Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 2–5 Rangers

Saturday 16 May 2026, 12:30 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 38 · Half-time 2–3 · Attendance 7,148

Falkirk Butland 7' (og), Miller 44' (pen)

Rangers Chermiti 2', 6', 47', Gassama 27', Aasgaard 79' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkRangers
Goals25
xG2.462.54
Non-penalty xG1.671.75
Expected Points1.331.36

Falkirk 34%Draw 30%Rangers 35%

Most likely score 3–3, 15%. Final score 2–5, 2%.

Rangers goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+2%3%3%1%6%11%5%2%1%8%7%2%1%1%13%15%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMacIver on for Parkinson, Allan on for Cartwright, and Tait on for Spencer, 46'Oliver on for Broggio, 64'Wilson on for Hart, 72'Aarons on for Djiga, 35'Chukwuani on for Barron, 64'McCallion on for Aasgaard, Lawson on for Moore, and Scally on for Rommens, 80'Butland 7' (og)Miller 44' (pen)Chermiti 2'Chermiti 6'Gassama 27'Chermiti 47'Aasgaard 79' (pen)Rangers 2.54Falkirk 2.4601230153045607590HTMacIver on for Parkinson, Allan on for Cartwright, and Tait on for Spencer, 46'Oliver on for Broggio, 64'Wilson on for Hart, 72'Aarons on for Djiga, 35'Chukwuani on for Barron, 64'McCallion on for Aasgaard, Lawson on for Moore, and Scally on for Rommens, 80'Butland 7' (og)Miller 44' (pen)Chermiti 2'Chermiti 6'Gassama 27'Chermiti 47'Aasgaard 79' (pen)2.542.46FalkirkRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkRangers

2.46 +1.15xG2.54 +0.61
1.67Non-penalty xG1.75
1.35 +0.10xG on target2.74 +0.63
8 −4Shots15 −2
3 −0.8Shots on target7 +0.9
4 +1.8Big chances4 +0.7
14 −6Touches in the opposition box23 −8
55% +4Possession45% −13
410 +10Passes334 −142
86% +10Pass accuracy87% +5
7 +2.3Corners4 −2.8
12 −6Tackles6 −11
9 −0.4Interceptions4 −3.4
21 −9Clearances22 −4
2 −1.1Saves2 −0.8
11 −1Fouls9 −3
2 0.0Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Ross 45+3', 0.84 xGMiller 49', 0.73 xGParkinson 45+3', 0.04 xGSpencer 45+1', 0.02 xGMiller 46', 0.02 xGTait 67', 0.02 xGHart 56', 0.01 xG50%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.84 xG, 0 goals43%0.73 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.73 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Aasgaard 32', 0.54 xGChermiti 39', 0.35 xGMoore 11', 0.10 xGAasgaard 36', 0.06 xGGassama 62', 0.06 xGGassama 56', 0.05 xGChermiti 11', 0.04 xGLawson 90+1', 0.04 xGMoore 5', 0.03 xGMoore 45', 0.02 xGChermiti 47', 0.26 xG, goalGassama 27', 0.08 xG, goalChermiti 2', 0.06 xG, goalChermiti 6', 0.05 xG, goal31%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.54 xG, 0 goals39%0.69 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.69 xG, 2 goals7%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal22%0.38 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkRangers

0.04 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.72 13 shots, 4 goals
0.77 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
0.86 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
2 min (2%) · Falkirk 0.00, Rangers 0.06 xG
Rangers ahead
92 min (98%) · Falkirk 2.46, Rangers 2.48 xG

Line-ups

1141554217829112327HogarthYeatsNeilsonHendersonHartCartwrightSpencerMillerBroggioRossParkinsonYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card72'46'46'64'46'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn124537258102311479ButlandDjigaSouttarFernandezRommensBarronDiomandeGassamaAasgaardMooreChermitiOwn goalGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal35'80'64'80'80'Rangers 4-2-3-1Danny Röhl

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Allan for Cartwright
  • 46' Tait for Spencer
  • 46' MacIver for Parkinson
  • 64' Oliver for Broggio
  • 72' Wilson for Hart

Rangers substitutes

  • 35' Aarons for Djiga
  • 64' Chukwuani for Barron
  • 80' Scally for Rommens
  • 80' McCallion for Aasgaard
  • 80' Lawson for Moore

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
HogarthGK900.000.0001
YeatsRB900.000.0317
NeilsonCB900.000.00010
HendersonCB900.000.0105
HartLB720.010.0104
Cartwright DM460.000.0101
Spencer DM460.020.0213
Miller RW9011.540.2823
BroggioAM640.000.0101
RossLW900.840.0102
ParkinsonST460.040.0000
AllanDF440.000.0203
TaitMF440.020.0513
MacIverFW440.000.2910
OliverFW260.000.0000
WilsonFW180.000.0012

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
ButlandGK900.000.0001
DjigaRB350.000.0000
SouttarCB900.000.0207
FernandezCB900.000.01010
RommensLB8010.000.2416
BarronDM640.000.0121
DiomandeDM900.000.4532
GassamaRW9010.200.0812
AasgaardAM8011.390.0321
MooreLW8010.150.4220
ChermitiST90310.760.1810
AaronsDF550.000.0111
ChukwuaniMF260.000.0000
ScallyDF100.000.0001
McCallionMF100.000.0000
LawsonFW100.040.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.27 → 1.29Rangers1.88 → 1.90Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.32 → 1.35Rangers1.03 → 1.05

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkRangers
Expected goals1.151.63
Win26%48%
Expected Points1.051.69
Clean sheet20%32%

Falkirk 26%Draw 26%Rangers 48%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Rangers goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L0–313 MayHearts (A)xG 0.28–0.56
  2. L1–39 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.63–1.10
  3. W1–02 MayMotherwell (H)xG 2.42–1.33
  4. L1–325 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.92–1.11
  5. L3–612 AprRangers (H)xG 1.70–3.94
  6. W3–24 AprMotherwell (A)xG 2.06–1.46

Rangers

  1. L1–213 MayHibernian (H)xG 1.75–1.60
  2. L1–310 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.94–1.08
  3. L1–24 MayHearts (A)xG 0.82–0.76
  4. L2–326 AprMotherwell (H)xG 2.70–0.76
  5. W6–312 AprFalkirk (A)xG 3.94–1.70
  6. W4–24 AprDundee United (H)xG 3.96–1.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkRangers
Position6th3rd
Played3737
Won, drawn, lost14–⁠7–⁠1619–⁠12–⁠6
Points49 (1.32 per game)69 (1.86 per game)
Expected Points per game1.401.81
Goals48–⁠5771–⁠41
xG per game1.31–⁠1.281.93–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game1.37, 1.58–⁠1.202.00, 2.06–⁠1.13
Away: points, xG per game1.28, 1.03–⁠1.381.72, 1.79–⁠1.20
ManagerJohn McGlynn (37)Danny Röhl (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackFalkirk1.27, 6thRangers1.88, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.32, 6thRangers1.03, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayFalkirk attack: 1.27Rangers attack: 1.881.881.27RangersFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayFalkirk defence: 1.32Rangers defence: 1.031.321.03

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+1%−12%+31%−29%
Counter-attacks+16%−4%+40%+6%
Set pieces−22%−6%+55%−6%
Penalties−44%−6%+13%−6%
Headers−25%+4%+45%−16%
Left side−45%−10%+61%−17%
Centre−5%−10%+40%−21%
Right side+38%−6%+13%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdRangers concededLeft side−45%−16%Centre−5%−21%Right side+38%−17%Open play+1%−29%Counter-attacks+16%+6%Set pieces−22%−6%Headers−25%−16%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdFalkirk concededLeft side+61%−6%Centre+40%−10%Right side+13%−10%Open play+31%−12%Counter-attacks+40%−4%Set pieces+55%−6%Headers+45%+4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkRangers

1.31xG1.93
1.28xG against1.16
51%Possession58%
11.9Shots16.6
12.4Shots against10.4
3.8Shots on target6.1
2.2Big chances3.3
20.3Touches in the opposition box30.6
400Passes476
76%Pass accuracy83%
4.7Corners6.8
48%Field tilt65%
36.6Final-third entries49.4
10.6Box entries16.5
12.6Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.331.36
Ahead221.551.05
Behind271.081.36

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.931.01
Ahead381.541.42
Behind152.900.91

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.147–2
16–300.250.258–11
31–450.250.275–18
46–600.200.1910–8
61–750.240.1912–8
76–900.180.256–10

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.1111–4
16–300.290.178–9
31–450.360.1211–5
46–600.320.1814–7
61–750.320.218–8
76–900.390.3819–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 33Hogarth 4Adams 22Lissah 12Allan 2Allan 19Neilson 12Donaldson 6Henderson 32McCann 24Lissah 9Hart 3Spencer 35Stewart 1Tait 27Cartwright 9Yeats 2Wilson 17Broggio 8Miller 5Miller 10Yeats 10Tait 5Miller 20Williams 6Ross 4Stewart 16MacIver 9Graham 74-2-3-1 in 36 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (36), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 37Tavernier 25Sterling 8Aarons 3Souttar 22Djiga 21Sterling 2Fernandez 24Cornelius 5Meghoma 23Rommens 7Miovski 2Raskin 27Barron 13Rothwell 4Diomande 13Chukwuani 13Aasgaard 4Gassama 13Antman 8Olsen 6Aasgaard 11Diomande 6Raskin 4Moore 20Gassama 11Meghoma 2Chermiti 16Miovski 12Naderi 34-2-3-1 in 23 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (23), 4-3-3 (5), 4-2-2-2 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 April 2026Falkirk3–6RangersxG 1.70–3.94
30 November 2025Rangers0–0FalkirkxG 2.24–0.12
5 October 2025Falkirk1–1RangersxG 1.43–1.09

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 0, Rangers won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 4–7 and xG 1.08–2.42 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart171,419820.500.07
Graham7776400.460.07
MacIver9705310.390.12
Miller352,812690.270.23

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Chermiti191,8821240.600.10
Naderi5460110.530.04
Miovski141,303710.440.12
Tavernier252,362840.250.29

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.