Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hamilton Academical 1–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 5 December 2020, 15:00 · Fountain of Youth Stadium · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0

Hamilton Academical Callachan 73' (pen)

Kilmarnock Dikamona sent off 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Goals10
xG1.560.85
Non-penalty xG0.770.85
Expected Points1.960.76

Hamilton Academical 56%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 16%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 1–0, 18%.

Kilmarnock goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+4%4%1%7%2%12%5%1%5%4%2%1%1%18%18%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTDikamona (Kilmarnock), red card 29'Thomas on for Hodson, 54'Owolabi on for Smith, 62'Whitehall on for Kiltie, 84'Callachan 73' (pen)Hamilton Academical 1.56Kilmarnock 0.8500.511.520153045607590HTDikamona (Kilmarnock), red card 29'Thomas on for Hodson, 54'Owolabi on for Smith, 62'Whitehall on for Kiltie, 84'Callachan 73' (pen)1.560.85Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

1.56 +0.57xG0.85 −0.17
0.77Non-penalty xG0.85
1.22 +0.13xG on target0.13 −1.02
16 +7.4Shots17 +7.4
6 +3.1Shots on target2 −1.4
1 0.0Big chances0 −1.1
22 +11Touches in the opposition box28 +13
50% +10Possession50% +6
383 +82Passes384 +34
72% +12Pass accuracy71% +1
42% +7Field tilt58% +14
40 +10Final-third entries48 +12
14 +7.4Box entries11 +2.1
8.9 −6Passes per defensive action19.0 +4
3 −1.0Corners2 −2.4
19 +1Tackles6 −7
8 −3Interceptions13 +3
24 +1Clearances6 −13
2 −2.1Saves5 +3.0
22 +10Fouls8 −4
2 +0.6Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hamilton Academical

Smith 1', 0.08 xGCallachan 75', 0.07 xGOwolabi 85', 0.07 xGMoyo 49', 0.06 xGSmith 49', 0.06 xGMoyo 4', 0.05 xGMoyo 45', 0.05 xGSmith 48', 0.05 xGMoyo 56', 0.05 xGS. Martin 68', 0.05 xGCallachan 72', 0.05 xGMcMann 75', 0.05 xGMcMann 75', 0.04 xGThomas 55', 0.03 xGThomas 63', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals66%0.51 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.51 xG, 0 goals27%0.21 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Brophy 62', 0.09 xGKabamba 34', 0.07 xGBrophy 50', 0.07 xGBrophy 52', 0.07 xGKabamba 71', 0.07 xGBrophy 23', 0.06 xGBrophy 15', 0.05 xGBrophy 37', 0.05 xGKabamba 78', 0.05 xGBroadfoot 79', 0.05 xGKabamba 1', 0.04 xGKabamba 12', 0.04 xGKabamba 31', 0.04 xGBrophy 88', 0.04 xGBrophy 47', 0.03 xGBrophy 78', 0.03 xGPower 86', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals70%0.60 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals14%0.12 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals13%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

0.67 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.66 13 shots, 0 goals
0.10 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.19 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
73 min (81%) · Hamilton Academical 1.32, Kilmarnock 0.67 xG
Hamilton Academical ahead
17 min (19%) · Hamilton Academical 0.23, Kilmarnock 0.19 xG

Line-ups

23274165342832032FultonHodsonStirlingA. MartinEastonCallachanOdoffinS. MartinMcMannMoyoSmithYellow cardYellow cardGoal54'62'Hamilton Academical 4-4-2Brian Rice2325432761991110RogersMcGowanBroadfootDikamonaHaunstrupTshibolaPowerPinnockBrophyKabambaKiltieYellow cardSent offYellow card84'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Alex Dyer

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 54' Thomas for Hodson
  • 62' Owolabi for Smith · yellow card 89'

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 84' Whitehall for Kiltie

Players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Fulton GK900.000.0700.1430
HodsonRB540.000.0100.0471
Stirling CB900.000.0100.10109
A. MartinCB900.000.0000.0528
EastonLB900.000.0200.10126
CallachanRM9010.900.0210.0347
OdoffinCM900.000.1010.06314
S. MartinCM900.050.0410.1142
McMannLM900.090.1340.2454
MoyoST900.200.071−0.0132
SmithST620.190.000−0.0202
ThomasFW360.050.0620.1041
Owolabi FW280.070.0100.0211

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0100.0761
McGowan RB900.000.0510.1382
BroadfootCB900.050.1230.2277
Dikamona CB290.000.0000.0213
Haunstrup LB900.000.1010.1895
TshibolaCM900.000.1710.1930
PowerCM900.030.0940.06104
PinnockCM900.000.1640.2893
BrophyRW900.480.0900.1320
KabambaST900.300.052−0.0422
KiltieLW840.000.0300.0443
WhitehallFW60.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hamilton Academical

A. Martin and Hodson: 3 passesA. Martin and Smith: 3 passesStirling and Callachan: 3 passesEaston and S. Martin: 3 passesHodson and Odoffin: 3 passesHodson and Moyo: 3 passesOdoffin and Callachan: 3 passesS. Martin and Callachan: 3 passesS. Martin and Smith: 3 passesFulton and Moyo: 4 passesA. Martin and Odoffin: 4 passesMcMann and Moyo: 4 passesCallachan and Moyo: 4 passesStirling and Odoffin: 5 passesStirling and S. Martin: 5 passesS. Martin and Moyo: 5 passesFulton and A. Martin: 7 passesMcMann and S. Martin: 9 passesHodson and Callachan: 10 passesStirling and Hodson: 11 passesEaston and McMann: 14 passesA. Martin and Stirling: 16 passesA. Martin and Easton: 21 passesFulton: 12 completed passesA. Martin: 33 completed passesStirling: 22 completed passesEaston: 26 completed passesHodson: 18 completed passesMcMann: 17 completed passesOdoffin: 9 completed passesS. Martin: 18 completed passesCallachan: 14 completed passesSmith: 3 completed passesMoyo: 6 completed passes23164527328343220FultonA. MartinStirlingEastonHodsonMcMannOdoffinS. MartinCallachanSmithMoyoStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

McGowan and Broadfoot: 3 passesMcGowan and Kiltie: 3 passesDikamona and Power: 3 passesHaunstrup and Tshibola: 3 passesHaunstrup and Kabamba: 3 passesPower and Pinnock: 3 passesPower and Brophy: 3 passesPower and Kiltie: 3 passesTshibola and Brophy: 3 passesRogers and Dikamona: 4 passesMcGowan and Power: 4 passesMcGowan and Tshibola: 4 passesBroadfoot and Power: 4 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 4 passesDikamona and Broadfoot: 5 passesHaunstrup and Power: 6 passesDikamona and Haunstrup: 7 passesDikamona and Tshibola: 8 passesBroadfoot and Tshibola: 8 passesHaunstrup and Pinnock: 10 passesPower and Tshibola: 11 passesRogers: 6 completed passesMcGowan: 9 completed passesDikamona: 17 completed passesBroadfoot: 12 completed passesHaunstrup: 19 completed passesPower: 21 completed passesPinnock: 9 completed passesTshibola: 21 completed passesBrophy: 5 completed passesKabamba: 3 completed passesKiltie: 5 completed passes2324536192791110RogersMcGowanDikamonaBroadfootHaunstrupPowerPinnockTshibolaBrophyKabambaKiltieStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
A. MartinStirling17
A. MartinEaston16
EastonA. Martin16
EastonMcMann15
McMannEaston13

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
HaunstrupPinnock13
BroadfootTshibola9
PinnockKabamba9
PinnockHaunstrup9
PowerMcGowan9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hamilton Academical

5−0.89+1.114−1.88+3.111+2.95−3.18+1.08−1.58+1.16+1.16+1.43+0.74−0.84−3.10−4.99+5.10−3.33−0.76+1.83+0.11−0.80−2.11−0.21−0.93+2.70−0.42+1.61+0.51+0.41−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Kilmarnock

30.02−3.812−1.58+1.910+3.08+1.45−4.34−4.54+0.72−3.13−1.01−3.75+0.17+4.21−2.40−2.61−1.64+0.40−1.90−1.90−1.50−1.01−1.12+1.40−0.21−0.10−0.41+0.42−6.12−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hamilton Academical

0.010.120.040.020.040.020.020.030.04−0.010.050.030.060.010.020.010.050.08−0.010.030.13−0.080.28LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.070.030.030.020.020.090.010.030.050.020.060.050.020.020.080.09−0.01−0.10−0.06−0.010.070.100.160.43LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHamilton Acad…1.00 → 1.02Kilmarnock1.06 → 1.01Defence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.96 → 1.87Kilmarnock1.31 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%2%+1
11th21%23%+2
Bottom59%48%−11
Kilmarnock
Top six50%37%−13
11th3%5%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
Ross County
Top six2%3%+1
11th32%28%−4
Bottom21%26%+5
St. Johnstone
Top six45%48%+3
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (5 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Expected goals1.201.60
Win28%46%
Expected Points1.101.64
Clean sheet20%30%

Hamilton Academical 28%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHamilton Academical winDrawKilmarnock win
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%2%1%<1%
11th21%23%22%19%
Bottom59%48%58%67%
Kilmarnock
Top six50%37%46%60%
11th3%5%4%2%
Bottom1%2%1%<1%
Ross County
Top six2%3%3%2%
11th32%28%32%34%
Bottom21%26%21%18%
St. Johnstone
Top six45%48%45%42%
11th3%3%2%3%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hamilton Academical

  1. D1–125 NovAberdeen (H)xG 0.49–0.52
  2. L1–221 NovDundee United (A)xG 1.44–0.73
  3. L0–88 NovRangers (A)xG 0.00–4.94
  4. L2–420 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.65–1.66
  5. L3–517 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.73–3.81
  6. L2–32 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.80–2.97

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–121 NovRoss County (H)xG 2.12–1.87
  2. L0–16 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.46–0.61
  3. L0–11 NovRangers (H)xG 0.50–2.80
  4. L0–124 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.50
  5. W3–117 OctLivingston (A)xG 2.27–1.53
  6. W1–026 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.65–0.49

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
Position12th6th
Played1414
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠105–⁠2–⁠7
Points8 (0.57 per game)17 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game0.811.04
Goals15–⁠3618–⁠16
xG per game0.99–⁠2.401.02–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game0.33, 0.65–⁠2.291.43, 1.22–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 1.24–⁠2.481.00, 0.82–⁠1.50
ManagerBrian Rice (14)Alex Dyer (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHamilton Acad…1.00, 9thKilmarnock1.06, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.96, 12thKilmarnock1.31, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHamilton Academical attack: 1.00Kilmarnock attack: 1.061.061.00KilmarnockHamilton AcademicalDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHamilton Academical defence: 1.96Kilmarnock defence: 1.311.961.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−59%+112%−33%+15%
Counter-attacks−100%+279%−87%−75%
Set pieces+29%+52%−8%+37%
Penalties+28%−68%−4%−4%
Headers+6%+57%−17%+2%
Left side−23%+132%−10%+27%
Centre−22%+114%−38%+20%
Right side−67%+44%−26%+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−23%+4%Centre−22%+20%Right side−67%+27%Open play−59%+15%Counter-attacks−100%−75%Set pieces+29%+37%Headers+6%+2%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−10%+44%Centre−38%+114%Right side−26%+132%Open play−33%+112%Counter-attacks−87%+279%Set pieces−8%+52%Headers−17%+57%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnock

0.99xG1.02
2.40xG against1.55
40%Possession44%
8.6Shots9.6
17.3Shots against15.1
2.9Shots on target3.4
1.0Big chances1.1
11.3Touches in the opposition box14.7
302Passes350
60%Pass accuracy70%
4.0Corners4.4
35%Field tilt43%
30.5Final-third entries36.3
6.6Box entries8.9
14.6Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.832.22
Ahead10.002.02
Behind531.112.53

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.141.42
Ahead220.882.12
Behind300.971.31

xG by period

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.410–7
16–300.120.471–10
31–450.110.284–5
46–600.170.342–4
61–750.280.484–5
76–900.250.424–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.212–4
16–300.210.264–4
31–450.190.193–2
46–600.160.193–1
61–750.200.293–1
76–900.160.413–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 13Gourlay 1Hodson 7Odoffin 2Stirling 2Odoffin 10A. Martin 2Hamilton 1Want 10Easton 3McMann 1McMann 10Munro 2Odoffin 1Callachan 3L. Smith 3Hodson 2Callachan 7Collar 2Hodson 1S. Martin 10Mimnaugh 4Hughes 1Templeton 4Smith 2McMann 2Ogboe 9Templeton 2Callachan 1Moyo 8Winter 5Smith 14-4-2 in 8 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 13Eastwood 1Millen 9Rossi 3McGowan 2Broadfoot 14Findlay 12Dikamona 2Waters 13Haunstrup 1Power 10Kabamba 4McKenzie 1Dicker 13Kiltie 1Tshibola 13Burke 13McKenzie 1Kabamba 9Brophy 5Kiltie 7Pinnock 3McKenzie 24-3-3 in 8 of 14 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 September 2020Kilmarnock2–1Hamilton AcademicalxG 1.88–1.57

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hamilton Academical won 0, Kilmarnock won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.57–1.88 per game.

Key players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan121,062310.360.05
Templeton7516120.150.23
Odoffin141,240300.220.05
Ogboe9866210.190.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke131,078520.240.26
Kabamba131,146500.270.02
Kiltie8677220.200.08
Tshibola141,208210.110.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.