Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

St. Johnstone v Aberdeen

Saturday 26 December 2026, 15:00 · McDiarmid Park · Round 20

Forecast

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
Expected goals1.361.14
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.521.20
Clean sheet32%26%

St. Johnstone 41%Draw 28%Aberdeen 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. W1–011 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.10–1.23
  2. D1–119 SepFalkirk (H)xG 0.94–1.29
  3. L0–19 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.69–1.80
  4. W2–16 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.32–1.61
  5. D1–12 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.08–2.07
  6. L1–229 AugHearts (A)xG 1.28–2.20

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
Position5th8th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠32–⁠2–⁠4
Points11 (1.38 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.170.98
Goals10–⁠107–⁠9
xG per game1.33–⁠1.591.04–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.49–⁠1.411.00, 1.33–⁠1.54
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.16–⁠1.771.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerSimo Valakari (39)Stephen Robinson (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Johnstone1.07, 12thAberdeen1.11, 10thDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.56, 11thAberdeen1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone attack: 1.07Aberdeen attack: 1.111.111.07AberdeenSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctSt. Johnstone defence: 1.56Aberdeen defence: 1.471.561.47

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+11%−50%−14%
Counter-attacks−55%−18%−64%+24%
Set pieces−29%+3%+30%−7%
Penalties+80%−40%−40%+80%
Headers−18%+40%+56%−23%
Left side−6%+13%−61%+11%
Centre−20%−7%−32%−41%
Right side−63%+16%−7%+28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdAberdeen concededLeft side−6%+28%Centre−20%−41%Right side−63%+11%Open play−21%−14%Counter-attacks−55%+24%Set pieces−29%−7%Headers−18%−23%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−61%+16%Centre−32%−7%Right side−7%+13%Open play−50%+11%Counter-attacks−64%−18%Set pieces+30%+3%Headers+56%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneAberdeen

1.33xG1.04
1.59xG against1.61
48%Possession48%
9.9Shots11.5
14.0Shots against15.9
3.4Shots on target2.9
2.4Big chances1.5
18.4Touches in the opposition box22.0
441Passes399
80%Pass accuracy78%
3.2Corners6.1
49%Field tilt42%
39.7Final-third entries38.6
10.9Box entries12.5
18.3Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.591.52
Ahead210.831.90
Behind231.251.44

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.121–1
16–300.200.202–1
31–450.290.321–2
46–600.330.312–4
61–750.130.211–1
76–900.200.423–1

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSteward 8Smith 5Todd 3Mitchell 6Finlayson 2Diabate 7Foulds 1Alić 6Foulds 2McAlear 7Stanton 1Holt 8Stanton 4Campbell 2Smith 1Paton 2Cotterill 2Gullan 2Paton 3Steven 3Gullan 2Fowler 7Gullan 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 October 2026Aberdeen0–1St. JohnstonexG 1.23–1.10
15 March 2025St. Johnstone0–0AberdeenxG 0.64–0.58
7 December 2024Aberdeen1–1St. JohnstonexG 0.70–1.35
5 August 2024St. Johnstone1–2AberdeenxG 0.81–1.79
4 May 2024Aberdeen1–0St. JohnstonexG 3.34–0.99
28 February 2024Aberdeen0–2St. JohnstonexG 2.17–1.69

19 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 4, Aberdeen won 9, and 6 were drawn. Goals 10–15 and xG 0.79–1.20 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fowler7557510.560.05
Alić6540100.030.16
Stanton6545010.090.05
Diabate7593100.070.02

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.