Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Aberdeen 0–1 Falkirk

Sunday 31 August 2025, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 4 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 18,380

Aberdeen Devlin sent off 43'

Falkirk Wilson 75'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenFalkirk
Goals01
xG0.961.26
Expected Points1.131.55

Aberdeen 27%Draw 32%Falkirk 41%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 0–1, 12%.

Falkirk goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+9%12%8%3%11%10%4%1%5%7%5%2%1%1%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTDevlin (Aberdeen), red card 43'Molloy on for Yengi, 46'Shinnie on for Palaversa and Aouchiche on for Milanovic, 54'Lazetic on for Polvara, 59'Bilalovic on for Clarkson, 77'Agyeman on for Miller and Wilson on for Arfield, 68'Hogarth on for Bain, 74'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for MacIver and Allan on for Cartwright, 81'Wilson 75'Falkirk 1.26Aberdeen 0.9600.511.50153045607590HTDevlin (Aberdeen), red card 43'Molloy on for Yengi, 46'Shinnie on for Palaversa and Aouchiche on for Milanovic, 54'Lazetic on for Polvara, 59'Bilalovic on for Clarkson, 77'Agyeman on for Miller and Wilson on for Arfield, 68'Hogarth on for Bain, 74'Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for MacIver and Allan on for Cartwright, 81'Wilson 75'1.260.96AberdeenFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenFalkirk

0.96 −0.01xG1.26 −0.14
0.56 +0.30xG on target1.17 +0.03
12 +3.5Shots19 +8.0
4 +2.5Shots on target9 +5.5
1 −1.0Big chances1 −2.0
23 +9Touches in the opposition box29 +5
38% −2Possession62% +6
259 −86Passes436 +24
68% −4Pass accuracy79% +2
35% +3Field tilt65% +7
22 +2Final-third entries35 −7
13 +8.0Box entries14 +2.5
17.1 −5Passes per defensive action8.4 −7
5 +3.0Corners6 +2.5
19 +4Tackles19 +6
4 −2.0Interceptions9 +3.5
35 +8Clearances33 +8
7 +5.0Saves4 +1.5
16 0Fouls13 +1
4 +1.5Offsides4 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Yengi 35', 0.44 xGPolvara 13', 0.13 xGJensen 9', 0.07 xGMilanovic 24', 0.07 xGJensen 18', 0.06 xGMilne 35', 0.05 xGKeskinen 32', 0.04 xGMilanovic 40', 0.04 xGKeskinen 21', 0.03 xGClarkson 64', 0.03 xGKeskinen 76', 0.01 xGKeskinen 90+1', 0.00 xG6%0.06 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals58%0.56 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.56 xG, 0 goals24%0.23 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals11%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Spencer 62', 0.17 xGArfield 61', 0.15 xGSpencer 27', 0.12 xGAdams 63', 0.11 xGMacIver 45', 0.08 xGTait 50', 0.07 xGArfield 8', 0.06 xGMiller 15', 0.05 xGSpencer 57', 0.05 xGTait 62', 0.05 xGArfield 30', 0.04 xGAgyeman 70', 0.04 xGAgyeman 71', 0.04 xGTait 75', 0.04 xGAdams 49', 0.03 xGHenderson 52', 0.02 xGMacIver 62', 0.02 xGAgyeman 90+2', 0.02 xGWilson 75', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals54%0.67 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.67 xG, 1 goal22%0.27 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals23%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenFalkirk

0.36 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.01 13 shots, 1 goal
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.56 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
76 min (82%) · Aberdeen 0.94, Falkirk 1.24 xG
Falkirk ahead
17 min (18%) · Aberdeen 0.02, Falkirk 0.02 xG

Line-ups

12822521018118819MitovJensenMilneKnoesterDevlinClarksonPalaversaMilanovicPolvaraKeskinenYengiYellow cardYellow cardSent offYellow card77'54'54'59'46'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin19215531782921379BainAdamsNeilsonHendersonMcCannCartwrightSpencerMillerTaitArfieldMacIverYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card74'81'68'68'81'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Molloy for Yengi
  • 54' Aouchiche for Milanovic
  • 54' Shinnie for Palaversa
  • 59' Lazetic for Polvara
  • 77' Bilalovic for Clarkson

Falkirk substitutes

  • 68' Agyeman for Miller
  • 68' Wilson for Arfield · goal 75'
  • 74' Hogarth for Bain
  • 81' Allan for Cartwright · yellow card 90+1'
  • 81' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for MacIver

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0010.0320
JensenRB900.130.0200.0447
Milne CB900.050.0100.00412
Knoester CB900.000.0500.09216
Devlin LB430.000.0810.1832
ClarksonDM770.030.0210.0555
PalaversaDM540.000.0300.0022
MilanovicRW540.100.1110.0012
PolvaraAM590.130.0120.0411
Keskinen LW900.090.0110.0842
YengiST460.440.0020.0710
MolloyDF440.000.0000.0117
AouchicheMF360.000.0300.0334
ShinnieMF360.000.0000.0234
LazeticFW310.000.011−0.0411
BilalovicFW130.000.0000.0100

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK740.000.0000.0223
AdamsRB900.140.0100.0846
NeilsonCB900.000.0100.0637
HendersonCB900.020.0800.12614
McCann LB900.000.0500.0843
Cartwright DM810.000.0400.0635
SpencerDM900.340.0420.0668
Miller RW680.050.3020.2743
Tait AM900.170.2930.1655
ArfieldLW680.250.0410.0325
MacIverST810.100.3030.0103
AgyemanFW220.100.0100.0311
WilsonFW2210.090.0200.0300
HogarthGK160.000.0000.0000
Allan DF90.000.0000.0101
Samuel-OgunsuyiFW90.000.0100.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Mitov and Jensen: 3 passesJensen and Knoester: 3 passesJensen and Polvara: 3 passesKnoester and Milne: 3 passesKnoester and Devlin: 3 passesPalaversa and Keskinen: 3 passesClarkson and Polvara: 3 passesPolvara and Keskinen: 3 passesDevlin and Clarkson: 4 passesMitov and Milne: 6 passesMilne and Clarkson: 6 passesJensen and Clarkson: 7 passesMilne and Palaversa: 7 passesClarkson and Keskinen: 7 passesMitov and Knoester: 9 passesJensen and Milanovic: 9 passesJensen and Palaversa: 15 passesMitov: 12 completed passesJensen: 25 completed passesKnoester: 12 completed passesMilne: 15 completed passesDevlin: 10 completed passesPalaversa: 19 completed passesClarkson: 17 completed passesMilanovic: 7 completed passesPolvara: 4 completed passesKeskinen: 5 completed passesYengi: 1 completed passes12852221810118819MitovJensenKnoesterMilneDevlinPalaversaClarksonMilanovicPolvaraKeskinenYengiStarters until 43' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Bain and McCann: 5 passesAdams and Miller: 5 passesNeilson and Cartwright: 5 passesSpencer and Cartwright: 5 passesSpencer and Miller: 5 passesBain and Spencer: 6 passesAdams and Cartwright: 6 passesMcCann and Arfield: 6 passesSpencer and MacIver: 6 passesMcCann and Cartwright: 7 passesSpencer and Tait: 7 passesCartwright and Tait: 7 passesMiller and Tait: 8 passesSpencer and Arfield: 9 passesAdams and Tait: 10 passesHenderson and Cartwright: 10 passesAdams and Neilson: 11 passesTait and Arfield: 11 passesBain and Neilson: 12 passesHenderson and McCann: 12 passesMcCann and Tait: 12 passesNeilson and Spencer: 13 passesMcCann and Spencer: 14 passesBain and Henderson: 18 passesHenderson and Spencer: 19 passesHenderson and Neilson: 24 passesBain: 25 completed passesAdams: 20 completed passesHenderson: 47 completed passesNeilson: 38 completed passesMcCann: 28 completed passesSpencer: 42 completed passesCartwright: 30 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesTait: 30 completed passesArfield: 22 completed passesMacIver: 7 completed passes19251538172921379BainAdamsHendersonNeilsonMcCannSpencerCartwrightMillerTaitArfieldMacIverStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
JensenPalaversa10
KnoesterMitov7
MilneMitov6
MitovKnoester6
ClarksonMilne6

Falkirk

FromToPasses
HendersonSpencer13
HendersonNeilson12
NeilsonHenderson12
HendersonBain11
SpencerMcCann10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

9+3.06+0.510−2.09+3.05+0.516+9.54−1.54+0.515+4.510+4.06−3.50−6.02−2.04−1.57−2.54+0.52+0.51−2.53+0.53−4.05+4.00−0.50−0.53+2.04+2.00−0.50−0.510.00−0.52+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Falkirk

10+2.56+1.013+3.57+0.52−1.07−0.59+6.07+0.56−0.58+4.560.05−1.05+1.03−2.56+0.53−1.54−1.50−1.03+1.03−1.53−1.01−1.50−1.03+1.09+4.50−1.000.00−0.500.03+2.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.030.010.020.010.010.040.010.02−0.010.020.030.010.030.030.070.04−0.01−0.02−0.050.030.110.15LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.030.010.030.030.030.040.050.030.010.010.030.140.110.100.15−0.190.050.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.38AttackAberdeen1.24 → 1.21Falkirk1.00 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.44 → 1.45Falkirk1.81 → 1.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six36%25%−11
11th7%10%+3
Bottom3%8%+5
Falkirk
Top six9%16%+7
Bottom45%30%−15
Dundee FC
Top six7%7%0
11th25%24%−1
Bottom20%25%+5
Livingston
Top six11%12%+1
11th23%21%−2
Bottom18%21%+3

From the forecast before the match (31 August 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenFalkirk
Expected goals1.920.94
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.020.75
Clean sheet39%15%

Aberdeen 60%Draw 23%Falkirk 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Falkirk goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%5%2%5%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 31 August 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawFalkirk win
Aberdeen
Top six36%41%29%25%
11th7%6%9%10%
Bottom3%2%5%8%
Falkirk
Top six9%6%10%16%
Bottom45%51%40%30%
Dundee FC
Top six7%6%7%7%
11th25%26%23%24%
Bottom20%19%20%25%
Livingston
Top six11%11%11%12%
11th23%24%22%21%
Bottom18%17%20%21%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–210 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.55–1.17
  2. L0–24 AugHearts (A)xG 1.40–1.03
  3. L1–217 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.70–1.93
  4. L1–514 MayCeltic (H)xG 1.07–3.68
  5. L0–411 MayRangers (A)xG 0.57–2.60
  6. L0–13 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 0.47–1.22

Falkirk

  1. L1–39 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.78–1.59
  2. D2–23 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.02–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenFalkirk
Position12th11th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠0–⁠20–⁠1–⁠1
Points0 (0.00 per game)1 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.31
Goals0–⁠43–⁠5
xG per game0.97–⁠1.101.40–⁠1.39
Home: points, xG per game0.00, 0.55–⁠1.171.00, 2.02–⁠1.19
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 1.40–⁠1.030.00, 0.78–⁠1.59
ManagerJimmy Thelin (40)John McGlynn (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.38AttackAberdeen1.24, 6thFalkirk1.00, 12thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.44, 8thFalkirk1.81, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugAberdeen attack: 1.24Falkirk attack: 1.001.241.00FalkirkAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugAberdeen defence: 1.44Falkirk defence: 1.811.811.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−2%+15%−1%+9%
Counter-attacks−45%−41%−20%+24%
Set pieces−9%+27%+43%−30%
Penalties−87%−37%−33%+133%
Headers−31%+37%+40%−8%
Left side−12%+9%−20%−22%
Centre+6%+14%+34%+2%
Right side−30%+17%−2%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdFalkirk concededLeft side−12%+12%Centre+6%+2%Right side−30%−22%Open play−2%+9%Counter-attacks−45%+24%Set pieces−9%−30%Headers−31%−8%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdAberdeen concededLeft side−20%+17%Centre+34%+14%Right side−2%+9%Open play−1%+15%Counter-attacks−20%−41%Set pieces+43%+27%Headers+40%+37%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenFalkirk

0.97xG1.40
1.10xG against1.39
40%Possession56%
8.5Shots11.0
13.0Shots against10.0
1.5Shots on target3.5
2.0Big chances3.0
14.0Touches in the opposition box24.0
346Passes412
72%Pass accuracy77%
2.0Corners3.5
33%Field tilt57%
20.0Final-third entries42.0
5.0Box entries11.5
21.7Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level190.190.85
Ahead0––
Behind711.191.17

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.421.31
Ahead0––
Behind421.381.48

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.110–1
16–300.080.330–1
31–450.000.170–0
46–600.300.280–0
61–750.170.150–2
76–900.390.050–0

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.010–0
16–300.290.310–1
31–450.260.170–2
46–600.160.501–0
61–750.350.262–1
76–900.090.140–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 2Jensen 2Milne 2Devlin 1Knoester 1Shinnie 2Nilsen 2Dorrington 1Clarkson 1Milanovic 2Aouchiche 2Keskinen 2Yengi 24-2-3-1 in every start

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 2Adams 2McCann 1Neilson 1Henderson 2Neilson 1McCann 1Tait 2Spencer 2Miller 1Arfield 1Ross 1Nesbitt 1Miller 1Ross 1MacIver 1Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morris111,365360.170.17
Sokler121,009210.270.04
Clarkson232,107410.100.20
Keskinen342,592520.150.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.