Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 5 December 2020, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 16 · Half-time 1–1

St. Mirren McGrath 44' (pen)

Aberdeen Hayes 37' · Ferguson sent off 51'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenAberdeen
Goals11
xG2.580.39
Non-penalty xG1.800.39
Expected Points2.770.15

St. Mirren 89%Draw 9%Aberdeen 2%

Most likely score 2–0, 21%. Final score 1–1, 5%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+2%11%5%8%2%7%1%10%4%4%1%1%21%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTFerguson (Aberdeen), second yellow card 51'Erwin on for Obika, 59'MacPherson on for Erhahon, 64'Dennis on for Durmus and McAllister on for Connolly, 78'Logan on for Taylor, 46'Ojo on for Hedges, 61'Main on for Cosgrove, 64'Edmondson on for Kennedy and Devlin on for Hayes, 79'McGrath 44' (pen)Hayes 37'St. Mirren 2.58Aberdeen 0.3901230153045607590HTFerguson (Aberdeen), second yellow card 51'Erwin on for Obika, 59'MacPherson on for Erhahon, 64'Dennis on for Durmus and McAllister on for Connolly, 78'Logan on for Taylor, 46'Ojo on for Hedges, 61'Main on for Cosgrove, 64'Edmondson on for Kennedy and Devlin on for Hayes, 79'McGrath 44' (pen)Hayes 37'2.580.39St. MirrenAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenAberdeen

2.58 +1.64xG0.39 −0.94
1.80Non-penalty xG0.39
2.63 +1.94xG on target0.33 −1.12
25 +15Shots9 −2
12 +9.3Shots on target2 −2.1
2 +1.2Big chances0 −1.6
34 +20Touches in the opposition box10 −11
52% +10Possession48% −2
413 +89Passes394 −22
76% +14Pass accuracy72% −2
62% +24Field tilt38% −14
58 +28Final-third entries36 −1
16 +9.7Box entries8 −1.6
11.0 −4Passes per defensive action13.1 −1
7 +2.6Corners1 −4.1
9 −4Tackles14 +2
14 +3Interceptions11 0
16 −6Clearances24 +5
1 −3.0Saves10 +8.4
14 +2Fouls15 +1
3 +1.4Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Erwin 90+4', 0.49 xGMcGrath 71', 0.14 xGTait 90+1', 0.14 xGConnolly 10', 0.12 xGConnolly 20', 0.10 xGDurmus 70', 0.07 xGMcGrath 12', 0.06 xGTait 14', 0.05 xGTait 30', 0.05 xGObika 42', 0.05 xGDurmus 53', 0.05 xGFraser 86', 0.05 xGMcCarthy 90+1', 0.05 xGDurmus 3', 0.04 xGMcGrath 29', 0.04 xGShaughnessy 31', 0.04 xGDurmus 33', 0.04 xGMacPherson 66', 0.04 xGErwin 89', 0.04 xGDurmus 30', 0.03 xGMacPherson 85', 0.03 xGMacPherson 86', 0.03 xGMacPherson 90', 0.03 xGMacPherson 71', 0.02 xG16%0.28 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals53%0.95 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.95 xG, 0 goals18%0.33 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals8%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Hedges 4', 0.07 xGMcCrorie 11', 0.05 xGHoban 26', 0.05 xGEdmondson 87', 0.05 xGHayes 25', 0.04 xGKennedy 8', 0.03 xGMcCrorie 28', 0.03 xGConsidine 81', 0.03 xGHayes 37', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals58%0.22 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal11%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals32%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenAberdeen

1.40 17 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.27 6 shots, 1 goal
0.40 7 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.12 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
87 min (93%) · St. Mirren 1.74, Aberdeen 0.39 xG
Aberdeen ahead
7 min (7%) · St. Mirren 0.84, Aberdeen 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1245227111721259AlnwickTaitShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserDoyle-HayesDurmusMcGrathConnollyErhahonObikaYellow cardGoalYellow card78'78'64'59'St. Mirren 4-5-1Jim Goodwin134145174019331116LewisHobanConsidineTaylorLeighHayesMcCrorieFergusonKennedyHedgesCosgroveGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow46'79'79'61'64'Aberdeen 4-4-1-1Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 59' Erwin for Obika
  • 64' MacPherson for Erhahon
  • 78' Dennis for Durmus
  • 78' McAllister for Connolly

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Logan for Taylor
  • 61' Ojo for Hedges
  • 64' Main for Cosgrove
  • 79' Devlin for Hayes
  • 79' Edmondson for Kennedy

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0222
TaitRB900.240.1520.4094
ShaughnessyCB900.040.0100.2385
McCarthyCB900.050.0100.0766
FraserLB900.050.0200.0467
Doyle-Hayes RM900.000.1100.27193
DurmusCM780.230.0510.0356
McGrathCM9011.030.4050.2172
ConnollyCM780.210.0410.0942
Erhahon LM640.000.0200.0775
ObikaST590.050.012−0.0310
ErwinFW310.520.011−0.0310
MacPhersonMF260.150.0710.1361
DennisFW120.000.0000.0000
McAllisterFW120.000.3320.1350

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.06102
HobanRB900.050.0100.0336
ConsidineCB900.030.0400.151411
TaylorCB460.000.0610.1592
LeighLB900.000.0200.0968
Hayes RM7910.080.0210.0612
McCrorieCM900.080.0100.0015
Ferguson CM510.000.0320.0525
KennedyLM7910.030.0510.0252
HedgesAM610.070.051−0.0111
CosgroveST640.000.051−0.0101
LoganDF440.000.0000.0135
OjoMF290.000.0000.0000
MainFW260.000.0210.0310
DevlinDF110.000.0000.0012
EdmondsonFW110.050.0100.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

McGrath and Durmus: 3 passesErhahon and Durmus: 3 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 4 passesFraser and McCarthy: 4 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesShaughnessy and Durmus: 4 passesTait and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesTait and Erhahon: 4 passesTait and Obika: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 4 passesMcGrath and Erhahon: 4 passesMcGrath and Obika: 4 passesErhahon and Obika: 4 passesDurmus and Obika: 4 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 5 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 5 passesConnolly and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesFraser and McGrath: 6 passesTait and McGrath: 6 passesTait and Durmus: 6 passesConnolly and Erhahon: 6 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 7 passesMcCarthy and Shaughnessy: 7 passesDoyle-Hayes and McGrath: 11 passesAlnwick: 3 completed passesFraser: 11 completed passesMcCarthy: 20 completed passesShaughnessy: 14 completed passesTait: 14 completed passesConnolly: 6 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 21 completed passesMcGrath: 22 completed passesErhahon: 14 completed passesDurmus: 12 completed passesObika: 8 completed passes1225422171725119AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitConnollyDoyle-HayesMcGrathErhahonDurmusObikaStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Lewis and Taylor: 4 passesFerguson and Hedges: 4 passesLewis and Leigh: 5 passesTaylor and Hayes: 5 passesConsidine and McCrorie: 5 passesLeigh and Ferguson: 5 passesLeigh and McCrorie: 5 passesMcCrorie and Kennedy: 5 passesMcCrorie and Hedges: 6 passesTaylor and Considine: 7 passesConsidine and Leigh: 7 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 7 passesHayes and Ferguson: 7 passesHayes and Kennedy: 7 passesFerguson and McCrorie: 7 passesLewis and Considine: 8 passesTaylor and Ferguson: 8 passesTaylor and McCrorie: 8 passesConsidine and Kennedy: 8 passesLeigh and Hayes: 9 passesFerguson and Kennedy: 13 passesLeigh and Kennedy: 14 passesLewis: 15 completed passesHoban: 11 completed passesTaylor: 19 completed passesConsidine: 28 completed passesLeigh: 29 completed passesHayes: 16 completed passesFerguson: 29 completed passesMcCrorie: 18 completed passesKennedy: 24 completed passesHedges: 13 completed passesCosgrove: 4 completed passes131445171940331116LewisHobanTaylorConsidineLeighHayesFergusonMcCrorieKennedyHedgesCosgroveStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Doyle-HayesMcGrath12
FraserDoyle-Hayes11
ShaughnessyDoyle-Hayes10
McGrathTait9
Doyle-HayesTait8

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
LeighKennedy10
KennedyLeigh9
HedgesMcCrorie8
FergusonKennedy8
LewisLeigh8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.86−1.412−2.43−2.912+5.213+4.86−1.56−2.010+2.45−0.19+3.34−0.25+0.510+3.48+4.16+2.12−1.01−2.56+2.24+1.81−0.70−1.24+2.13+0.72+1.200.00−0.51+0.82+1.22−5.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Aberdeen

5+0.115+9.816+4.110+2.96+0.94−3.18+2.64−2.36−1.06−1.53−2.06+1.26+2.69+3.65−2.24−0.16+2.54+1.82−1.89+4.60−1.92+0.410.04+2.01−2.40−0.90−0.61+0.10−0.91+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.040.050.010.020.060.050.060.020.070.120.040.070.050.070.070.060.130.16−0.010.070.090.29LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.030.010.010.020.020.020.020.020.030.020.03−0.010.020.020.050.030.010.01−0.060.010.070.090.080.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackSt. Mirren0.86 → 0.91Aberdeen1.25 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.32 → 1.28Aberdeen1.05 → 1.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six10%10%0
11th21%21%0
Bottom11%11%0
Aberdeen
Top six99%99%0
Hamilton Academical
11th21%21%0
Bottom59%59%0
Ross County
11th32%32%0
Bottom21%22%+1

From the forecast before the match (5 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenAberdeen
Expected goals0.811.29
Win23%47%
Expected Points0.991.71
Clean sheet28%44%

St. Mirren 23%Draw 30%Aberdeen 47%

Most likely score 0–1, 15%. Both sides score 41%.

Aberdeen goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+10%4%1%9%8%4%1%4%5%3%1%1%1%13%15%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawAberdeen win
St. Mirren
Top six10%17%10%8%
11th21%14%21%23%
Bottom11%6%11%14%
Aberdeen
Top six99%98%99%>99%
Hamilton Academical
11th21%20%21%22%
Bottom59%63%59%58%
Ross County
11th32%34%32%30%
Bottom21%22%22%20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W1–021 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.39–0.46
  2. D0–06 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.38–0.20
  3. L1–22 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.48–0.92
  4. L0–126 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 0.49–0.65
  5. L1–219 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.16–1.82
  6. L1–216 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.12–2.18

Aberdeen

  1. D1–125 NovHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.52–0.49
  2. L0–422 NovRangers (A)xG 0.57–2.04
  3. W2–06 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.88–0.67
  4. D3–325 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.76–2.04
  5. W4–220 OctHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.66–1.65
  6. D0–017 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.21–0.48

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenAberdeen
Position11th3rd
Played1214
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠78–⁠3–⁠3
Points11 (0.92 per game)27 (1.93 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.54
Goals7–⁠1520–⁠16
xG per game0.94–⁠1.371.33–⁠1.02
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 1.10–⁠1.152.00, 1.37–⁠1.24
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.79–⁠1.591.83, 1.26–⁠0.73
ManagerJim Goodwin (12)Derek McInnes (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackSt. Mirren0.86, 12thAberdeen1.25, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.32, 8thAberdeen1.05, 3rd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren attack: 0.86Aberdeen attack: 1.251.250.86AberdeenSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren defence: 1.32Aberdeen defence: 1.051.321.05

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−35%+26%−10%−30%
Counter-attacks−16%−100%−31%−28%
Set pieces+17%−10%−27%−36%
Penalties−100%−63%+92%+28%
Headers−41%+37%−15%−36%
Left side−32%−5%−23%−28%
Centre+4%−15%−26%−40%
Right side−47%+75%+11%−22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdAberdeen concededLeft side−32%−22%Centre+4%−40%Right side−47%−28%Open play−35%−30%Counter-attacks−16%−28%Set pieces+17%−36%Headers−41%−36%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−23%+75%Centre−26%−15%Right side+11%−5%Open play−10%+26%Counter-attacks−31%−100%Set pieces−27%−10%Headers−15%+37%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenAberdeen

0.94xG1.33
1.37xG against1.02
42%Possession50%
10.3Shots11.4
14.1Shots against9.9
2.7Shots on target4.1
0.8Big chances1.6
14.2Touches in the opposition box21.2
324Passes416
62%Pass accuracy74%
4.4Corners5.1
38%Field tilt52%
29.9Final-third entries36.8
6.3Box entries9.6
14.6Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.041.28
Ahead210.901.19
Behind280.841.63

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.580.79
Ahead311.291.23
Behind180.831.18

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.182–1
16–300.220.182–4
31–450.190.240–2
46–600.110.342–2
61–750.070.261–5
76–900.210.160–1

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.153–3
16–300.120.114–3
31–450.250.124–1
46–600.190.203–5
61–750.200.202–2
76–900.290.244–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 9Zlamal 3Fraser 11MacPherson 1McCarthy 11Shaughnessy 9Foley 3Tait 1Tait 8Obika 2Fraser 1Erhahon 4Sheron 3Foley 1McAllister 5MacPherson 2Morias 2McGrath 8Sheron 3Doyle-Hayes 1Foley 6Erhahon 3MacPherson 3Durmus 4Obika 3McGrath 2Erwin 4Obika 3Morias 34-1-4-1 in 3 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 14Hoban 11McCrorie 3Hayes 1Taylor 12McKenna 4Considine 11Kennedy 3Hedges 3Logan 2Ferguson 9Ojo 4Kennedy 1McCrorie 6Campbell 2McGeouch 2Hayes 10Kennedy 2Considine 1Wright 5Hedges 4Ferguson 2Watkins 7Cosgrove 3Anderson 1Hedges 4Wright 4Edmondson 33-4-1-2 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 October 2020Aberdeen2–1St. MirrenxG 0.92–0.48

1 league meeting since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 0, Aberdeen won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 0.48–0.92 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika9838200.290.08
Morias6548000.280.04
Tait10870110.100.13
MacPherson6625010.080.10

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ferguson121,080820.450.05
Watkins9732210.330.07
Hedges121,072320.180.18
Wright10783210.200.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.