Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Aberdeen 2–1 St. Mirren

Friday 2 October 2020, 19:45 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 10 · Half-time 0–0

Aberdeen Watkins 71', Ferguson 90'

St. Mirren Erhahon 54'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Goals21
xG0.920.48
Expected Points1.690.91

Aberdeen 43%Draw 39%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 0–0, 25%. Final score 2–1, 5%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+11%3%13%3%10%5%1%3%1%25%22%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcLennan on for McGinn and Edmondson on for Wright, 63'Anderson on for Taylor, 87'McGeouch on for Hedges, 90'Watkins 71'Ferguson 90'Erhahon 54'Aberdeen 0.92St. Mirren 0.4800.250.50.7510153045607590HTMcLennan on for McGinn and Edmondson on for Wright, 63'Anderson on for Taylor, 87'McGeouch on for Hedges, 90'Watkins 71'Ferguson 90'Erhahon 54'0.920.48AberdeenSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.92 −0.51xG0.48 −0.52
1.27 −0.23xG on target0.64 −0.13
15 +5Shots11 +1
6 +2.3Shots on target1 −2.1
0 −2.1Big chances0 −1.0
18 −8Touches in the opposition box11 −4
62% +11Possession38% −3
486 +56Passes289 −24
76% +1Pass accuracy60% −3
69% +18Field tilt31% −4
46 +12Final-third entries19 −11
8 −1.1Box entries1 −5.7
9.0 −6Passes per defensive action14.4 −1
5 +1.0Corners6 +1.9
12 −1Tackles21 +8
10 +0.9Interceptions11 +0.4
18 −1Clearances22 −1
0 −1.0Saves4 −0.6
14 0Fouls11 −2
1 −0.1Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

McGinn 8', 0.11 xGTaylor 76', 0.09 xGEdmondson 76', 0.08 xGAnderson 90', 0.08 xGHedges 90', 0.08 xGHayes 8', 0.07 xGHedges 77', 0.06 xGMcCrorie 33', 0.05 xGFerguson 75', 0.05 xGHayes 82', 0.04 xGFerguson 17', 0.03 xGHedges 50', 0.03 xGWatkins 69', 0.03 xGWatkins 71', 0.07 xG, goalFerguson 90+1', 0.03 xG, goal12%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals47%0.43 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.43 xG, 1 goal13%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals28%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Obika 30', 0.06 xGSheron 31', 0.06 xGMacPherson 67', 0.06 xGMcCarthy 68', 0.06 xGErwin 45+1', 0.04 xGSheron 74', 0.04 xGMacPherson 31', 0.03 xGErwin 35', 0.03 xGMorias 53', 0.03 xGMacPherson 70', 0.03 xGErhahon 54', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals38%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals19%0.09 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenSt. Mirren

0.75 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.29 8 shots, 1 goal
0.17 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (80%) · Aberdeen 0.82, St. Mirren 0.32 xG
Aberdeen ahead
1 min (1%) · Aberdeen 0.00, St. Mirren 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
17 min (18%) · Aberdeen 0.10, St. Mirren 0.16 xG

Line-ups

1314411401917255010LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesMcCrorieFergusonHayesWrightWatkinsMcGinnYellow cardGoalGoal87'90'63'63'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes12254196251417239AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyMoriasSheronErhahonMacPhersonMcGrathErwinObikaYellow cardGoalSt. Mirren 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 63' McLennan for McGinn
  • 63' Edmondson for Wright · 1 assist
  • 87' Anderson for Taylor
  • 90' McGeouch for Hedges

St. Mirren substitutes

None used

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0231
HobanCB900.000.0510.3199
TaylorCB870.090.0000.04511
ConsidineCB900.000.0000.0437
HedgesRWB900.170.1020.1664
McCrorie CM900.050.0510.1033
FergusonCM9010.120.0410.0733
HayesLWB900.120.0210.1283
WrightAM630.000.0120.0410
WatkinsST90110.100.0310.2362
McGinnST630.110.010−0.0111
McLennanMF270.000.1110.0951
EdmondsonFW2710.080.0610.0001
AndersonFW30.080.000––0
McGeouchMF00.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0111
FraserCB900.000.0000.0327
McCarthy CB900.060.0000.04411
ShaughnessyCB900.000.1210.12011
MoriasRWB900.030.0100.0245
SheronCM900.100.0210.0103
ErhahonCM9010.030.0100.02211
MacPhersonCM9010.130.0410.0163
McGrathLWB900.000.0420.0248
ErwinST900.070.0420.0231
ObikaST900.060.0310.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Hoban and Watkins: 5 passesTaylor and Considine: 5 passesHedges and McGinn: 5 passesHoban and Ferguson: 6 passesTaylor and Ferguson: 6 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 6 passesConsidine and Wright: 6 passesHedges and McCrorie: 6 passesHedges and Watkins: 6 passesHedges and Hayes: 7 passesMcCrorie and Ferguson: 7 passesFerguson and Watkins: 7 passesWright and Watkins: 7 passesLewis and Considine: 8 passesHoban and Taylor: 8 passesHoban and Wright: 8 passesHedges and Ferguson: 9 passesHedges and Wright: 9 passesFerguson and McGinn: 9 passesHayes and Wright: 9 passesHoban and McCrorie: 10 passesFerguson and Hayes: 10 passesLewis and Hoban: 11 passesConsidine and Hayes: 12 passesFerguson and Wright: 14 passesHoban and Hedges: 20 passesLewis: 19 completed passesHoban: 37 completed passesTaylor: 19 completed passesConsidine: 24 completed passesHedges: 29 completed passesMcCrorie: 20 completed passesFerguson: 38 completed passesHayes: 24 completed passesWright: 24 completed passesWatkins: 17 completed passesMcGinn: 15 completed passes1314411401917255010LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHedgesMcCrorieFergusonHayesWrightWatkinsMcGinnStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

McCarthy and Sheron: 4 passesFraser and Sheron: 4 passesMorias and MacPherson: 4 passesSheron and Erwin: 4 passesMacPherson and Obika: 4 passesObika and Erwin: 4 passesMcCarthy and Morias: 5 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Erhahon: 5 passesFraser and Obika: 5 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 5 passesSheron and Erhahon: 5 passesSheron and Obika: 5 passesMorias and Erhahon: 6 passesMorias and Erwin: 6 passesMcGrath and Obika: 6 passesMacPherson and Erwin: 6 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 7 passesFraser and Morias: 8 passesMorias and Sheron: 8 passesMacPherson and Erhahon: 9 passesMcGrath and Erhahon: 11 passesMcGrath and MacPherson: 19 passesAlnwick: 5 completed passesShaughnessy: 13 completed passesMcCarthy: 15 completed passesFraser: 23 completed passesMorias: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 28 completed passesSheron: 21 completed passesMacPherson: 24 completed passesErhahon: 26 completed passesObika: 10 completed passesErwin: 10 completed passes14522191761425923AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserMoriasMcGrathSheronMacPhersonErhahonObikaErwinStarters, whole match · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
HobanHedges12
ConsidineHayes11
McCrorieFerguson10
LewisHoban9
HayesHedges9

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
MacPhersonMcGrath10
McGrathMacPherson9
ErhahonMcGrath7
ErhahonMacPherson6
McGrathObika5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

6+2.03−2.310−1.612+6.06+1.19+1.37+1.68+1.65−0.46−2.17+2.02−2.43+0.14−1.17−0.42−2.46+3.13+1.06+1.96+2.10−2.02+0.40−1.16+4.43−0.71+0.71+0.71+0.60−0.60−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

St. Mirren

3−2.212+4.322+7.010+2.610+4.06−0.812+4.77−0.310+2.18+0.87+2.44−1.71−3.68+3.76−0.82−2.340.01−2.37+3.72−1.32−0.37+5.81−0.320.01−1.32+1.700.00−0.41+0.80−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.040.010.020.010.020.030.050.010.010.040.110.030.040.080.070.030.080.080.030.150.26LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.02−0.030.01−0.01−0.020.020.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackAberdeen1.21 → 1.18St. Mirren0.81 → 0.84Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.91 → 0.96St. Mirren1.37 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six96%98%+2
St. Mirren
Top six8%6%−2
11th22%25%+3
Bottom23%26%+3
Hamilton Academical
11th21%21%0
Bottom40%39%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.500.71
Win56%17%
Expected Points1.940.79
Clean sheet49%22%

Aberdeen 56%Draw 27%St. Mirren 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 16%. Both sides score 40%.

St. Mirren goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%3%4%1%9%3%6%4%2%2%2%12%16%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawSt. Mirren win
Aberdeen
Top six96%98%95%92%
St. Mirren
Top six8%6%9%16%
11th22%25%21%17%
Bottom23%26%21%14%
Hamilton Academical
11th21%21%22%21%
Bottom40%39%40%44%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–027 SepRoss County (A)xG 3.26–0.46
  2. L0–320 SepMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.75
  3. W1–012 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.76–0.49
  4. W1–030 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.73–0.46
  5. W2–123 AugLivingston (H)xG 2.15–1.62
  6. W1–020 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–0.42

St. Mirren

  1. L0–126 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 0.49–0.65
  2. L1–219 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.16–1.82
  3. L1–216 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.12–2.18
  4. L0–312 SepHibernian (H)xG 1.24–1.09
  5. L0–129 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.29–2.84
  6. D1–122 AugRoss County (H)xG 1.31–2.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenSt. Mirren
Position4th12th
Played79
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠0–⁠22–⁠1–⁠6
Points15 (2.14 per game)7 (0.78 per game)
Expected Points per game1.641.01
Goals8–⁠55–⁠13
xG per game1.43–⁠0.921.00–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.19–⁠1.280.80, 1.04–⁠1.34
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.76–⁠0.450.75, 0.96–⁠2.04
ManagerDerek McInnes (7)Jim Goodwin (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackAberdeen1.21, 3rdSt. Mirren0.81, 12thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen0.91, 3rdSt. Mirren1.37, 10th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepAberdeen attack: 1.21St. Mirren attack: 0.811.210.81St. MirrenAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepAberdeen defence: 0.91St. Mirren defence: 1.371.370.91

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%−32%−37%+47%
Counter-attacks−100%−60%+56%−100%
Set pieces−38%−26%+31%+7%
Penalties+213%−22%−100%−39%
Headers−16%−24%−40%+62%
Left side−44%−42%−35%+12%
Centre−24%−16%+15%+5%
Right side+26%−47%−47%+98%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−44%+98%Centre−24%+5%Right side+26%+12%Open play−4%+47%Counter-attacks−100%−100%Set pieces−38%+7%Headers−16%+62%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−35%−47%Centre+15%−16%Right side−47%−42%Open play−37%−32%Counter-attacks+56%−60%Set pieces+31%−26%Headers−40%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenSt. Mirren

1.43xG1.00
0.92xG against1.65
51%Possession41%
10.1Shots10.0
9.7Shots against16.1
3.7Shots on target3.1
2.1Big chances1.0
26.0Touches in the opposition box15.0
430Passes313
75%Pass accuracy62%
4.0Corners4.1
51%Field tilt35%
34.4Final-third entries29.7
9.1Box entries6.7
15.3Passes per defensive action15.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.700.83
Ahead321.801.00
Behind220.480.96

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.191.82
Ahead231.041.44
Behind370.841.63

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.210–2
16–300.120.151–2
31–450.270.082–0
46–600.310.123–0
61–750.240.190–1
76–900.250.172–0

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.192–1
16–300.260.232–4
31–450.220.300–2
46–600.120.430–2
61–750.040.331–4
76–900.200.150–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 7Hoban 4McCrorie 3Hayes 1Taylor 5McKenna 4Considine 4Kennedy 2Hernández 2McGinn 1Ferguson 5Wright 1Kennedy 1McCrorie 3Ojo 2Hedges 1Hayes 6Considine 1Ferguson 2Wright 2Watkins 1Watkins 4McGinn 2Anderson 1Wright 3Hedges 2Ojo 13-4-1-2 in 2 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 6Zlamal 3Fraser 8MacPherson 1McCarthy 8Foley 2Shaughnessy 7Tait 1Tait 7Fraser 1Obika 1Erhahon 3Sheron 3Foley 1McAllister 5MacPherson 1McGrath 1McGrath 7MacPherson 2Sheron 2Foley 6Erhahon 1Durmus 4Obika 3Morias 1Morias 3Erwin 3Obika 24-1-4-1 in 3 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson7630400.500.04
Hayes7630010.030.11
McCrorie6531100.060.03
Lewis7630000.000.00

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika7647200.260.10
Tait8690110.080.15
McGrath9724010.060.10
MacPherson4464000.040.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.