Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 2–1 Hamilton Academical

Saturday 13 March 2021, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 25 · Half-time 2–1

Livingston Emmanuel-Thomas 16', Pittman 36'

Hamilton Academical Smith 30'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonHamilton Academical
Goals21
xG1.260.19
Expected Points2.530.27

Livingston 78%Draw 20%Hamilton Academical 2%

Most likely score 1–0, 48%. Final score 2–1, 4%.

Hamilton Academical goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%2%11%20%4%4%48%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMullin on for Forrest, 78'Serrano on for Sibbald, 84'Poplatnik on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 90'Hughes on for Hodson, 55'Moyo on for Smith, 89'Emmanuel-Thomas 16'Pittman 36'Smith 30'Livingston 1.26Hamilton Academical 0.1900.511.50153045607590HTMullin on for Forrest, 78'Serrano on for Sibbald, 84'Poplatnik on for Emmanuel-Thomas, 90'Hughes on for Hodson, 55'Moyo on for Smith, 89'Emmanuel-Thomas 16'Pittman 36'Smith 30'1.260.19LivingstonHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonHamilton Academical

1.26 +0.12xG0.19 −0.68
1.75 +0.69xG on target0.35 −0.51
9 −1.0Shots4 −4.7
3 0.0Shots on target1 −1.9
1 −0.5Big chances0 −0.9
21 +4Touches in the opposition box8 −6
49% +1Possession51% +12
326 −13Passes338 +48
56% −4Pass accuracy56% −3
57% +7Field tilt43% +10
30 −1Final-third entries21 −7
11 +3.0Box entries7 +0.2
11.0 −1Passes per defensive action10.0 −4
3 −1.8Corners3 −1.0
19 +3Tackles19 +2
8 −4Interceptions5 −7
15 −3Clearances32 +8
0 −2.1Saves1 −2.5
14 0Fouls18 +5
2 +0.1Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Holt 36', 0.06 xGPittman 52', 0.06 xGEmmanuel-Thomas 76', 0.06 xGDevlin 5', 0.05 xGPittman 32', 0.04 xGSibbald 31', 0.03 xGMullin 87', 0.03 xGPittman 36', 0.84 xG, goalEmmanuel-Thomas 16', 0.10 xG, goal67%0.84 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.84 xG, 1 goal17%0.22 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals4%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Callachan 79', 0.10 xGAnderson 45', 0.03 xGA. Martin 68', 0.03 xGSmith 30', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.10 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals32%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal16%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonHamilton Academical

1.20 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.19 4 shots, 1 goal
0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (24%) · Livingston 1.12, Hamilton Academical 0.00 xG
Livingston ahead
71 min (76%) · Livingston 0.14, Hamilton Academical 0.19 xG

Line-ups

1252723186108119McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieLongridgeHoltBartleySibbaldPittmanForrestEmmanuel-ThomasYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal84'78'90'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale23616527234821327FultonHamiltonA. MartinEastonHodsonOdoffinCallachanS. MartinMunroSmithAndersonYellow cardGoalYellow card55'89'Hamilton Academical 3-5-2Brian Rice

Livingston substitutes

  • 78' Mullin for Forrest
  • 84' Serrano for Sibbald
  • 90' Poplatnik for Emmanuel-Thomas

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 55' Hughes for Hodson
  • 89' Moyo for Smith

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0100.0772
Devlin RB9010.050.2410.2673
FitzwaterCB900.000.0500.0835
GuthrieCB900.000.0500.0605
LongridgeLB900.000.0100.0769
Holt DM900.060.0520.0532
BartleyDM900.000.0100.0136
SibbaldRW840.030.1510.1026
PittmanAM9010.940.010−0.0461
ForrestLW780.000.0510.0844
Emmanuel-ThomasST9010.160.061−0.0640
MullinMF120.030.0000.0310
SerranoFW60.000.0100.0200
PoplatnikFW00.000.000−0.0100

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0000.0112
HamiltonCB900.000.0300.0768
A. Martin CB900.030.0000.02411
EastonCB9010.000.0310.08610
HodsonRWB550.000.0100.0121
OdoffinCM900.000.0100.0226
CallachanCM900.100.0300.0132
S. MartinCM900.000.1210.0726
MunroLWB900.000.0200.09106
Smith ST8910.030.010−0.0111
AndersonST900.030.0100.0112
HughesMF350.000.0000.0004
MoyoFW10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Fitzwater and Guthrie: 4 passesFitzwater and Holt: 4 passesLongridge and Holt: 4 passesLongridge and Pittman: 4 passesLongridge and Forrest: 4 passesSibbald and Emmanuel-Thomas: 4 passesDevlin and Bartley: 5 passesDevlin and Pittman: 5 passesBartley and Sibbald: 5 passesHolt and Pittman: 5 passesSibbald and Forrest: 5 passesForrest and Emmanuel-Thomas: 5 passesMcCrorie and Emmanuel-Thomas: 6 passesHolt and Sibbald: 6 passesHolt and Emmanuel-Thomas: 6 passesDevlin and Emmanuel-Thomas: 7 passesHolt and Forrest: 7 passesSibbald and Pittman: 8 passesPittman and Emmanuel-Thomas: 8 passesDevlin and Holt: 10 passesDevlin and Sibbald: 11 passesLongridge and Emmanuel-Thomas: 14 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesDevlin: 27 completed passesFitzwater: 11 completed passesGuthrie: 11 completed passesLongridge: 23 completed passesBartley: 12 completed passesHolt: 22 completed passesSibbald: 22 completed passesPittman: 18 completed passesForrest: 10 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 21 completed passes1252723618108119McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieLongridgeBartleyHoltSibbaldPittmanForrestEmmanuel-ThomasStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Fulton and Hamilton: 3 passesA. Martin and Hamilton: 3 passesHamilton and Callachan: 3 passesMunro and Smith: 3 passesOdoffin and Anderson: 3 passesOdoffin and Smith: 3 passesMunro and Anderson: 4 passesS. Martin and Callachan: 4 passesHamilton and S. Martin: 5 passesMunro and Callachan: 5 passesHamilton and Hodson: 6 passesHodson and S. Martin: 6 passesHodson and Smith: 6 passesEaston and Munro: 8 passesMunro and S. Martin: 8 passesHodson and Callachan: 10 passesFulton: 6 completed passesA. Martin: 8 completed passesHamilton: 15 completed passesEaston: 14 completed passesHodson: 14 completed passesMunro: 15 completed passesOdoffin: 9 completed passesS. Martin: 15 completed passesCallachan: 14 completed passesAnderson: 5 completed passesSmith: 5 completed passes23166527212834732FultonA. MartinHamiltonEastonHodsonMunroOdoffinS. MartinCallachanAndersonSmithStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
LongridgeEmmanuel-Thomas10
DevlinSibbald8
McCrorieEmmanuel-Thomas8
HoltDevlin6
DevlinEmmanuel-Thomas6

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
EastonMunro9
S. MartinMunro7
MunroCallachan6
HamiltonS. Martin6
HodsonCallachan5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

6+0.73−1.88−2.33−2.57+2.08−0.611+4.27+0.310+2.69−0.25−0.77+1.52−2.211+5.56−0.43−1.14−0.42−0.92−1.92−2.55+1.83+0.61−0.10−1.55+2.23+1.60−0.52+1.30−0.62+0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Hamilton Academical

6+1.56−0.99−8.313+5.918+12.411+3.57−0.65−2.37−1.416+9.25+0.29+4.22−1.94−1.111+3.91−3.95+1.42−1.04+0.96+1.64+1.13+1.30−1.52+0.61−1.30−0.71+0.71+0.50−0.30−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.020.030.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.030.010.050.040.02−0.010.020.07−0.010.01−0.060.050.040.090.100.11LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.010.030.030.010.030.030.010.010.030.010.020.03−0.010.010.040.03−0.04−0.010.020.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackLivingston1.03 → 1.03Hamilton Acad…0.87 → 0.86Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.14 → 1.12Hamilton Acad…1.56 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six99%>99%+1
Hamilton Academical
11th34%32%−2
Bottom44%52%+8
Kilmarnock
11th36%39%+3
Bottom41%36%−5
Ross County
11th28%27%−1
Bottom15%12%−3

From the forecast before the match (13 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.500.88
Win51%22%
Expected Points1.810.92
Clean sheet41%22%

Livingston 51%Draw 27%Hamilton Academical 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Hamilton Academical goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%5%2%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%10%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawHamilton Academical win
Livingston
Top six99%>99%>99%96%
Hamilton Academical
11th34%32%34%37%
Bottom44%52%43%25%
Kilmarnock
11th36%39%35%29%
Bottom41%36%42%53%
Ross County
11th28%27%28%31%
Bottom15%12%15%21%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L1–36 MarMotherwell (A)xG 1.14–1.80
  2. L0–13 MarRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.73
  3. D1–120 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.29–0.71
  4. L0–313 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.93–1.93
  5. L1–26 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.78
  6. W2–02 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.56–0.36

Hamilton Academical

  1. D0–06 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.51–1.97
  2. D1–13 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.66–1.04
  3. L0–220 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.40–2.49
  4. D1–117 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.52–0.74
  5. W4–113 FebMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–1.32
  6. D1–17 FebRangers (H)xG 1.37–0.74

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonHamilton Academical
Position5th11th
Played3131
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠7–⁠136–⁠8–⁠17
Points40 (1.29 per game)26 (0.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.310.86
Goals37–⁠3929–⁠57
xG per game1.14–⁠1.180.87–⁠1.99
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.03–⁠1.410.73, 0.65–⁠1.89
Away: points, xG per game1.38, 1.23–⁠0.960.94, 1.06–⁠2.08
ManagerDavid Martindale (16)Brian Rice (31)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.13AttackLivingston1.03, 7thHamilton Acad…0.87, 12thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.14, 6thHamilton Acad…1.56, 12th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarLivingston attack: 1.03Hamilton Academical attack: 0.871.030.87Hamilton AcademicalLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarLivingston defence: 1.14Hamilton Academical defence: 1.561.561.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−17%−45%+82%
Counter-attacks−92%−24%−56%+79%
Set pieces+18%+13%−15%+22%
Penalties−43%+13%+13%−6%
Headers+20%+8%−20%+64%
Left side−18%−35%−43%+56%
Centre+8%−1%−32%+86%
Right side−19%+5%−39%+36%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−18%+36%Centre+8%+86%Right side−19%+56%Open play−11%+82%Counter-attacks−92%+79%Set pieces+18%+22%Headers+20%+64%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdLivingston concededLeft side−43%+5%Centre−32%−1%Right side−39%−35%Open play−45%−17%Counter-attacks−56%−24%Set pieces−15%+13%Headers−20%+8%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonHamilton Academical

1.14xG0.87
1.18xG against1.99
48%Possession39%
10.0Shots8.7
9.8Shots against17.0
3.0Shots on target2.9
1.5Big chances0.9
17.2Touches in the opposition box14.0
339Passes290
60%Pass accuracy59%
4.8Corners4.0
50%Field tilt34%
31.4Final-third entries28.0
8.0Box entries6.8
12.2Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.931.14
Ahead161.200.94
Behind261.481.39

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.811.85
Ahead121.001.12
Behind370.882.43

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.118–3
16–300.220.213–11
31–450.110.272–10
46–600.210.2010–10
61–750.200.135–1
76–900.250.259–4

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.292–10
16–300.120.364–10
31–450.120.286–7
46–600.150.343–9
61–750.240.379–11
76–900.160.355–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 18McCrorie 13Devlin 28Ambrose 1Robinson 1Ambrose 12Fitzwater 10Guthrie 28Brown 8Taylor-Sinclair 4Serrano 17Brown 5Lawson 2Bartley 23Lawson 4Pittman 4Holt 17Sibbald 10Forrest 2Mullin 12Robinson 6Fitzwater 4Pittman 20Bartley 4Sibbald 2Forrest 16Sibbald 8Robinson 2Emmanuel-Thomas 6Robinson 5Poplatnik 34-2-3-1 in 17 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (17), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 26Gourlay 5Hodson 20Hamilton 5Odoffin 3A. Martin 17Odoffin 11Stirling 3Easton 16Want 10McMann 1McMann 22Odoffin 3S. Martin 2Hamilton 7Hodson 6Callachan 6Odoffin 12Callachan 11Collar 2S. Martin 14Trafford 9Stirling 6Callachan 8McMann 7Templeton 4Moyo 20Anderson 6Templeton 2Ogboe 15Winter 8Stirling 34-4-2 in 9 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-5-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2020Hamilton Academical0–2LivingstonxG 0.05–2.20
12 September 2020Livingston1–2Hamilton AcademicalxG 2.43–0.78

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Hamilton Academical won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 3–2 and xG 2.32–0.42 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest181,548410.190.21
Emmanuel-Thomas7841200.280.05
Robinson161,473410.200.08
Mullin141,178230.080.19

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan262,312830.290.10
Templeton7516120.150.23
Anderson6491210.240.03
Ogboe151,287310.230.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.