Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–2 Hamilton Academical

Saturday 1 May 2021, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 36 · Half-time 0–1

St. Mirren McGrath 71'

Hamilton Academical Callachan 28', Moyo 57'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Goals12
xG0.681.23
Expected Points0.851.82

St. Mirren 17%Draw 33%Hamilton Academical 50%

Most likely score 0–1, 20%. Final score 1–2, 9%.

Hamilton Academical goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+12%12%3%8%9%3%2%5%3%20%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTErwin on for Quaner and McGrath on for MacPherson, 61'Durmus on for Tait, 62'McAllister on for Dennis, 72'L. Smith on for Munro, 87'C. Smith on for Anderson, 88'Stanger on for Mimnaugh, 89'Thomas on for Callachan, 90+1'McGrath 71'Callachan 28'Moyo 57'Hamilton Academical 1.23St. Mirren 0.6800.511.50153045607590HTErwin on for Quaner and McGrath on for MacPherson, 61'Durmus on for Tait, 62'McAllister on for Dennis, 72'L. Smith on for Munro, 87'C. Smith on for Anderson, 88'Stanger on for Mimnaugh, 89'Thomas on for Callachan, 90+1'McGrath 71'Callachan 28'Moyo 57'1.230.68St. MirrenHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

0.68 −0.41xG1.23 +0.34
0.24 −0.76xG on target1.20 +0.37
11 −0.9Shots13 +4.1
3 −0.5Shots on target3 +0.1
1 −0.1Big chances1 +0.1
58% +11Possession42% +2
411 +51Passes292 −6
65% −2Pass accuracy53% −6
56% +12Field tilt44% +10
31 −3Final-third entries22 −6
6 −2.1Box entries6 −1.1
19.7 +5Passes per defensive action16.9 +3
6 +1.1Corners4 −0.1
12 −1Tackles13 −4
9 −2Interceptions10 −2
15 −5Clearances25 +2
1 −2.0Saves2 −1.4
13 +2Fouls10 −3
1 −0.9Offsides2 +0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Dennis 62', 0.26 xGHenderson 84', 0.09 xGMacPherson 49', 0.06 xGQuaner 19', 0.03 xGDennis 24', 0.03 xGMacPherson 40', 0.03 xGMcCarthy 41', 0.03 xGHenderson 73', 0.03 xGErwin 82', 0.03 xGDurmus 82', 0.03 xGMcGrath 71', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.41 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 1 goal9%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals26%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Moyo 12', 0.08 xGCallachan 12', 0.07 xGCallachan 15', 0.07 xGOdoffin 16', 0.06 xGOdoffin 79', 0.06 xGMoyo 63', 0.05 xGAnderson 65', 0.05 xGCallachan 17', 0.04 xGAnderson 57', 0.04 xGMunro 13', 0.03 xGCallachan 63', 0.02 xGCallachan 28', 0.55 xG, goalMoyo 57', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals84%1.03 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.03 xG, 2 goals10%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

0.24 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.03 9 shots, 2 goals
0.43 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (31%) · St. Mirren 0.07, Hamilton Academical 0.90 xG
Hamilton Academical ahead
63 min (69%) · St. Mirren 0.61, Hamilton Academical 0.33 xG

Line-ups

14515272530142045AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFinlaysonTaitDoyle-HayesErhahonHendersonMacPhersonDennisQuanerYellow cardYellow card62'61'72'61'St. Mirren 3-4-1-2Jim Goodwin226163273421821207GourlayHamiltonMartinMcMannHodsonCallachanOdoffinMimnaughMunroMoyoAndersonGoalYellow cardGoal90+1'89'87'88'Hamilton Academical 3-1-4-2Brian Rice

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 61' McGrath for MacPherson · goal 71'
  • 61' Erwin for Quaner
  • 62' Durmus for Tait
  • 72' McAllister for Dennis

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 87' L. Smith for Munro
  • 88' C. Smith for Anderson
  • 89' Stanger for Mimnaugh
  • 90+1' Thomas for Callachan

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0442
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0200.10710
McCarthyCB900.030.0000.0443
FinlaysonCB900.000.0100.0428
TaitRWB620.000.0100.0333
Doyle-Hayes CM900.000.0100.0362
Erhahon CM900.000.0200.0557
HendersonLWB9010.120.0110.0923
MacPhersonAM610.090.0320.0330
DennisST720.300.010−0.0110
QuanerST610.030.021−0.0111
McGrathMF2910.060.0210.0210
ErwinFW290.030.0610.0530
DurmusFW280.030.0000.0111
McAllisterMF180.000.0000.0000

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GourlayGK900.000.0100.0530
HamiltonCB900.000.0200.0678
MartinCB900.000.0000.0445
McMannCB900.000.0310.02211
HodsonDM9010.000.4920.2523
Callachan RWB9010.760.0200.0242
OdoffinCM900.110.0100.01110
MimnaughCM890.000.0500.0322
MunroLWB870.030.0000.0112
MoyoST9010.240.0730.0516
AndersonST8810.090.0110.0420
L. SmithFW30.000.000––0
C. SmithFW20.000.000––0
StangerDF10.000.0000.0001
ThomasFW00.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

McCarthy and MacPherson: 4 passesErhahon and Dennis: 4 passesTait and Dennis: 4 passesMacPherson and Quaner: 4 passesQuaner and Dennis: 4 passesAlnwick and Finlayson: 5 passesShaughnessy and Henderson: 5 passesHenderson and MacPherson: 5 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erhahon: 5 passesErhahon and MacPherson: 5 passesAlnwick and Shaughnessy: 6 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 6 passesAlnwick and Tait: 6 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesFinlayson and Doyle-Hayes: 6 passesFinlayson and Erhahon: 6 passesDoyle-Hayes and Quaner: 6 passesTait and MacPherson: 6 passesMacPherson and Dennis: 6 passesDoyle-Hayes and Tait: 7 passesMcCarthy and Erhahon: 8 passesHenderson and Erhahon: 8 passesFinlayson and Tait: 9 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 13 passesMcCarthy and Finlayson: 13 passesTait and Quaner: 13 passesAlnwick: 11 completed passesShaughnessy: 16 completed passesMcCarthy: 33 completed passesFinlayson: 24 completed passesHenderson: 13 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 20 completed passesErhahon: 25 completed passesTait: 24 completed passesMacPherson: 17 completed passesQuaner: 13 completed passesDennis: 11 completed passes14515307252144520AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFinlaysonHendersonDoyle-HayesErhahonTaitMacPhersonQuanerDennisStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Martin and Odoffin: 3 passesMcMann and Callachan: 3 passesMimnaugh and Munro: 3 passesGourlay and Hamilton: 4 passesMartin and Mimnaugh: 4 passesMcMann and Odoffin: 4 passesMcMann and Moyo: 4 passesHamilton and Anderson: 4 passesOdoffin and Callachan: 4 passesHodson and Anderson: 4 passesCallachan and Munro: 4 passesCallachan and Moyo: 4 passesMimnaugh and Moyo: 4 passesMunro and Anderson: 4 passesMartin and McMann: 5 passesMcMann and Munro: 5 passesHamilton and Callachan: 5 passesMimnaugh and Anderson: 5 passesHamilton and Hodson: 6 passesCallachan and Anderson: 6 passesGourlay and Moyo: 7 passesHodson and Moyo: 7 passesGourlay and McMann: 8 passesOdoffin and Hodson: 9 passesMcMann and Mimnaugh: 10 passesHodson and Callachan: 16 passesGourlay: 16 completed passesMartin: 13 completed passesMcMann: 29 completed passesHamilton: 16 completed passesOdoffin: 13 completed passesHodson: 27 completed passesCallachan: 20 completed passesMimnaugh: 17 completed passesMunro: 11 completed passesMoyo: 11 completed passesAnderson: 9 completed passes221636227341821207GourlayMartinMcMannHamiltonOdoffinHodsonCallachanMimnaughMunroMoyoAndersonStarters until 87' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McCarthyShaughnessy10
McCarthyFinlayson9
TaitQuaner8
ErhahonHenderson8
ShaughnessyAlnwick7

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
HodsonCallachan8
CallachanHodson8
McMannMimnaugh6
HodsonMoyo6
GourlayMoyo6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−3.514+0.58+1.710+4.57−0.811+3.19+1.55−3.35−1.99+4.24−2.22−2.32−3.43−2.94−0.22−1.51−1.63−0.51−3.55+2.92+0.62+0.80−1.72−0.210.00−0.21+0.20−0.41+0.30−5.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Hamilton Academical

3−1.43−3.69+1.610+4.28+0.55−2.78+0.96−2.113+5.510+5.52−3.14+0.150.08+1.17+2.31−2.52−0.95+1.82−2.51−1.91−0.72+0.74+2.61−1.50−0.80−0.30−0.50−0.20−0.98−8.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.040.010.020.030.030.030.020.030.020.020.010.010.01−0.02−0.030.010.140.11LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.010.010.030.010.030.010.010.020.010.01−0.010.050.060.01−0.010.010.010.010.02−0.010.080.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackSt. Mirren0.97 → 0.95Hamilton Acad…0.86 → 0.89Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16 → 1.18Hamilton Acad…1.52 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hamilton Academical
11th21%34%+13
Bottom75%54%−21
Ross County
11th60%43%−17
Bottom23%41%+18
Kilmarnock
11th19%23%+4
Bottom2%5%+3

From the forecast before the match (1 May 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.400.84
Win49%22%
Expected Points1.770.94
Clean sheet43%25%

St. Mirren 49%Draw 29%Hamilton Academical 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Hamilton Academical goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%1%9%4%1%5%4%2%2%1%11%14%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 May 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHamilton Academical win
Hamilton Academical
11th21%15%20%34%
Bottom75%84%77%54%
Ross County
11th60%66%61%43%
Bottom23%16%22%41%
Kilmarnock
11th19%18%19%23%
Bottom2%1%1%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W3–121 AprRoss County (A)xG 2.23–0.65
  2. L0–110 AprMotherwell (A)xG 1.45–1.95
  3. D1–120 MarHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.81–0.79
  4. L0–36 MarRangers (A)xG 0.21–1.50
  5. W1–027 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.41–1.91
  6. D0–024 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.30–1.39

Hamilton Academical

  1. L0–121 AprMotherwell (H)xG 0.48–0.57
  2. L0–110 AprDundee United (H)xG 2.76–1.32
  3. D1–120 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.79–1.81
  4. L1–213 MarLivingston (A)xG 0.19–1.26
  5. D0–06 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.51–1.97
  6. D1–13 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.66–1.04

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Position7th12th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠10–⁠146–⁠9–⁠20
Points43 (1.23 per game)27 (0.77 per game)
Expected Points per game1.240.88
Goals33–⁠4031–⁠62
xG per game1.09–⁠1.250.89–⁠1.90
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.08–⁠1.210.67, 0.77–⁠1.78
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 1.10–⁠1.280.88, 1.01–⁠2.03
ManagerJim Goodwin (35)Brian Rice (35)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.15AttackSt. Mirren0.97, 9thHamilton Acad…0.86, 12thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16, 6thHamilton Acad…1.52, 11th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Mirren attack: 0.97Hamilton Academical attack: 0.860.970.86Hamilton AcademicalSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Mirren defence: 1.16Hamilton Academical defence: 1.521.521.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%+10%−42%+72%
Counter-attacks−3%−65%−55%+91%
Set pieces−6%−8%−11%+13%
Penalties+32%−34%−1%−1%
Headers−26%+8%−12%+49%
Left side−9%−3%−43%+47%
Centre−20%+1%−30%+74%
Right side−28%+10%−31%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−9%+31%Centre−20%+74%Right side−28%+47%Open play−26%+72%Counter-attacks−3%+91%Set pieces−6%+13%Headers−26%+49%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−43%+10%Centre−30%+1%Right side−31%−3%Open play−42%+10%Counter-attacks−55%−65%Set pieces−11%−8%Headers−12%+8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

1.09xG0.89
1.25xG against1.90
47%Possession40%
11.9Shots8.9
12.2Shots against16.5
3.5Shots on target2.9
1.1Big chances0.9
17.8Touches in the opposition box14.5
360Passes298
67%Pass accuracy59%
4.9Corners4.1
44%Field tilt34%
33.7Final-third entries28.5
8.1Box entries7.1
14.6Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.101.16
Ahead181.421.24
Behind280.881.38

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.801.91
Ahead111.001.12
Behind400.942.10

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.143–4
16–300.140.214–11
31–450.270.158–6
46–600.110.254–6
61–750.120.254–8
76–900.300.2510–5

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.292–11
16–300.110.335–11
31–450.150.316–10
46–600.160.313–9
61–750.220.339–11
76–900.150.336–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 31Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 26Tait 5Connolly 3McCarthy 34Shaughnessy 32Foley 3Tait 1Tait 20Durmus 8Obika 3Connolly 9McAllister 8McGrath 4McGrath 22MacPhers… 9MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 18Doyle-HayesFraser 3Dennis 2Erhahon 25Foley 7McAllister 2Durmus 12Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 12Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (5), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTFulton 28Gourlay 7Hamilton 16Stirling 9L. Smith 3Martin 21Odoffin 12Stanger 1Easton 22Want 11McMann 1Hodson 29Odoffin 2Hamilton 2Odoffin 15Callachan 12Collar 2S. Martin 16Trafford 9Stirling 6McMann 31Munro 3Easton 1Callachan 14Odoffin 4Templeton 4Moyo 20Anderson 10Thomas 2Ogboe 15Winter 9Smith 73-4-1-2 in 9 of 35 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (5), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 March 2021Hamilton Academical1–1St. MirrenxG 0.79–1.81
17 February 2021St. Mirren1–1Hamilton AcademicalxG 0.74–1.52
15 August 2020Hamilton Academical0–1St. MirrenxG 0.83–1.97

3 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Hamilton Academical won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 3–2 and xG 1.51–1.05 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dennis5464310.490.10
McGrath322,631810.300.14
Morias7664000.250.09
Obika201,961510.290.05

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan302,650830.300.09
Templeton7516120.150.23
Ogboe151,287310.230.03
Anderson10851210.180.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.