Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Aberdeen v Falkirk

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 11

Forecast

AberdeenFalkirk
Expected goals1.371.16
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.511.21
Clean sheet31%25%

Aberdeen 41%Draw 28%Falkirk 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Falkirk goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%9%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

Falkirk

  1. L1–210 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.97–1.41
  2. D1–119 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.29–0.94
  3. W2–115 SepHearts (H)xG 2.14–1.79
  4. D1–15 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.27–2.66
  5. L1–22 SepRangers (H)xG 1.00–1.57
  6. L1–229 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.57–3.45

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenFalkirk
Position8th11th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠41–⁠3–⁠4
Points8 (1.00 per game)6 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game0.980.99
Goals7–⁠97–⁠11
xG per game1.04–⁠1.611.17–⁠1.83
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.33–⁠1.540.75, 1.42–⁠1.58
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.75–⁠1.690.75, 0.92–⁠2.08
ManagerStephen Robinson (17)John McGlynn (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.11, 10thFalkirk1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.47, 9thFalkirk1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen attack: 1.11Falkirk attack: 1.181.181.11FalkirkAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctAberdeen defence: 1.47Falkirk defence: 1.441.471.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−50%−14%−2%+36%
Counter-attacks−64%+24%−86%−20%
Set pieces+30%−7%−50%+40%
Penalties−40%+80%−40%−100%
Headers+56%−23%−64%−37%
Left side−61%+11%−49%+14%
Centre−32%−41%−24%+24%
Right side−7%+28%+1%+51%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdFalkirk concededLeft side−61%+51%Centre−32%+24%Right side−7%+14%Open play−50%+36%Counter-attacks−64%−20%Set pieces+30%+40%Headers+56%−37%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdAberdeen concededLeft side−49%+28%Centre−24%−41%Right side+1%+11%Open play−2%−14%Counter-attacks−86%+24%Set pieces−50%−7%Headers−64%−23%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenFalkirk

1.04xG1.17
1.61xG against1.83
48%Possession48%
11.5Shots11.6
15.9Shots against15.9
2.9Shots on target3.1
1.5Big chances1.5
22.0Touches in the opposition box24.1
399Passes415
78%Pass accuracy77%
6.1Corners4.5
42%Field tilt49%
38.6Final-third entries38.5
12.5Box entries9.8
14.0Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.451.49
Ahead221.252.13
Behind260.652.12

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.152–3
16–300.090.430–2
31–450.260.362–0
46–600.130.211–1
61–750.230.342–0
76–900.280.330–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Strain 8Neilson 6Meļņiks 2Henderson 8McCann 7Tanser 1Barbrook 7McMillan 1Spencer 6Krauhaus 1Sibbald 1Ross 5Fodrey 1Doherty 1Krauhaus 6Yeats 2Eames 4Ross 2Fodrey 1Murrell 5Parkinson 2MacIver 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 March 2026Aberdeen1–1FalkirkxG 1.54–0.76
3 January 2026Falkirk1–0AberdeenxG 1.53–0.57
31 August 2025Aberdeen0–1FalkirkxG 0.96–1.26

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 0, Falkirk won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–3 and xG 1.02–1.18 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Strain8720030.070.17
Barbrook7591000.110.10
Ross7570100.110.10
Spencer6528000.070.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.