Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hamilton Academical 1–1 St. Mirren

Saturday 20 March 2021, 15:00 · Fountain of Youth Stadium · Round 32 · Half-time 0–1

Hamilton Academical Munro 89'

St. Mirren McGrath 33' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren
Goals11
xG0.791.81
Non-penalty xG0.791.02
Expected Points0.572.17

Hamilton Academical 11%Draw 25%St. Mirren 64%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–1, 16%.

St. Mirren goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+3%7%2%3%7%2%1%5%5%2%14%14%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMoyo on for Stirling, 46'Hughes on for A. Martin, 64'Munro on for Smith, 80'Erhahon on for McAllister and Connolly on for Erwin, 56'Flynn on for Obika, 88'Munro 89'McGrath 33' (pen)St. Mirren 1.81Hamilton Academical 0.7900.511.520153045607590HTMoyo on for Stirling, 46'Hughes on for A. Martin, 64'Munro on for Smith, 80'Erhahon on for McAllister and Connolly on for Erwin, 56'Flynn on for Obika, 88'Munro 89'McGrath 33' (pen)1.810.79Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren

0.79 −0.06xG1.81 +0.79
0.79Non-penalty xG1.02
0.82 −0.02xG on target1.73 +0.83
8 −0.5Shots17 +5.5
2 −0.8Shots on target4 +0.7
1 +0.1Big chances1 0.0
14 0Touches in the opposition box26 +9
54% +15Possession46% −1
365 +73Passes319 −38
63% +4Pass accuracy59% −8
52% +18Field tilt48% +6
37 +9Final-third entries27 −6
11 +4.2Box entries12 +4.2
11.3 −3Passes per defensive action14.2 0
5 +1.1Corners8 +3.1
12 −5Tackles16 +3
9 −3Interceptions11 0
16 −8Clearances15 −5
3 −0.5Saves1 −2.2
15 +2Fouls11 −1
3 +1.4Offsides4 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hamilton Academical

Callachan 49', 0.09 xGSmith 13', 0.07 xGCallachan 35', 0.06 xGAnderson 67', 0.06 xGOdoffin 16', 0.04 xGOdoffin 46', 0.04 xGAnderson 13', 0.03 xGMunro 89', 0.39 xG, goal12%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals77%0.60 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.60 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals12%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Obika 54', 0.16 xGErwin 27', 0.11 xGShaughnessy 19', 0.09 xGErwin 47', 0.09 xGErwin 11', 0.07 xGTait 24', 0.07 xGMcGrath 73', 0.06 xGMcGrath 90', 0.06 xGDurmus 80', 0.05 xGTait 11', 0.04 xGObika 29', 0.04 xGFraser 39', 0.04 xGFraser 29', 0.03 xGDoyle-Hayes 40', 0.03 xGObika 62', 0.03 xGObika 73', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.63 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals29%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren

0.23 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.52 9 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 2 shots, 0 goals
0.56 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.28 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
34 min (38%) · Hamilton Academical 0.14, St. Mirren 1.31 xG
St. Mirren ahead
56 min (62%) · Hamilton Academical 0.65, St. Mirren 0.50 xG

Line-ups

2341652728334327FultonStirlingA. MartinEastonHodsonOdoffinS. MartinMcMannCallachanSmithAnderson46'64'80'Hamilton Academical 3-4-1-2Brian Rice1224527171011239AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitDoyle-HayesMcGrathMcAllisterDurmusErwinObikaYellow cardGoal56'56'88'St. Mirren 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 46' Moyo for Stirling
  • 64' Hughes for A. Martin
  • 80' Munro for Smith · goal 89'

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 56' Connolly for Erwin
  • 56' Erhahon for McAllister
  • 88' Flynn for Obika

Players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0100.0211
StirlingCB460.000.0000.0235
A. MartinCB640.000.0000.0437
EastonCB900.000.0100.1086
HodsonRWB900.000.1400.2151
OdoffinCM900.080.0100.0147
S. MartinCM900.000.0500.11101
McMannLWB9010.000.5730.2476
CallachanAM900.150.020−0.0544
SmithST800.070.0200.0101
AndersonST900.100.0820.0321
MoyoFW440.000.0910.1321
HughesMF260.000.020−0.0111
MunroMF1010.390.000−0.0600

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0890
FraserCB900.080.0810.14104
ShaughnessyCB900.090.0100.0026
McCarthy CB900.000.0000.1213
TaitRWB900.110.2220.3515
Doyle-HayesCM900.030.0420.0774
McGrathCM9010.910.1830.2074
McAllisterCM560.000.1200.0823
DurmusLWB900.050.2620.1337
ErwinST560.270.051−0.0700
ObikaST880.270.0300.0621
ConnollyMF340.000.0100.0001
ErhahonMF340.000.0500.0536
FlynnMF20.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hamilton Academical

A. Martin and Stirling: 3 passesEaston and Callachan: 3 passesHodson and Odoffin: 3 passesHodson and Anderson: 3 passesOdoffin and Callachan: 3 passesOdoffin and Anderson: 3 passesS. Martin and Callachan: 3 passesS. Martin and Anderson: 3 passesS. Martin and Smith: 3 passesMcMann and Smith: 3 passesA. Martin and Odoffin: 4 passesStirling and Hodson: 4 passesStirling and Odoffin: 4 passesCallachan and Anderson: 4 passesEaston and McMann: 5 passesHodson and Callachan: 6 passesS. Martin and McMann: 7 passesFulton: 4 completed passesA. Martin: 7 completed passesStirling: 10 completed passesEaston: 9 completed passesHodson: 10 completed passesOdoffin: 8 completed passesS. Martin: 11 completed passesMcMann: 11 completed passesCallachan: 9 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesSmith: 5 completed passes2316452728334732FultonA. MartinStirlingEastonHodsonOdoffinS. MartinMcMannCallachanAndersonSmithStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

McCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 3 passesMcCarthy and Erwin: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and McAllister: 3 passesMcGrath and Obika: 3 passesMcGrath and Erwin: 3 passesFraser and Tait: 4 passesFraser and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Obika: 4 passesAlnwick and Erwin: 5 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and McAllister: 5 passesTait and Erwin: 5 passesDurmus and Erwin: 5 passesMcAllister and Erwin: 5 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 6 passesTait and McGrath: 6 passesMcGrath and McAllister: 6 passesFraser and McGrath: 9 passesFraser and Erwin: 9 passesAlnwick: 13 completed passesShaughnessy: 9 completed passesMcCarthy: 13 completed passesFraser: 20 completed passesTait: 8 completed passesDurmus: 6 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 13 completed passesMcGrath: 19 completed passesMcAllister: 14 completed passesObika: 5 completed passesErwin: 13 completed passes1452221171710923AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserTaitDurmusDoyle-HayesMcGrathMcAllisterObikaErwinStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
S. MartinMcMann10
HodsonCallachan7
S. MartinAnderson7
EastonS. Martin6
EastonMcMann6

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McGrathFraser11
FraserMcGrath7
FraserErwin6
AlnwickErwin5
McGrathObika5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hamilton Academical

1−3.55−1.84−3.34−1.93−4.78+0.48+0.88−0.313+5.90−4.811+6.05+1.26+1.04−3.23−1.83−0.63+0.16+2.91−3.42−0.91−0.70−1.40−1.43+0.73+2.30−0.31+0.50−0.23+2.29−8.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

St. Mirren

6+0.87+1.69−4.82−4.514+8.610+2.37−1.010+2.613+4.910+3.22−3.13−3.28+3.96+0.72−4.00−4.35+1.54+1.33−0.46+1.61−1.12+0.61−0.20−1.84+1.80−1.00−0.20−0.80−0.43+2.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hamilton Academical

0.020.010.020.020.020.040.010.040.010.030.020.020.050.010.010.120.03−0.040.010.020.05−0.05−0.070.120.25LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.010.010.010.050.020.010.040.010.020.020.020.010.070.050.030.050.040.010.010.130.11−0.020.060.240.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHamilton Acad…0.86 → 0.86St. Mirren0.93 → 0.93Defence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.56 → 1.56St. Mirren1.16 → 1.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hamilton Academical
11th32%33%+1
Bottom49%49%0
St. Mirren
Top six70%47%−23
St. Johnstone
Top six30%53%+23
Kilmarnock
11th38%37%−1
Bottom35%35%0

From the forecast before the match (20 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren
Expected goals0.931.28
Win26%44%
Expected Points1.091.61
Clean sheet28%40%

Hamilton Academical 26%Draw 30%St. Mirren 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

St. Mirren goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+9%4%1%10%8%4%1%5%6%4%2%1%2%1%12%13%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 20 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHamilton Academical winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hamilton Academical
11th32%36%33%28%
Bottom49%31%49%59%
St. Mirren
Top six70%47%47%>99%
St. Johnstone
Top six30%53%53%–
Kilmarnock
11th38%32%37%41%
Bottom35%45%35%29%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hamilton Academical

  1. L1–213 MarLivingston (A)xG 0.19–1.26
  2. D0–06 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.51–1.97
  3. D1–13 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.66–1.04
  4. L0–220 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.40–2.49
  5. D1–117 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.52–0.74
  6. W4–113 FebMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–1.32

St. Mirren

  1. L0–36 MarRangers (A)xG 0.21–1.50
  2. W1–027 FebRoss County (H)xG 1.41–1.91
  3. D0–024 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.30–1.39
  4. D1–120 FebLivingston (H)xG 0.71–0.29
  5. D1–117 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.74–1.52
  6. D0–013 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.66–0.51

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren
Position11th6th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠8–⁠1810–⁠9–⁠13
Points26 (0.81 per game)39 (1.22 per game)
Expected Points per game0.841.18
Goals30–⁠5929–⁠37
xG per game0.85–⁠1.961.02–⁠1.26
Home: points, xG per game0.73, 0.65–⁠1.891.12, 1.08–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game0.88, 1.01–⁠2.031.33, 0.96–⁠1.31
ManagerBrian Rice (32)Jim Goodwin (32)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackHamilton Acad…0.86, 12thSt. Mirren0.93, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.56, 11thSt. Mirren1.16, 7th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHamilton Academical attack: 0.86St. Mirren attack: 0.930.930.86St. MirrenHamilton AcademicalDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHamilton Academical defence: 1.56St. Mirren defence: 1.161.561.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−46%+81%−26%+10%
Counter-attacks−57%+75%−22%−63%
Set pieces−17%+19%−6%−6%
Penalties+9%−9%−9%−27%
Headers−21%+61%−29%+11%
Left side−43%+54%−10%−1%
Centre−34%+85%−22%−2%
Right side−41%+33%−28%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−43%+14%Centre−34%−2%Right side−41%−1%Open play−46%+10%Counter-attacks−57%−63%Set pieces−17%−6%Headers−21%+11%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−10%+33%Centre−22%+85%Right side−28%+54%Open play−26%+81%Counter-attacks−22%+75%Set pieces−6%+19%Headers−29%+61%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Hamilton AcademicalSt. Mirren

0.85xG1.02
1.96xG against1.26
39%Possession47%
8.5Shots11.5
16.7Shots against12.3
2.8Shots on target3.3
0.9Big chances1.0
13.7Touches in the opposition box17.2
292Passes357
59%Pass accuracy67%
3.9Corners4.9
34%Field tilt43%
27.8Final-third entries32.9
6.8Box entries7.8
14.1Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.801.89
Ahead121.001.12
Behind380.842.31

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.991.15
Ahead171.361.29
Behind280.881.41

xG by period

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.282–10
16–300.120.355–11
31–450.120.306–8
46–600.140.333–9
61–750.230.359–11
76–900.160.355–10

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.143–4
16–300.140.214–10
31–450.230.167–6
46–600.090.273–6
61–750.120.233–7
76–900.290.259–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 27Gourlay 5Hodson 20Hamilton 6Odoffin 3A. Martin 18Odoffin 11Stirling 3Easton 17Want 10McMann 1McMann 22Odoffin 3Munro 2Hodson 7Hamilton 7Callachan 6Odoffin 13Callachan 11Collar 2S. Martin 15Trafford 9Stirling 6Callachan 8McMann 7Templeton 4Moyo 20Anderson 7Smith 4Ogboe 15Winter 8Stirling 34-4-2 in 9 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 28Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 23Tait 5Connolly 3McCarthy 31Shaughnessy 29Foley 3Tait 1Tait 20Durmus 7Fraser 2Connolly 8McAllister 8McGrath 4McGrath 20MacPhers… 9MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 16Doyle-HayesFraser 3Erwin 1Erhahon 24Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 10Mason 5McGrath 4Obika 13Erwin 9Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 February 2021St. Mirren1–1Hamilton AcademicalxG 0.74–1.52
15 August 2020Hamilton Academical0–1St. MirrenxG 0.83–1.97

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Hamilton Academical won 0, St. Mirren won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–2 and xG 1.18–1.35 per game.

Key players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan272,402830.280.10
Templeton7516120.150.23
Ogboe151,287310.230.03
Anderson7581210.210.03

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath292,361610.230.14
Morias7664000.250.09
Obika191,873510.300.05
Erwin121,155200.220.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.