Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Aberdeen

Wednesday 2 December 2026, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 16

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.920.83
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.100.67
Clean sheet44%15%

Hearts 63%Draw 22%Aberdeen 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%1%1%12%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position3rd8th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠22–⁠2–⁠4
Points16 (2.00 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.900.98
Goals19–⁠87–⁠9
xG per game2.02–⁠1.201.04–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.741.00, 1.33–⁠1.54
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.661.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerWouter Vrancken (8)Stephen Robinson (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.52, 3rdAberdeen1.11, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdAberdeen1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Aberdeen attack: 1.111.521.11AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.11Aberdeen defence: 1.471.471.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+17%−21%−50%−14%
Counter-attacks−11%−53%−64%+24%
Set pieces+27%−8%+30%−7%
Penalties+140%−40%−40%+80%
Headers−10%−9%+56%−23%
Left side+45%−37%−61%+11%
Centre+25%+5%−32%−41%
Right side−34%−50%−7%+28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+45%+28%Centre+25%−41%Right side−34%+11%Open play+17%−14%Counter-attacks−11%+24%Set pieces+27%−7%Headers−10%−23%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−61%−50%Centre−32%+5%Right side−7%−37%Open play−50%−21%Counter-attacks−64%−53%Set pieces+30%−8%Headers+56%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

2.02xG1.04
1.20xG against1.61
54%Possession48%
16.8Shots11.5
9.5Shots against15.9
5.4Shots on target2.9
2.8Big chances1.5
29.9Touches in the opposition box22.0
445Passes399
79%Pass accuracy78%
7.4Corners6.1
59%Field tilt42%
38.2Final-third entries38.6
16.5Box entries12.5
12.1Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 August 2026Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 2.66–1.83
28 February 2026Hearts1–0AberdeenxG 2.33–0.39
23 November 2025Aberdeen1–0HeartsxG 0.56–2.30
4 August 2025Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.03–1.40
12 January 2025Aberdeen0–0HeartsxG 1.10–1.54
1 December 2024Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.15–0.62

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 7, Aberdeen won 7, and 3 were drawn. Goals 23–18 and xG 1.56–1.12 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.