Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 0–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 26 December 2020, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 20 · Half-time 0–0

Ross County Reid sent off 36' · Draper sent off 60'

St. Mirren Fraser 76', Dennis 85'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals02
xG0.541.79
Expected Points0.512.27

Ross County 9%Draw 23%St. Mirren 68%

Most likely score 0–1, 17%. Final score 0–2, 16%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%9%4%1%5%12%10%6%2%1%2%3%1%17%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTReid (Ross County), second yellow card 36'Draper (Ross County), second yellow card 60'Tremarco on for Vigurs, 39'Tillson on for Hylton, 65'McKay on for Watson and Donaldson on for Tremarco, 82'Obika on for Erwin and Durmus on for McAllister, 57'MacPherson on for McGrath and Dennis on for Erhahon, 65'Flynn on for Fraser, 86'Fraser 76'Dennis 85'St. Mirren 1.79Ross County 0.5400.511.520153045607590HTReid (Ross County), second yellow card 36'Draper (Ross County), second yellow card 60'Tremarco on for Vigurs, 39'Tillson on for Hylton, 65'McKay on for Watson and Donaldson on for Tremarco, 82'Obika on for Erwin and Durmus on for McAllister, 57'MacPherson on for McGrath and Dennis on for Erhahon, 65'Flynn on for Fraser, 86'Fraser 76'Dennis 85'1.790.54Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.54 −0.46xG1.79 +0.74
0.28 −0.27xG on target1.63 +0.77
8 −2Shots24 +12
4 +1.5Shots on target9 +5.6
1 −0.2Big chances2 +0.9
12 −4Touches in the opposition box40 +23
38% −11Possession62% +17
252 −152Passes389 +45
64% −8Pass accuracy80% +15
30% −20Field tilt70% +27
28 −13Final-third entries48 +14
4 −4.1Box entries22 +14.8
15.8 +1Passes per defensive action10.1 −4
3 −1.1Corners14 +9.6
22 +9Tackles13 0
15 +5Interceptions14 +3
36 +13Clearances12 −10
7 +4.4Saves5 +1.1
15 +1Fouls10 −2
0 −1.7Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Kelly 13', 0.22 xGIacovitti 4', 0.09 xGDraper 1', 0.06 xGDraper 10', 0.04 xGKelly 35', 0.04 xGShaw 89', 0.03 xGPaton 90', 0.03 xGHylton 29', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals76%0.41 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Tait 77', 0.29 xGShaughnessy 71', 0.16 xGObika 64', 0.13 xGDennis 67', 0.08 xGShaughnessy 62', 0.07 xGMcAllister 17', 0.06 xGMorias 56', 0.06 xGMacPherson 67', 0.06 xGDurmus 71', 0.06 xGErwin 38', 0.05 xGDennis 71', 0.05 xGFraser 47', 0.04 xGDurmus 68', 0.04 xGMacPherson 80', 0.04 xGMorias 84', 0.04 xGMacPherson 90', 0.04 xGDurmus 90+1', 0.04 xGMorias 29', 0.03 xGMorias 58', 0.03 xGMorias 67', 0.03 xGDurmus 87', 0.03 xGDennis 90+1', 0.03 xGDennis 85', 0.29 xG, goalFraser 76', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%1.07 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.07 xG, 1 goal13%0.23 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals24%0.43 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.43 xG, 1 goal3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.41 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.05 15 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.74 9 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
76 min (84%) · Ross County 0.48, St. Mirren 0.98 xG
St. Mirren ahead
15 min (16%) · Ross County 0.06, St. Mirren 0.81 xG

Line-ups

115516431124618148LaidlawWatsonMorrisIacovittiReidVigursPatonDraperKellyHyltonShawYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow cardSent off, second yellow82'39'65'Ross County 4-1-4-1John Hughes12254210177251923AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMcAllisterMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonMoriasErwinYellow cardGoal86'57'65'65'57'St. Mirren 4-5-1Jim Goodwin

Ross County substitutes

  • 39' Tremarco for Vigurs · off 82'
  • 65' Tillson for Hylton
  • 82' Donaldson for Tremarco
  • 82' McKay for Watson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 57' Durmus for McAllister · 1 assist
  • 57' Obika for Erwin
  • 65' MacPherson for McGrath
  • 65' Dennis for Erhahon · goal 85'
  • 86' Flynn for Fraser

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0462
WatsonRB820.000.0000.01311
MorrisCB900.000.0000.04517
IacovittiCB900.090.0100.02217
Reid LB360.000.0000.0340
VigursDM390.000.0100.0223
PatonRM900.030.0210.0426
Draper CM600.100.0200.0334
KellyCM900.270.5830.1826
HyltonLM650.020.0410.0704
ShawST900.030.0800.0014
TremarcoDF430.000.000−0.0104
TillsonMF250.000.0000.0101
DonaldsonDF80.000.0000.0102
McKayFW80.000.0110.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Alnwick GK900.000.0100.0530
FraserRB8610.070.0620.0296
McCarthyCB900.000.2610.1398
ShaughnessyCB900.230.0100.0537
TaitLB900.290.1100.2253
McAllisterRM570.060.0100.0450
McGrathCM650.000.3140.2321
Doyle-HayesCM900.000.0210.0846
ErhahonCM650.000.1210.1912
MoriasLM900.190.4220.60111
ErwinST570.050.030−0.1601
DurmusFW3310.170.1510.1940
ObikaFW330.130.0010.0221
MacPhersonMF250.140.0800.0103
DennisFW2510.450.0910.0910
FlynnMF40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Shaw: 3 passesWatson and Paton: 3 passesIacovitti and Kelly: 3 passesMorris and Paton: 3 passesReid and Paton: 3 passesDraper and Kelly: 3 passesDraper and Shaw: 3 passesKelly and Shaw: 3 passesWatson and Vigurs: 4 passesIacovitti and Morris: 4 passesVigurs and Kelly: 4 passesVigurs and Hylton: 4 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 5 passesWatson and Morris: 5 passesReid and Kelly: 5 passesVigurs and Paton: 5 passesReid and Vigurs: 6 passesPaton and Kelly: 6 passesPaton and Shaw: 6 passesLaidlaw: 8 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesIacovitti: 8 completed passesMorris: 11 completed passesReid: 12 completed passesVigurs: 16 completed passesPaton: 14 completed passesDraper: 5 completed passesKelly: 14 completed passesHylton: 4 completed passesShaw: 8 completed passes115165431124618148LaidlawWatsonIacovittiMorrisReidVigursPatonDraperKellyHyltonShawStarters until 36' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Alnwick and Erwin: 4 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 4 passesTait and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesMcAllister and McGrath: 4 passesMorias and Erwin: 4 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 5 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 5 passesFraser and McCarthy: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 5 passesErhahon and Morias: 5 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesMcCarthy and Tait: 6 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 6 passesFraser and McGrath: 7 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 7 passesMcAllister and Doyle-Hayes: 8 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 9 passesTait and Morias: 10 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 11 passesTait and Erhahon: 11 passesFraser and McAllister: 12 passesAlnwick: 12 completed passesFraser: 22 completed passesShaughnessy: 22 completed passesMcCarthy: 23 completed passesTait: 24 completed passesMcAllister: 14 completed passesMcGrath: 11 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 25 completed passesErhahon: 19 completed passesMorias: 7 completed passesErwin: 8 completed passes12245210177251923AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitMcAllisterMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonMoriasErwinStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
PatonShaw6
LaidlawShaw5
WatsonPaton5
PatonKelly5
IacovittiLaidlaw5

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ShaughnessyTait11
FraserDoyle-Hayes9
TaitMorias8
Doyle-HayesFraser8
AlnwickMcCarthy8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

16+11.38+1.824+9.119+10.71−4.012+4.410+3.77−0.78−1.68+0.41−3.82−3.03−0.74−0.80−6.04−0.22−1.22−0.72−1.61−3.620.02+0.71−0.11−0.520.00−0.80−0.30−0.52+1.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.811−3.04−2.14−1.47−0.28−0.411+3.27−1.13−1.79+2.74−0.23−1.93−3.64−0.61−3.11−2.14+0.63−1.01−1.40−1.80−0.94+1.84+1.61+0.11+0.93+2.31+0.81+0.31−5.51−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.010.010.020.010.010.020.020.030.030.020.010.010.020.010.09−0.01−0.010.010.010.16LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.040.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.040.070.020.030.030.090.100.080.050.080.080.010.050.030.210.080.13−0.180.330.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackRoss County0.88 → 0.85St. Mirren0.93 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.57 → 1.59St. Mirren1.25 → 1.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six<1%<1%0
Bottom40%47%+7
St. Mirren
Top six31%40%+9
11th6%3%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Hamilton Academical
11th31%36%+5
Bottom51%47%−4
Dundee United
Top six42%40%−2
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (26 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals0.961.23
Win28%42%
Expected Points1.151.55
Clean sheet29%38%

Ross County 28%Draw 30%St. Mirren 42%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%3%1%8%3%1%5%6%4%2%2%2%1%12%13%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
Top six<1%1%<1%<1%
Bottom40%28%41%47%
St. Mirren
Top six31%22%26%40%
11th6%10%7%3%
Bottom2%4%2%1%
Hamilton Academical
11th31%23%31%36%
Bottom51%57%50%47%
Dundee United
Top six42%45%42%40%
11th2%3%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–223 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.15
  2. L0–219 DecHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.91–0.80
  3. L0–212 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.80–1.19
  4. L0–46 DecRangers (H)xG 0.74–3.28
  5. L1–321 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 1.87–2.12
  6. D1–16 NovLivingston (H)xG 0.62–1.07

St. Mirren

  1. L0–123 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.85–0.86
  2. W3–219 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.07–1.03
  3. W1–012 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.78
  4. D1–15 DecAberdeen (H)xG 2.58–0.39
  5. W1–021 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.39–0.46
  6. D0–06 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.38–0.20

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position12th7th
Played1916
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠4–⁠125–⁠3–⁠8
Points13 (0.68 per game)18 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game0.861.24
Goals10–⁠3612–⁠19
xG per game1.00–⁠1.851.05–⁠1.28
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 0.99–⁠2.091.12, 1.28–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game0.70, 1.01–⁠1.631.12, 0.83–⁠1.52
ManagerJohn Hughes (1)Jim Goodwin (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.21AttackRoss County0.88, 12thSt. Mirren0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.57, 11thSt. Mirren1.25, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County attack: 0.88St. Mirren attack: 0.930.930.88St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County defence: 1.57St. Mirren defence: 1.251.571.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%+37%−22%+16%
Counter-attacks−73%−58%−38%−100%
Set pieces−20%+23%+9%−22%
Penalties−45%+119%−68%−35%
Headers+11%+5%−20%+19%
Left side−23%+22%+2%−4%
Centre−27%+49%−3%−25%
Right side−10%+3%−47%+54%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−23%+54%Centre−27%−25%Right side−10%−4%Open play−19%+16%Counter-attacks−73%−100%Set pieces−20%−22%Headers+11%+19%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side+2%+3%Centre−3%+49%Right side−47%+22%Open play−22%+37%Counter-attacks−38%−58%Set pieces+9%+23%Headers−20%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.00xG1.05
1.85xG against1.28
49%Possession45%
10.0Shots11.5
13.4Shots against13.3
2.5Shots on target3.4
1.2Big chances1.1
15.9Touches in the opposition box17.0
404Passes344
73%Pass accuracy65%
4.1Corners4.4
50%Field tilt42%
40.6Final-third entries34.0
8.1Box entries7.2
14.8Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.921.94
Ahead110.391.65
Behind401.241.81

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.221.23
Ahead210.761.27
Behind291.041.35

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.311–4
16–300.130.283–6
31–450.170.192–3
46–600.160.370–8
61–750.210.431–10
76–900.210.263–5

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.183–1
16–300.190.242–6
31–450.210.202–4
46–600.120.262–2
61–750.080.251–5
76–900.270.152–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 14Doohan 5Randall 10Watson 2Charles-Cook 2Donaldson 16Watson 2Iacovitti 15Morris 4Grivosti 1Reid 16Stewart 1Watson 1Vigurs 5Draper 4Iacovitti 3Gardyne 4Charles-Cook 3Stewart 2Paton 11Tillson 7Gardyne 4Vigurs 9Kelly 3Draper 1Stewart 6Gardyne 6Paton 2Stewart 9McKay 6Shaw 44-1-4-1 in 5 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (5), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-5-1 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 13Zlamal 3Fraser 14MacPherson 1Tait 1McCarthy 15Shaughnessy 13Foley 3Tait 1Tait 11Fraser 2Obika 2McAllister 5Connolly 4Morias 2Foley 7Sheron 6Durmus 1McGrath 13Doyle-Ha… 4Doyle-HayesObika 1Erhahon 10MacPhers… 5MacPhersonConnolly 1Durmus 6Mason 3Obika 3Erwin 6Obika 5Morias 34-5-1 in 4 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 August 2020St. Mirren1–1Ross CountyxG 1.31–2.21

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, St. Mirren won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–1 and xG 2.21–1.31 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart191,650210.370.06
McKay8781100.250.12
Gardyne141,160000.070.22
Kelly5568020.080.20

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika111,009300.330.07
Erwin6657200.330.02
Morias6574000.260.04
McGrath161,323210.140.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.