Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hamilton Academical 0–2 Kilmarnock

Sunday 16 May 2021, 12:00 · Fountain of Youth Stadium · Round 38 · Half-time 0–2

Kilmarnock Pinnock 9', 44'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Goals02
xG0.482.24
Non-penalty xG0.481.45
Expected Points0.222.65

Hamilton Academical 3%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 84%

Most likely score 0–2, 22%. Final score 0–2, 22%.

Kilmarnock goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+2%13%6%1%1%7%11%8%3%1%3%2%22%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTStanger on for Stirling, 53'Thomas on for Munro and C. Smith on for Anderson, 58'Moyo on for L. Smith, 66'Redfern on for Mimnaugh, 67'McKenzie on for Burke, 67'Tshibola on for Kiltie and Oakley on for Lafferty, 75'Mulumbu on for Dicker, 89'Pinnock 9'Pinnock 44'Kilmarnock 2.24Hamilton Academical 0.4801230153045607590HTStanger on for Stirling, 53'Thomas on for Munro and C. Smith on for Anderson, 58'Moyo on for L. Smith, 66'Redfern on for Mimnaugh, 67'McKenzie on for Burke, 67'Tshibola on for Kiltie and Oakley on for Lafferty, 75'Mulumbu on for Dicker, 89'Pinnock 9'Pinnock 44'2.240.48Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

0.48 −0.41xG2.24 +1.18
0.48Non-penalty xG1.45
0.48 −0.35xG on target2.46 +1.49
9 −0.1Shots8 −3.0
1 −1.8Shots on target4 +0.6
0 −0.9Big chances4 +3.0
57% +16Possession43% −4
444 +144Passes321 −43
81% +22Pass accuracy67% −1
45% +10Field tilt55% +4
44 +15Final-third entries37 0
8 +0.8Box entries9 −1.5
10.2 −4Passes per defensive action12.4 −2
6 +1.8Corners4 −1.2
9 −8Tackles17 +4
11 −1Interceptions5 −6
16 −7Clearances18 +2
2 −1.3Saves1 −1.3
14 +1Fouls16 +4
0 −1.6Offsides4 +2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hamilton Academical

Moyo 88', 0.09 xGMcMann 48', 0.07 xGOdoffin 76', 0.07 xGThomas 90+1', 0.07 xGL. Smith 22', 0.05 xGL. Smith 50', 0.04 xGMunro 13', 0.03 xGL. Smith 53', 0.03 xGThomas 86', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals33%0.16 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals40%0.19 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals27%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Pinnock 64', 0.28 xGLafferty 73', 0.15 xGPinnock 39', 0.07 xGPower 73', 0.05 xGPinnock 58', 0.03 xGPinnock 44', 0.45 xG, goalPinnock 9', 0.43 xG, goal10%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals54%0.78 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.78 xG, 1 goal34%0.49 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.49 xG, 1 goal2%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

0.41 8 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.98 5 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.45 1 shot, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · Hamilton Academical 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.43 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
84 min (90%) · Hamilton Academical 0.48, Kilmarnock 1.81 xG

Line-ups

31616311421518217J. SmithHamiltonMartinMcMannL. SmithStirlingOdoffinHughesMimnaughMunroAndersonYellow card66'53'67'58'58'Hamilton Academical 3-4-2-1Brian Rice162251436829101928DoyleMillenBroadfootRossiHaunstrupPowerDickerBurkeKiltiePinnockLaffertyYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal89'67'75'75'Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1Tommy Wright

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 53' Stanger for Stirling
  • 58' C. Smith for Anderson
  • 58' Thomas for Munro
  • 66' Moyo for L. Smith
  • 67' Redfern for Mimnaugh

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 67' McKenzie for Burke
  • 75' Tshibola for Kiltie
  • 75' Oakley for Lafferty
  • 89' Mulumbu for Dicker

Players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
J. SmithGK900.000.0000.0340
HamiltonCB900.000.0200.14147
Martin CB900.000.0000.0338
McMannCB900.070.0100.0955
L. SmithRWB660.120.0110.0432
StirlingCM530.000.0210.0971
OdoffinCM900.070.0100.0265
HughesLWB900.000.031−0.0112
MimnaughAM670.000.0100.0011
MunroAM580.030.0100.0251
AndersonST580.000.0100.0310
StangerDF370.000.0510.1382
C. SmithFW320.000.0610.0110
ThomasFW320.110.0100.0350
MoyoFW240.090.0110.0103
RedfernMF230.000.0100.0222

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoyleGK900.000.0000.0002
MillenRB9010.000.2320.26111
BroadfootCB900.000.0000.0448
RossiCB900.000.0000.0106
Haunstrup LB900.000.0400.13134
Power DM9010.050.0310.0658
Dicker DM890.000.0310.0437
BurkeRW670.000.1520.1350
Kiltie AM750.000.020−0.0423
PinnockLW9022.040.0100.0542
LaffertyST750.150.0200.0010
McKenzieMF230.000.0000.0011
TshibolaMF150.000.000−0.0100
OakleyFW150.000.0000.0000
MulumbuMF10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hamilton Academical

Martin and Stirling: 4 passesHamilton and Anderson: 4 passesL. Smith and Hughes: 4 passesL. Smith and Stirling: 4 passesStirling and Anderson: 4 passesMunro and Anderson: 4 passesJ. Smith and Martin: 6 passesMartin and Mimnaugh: 6 passesMcMann and Hughes: 6 passesJ. Smith and McMann: 7 passesMcMann and L. Smith: 7 passesMcMann and Munro: 7 passesHamilton and Hughes: 7 passesHughes and Stirling: 7 passesMartin and Odoffin: 8 passesMcMann and Odoffin: 8 passesHughes and Odoffin: 8 passesHamilton and Odoffin: 10 passesOdoffin and Stirling: 11 passesMartin and Hamilton: 17 passesMcMann and Mimnaugh: 17 passesHamilton and Stirling: 20 passesMartin and McMann: 25 passesJ. Smith: 8 completed passesMartin: 37 completed passesMcMann: 41 completed passesHamilton: 43 completed passesL. Smith: 9 completed passesHughes: 19 completed passesOdoffin: 31 completed passesStirling: 24 completed passesMimnaugh: 17 completed passesMunro: 11 completed passesAnderson: 8 completed passes31163611152418217J. SmithMartinMcMannHamiltonL. SmithHughesOdoffinStirlingMimnaughMunroAndersonStarters until 53' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Millen and Kiltie: 4 passesBroadfoot and Dicker: 4 passesBroadfoot and Power: 4 passesHaunstrup and Power: 4 passesBurke and Pinnock: 4 passesMillen and Lafferty: 5 passesRossi and Dicker: 5 passesDicker and Power: 5 passesPower and Kiltie: 5 passesBurke and Kiltie: 5 passesDicker and Pinnock: 6 passesRossi and Haunstrup: 8 passesPower and Burke: 9 passesMillen and Power: 10 passesMillen and Burke: 10 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 10 passesHaunstrup and Dicker: 12 passesDoyle: 10 completed passesMillen: 24 completed passesBroadfoot: 11 completed passesRossi: 15 completed passesHaunstrup: 21 completed passesDicker: 24 completed passesPower: 25 completed passesBurke: 14 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passesPinnock: 10 completed passesLafferty: 6 completed passes162251438629101928DoyleMillenBroadfootRossiHaunstrupDickerPowerBurkeKiltiePinnockLaffertyStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
MartinMcMann17
HamiltonStirling12
HamiltonMartin12
MartinHamilton11
McMannMimnaugh10

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerMillen9
HaunstrupPinnock8
MillenBurke8
MillenPower8
HaunstrupDicker7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hamilton Academical

5+0.73−3.413−3.16−1.45−1.013+5.53−4.36−2.09+1.25+0.47+2.06+2.23−2.03−4.02−2.76+2.630.02−1.44−0.43+0.24+2.40−1.40−1.44+1.60−0.80−0.30−0.51+0.810.03−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 37 matches

Kilmarnock

5+1.44−1.517+4.44−2.95−1.15−1.35−1.75−1.390.010+2.15+0.88+2.640.06+0.83−2.34+0.48+4.21−1.67+3.57+2.55+2.60−1.91−0.62+0.45+2.60−1.00−0.44+3.10−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 37 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hamilton Academical

0.010.040.040.040.030.020.040.020.010.020.040.040.060.010.020.010.030.070.03−0.010.03−0.080.010.14LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.030.020.040.020.020.020.030.050.04−0.010.010.020.010.010.030.020.070.03−0.030.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackHamilton Acad…0.88 → 0.86Kilmarnock1.01 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.49 → 1.51Kilmarnock1.30 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th81%52%−29
Ross County
11th19%48%+29

From the forecast before the match (16 May 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Expected goals1.091.23
Win32%39%
Expected Points1.241.46
Clean sheet29%34%

Hamilton Academical 32%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Kilmarnock goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+7%3%1%8%3%1%6%7%4%2%2%3%2%10%11%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 May 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHamilton Academical winDrawKilmarnock win
Kilmarnock
11th81%>99%>99%52%
Ross County
11th19%––48%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hamilton Academical

  1. L1–212 MayRoss County (A)xG 0.69–0.41
  2. W2–11 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 1.23–0.68
  3. L0–121 AprMotherwell (H)xG 0.48–0.57
  4. L0–110 AprDundee United (H)xG 2.76–1.32
  5. D1–120 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.79–1.81
  6. L1–213 MarLivingston (A)xG 0.19–1.26

Kilmarnock

  1. D3–312 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 1.33–1.21
  2. L0–21 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.93–1.00
  3. W3–021 AprDundee United (H)xG 2.29–1.15
  4. D2–210 AprRoss County (H)xG 0.69–1.07
  5. W4–120 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.33
  6. L2–36 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.67–1.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Position12th11th
Played3737
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠9–⁠219–⁠6–⁠22
Points30 (0.81 per game)33 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game0.921.19
Goals34–⁠6541–⁠54
xG per game0.89–⁠1.831.06–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 0.77–⁠1.781.21, 1.27–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game0.95, 1.01–⁠1.870.56, 0.84–⁠1.30
ManagerBrian Rice (37)Tommy Wright (9)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackHamilton Acad…0.88, 12thKilmarnock1.01, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.49, 11thKilmarnock1.30, 8th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHamilton Academical attack: 0.88Kilmarnock attack: 1.011.010.88KilmarnockHamilton AcademicalDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHamilton Academical defence: 1.49Kilmarnock defence: 1.301.491.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−40%+63%−24%+2%
Counter-attacks−55%+98%−85%−29%
Set pieces−11%+13%−2%+18%
Penalties−3%−3%+14%−19%
Headers−12%+41%−6%+1%
Left side−41%+42%−18%+11%
Centre−30%+66%−28%+2%
Right side−30%+28%−7%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−41%+6%Centre−30%+2%Right side−30%+11%Open play−40%+2%Counter-attacks−55%−29%Set pieces−11%+18%Headers−12%+1%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−18%+28%Centre−28%+66%Right side−7%+42%Open play−24%+63%Counter-attacks−85%+98%Set pieces−2%+13%Headers−6%+41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

0.89xG1.06
1.83xG against1.30
40%Possession46%
9.1Shots11.0
16.1Shots against13.0
2.8Shots on target3.4
0.9Big chances1.0
14.7Touches in the opposition box19.7
300Passes364
59%Pass accuracy68%
4.2Corners5.2
35%Field tilt50%
28.6Final-third entries37.1
7.2Box entries10.5
14.1Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.841.80
Ahead120.921.09
Behind390.942.09

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.001.09
Ahead211.091.67
Behind281.131.34

xG by period

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.272–11
16–300.130.327–12
31–450.150.296–10
46–600.160.294–9
61–750.210.339–13
76–900.150.326–10

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.167–6
16–300.120.206–9
31–450.220.179–5
46–600.200.197–11
61–750.210.256–9
76–900.200.346–14

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hamilton Academical

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTFulton 28Gourlay 9Hamilton 18Stirling 9L. Smith 3Martin 23Odoffin 12Stanger 1Easton 22Want 11McMann 3Hodson 29Callachan 3Odoffin 2Odoffin 17Callachan 12Collar 2S. Martin 16Trafford 9Mimnaugh 6McMann 31Munro 4Easton 2Callachan 14Odoffin 4Templeton 4Moyo 22Anderson 12Thomas 2Ogboe 15Winter 9C. Smith 73-4-1-2 in 9 of 37 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTRogers 26Doyle 10Eastwood 1Millen 17McGowan 15Rossi 4Broadfoot 30Dikamona 9Dicker 1Findlay 21Medley 7Rossi 6Haunstrup 19Waters 17Brophy 1Burke 26McKenzie 5Kiltie 2Power 23McKenzie 2Dabo 1Dicker 22Tshibola 20Mulumbu 4Pinnock 13McKenzie 11Kiltie 9Kabamba 21Lafferty 7Brophy 6Kiltie 11Power 7McKenzie 54-4-2 in 13 of 37 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (13), 4-3-3 (11), 4-4-1-1 (5), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 January 2021Kilmarnock2–0Hamilton AcademicalxG 1.50–0.43
5 December 2020Hamilton Academical1–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.85
19 September 2020Kilmarnock2–1Hamilton AcademicalxG 1.88–1.57

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Hamilton Academical won 1, Kilmarnock won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–4 and xG 1.19–1.41 per game.

Key players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan322,830930.310.09
Templeton7516120.150.23
Ogboe151,287310.230.03
Anderson121,018220.170.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Lafferty7656820.520.05
Burke272,421940.230.21
Whitehall5465200.400.04
Brophy8637200.320.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.