed passesDuffy: 44 completed passesWelsh: 39 completed passesLaxalt: 33 completed passesMcGregor: 50 completed passesSoro: 36 completed passesTurnbull: 38 completed passesRogic: 17 completed passesJohnston: 18 completed passesHarper: 13 completed passes653045793421214181953HazardFrimpongDuffyWelshLaxaltMcGregorSoroTurnbullRogicJohnstonHarperStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Hibernian

P. McGinn and Murphy: 3 passesP. McGinn and Nisbet: 3 passesPorteous and Doig: 3 passesPorteous and Gogic: 3 passesHanlon and Doig: 3 passesHanlon and Murphy: 3 passesGogic and Newell: 3 passesGogic and Nisbet: 3 passesHallberg and Wright: 3 passesNewell and Murphy: 3 passesMurphy and Nisbet: 3 passesP. McGinn and Newell: 4 passesWright and Murphy: 4 passesP. McGinn and Wright: 5 passesPorteous and Newell: 5 passesMacey and Porteous: 6 passesDoig and Murphy: 6 passesWright and Newell: 6 passesP. McGinn and Porteous: 7 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 10 passesMacey: 7 completed passesP. McGinn: 14 completed passesPorteous: 20 completed passesHanlon: 13 completed passesDoig: 10 completed passesGogic: 11 completed passesHallberg: 5 completed passesWright: 12 completed passesNewell: 12 completed passesMurphy: 8 completed passesNisbet: 6 completed passes336542513208111815MaceyP. McGinnPorteousHanlonDoigGogicHallbergWrightNewellMurphyNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorLaxalt18
TurnbullMcGregor16
FrimpongTurnbull15
DuffyLaxalt14
McGregorTurnbull13

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonPorteous8
P. McGinnWright7
PorteousHanlon7
MurphyP. McGinn6
NewellPorteous6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

8+3.814+9.814+5.52−1.77+2.67−0.811+5.53−1.28+1.38−0.47+1.46+0.38+5.24−0.64−2.53−1.06+2.12−1.35+0.84−0.10−2.12−0.20−2.13+0.54+1.31+0.70−0.60−0.80−0.73+2.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Hibernian

4−0.74−1.11−5.74−1.89+2.614+6.514+5.912+5.68+0.86+0.44−1.63−1.910+4.37+1.73−0.82−1.15+3.30−3.311+7.04+2.42+0.81+0.23+1.96+4.42+1.42+1.52+0.90−0.40−0.73−10.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.030.010.040.020.010.030.050.040.030.030.020.070.020.080.02−0.020.040.07−0.01−0.03−0.010.13LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.020.020.030.040.070.040.010.010.020.030.120.18−0.020.11−0.04−0.05−0.010.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackCeltic2.00 → 1.95Hibernian1.24 → 1.26Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.74 → 0.78Hibernian1.13 → 1.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (11 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHibernian
Expected goals2.030.81
Win65%14%
Expected Points2.170.62
Clean sheet45%13%

Celtic 65%Draw 21%Hibernian 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Hibernian goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+6%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%7%3%4%3%1%2%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHibernian win
Celtic
Title2%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L0–12 JanRangers (A)xG 0.61–0.58
  2. W3–030 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.09–0.95
  3. W3–026 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.69–0.09
  4. W2–023 DecRoss County (H)xG 2.15–0.29
  5. W2–013 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.83–0.79
  6. D1–16 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.73–1.30

Hibernian

  1. L0–32 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.49–1.18
  2. L0–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.69
  3. L0–126 DecRangers (A)xG 0.95–2.08
  4. W1–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.86–0.85
  5. D1–119 DecDundee United (H)xG 2.12–1.43
  6. W4–012 DecHamilton Academical (A)xG 3.14–0.17

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHibernian
Position2nd4th
Played1922
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠4–⁠210–⁠6–⁠6
Points43 (2.26 per game)36 (1.64 per game)
Expected Points per game2.031.51
Goals45–⁠1530–⁠23
xG per game2.13–⁠0.951.48–⁠1.23
Home: points, xG per game2.44, 2.05–⁠0.831.27, 1.33–⁠1.38
Away: points, xG per game2.10, 2.20–⁠1.052.00, 1.64–⁠1.08
ManagerNeil Lennon (19)Jack Ross (22)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackCeltic2.00, 2ndHibernian1.24, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.74, 2ndHibernian1.13, 5th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanCeltic attack: 2.00Hibernian attack: 1.242.001.24HibernianCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanCeltic defence: 0.74Hibernian defence: 1.131.130.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+77%−43%+20%−15%
Counter-attacks+236%−44%−1%+49%
Set pieces+29%−15%+4%+3%
Penalties+39%+39%+20%+20%
Headers+11%−51%+42%−19%
Left side+76%−29%+1%−9%
Centre+70%−29%+18%−24%
Right side+59%−54%+21%+25%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+76%+25%Centre+70%−24%Right side+59%−9%Open play+77%−15%Counter-attacks+236%+49%Set pieces+29%+3%Headers+11%−19%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+1%−54%Centre+18%−29%Right side+21%−29%Open play+20%−43%Counter-attacks−1%−44%Set pieces+4%−15%Headers+42%−51%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHibernian

2.13xG1.48
0.95xG against1.23
67%Possession50%
18.9Shots11.9
7.7Shots against12.4
7.2Shots on target4.0
2.9Big chances1.9
29.7Touches in the opposition box20.4
590Passes398
85%Pass accuracy72%
6.6Corners5.5
73%Field tilt47%
68.7Final-third entries40.1
17.4Box entries10.6
9.9Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.040.97
Ahead382.370.98
Behind101.580.74

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.721.13
Ahead321.621.38
Behind200.811.20

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.144–2
16–300.300.168–2
31–450.360.085–2
46–600.370.218–3
61–750.410.196–3
76–900.420.1714–3

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.154–4
16–300.160.176–2
31–450.230.276–6
46–600.190.214–3
61–750.330.165–1
76–900.290.275–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 12Bain 4Hazard 3Frimpong 13Elhamed 3Bitton 1Jullien 9Duffy 7Bitton 5Ajer 16Welsh 1Laxalt 7Taylor 7Edouard 2Brown 7Soro 5Christie 3McGregor 19Ntcham 2Forrest 1Christie 8Frimpong 3Forrest 3Turnbull 6Ntcham 4Brown 3Edouard 6Elyounoussi 6Taylor 3Edouard 4Griffiths 4Ajeti 44-2-3-1 in 8 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-3-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 20Barnes 2P. McGinn 20Boyle 1Wright 1Porteous 22P. McGinn 1Hanlon 21Doig 9Stevenson 8Gogic 2Boyle 17Newell 2Wright 2Gogic 10Hallberg 7Mallan 3Newell 19Nisbet 1Magennis 1Murphy 6Horgan 4Doig 3Nisbet 19Boyle 3Wright 1Doidge 17Gogic 34-4-2 in 13 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 3-5-2 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 November 2020Hibernian2–2CelticxG 1.54–1.91
27 September 2020Celtic3–0HibernianxG 1.94–0.60

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 1, Hibernian won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–2 and xG 1.92–1.07 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard121,055720.820.18
Turnbull6525320.310.49
Elyounoussi11872610.590.11
Christie151,325360.310.28

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet201,7251020.520.10
Doidge171,573510.430.08
Mallan4485100.210.28
Boyle221,969540.260.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.