Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Dundee FC v Kilmarnock

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · Dens Park · Round 11

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.531.20
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.591.14
Clean sheet30%22%

Dundee FC 44%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+7%7%5%2%7%3%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%9%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. W2–110 OctFalkirk (A)xG 1.41–1.97
  2. W2–119 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–1.10
  3. L1–26 SepHearts (A)xG 0.42–1.93
  4. D1–12 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.07–1.08
  5. L1–230 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.03–2.33
  6. W2–022 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.43–1.19

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position4th12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠1–⁠31–⁠2–⁠5
Points13 (1.62 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.190.81
Goals11–⁠87–⁠18
xG per game1.26–⁠1.571.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.58–⁠1.310.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 0.94–⁠1.841.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerSteven Pressley (46)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackDundee FC1.12, 9thKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.54, 10thKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC attack: 1.12Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.12KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctDundee FC defence: 1.54Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.581.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%+13%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks−17%−59%−77%+88%
Set pieces+19%−13%−15%+48%
Penalties−40%+20%−100%−40%
Headers+25%+14%−36%+137%
Left side+3%+20%−39%+57%
Centre−24%−32%−23%+80%
Right side−31%+18%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+3%−5%Centre−24%+80%Right side−31%+57%Open play−32%+41%Counter-attacks−17%+88%Set pieces+19%+48%Headers+25%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−39%+18%Centre−23%−32%Right side−20%+20%Open play−20%+13%Counter-attacks−77%−59%Set pieces−15%−13%Headers−36%+14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.26xG1.04
1.57xG against2.21
38%Possession42%
12.6Shots10.2
18.9Shots against18.5
4.5Shots on target4.0
2.5Big chances1.6
19.1Touches in the opposition box20.1
336Passes378
73%Pass accuracy77%
5.1Corners4.6
25%Field tilt39%
26.9Final-third entries36.9
9.5Box entries10.5
19.6Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.361.48
Ahead331.241.63
Behind161.001.68

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.161–0
16–300.290.182–1
31–450.130.342–2
46–600.210.143–1
61–750.190.340–1
76–900.370.413–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTGoodman 8D. Wright 7Halliday 1Astley 8O. Bevan 8Odutayo 5Samuels 3J. Bevan 6Forrest 1Robertson 1Finnigan 6Jones 2Hamilton 8Reilly 4Forrest 3Moorhouse 1Fink 4Murray 2Forrest 1Westley 7Hay 14-4-2 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 4-2-3-1 (3)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2026Kilmarnock3–1Dundee FCxG 3.48–0.43
11 April 2026Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 1.63–1.32
30 December 2025Dundee FC2–1KilmarnockxG 2.23–1.27
23 August 2025Kilmarnock0–0Dundee FCxG 1.11–0.26
10 May 2025Kilmarnock3–2Dundee FCxG 3.50–0.99
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 2, Kilmarnock won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 20–22 and xG 1.12–1.91 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley7537300.570.04
J. Bevan6521110.140.06
D. Wright7637110.020.10
O. Bevan8720200.070.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.