Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 2–1 Dundee FC

Saturday 25 October 2025, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 7,652

Falkirk C. Robertson 55' (og), Allan 89'

Dundee FC C. Robertson 26'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkDundee FC
Goals21
xG1.081.21
Expected Points1.241.44

Falkirk 31%Draw 32%Dundee FC 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 2–1, 8%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+8%11%7%2%11%10%3%6%8%6%2%2%2%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTGraham on for MacIver and Agyeman on for Wilson, 73'Arfield on for Miller and Cartwright on for Tait, 81'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Williams, 88'Acquah on for Murray, 67'Dhanda on for Congreve, Yogane on for Hamilton, and Jones on for Westley, 70'C. Robertson 55' (og)Allan 89'C. Robertson 26'Dundee FC 1.21Falkirk 1.0800.511.50153045607590HTGraham on for MacIver and Agyeman on for Wilson, 73'Arfield on for Miller and Cartwright on for Tait, 81'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Williams, 88'Acquah on for Murray, 67'Dhanda on for Congreve, Yogane on for Hamilton, and Jones on for Westley, 70'C. Robertson 55' (og)Allan 89'C. Robertson 26'1.211.08FalkirkDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkDundee FC

1.08 −0.09xG1.21 +0.47
2.05 +0.93xG on target1.16 +0.44
12 +0.2Shots13 +5.4
5 +0.5Shots on target3 +0.7
3 +0.8Big chances1 0.0
20 −1Touches in the opposition box22 +10
66% +14Possession34% −3
489 +88Passes247 −77
79% +3Pass accuracy60% −15
79% +28Field tilt21% −9
58 +23Final-third entries28 +2
11 −0.5Box entries6 +0.9
9.8 −3Passes per defensive action20.9 −5
5 +0.2Corners3 −0.6
16 −3Tackles16 +1
9 +1.9Interceptions10 +0.3
48 +19Clearances35 −3
2 −1.8Saves4 +0.3
11 −1.4Fouls12 +4.4
1 −1.8Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Miller 49', 0.19 xGMacIver 56', 0.13 xGMacIver 56', 0.07 xGMiller 64', 0.06 xGMacIver 29', 0.04 xGTait 64', 0.04 xGTait 8', 0.03 xGSpencer 72', 0.03 xGSpencer 77', 0.03 xGMiller 16', 0.02 xGWilson 38', 0.02 xGAllan 89', 0.40 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%0.89 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.89 xG, 1 goal6%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Murray 2', 0.27 xGMurray 1', 0.25 xGMurray 39', 0.11 xGDhanda 78', 0.08 xGAstley 90+2', 0.08 xGHamilton 90+2', 0.07 xGHamilton 87', 0.05 xGWestley 22', 0.04 xGMurray 38', 0.04 xGHamilton 75', 0.04 xGDhanda 75', 0.02 xGAstley 45', 0.00 xGC. Robertson 26', 0.17 xG, goal63%0.77 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.77 xG, 1 goal20%0.25 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals10%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkDundee FC

1.01 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.34 7 shots, 0 goals
0.07 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.87 6 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (65%) · Falkirk 0.83, Dundee FC 0.92 xG
Falkirk ahead
3 min (3%) · Falkirk 0.00, Dundee FC 0.14 xG
Dundee FC ahead
29 min (32%) · Falkirk 0.25, Dundee FC 0.15 xG

Line-ups

192205288212224299BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahSpencerTaitWilsonWilliamsMillerMacIverGoalYellow cardYellow card81'73'88'81'73'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn14322784812201519McCrackenAstleyC. RobertsonGrahamWrightDigbyHamiltonSamuelsCongreveMurrayWestleyGoalOwn goalYellow cardYellow card70'70'67'70'Dundee FC 3-4-3Steven Pressley

Falkirk substitutes

  • 73' Agyeman for Wilson
  • 73' Graham for MacIver
  • 81' Cartwright for Tait
  • 81' Arfield for Miller
  • 88' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for Williams

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 67' Acquah for Murray
  • 70' Jones for Westley
  • 70' Yogane for Hamilton
  • 70' Dhanda for Congreve

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0310
AdamsRB900.000.0920.1078
AllanCB9010.400.1000.15410
HendersonCB900.000.0100.09414
Lissah LB900.000.0400.11517
SpencerDM900.060.1530.36145
TaitDM810.070.0400.13106
Wilson RW730.020.0530.0525
WilliamsAM880.000.0320.0121
MillerLW810.280.1400.0843
MacIverST730.230.020−0.1501
AgyemanFW170.000.0000.0000
GrahamFW170.000.0000.0002
CartwrightMF90.000.0000.0103
ArfieldMF90.000.0000.0201
Samuel-OgunsuyiFW20.000.0000.0002

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0400.1230
AstleyCB900.080.0100.02511
C. Robertson CB9010.170.0000.0114
GrahamCB900.000.010−0.01112
WrightRWB900.000.0700.0798
DigbyCM900.000.0100.0136
Hamilton CM700.160.000−0.0208
SamuelsLWB900.000.0100.0667
CongreveRW7010.000.2320.0931
MurrayST670.660.0200.0202
WestleyLW700.040.9320.0913
AcquahFW230.000.0000.0000
JonesMF200.000.0000.0010
YoganeMF200.000.0910.2050
DhandaMF200.100.3300.1941

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Adams and Miller: 5 passesHenderson and Williams: 5 passesLissah and Tait: 5 passesSpencer and Miller: 5 passesSpencer and MacIver: 5 passesAdams and Wilson: 6 passesTait and Wilson: 7 passesTait and Williams: 7 passesLissah and Williams: 10 passesSpencer and Wilson: 11 passesBain and Allan: 12 passesSpencer and Williams: 12 passesBain and Henderson: 13 passesLissah and Spencer: 13 passesAllan and Tait: 15 passesHenderson and Tait: 17 passesHenderson and Lissah: 20 passesAllan and Spencer: 20 passesAdams and Allan: 21 passesHenderson and Allan: 21 passesTait and Spencer: 21 passesAdams and Tait: 23 passesHenderson and Spencer: 24 passesAdams and Spencer: 26 passesBain: 19 completed passesAdams: 48 completed passesHenderson: 53 completed passesAllan: 53 completed passesLissah: 28 completed passesTait: 47 completed passesSpencer: 73 completed passesWilson: 17 completed passesWilliams: 22 completed passesMiller: 9 completed passesMacIver: 4 completed passes192520282182224299BainAdamsHendersonAllanLissahTaitSpencerWilsonWilliamsMillerMacIverStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee FC

McCracken and Samuels: 3 passesGraham and Hamilton: 3 passesWright and Westley: 3 passesMurray and Westley: 3 passesMcCracken and C. Robertson: 4 passesDigby and Congreve: 4 passesGraham and Westley: 5 passesAstley and Congreve: 5 passesCongreve and Murray: 5 passesC. Robertson and Astley: 6 passesAstley and Wright: 6 passesSamuels and Hamilton: 7 passesWright and Digby: 9 passesGraham and Samuels: 10 passesWright and Congreve: 16 passesMcCracken: 10 completed passesGraham: 12 completed passesC. Robertson: 11 completed passesAstley: 13 completed passesWright: 22 completed passesSamuels: 9 completed passesDigby: 14 completed passesHamilton: 10 completed passesCongreve: 15 completed passesMurray: 2 completed passesWestley: 6 completed passes12234712848201519McCrackenGrahamC. RobertsonAstleyWrightSamuelsDigbyHamiltonCongreveMurrayWestleyStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonSpencer16
BainHenderson15
AdamsAllan14
SpencerAdams14
HendersonLissah14

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
WrightCongreve10
AstleyWright7
GrahamSamuels6
CongreveWright6
DigbyWright5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

2−5.94−2.017+2.814+6.67+2.912+5.17+2.03−3.92−5.915+8.112+5.52−3.22−1.04−0.810+3.26+1.53−1.41−1.24+1.11−4.14−0.60−1.62+1.120.00−3.22+1.21+0.91+0.60−0.12+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Dundee FC

6+0.816−3.66−2.48+3.48+1.012+4.25−3.712+4.46+2.44−0.41−1.65+1.34−1.23−0.82−0.61−0.31−1.34+1.010.01−0.22+1.31+0.31−0.91+0.42+1.81+0.31+1.00−0.34−4.91−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.020.060.040.040.010.020.040.040.050.020.110.090.030.060.09−0.020.020.100.080.07−0.01−0.17−0.020.18LessMore

Dundee FC

0.110.010.020.010.010.010.040.010.030.070.04−0.02−0.010.07−0.010.020.10−0.010.170.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.06 → 1.07Dundee FC1.04 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.62 → 1.60Dundee FC1.73 → 1.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six16%21%+5
11th18%14%−4
Bottom18%11%−7
Dundee FC
Top six5%3%−2
11th26%30%+4
Bottom24%30%+6

From the forecast before the match (25 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkDundee FC
Expected goals1.581.12
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.681.05
Clean sheet33%21%

Falkirk 47%Draw 26%Dundee FC 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee FC goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%2%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawDundee FC win
Falkirk
Top six16%21%13%9%
11th18%14%21%22%
Bottom18%11%19%28%
Dundee FC
Top six5%3%5%8%
11th26%30%25%22%
Bottom24%30%24%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W2–118 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.35–1.01
  2. D1–15 OctRangers (H)xG 1.43–1.09
  3. L0–327 SepHearts (A)xG 0.67–1.94
  4. D2–223 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.18–2.43
  5. L1–213 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.57
  6. W1–031 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.26–0.96

Dundee FC

  1. W2–019 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.30–2.70
  2. L0–45 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.31–2.80
  3. L0–127 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.62–0.74
  4. W3–220 SepLivingston (H)xG 2.74–1.51
  5. D1–113 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.82–2.28
  6. L0–231 AugDundee United (H)xG 0.12–0.91

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkDundee FC
Position8th9th
Played89
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠32–⁠3–⁠4
Points9 (1.12 per game)9 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.150.69
Goals10–⁠148–⁠13
xG per game1.17–⁠1.470.74–⁠1.72
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.33–⁠1.571.40, 1.02–⁠1.76
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.02–⁠1.380.50, 0.38–⁠1.66
ManagerJohn McGlynn (8)Steven Pressley (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.06, 10thDundee FC1.04, 11thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.62, 10thDundee FC1.73, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctFalkirk attack: 1.06Dundee FC attack: 1.041.061.04Dundee FCFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctFalkirk defence: 1.62Dundee FC defence: 1.731.731.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+2%+2%−50%+23%
Counter-attacks−67%+64%−33%+5%
Set pieces+10%−15%−46%+16%
Penalties−100%+44%−36%+92%
Headers+1%−6%−33%+5%
Left side−54%−13%−57%+40%
Centre+12%+10%−42%+1%
Right side+10%+7%−50%+39%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdDundee FC concededLeft side−54%+39%Centre+12%+1%Right side+10%+40%Open play+2%+23%Counter-attacks−67%+5%Set pieces+10%+16%Headers+1%+5%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdFalkirk concededLeft side−57%+7%Centre−42%+10%Right side−50%−13%Open play−50%+2%Counter-attacks−33%+64%Set pieces−46%−15%Headers−33%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkDundee FC

1.17xG0.74
1.47xG against1.72
52%Possession37%
11.8Shots7.6
13.2Shots against15.3
4.5Shots on target2.3
2.2Big chances1.0
21.0Touches in the opposition box11.9
401Passes324
76%Pass accuracy74%
4.8Corners3.6
51%Field tilt30%
34.9Final-third entries25.9
11.5Box entries5.1
12.6Passes per defensive action26.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.091.55
Ahead30.070.45
Behind351.401.46

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.811.50
Ahead171.132.96
Behind300.421.34

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.120–0
16–300.220.410–4
31–450.250.411–5
46–600.170.212–1
61–750.230.185–2
76–900.150.142–2

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.110–1
16–300.050.271–3
31–450.210.363–4
46–600.130.192–0
61–750.140.331–2
76–900.170.471–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 8Adams 8Neilson 6McCann 1Lissah 1Henderson 8McCann 6Neilson 1Hart 1Spencer 8Cartwright 4Tait 4Miller 3Wilson 2Arfield 2Tait 4Williams 2Ross 1Miller 5Williams 1Arfield 1MacIver 7Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

Dundee FC

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMcCracken 9Wright 7Astley 1Ingram 1Astley 8C. Robert… 9C. RobertsonDhanda 1Yogane 1Graham 8Samuels 7Graham 1Yogane 1Congreve 4Jones 4Westley 3F. Robertson 7Digby 3Hamilton 6Murray 6Hay 3Westley 5Dhanda 3Acquah 15-3-2 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver7556210.350.13
Miller8614110.240.17
Tait8649100.120.13
Spencer8720010.070.17

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Westley8540100.240.06
Murray6453100.270.02
F. Robertson7638100.030.07
Wright7618000.010.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.