Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 0–3 Hibernian

Saturday 12 September 2020, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 7 · Half-time 0–2

Hibernian Nisbet 14', Newell 17', Boyle 59'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals03
xG1.241.09
Expected Points1.481.21

St. Mirren 39%Draw 31%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 0–3, 2%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%9%5%2%8%3%8%9%6%2%3%3%2%12%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTErwin on for Dennis, 46'McAllister on for Sheron and Connolly on for Durmus, 59'MacPherson on for McGrath, 82'Morias on for Obika, 87'Gullan on for Nisbet, 77'Wright on for Murphy, 81'Shanley on for Boyle and Mallan on for Newell, 87'Nisbet 14'Newell 17'Boyle 59'St. Mirren 1.24Hibernian 1.0900.511.50153045607590HTErwin on for Dennis, 46'McAllister on for Sheron and Connolly on for Durmus, 59'MacPherson on for McGrath, 82'Morias on for Obika, 87'Gullan on for Nisbet, 77'Wright on for Murphy, 81'Shanley on for Boyle and Mallan on for Newell, 87'Nisbet 14'Newell 17'Boyle 59'1.241.09St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

1.24 +0.23xG1.09 −0.47
0.66 −0.29xG on target0.75 −0.85
15 +6.0Shots15 +3.8
3 −0.8Shots on target5 +1.5
1 −0.2Big chances1 −0.8
52% +11Possession48% 0
383 +62Passes363 +16
71% +10Pass accuracy67% 0
62% +27Field tilt38% −3
42 +14Final-third entries30 0
9 +2.2Box entries9 −1.7
12.0 −2Passes per defensive action16.1 +2
8 +4.8Corners7 +2.3
14 +1Tackles12 −4
9 −3.8Interceptions9 0.0
15 −13Clearances22 −3
2 −2.8Saves3 +0.8
14 +2Fouls14 +2
1 −0.8Offsides4 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Sheron 42', 0.44 xGDennis 33', 0.10 xGMorias 90+4', 0.10 xGObika 85', 0.08 xGMcAllister 80', 0.07 xGErwin 86', 0.07 xGDurmus 42', 0.06 xGTait 81', 0.06 xGDurmus 37', 0.05 xGDennis 38', 0.04 xGErwin 52', 0.04 xGConnolly 74', 0.04 xGMacPherson 85', 0.04 xGMcAllister 90+3', 0.04 xGSheron 31', 0.02 xG6%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals65%0.81 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals19%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 11', 0.15 xGDoidge 90+1', 0.10 xGDoidge 71', 0.06 xGDoidge 28', 0.05 xGNewell 45', 0.05 xGNisbet 50', 0.05 xGBoyle 62', 0.04 xGDoig 27', 0.03 xGBoyle 28', 0.03 xGNisbet 36', 0.03 xGMurphy 44', 0.03 xGGogic 69', 0.03 xGNisbet 14', 0.22 xG, goalBoyle 59', 0.15 xG, goalNewell 17', 0.07 xG, goal39%0.43 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.43 xG, 2 goals20%0.22 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals38%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.53 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.80 10 shots, 2 goals
0.71 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.28 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (15%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Hibernian 0.37 xG
Hibernian ahead
80 min (85%) · St. Mirren 1.24, Hibernian 0.71 xG

Line-ups

292251621762511209ZlamalFraserMcCarthyFoleyTaitMcGrathSheronErhahonDurmusDennisObikaYellow cardYellow card82'59'59'46'87'St. Mirren 4-4-2Jim Goodwin16542510131118915MarcianoMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleGogicNewellMurphyDoidgeNisbetYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardGoal87'87'81'77'Hibernian 4-4-2Jack Ross

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Erwin for Dennis
  • 59' Connolly for Durmus
  • 59' McAllister for Sheron
  • 82' MacPherson for McGrath
  • 87' Morias for Obika

Hibernian substitutes

  • 77' Gullan for Nisbet
  • 81' Wright for Murphy
  • 87' Shanley for Boyle
  • 87' Mallan for Newell

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ZlamalGK900.000.0000.0322
FraserRB900.000.4910.3753
McCarthy CB900.000.011−0.04710
FoleyCB900.000.0000.0764
TaitLB900.060.0800.1475
McGrathRM820.000.0510.0525
Sheron CM590.460.0100.0122
ErhahonCM900.000.2820.18107
DurmusLM590.110.010−0.0123
DennisST460.150.020−0.0100
ObikaST870.080.040−0.0411
ErwinFW440.110.0320.0510
ConnollyFW310.040.1520.1962
McAllisterMF310.100.0610.0830
MacPhersonMF80.040.0610.0340
MoriasFW30.100.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarcianoGK900.000.0000.0230
McGinnRB9010.000.0110.0576
PorteousCB900.000.0000.03413
Hanlon CB900.000.0000.04311
DoigLB900.030.0300.0972
BoyleRM87110.370.0620.1273
GogicCM900.030.0100.0245
Newell CM87110.110.1620.2042
MurphyLM810.030.0510.0240
DoidgeST900.210.0810.1913
NisbetST7710.300.1820.2342
GullanFW130.000.0000.0621
WrightDF90.000.0000.0010
ShanleyFW30.000.1310.0000
MallanMF30.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Zlamal and McCarthy: 3 passesMcCarthy and Sheron: 3 passesFoley and Dennis: 3 passesTait and Obika: 3 passesMcGrath and Durmus: 3 passesMcGrath and Dennis: 3 passesSheron and Obika: 3 passesDennis and Obika: 3 passesFoley and Tait: 4 passesSheron and Erhahon: 4 passesFraser and McCarthy: 5 passesMcCarthy and Foley: 5 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 5 passesFraser and Sheron: 6 passesDurmus and Dennis: 6 passesErhahon and Dennis: 7 passesFraser and McGrath: 8 passesTait and Durmus: 10 passesTait and Erhahon: 13 passesErhahon and Durmus: 13 passesZlamal: 4 completed passesFraser: 15 completed passesMcCarthy: 15 completed passesFoley: 10 completed passesTait: 17 completed passesMcGrath: 10 completed passesSheron: 10 completed passesErhahon: 22 completed passesDurmus: 16 completed passesDennis: 14 completed passesObika: 7 completed passes292251621762511209ZlamalFraserMcCarthyFoleyTaitMcGrathSheronErhahonDurmusDennisObikaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Marciano and Doidge: 4 passesMcGinn and Porteous: 4 passesMcGinn and Doidge: 4 passesBoyle and Gogic: 4 passesMarciano and Newell: 5 passesMcGinn and Gogic: 5 passesHanlon and Murphy: 5 passesBoyle and Nisbet: 5 passesDoidge and Nisbet: 5 passesMarciano and McGinn: 6 passesMarciano and Hanlon: 6 passesMcGinn and Newell: 6 passesPorteous and Gogic: 6 passesBoyle and Newell: 6 passesMcGinn and Boyle: 7 passesGogic and Newell: 7 passesMurphy and Nisbet: 7 passesHanlon and Newell: 8 passesMarciano and Porteous: 9 passesPorteous and Newell: 9 passesNewell and Murphy: 16 passesDoig and Murphy: 21 passesDoig and Newell: 25 passesMarciano: 22 completed passesMcGinn: 24 completed passesPorteous: 26 completed passesHanlon: 19 completed passesDoig: 30 completed passesBoyle: 9 completed passesGogic: 20 completed passesNewell: 40 completed passesMurphy: 30 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passesNisbet: 13 completed passes16542510131118915MarcianoMcGinnPorteousHanlonDoigBoyleGogicNewellMurphyDoidgeNisbetStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ErhahonTait11
TaitErhahon8
DurmusErhahon7
ErhahonDurmus7
FraserMcCarthy7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
DoigMurphy15
NewellDoig13
DoigNewell12
MurphyNewell10
PorteousMarciano8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−5.414+6.83−6.22−4.215+8.86−1.83−4.43−7.04−5.05+0.65−1.88+3.28+3.44−2.86+0.84+1.06+3.411+8.21−2.62−0.20−1.22+0.63+0.84+1.80−0.200.01+0.81+1.01−0.27−12.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 5 matches

Hibernian

8+1.210+6.217−0.54−2.82−7.260.013+5.517+10.23−2.75−3.32−3.58+4.39+4.370.08+4.22−1.83+1.22+0.73−0.32−1.50−0.81+0.22+1.73+2.20−1.30−1.30−0.70−1.30−0.82+0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.030.020.040.020.030.020.020.010.020.040.010.030.030.160.030.040.020.090.100.07−0.160.020.030.40LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.030.010.090.030.040.01−0.010.020.040.010.01−0.010.030.030.170.230.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackSt. Mirren0.68 → 0.70Hibernian0.92 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.33 → 1.37Hibernian0.86 → 0.93

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six15%10%−5
11th20%22%+2
Bottom17%21%+4
Hibernian
Top six91%94%+3

From the forecast before the match (12 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals0.771.25
Win22%47%
Expected Points0.971.72
Clean sheet29%46%

St. Mirren 22%Draw 31%Hibernian 47%

Most likely score 0–1, 16%. Both sides score 39%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%4%1%10%8%3%1%4%5%3%1%1%1%14%16%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six15%24%16%10%
11th20%16%19%22%
Bottom17%10%16%21%
Hibernian
Top six91%86%89%94%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–129 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–2.84
  2. D1–122 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–2.21
  3. W1–015 AugHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.97–0.83
  4. L0–39 AugRangers (A)xG 0.42–2.65
  5. W1–01 AugLivingston (H)xG 1.04–0.55

Hibernian

  1. L0–130 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.46–1.73
  2. W1–023 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.53–0.52
  3. D0–015 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.45–0.89
  4. W1–011 AugDundee United (A)xG 0.90–0.83
  5. W4–18 AugLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.42
  6. W2–11 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.18–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position6th2nd
Played56
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠24–⁠1–⁠1
Points7 (1.40 per game)13 (2.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.021.73
Goals3–⁠58–⁠3
xG per game1.01–⁠1.821.56–⁠1.01
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.18–⁠1.381.33, 1.03–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.89–⁠2.113.00, 2.09–⁠0.92
ManagerJim Goodwin (5)Jack Ross (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.00.51.01.52.0League average 0.93AttackSt. Mirren0.68, 11thHibernian0.92, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.33, 11thHibernian0.86, 4th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugSt. Mirren attack: 0.68Hibernian attack: 0.920.920.68HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.01 Aug30 AugSt. Mirren defence: 1.33Hibernian defence: 0.861.330.86

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+55%+6%−44%
Counter-attacks+42%−83%−43%−73%
Set pieces+10%+40%+31%−8%
Penalties−83%−83%+100%+100%
Headers−33%+97%+25%−14%
Left side−27%+4%−7%−5%
Centre+9%+36%+27%−67%
Right side−34%+109%−1%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−27%−7%Centre+9%−67%Right side−34%−5%Open play−22%−44%Counter-attacks+42%−73%Set pieces+10%−8%Headers−33%−14%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−7%+109%Centre+27%+36%Right side−1%+4%Open play+6%+55%Counter-attacks−43%−83%Set pieces+31%+40%Headers+25%+97%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.01xG1.56
1.82xG against1.01
41%Possession48%
9.0Shots11.2
18.2Shots against12.5
3.8Shots on target3.5
1.2Big chances1.8
321Passes346
61%Pass accuracy66%
3.2Corners4.7
36%Field tilt41%
27.8Final-third entries30.5
6.8Box entries10.7
14.4Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level360.992.05
Ahead371.141.34
Behind170.752.37

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.501.03
Ahead291.951.17
Behind80.510.44

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.261–0
16–300.360.202–1
31–450.150.340–0
46–600.170.430–0
61–750.000.410–4
76–900.230.190–0

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.121–0
16–300.210.151–0
31–450.400.243–2
46–600.080.250–1
61–750.280.051–0
76–900.380.212–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMAMSTSTAlnwick 5Fraser 5McCarthy 4Foley 1Shaughnessy 4Tait 1Tait 4Durmus 1Foley 4MacPherson 3Sheron 4McAllister 1McGrath 3McAllister 3McGrath 2Morias 3Obika 5Durmus 24-3-1-2 in 2 of 5 starts

Formations: 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarciano 6McGinn 5Boyle 1Porteous 6Hanlon 6Doig 5Allan 1Boyle 4Wright 1McGinn 1Gogic 5Hallberg 1Newell 6Horgan 4Doig 1Allan 1Nisbet 4Boyle 1Allan 1Doidge 54-4-2 in 4 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tait5450110.090.20
McGrath5450010.070.09
Alnwick5450000.000.00

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge5470200.360.04
Boyle6540200.260.12
Newell6478000.020.20
Gogic5450000.040.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.