Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 1–0 Dundee FC

Wednesday 11 February 2026, 19:45 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 26 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 7,345

Falkirk Broggio 55'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkDundee FC
Goals10
xG0.981.58
Non-penalty xG0.980.80
Expected Points0.841.87

Falkirk 19%Draw 29%Dundee FC 53%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 1–0, 3%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+4%11%4%3%13%5%1%2%8%7%2%2%2%15%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTSpencer on for Cartwright, Miller on for Ross, and Yeats on for Marsh, 76'McCann on for Adams, 79'Allan on for Broggio, 88'Jones on for Cotterill and S. Wright on for Murray, 78'Reilly on for Congreve, 80'Bevan on for Yogane, 88'Broggio 55'Dundee FC 1.58Falkirk 0.9800.511.520153045607590HTSpencer on for Cartwright, Miller on for Ross, and Yeats on for Marsh, 76'McCann on for Adams, 79'Allan on for Broggio, 88'Jones on for Cotterill and S. Wright on for Murray, 78'Reilly on for Congreve, 80'Bevan on for Yogane, 88'Broggio 55'1.580.98FalkirkDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkDundee FC

0.98 −0.32xG1.58 +0.78
0.98Non-penalty xG0.80
0.59 −0.61xG on target0.26 −0.51
16 +3.7Shots15 +5.6
3 −0.9Shots on target4 +1.2
1 −1.0Big chances2 +1.0
20 0Touches in the opposition box22 +8
50% 0Possession50% +9
403 +2Passes389 +47
78% +2Pass accuracy82% +7
55% +8Field tilt45% +10
37 +2Final-third entries56 +26
11 +0.4Box entries11 +4.9
11.7 −1Passes per defensive action17.6 −4
4 −0.8Corners4 +0.8
24 +5Tackles16 +2
8 −1.0Interceptions9 +1.0
31 +1Clearances30 −4
4 +0.8Saves2 −1.8
14 +1.8Fouls4 −5.5
0 −2.2Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Tait 35', 0.18 xGAdams 45', 0.10 xGStewart 33', 0.09 xGAdams 33', 0.07 xGBroggio 2', 0.05 xGTait 51', 0.05 xGMarsh 55', 0.05 xGCartwright 42', 0.04 xGLissah 52', 0.04 xGStewart 33', 0.03 xGBroggio 41', 0.03 xGTait 18', 0.02 xGAdams 60', 0.02 xGTait 84', 0.02 xGRoss 14', 0.01 xGBroggio 55', 0.18 xG, goal18%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals46%0.45 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal15%0.15 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals19%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Congreve 5', 0.17 xGGraham 30', 0.09 xGAstley 70', 0.09 xGDhanda 64', 0.08 xGHalliday 79', 0.07 xGMurray 29', 0.06 xGCongreve 45', 0.05 xGYogane 14', 0.04 xGCotterill 57', 0.04 xGAstley 63', 0.03 xGHamilton 6', 0.02 xGHamilton 64', 0.02 xGDhanda 68', 0.02 xGHamilton 90', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.35 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals40%0.32 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals11%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkDundee FC

0.92 14 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.44 10 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.17 1 shot, 0 goals
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (58%) · Falkirk 0.93, Dundee FC 0.43 xG
Falkirk ahead
40 min (42%) · Falkirk 0.05, Dundee FC 1.15 xG

Line-ups

19215528211723301116BainAdamsNeilsonHendersonLissahTaitCartwrightRossMarshBroggioStewartYellow cardYellow cardGoal79'76'76'76'88'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn1164227482021241715McCrackenHallidayAstleyGrahamD. WrightHamiltonCongreveDhandaCotterillYoganeMurrayYellow card80'78'88'78'Dundee FC 4-1-4-1Steven Pressley

Falkirk substitutes

  • 0' Hogarth · yellow card 90+4'
  • 76' Spencer for Cartwright
  • 76' Yeats for Marsh
  • 76' Miller for Ross
  • 79' McCann for Adams
  • 88' Allan for Broggio

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 78' Jones for Cotterill
  • 78' S. Wright for Murray
  • 80' Reilly for Congreve
  • 88' Bevan for Yogane

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.00–––––
Adams RB790.200.0500.1071
NeilsonCB900.000.040−0.0239
HendersonCB900.000.0600.11411
Lissah LB900.040.0000.03413
TaitDM900.270.2150.1776
CartwrightDM760.040.021−0.0246
RossRW760.010.000−0.0107
MarshAM760.050.0310.0551
BroggioLW8810.260.0920.1553
StewartST900.120.021−0.0401
Hogarth GK900.000.0000.0642
SpencerMF140.000.0000.0112
YeatsMF140.000.0000.0003
MillerFW140.000.0210.0111
McCannDF110.000.0000.0132
AllanDF20.000.000−0.0100

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0110
HallidayRB900.070.0310.061111
AstleyCB900.120.0100.131213
GrahamCB900.090.0210.211113
D. WrightLB900.000.0800.1775
HamiltonDM900.060.0310.0819
CongreveRM800.220.0410.2151
Dhanda CM900.890.2230.06105
CotterillCM780.040.0100.0411
YoganeLM880.040.1530.1693
MurrayST780.060.082−0.1402
JonesMF120.000.0000.0000
S. WrightFW120.000.0000.0000
ReillyMF100.000.0000.0110
BevanFW20.000.001−0.0200

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Hogarth and Cartwright: 5 passesNeilson and Cartwright: 5 passesLissah and Cartwright: 5 passesHogarth and Tait: 6 passesAdams and Cartwright: 6 passesHenderson and Cartwright: 6 passesTait and Ross: 6 passesCartwright and Marsh: 6 passesAdams and Marsh: 7 passesHenderson and Ross: 7 passesLissah and Tait: 8 passesTait and Broggio: 8 passesBroggio and Marsh: 8 passesTait and Marsh: 9 passesAdams and Neilson: 10 passesNeilson and Tait: 10 passesTait and Cartwright: 11 passesAdams and Broggio: 12 passesAdams and Tait: 13 passesHogarth and Neilson: 16 passesHogarth and Henderson: 17 passesNeilson and Henderson: 17 passesHenderson and Tait: 17 passesHenderson and Lissah: 26 passesHogarth: 29 completed passesAdams: 27 completed passesNeilson: 33 completed passesHenderson: 46 completed passesLissah: 27 completed passesTait: 44 completed passesCartwright: 28 completed passesBroggio: 17 completed passesMarsh: 22 completed passesRoss: 13 completed passesStewart: 7 completed passes1215528211711302316HogarthAdamsNeilsonHendersonLissahTaitCartwrightBroggioMarshRossStewartStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee FC

McCracken and Halliday: 4 passesAstley and Hamilton: 4 passesHamilton and Murray: 4 passesDhanda and Yogane: 4 passesHamilton and Yogane: 5 passesGraham and Yogane: 6 passesAstley and D. Wright: 6 passesD. Wright and Cotterill: 6 passesD. Wright and Yogane: 6 passesHamilton and Dhanda: 6 passesGraham and Cotterill: 7 passesAstley and Congreve: 7 passesGraham and D. Wright: 8 passesMcCracken and Graham: 9 passesHalliday and Hamilton: 9 passesMcCracken and Astley: 10 passesGraham and Hamilton: 10 passesD. Wright and Hamilton: 10 passesAstley and Dhanda: 13 passesCongreve and Dhanda: 13 passesHalliday and Congreve: 18 passesHalliday and Dhanda: 21 passesGraham and Astley: 23 passesHalliday and Astley: 24 passesMcCracken: 17 completed passesHalliday: 43 completed passesGraham: 34 completed passesAstley: 46 completed passesD. Wright: 26 completed passesHamilton: 29 completed passesCongreve: 17 completed passesCotterill: 12 completed passesDhanda: 34 completed passesYogane: 10 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passes1162247482024211715McCrackenHallidayGrahamAstleyD. WrightHamiltonCongreveCotterillDhandaYoganeMurrayStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonHogarth14
HendersonLissah14
NeilsonHenderson12
LissahHenderson12
NeilsonHogarth10

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
AstleyHalliday18
AstleyGraham16
HallidayDhanda16
HallidayCongreve14
GrahamAstley12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

5−3.210+3.416+1.215+7.44−1.212+2.83−4.03−3.112+5.012+4.04−3.02−2.62−1.14−0.17+0.83−1.28+4.42−0.15+2.47+2.83−1.03+1.03+1.71−1.34+1.61−0.20−0.30−0.60−0.31+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Dundee FC

0−4.91−6.515−2.84−4.02−2.69+4.68+1.510+2.217+8.92−4.79+4.64−0.85+2.110+5.14−1.24+0.57+4.60−1.57+4.530.020.02+0.51−0.20−1.03+0.90−0.60−0.31+0.40−0.30−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.020.010.020.010.020.010.030.030.020.050.020.040.030.010.08−0.010.020.04−0.01−0.040.09−0.01−0.050.020.13LessMore

Dundee FC

0.010.010.020.010.030.060.010.040.070.020.040.040.040.060.010.030.080.01−0.030.010.090.04−0.02−0.05−0.060.180.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackFalkirk1.27 → 1.25Dundee FC1.00 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.18 → 1.19Dundee FC1.59 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six97%98%+1
Dundee FC
Top six<1%–0
11th15%18%+3
Bottom1%1%0
Kilmarnock
11th64%62%−2
Bottom9%9%0
Aberdeen
Top six3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (11 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkDundee FC
Expected goals1.830.79
Win61%15%
Expected Points2.080.69
Clean sheet45%16%

Falkirk 61%Draw 23%Dundee FC 15%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%5%2%4%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%3%1%1%1%13%11%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawDundee FC win
Falkirk
Top six97%98%95%92%
Dundee FC
Top six<1%––1%
11th15%18%13%7%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
Kilmarnock
11th64%62%66%70%
Bottom9%9%9%9%
Aberdeen
Top six3%2%4%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–14 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.40–0.57
  2. L0–21 FebCeltic (A)xG 1.07–0.66
  3. W4–124 JanHibernian (H)xG 3.64–0.73
  4. L0–114 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.72–0.62
  5. W2–010 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.52–0.54
  6. W1–03 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.53–0.57

Dundee FC

  1. D0–031 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.78–1.04
  2. L0–325 JanRangers (A)xG 0.24–2.51
  3. L0–111 JanHearts (H)xG 1.34–0.36
  4. W1–03 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.83–1.50
  5. W2–130 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.23–1.27
  6. W1–027 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.24–1.33

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkDundee FC
Position6th10th
Played2524
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠6–⁠96–⁠5–⁠13
Points36 (1.44 per game)23 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game1.440.86
Goals29–⁠3219–⁠37
xG per game1.30–⁠1.260.80–⁠1.58
Home: points, xG per game1.42, 1.57–⁠1.041.45, 1.10–⁠1.40
Away: points, xG per game1.46, 1.05–⁠1.460.54, 0.55–⁠1.74
ManagerJohn McGlynn (25)Steven Pressley (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackFalkirk1.27, 6thDundee FC1.00, 11thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.18, 6thDundee FC1.59, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebFalkirk attack: 1.27Dundee FC attack: 1.001.271.00Dundee FCFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebFalkirk defence: 1.18Dundee FC defence: 1.591.591.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+3%−13%−47%+14%
Counter-attacks−1%+16%−67%−3%
Set pieces−12%−24%−23%+15%
Penalties−72%+10%−43%+15%
Headers−26%+8%−15%+7%
Left side−41%−21%−59%+4%
Centre+1%−13%−43%+7%
Right side+32%−2%−27%+33%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−41%+33%Centre+1%+7%Right side+32%+4%Open play+3%+14%Counter-attacks−1%−3%Set pieces−12%+15%Headers−26%+7%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side−59%−2%Centre−43%−13%Right side−27%−21%Open play−47%−13%Counter-attacks−67%+16%Set pieces−23%−24%Headers−15%+8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee FC

1.30xG0.80
1.26xG against1.58
50%Possession41%
12.3Shots9.4
12.0Shots against15.6
3.9Shots on target2.8
2.0Big chances1.0
20.3Touches in the opposition box13.5
401Passes342
77%Pass accuracy74%
4.8Corners3.2
47%Field tilt34%
34.9Final-third entries30.4
10.6Box entries6.1
12.8Passes per defensive action21.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.271.52
Ahead211.540.63
Behind261.151.34

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.951.59
Ahead170.751.91
Behind320.651.40

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.153–1
16–300.280.255–6
31–450.210.333–11
46–600.200.176–4
61–750.200.197–5
76–900.190.175–5

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.211–4
16–300.110.214–8
31–450.170.296–7
46–600.110.264–4
61–750.120.242–3
76–900.150.372–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 25Adams 17Lissah 6Yeats 1Allan 16Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 25McCann 15Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 24Cartwright 8Stewart 1Tait 15Yeats 2Wilson 15Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 5Yeats 3Miller 12Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Stewart 54-2-3-1 in 24 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (24), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWMcCracken 24Astley 21Wright 2Dhanda 1C. Robertson 14Graham 22Koumetio 9Samuels 3Wright 11Congreve 7Hamilton 4Jones 8Robertson 8Digby 8Hamilton 14Westley 3Cotterill 1Samuels 10Yogane 6Wright 5Congreve 10Dhanda 3Westley 3Murray 11Hay 8Westley 3Yogane 8Wright 4Westley 43-4-3 in 7 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-5-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 December 2025Dundee FC1–0FalkirkxG 1.24–1.33
25 October 2025Falkirk2–1Dundee FCxG 1.08–1.21

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 1, Dundee FC won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.21–1.23 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart6470310.660.14
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7730400.450.07
Miller241,922460.260.24

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Congreve181,536160.090.30
Hay9959210.220.11
Westley13851200.190.14
Dhanda151,256200.140.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.