Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 2–0 Hamilton Academical

Saturday 9 January 2021, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 23 · Half-time 1–0

Kilmarnock Kiltie 36', 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHamilton Academical
Goals20
xG1.500.43
Expected Points2.210.53

Kilmarnock 65%Draw 26%Hamilton Academical 9%

Most likely score 1–0, 22%. Final score 2–0, 18%.

Hamilton Academical goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+13%5%1%12%2%8%2%8%4%2%1%22%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTPinnock on for Burke, 78'Kabamba on for Whitehall and Dabo on for Mulumbu, 79'Tshibola on for Power, 86'Smith on for Moyo, 46'Kiltie 36'Kiltie 63'Kilmarnock 1.50Hamilton Academical 0.4300.511.520153045607590HTPinnock on for Burke, 78'Kabamba on for Whitehall and Dabo on for Mulumbu, 79'Tshibola on for Power, 86'Smith on for Moyo, 46'Kiltie 36'Kiltie 63'1.500.43KilmarnockHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

1.50 +0.51xG0.43 −0.44
1.21 +0.16xG on target0.06 −0.87
18 +8.2Shots6 −2.2
3 −0.1Shots on target1 −1.7
0 −1.0Big chances0 −0.9
30 +13Touches in the opposition box16 +4
63% +18Possession37% −2
539 +182Passes317 +21
77% +8Pass accuracy56% −4
76% +29Field tilt24% −7
57 +20Final-third entries27 −2
16 +7.1Box entries9 +2.8
9.3 −6Passes per defensive action21.0 +6
5 +0.1Corners3 −0.5
18 +6Tackles14 −3
15 +4Interceptions12 0
14 −3Clearances27 +4
1 −1.3Saves1 −2.9
13 +1Fouls11 −2
1 −1.3Offsides3 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Burke 40', 0.44 xGWhitehall 31', 0.12 xGKiltie 50', 0.10 xGWhitehall 65', 0.08 xGBurke 55', 0.07 xGFindlay 15', 0.06 xGWhitehall 20', 0.06 xGKiltie 21', 0.05 xGKiltie 24', 0.05 xGMulumbu 36', 0.05 xGMulumbu 23', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 76', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 14', 0.03 xGPower 59', 0.03 xGPinnock 82', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 38', 0.02 xGKiltie 36', 0.18 xG, goalKiltie 63', 0.06 xG, goal38%0.56 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.56 xG, 0 goals32%0.47 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.47 xG, 2 goals7%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals17%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals7%0.10 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Winter 38', 0.11 xGMcMann 57', 0.08 xGHodson 89', 0.08 xGWinter 29', 0.07 xGOdoffin 33', 0.06 xGTrafford 48', 0.04 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals91%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

1.20 14 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.37 5 shots, 0 goals
0.30 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.06 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (40%) · Kilmarnock 0.63, Hamilton Academical 0.13 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
54 min (60%) · Kilmarnock 0.87, Hamilton Academical 0.31 xG

Line-ups

23251732962171012RogersMcGowanBroadfootFindlayHaunstrupBurkePowerMulumbuMcKenzieKiltieWhitehallGoalGoal78'86'79'79'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Alex Dyer226174272143341920GourlayHamiltonStangerStirlingHodsonOdoffinTraffordMcMannCallachanWinterMoyoYellow card46'Hamilton Academical 3-4-1-2Brian Rice

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 78' Pinnock for Burke
  • 79' Dabo for Mulumbu
  • 79' Kabamba for Whitehall
  • 86' Tshibola for Power

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 46' Smith for Moyo

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RogersGK900.000.0000.0220
McGowanRB900.000.3210.3587
BroadfootCB900.000.0320.13188
FindlayCB900.060.0100.05210
HaunstrupLB9010.000.1620.33135
BurkeRM780.520.2940.0240
PowerCM860.030.0600.11147
MulumbuCM7910.090.0410.12129
McKenzieLM900.090.2010.1662
KiltieST9020.440.0600.0211
WhitehallST790.250.181−0.1000
PinnockMF120.030.000−0.0100
DaboMF110.000.000−0.0100
KabambaFW110.000.0000.0000
TshibolaMF40.000.000−0.0100

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GourlayGK900.000.0000.0231
Hamilton CB900.000.0100.0645
StangerCB900.000.0000.02210
StirlingCB900.000.000−0.0104
HodsonRWB900.080.0300.0543
OdoffinCM900.060.0000.00111
TraffordCM900.040.0100.0329
McMannLWB900.080.1020.1277
CallachanAM900.000.1320.1062
WinterST900.170.0200.1043
MoyoST460.000.0000.0123
SmithFW440.000.0710.0611

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Broadfoot and Haunstrup: 6 passesHaunstrup and Whitehall: 6 passesBurke and Mulumbu: 6 passesPower and McKenzie: 6 passesMcGowan and Whitehall: 7 passesBroadfoot and Kiltie: 7 passesPower and Kiltie: 7 passesHaunstrup and Kiltie: 8 passesMcGowan and Mulumbu: 9 passesFindlay and Power: 9 passesMulumbu and Kiltie: 10 passesMulumbu and McKenzie: 12 passesFindlay and Broadfoot: 13 passesFindlay and Mulumbu: 13 passesHaunstrup and Power: 13 passesBurke and Power: 15 passesMcGowan and Burke: 17 passesBroadfoot and Power: 17 passesBroadfoot and Mulumbu: 18 passesMulumbu and Power: 21 passesFindlay and Haunstrup: 22 passesHaunstrup and Mulumbu: 22 passesMcGowan and Broadfoot: 23 passesHaunstrup and McKenzie: 24 passesMcGowan and Power: 25 passesRogers: 10 completed passesMcGowan: 46 completed passesFindlay: 44 completed passesBroadfoot: 52 completed passesHaunstrup: 53 completed passesBurke: 27 completed passesMulumbu: 64 completed passesPower: 60 completed passesMcKenzie: 27 completed passesKiltie: 19 completed passesWhitehall: 13 completed passes23217532921671012RogersMcGowanFindlayBroadfootHaunstrupBurkeMulumbuPowerMcKenzieKiltieWhitehallStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Hamilton and Odoffin: 3 passesStirling and Trafford: 3 passesTrafford and Callachan: 3 passesOdoffin and Callachan: 3 passesMcMann and Winter: 3 passesCallachan and Winter: 3 passesHodson and Winter: 4 passesCallachan and Moyo: 4 passesHamilton and Hodson: 5 passesGourlay and Stirling: 6 passesHodson and Callachan: 6 passesGourlay and Hamilton: 7 passesGourlay: 9 completed passesStanger: 8 completed passesHamilton: 11 completed passesStirling: 6 completed passesHodson: 10 completed passesTrafford: 12 completed passesOdoffin: 4 completed passesMcMann: 7 completed passesCallachan: 11 completed passesMoyo: 4 completed passesWinter: 5 completed passes221764271423342019GourlayStangerHamiltonStirlingHodsonTraffordOdoffinMcMannCallachanMoyoWinterStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
McGowanPower14
HaunstrupMcKenzie13
McGowanBroadfoot12
BroadfootMulumbu12
MulumbuHaunstrup12

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
CallachanHodson9
StirlingGourlay8
HodsonHamilton7
GourlayHamilton7
HodsonCallachan7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−0.34−1.612−0.75−2.16−0.38+1.27−0.17+0.38−0.411+3.14+0.28+2.67+3.16+1.45−0.36+3.04+0.51−1.65+1.94+0.10−2.13+1.22+0.30−1.30−1.92+1.10−0.21+0.22+1.60−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Hamilton Academical

0−4.96−1.219+1.511+4.07+1.55−2.83−4.611+4.46−2.99+2.28+3.35+0.29+6.24−1.28+1.14−0.63−0.90−3.04+0.82−2.52−0.90−1.60−1.71−0.11−0.91+0.40−0.30−0.40−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.030.030.030.030.020.060.090.050.060.020.180.010.070.020.040.03−0.070.090.070.010.01−0.200.050.260.18LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.010.010.030.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.04−0.020.03−0.010.060.060.070.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackKilmarnock0.95 → 0.95Hamilton Acad…0.89 → 0.87Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22 → 1.19Hamilton Acad…1.79 → 1.79

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six21%28%+7
11th7%4%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%<1%−1
11th31%31%0
Bottom41%49%+8
Ross County
11th32%35%+3
Bottom42%38%−4
St. Mirren
Top six42%40%−2
11th4%3%−1

From the forecast before the match (9 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.520.98
Win49%24%
Expected Points1.750.98
Clean sheet38%22%

Kilmarnock 49%Draw 27%Hamilton Academical 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Hamilton Academical goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%7%4%1%6%2%5%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHamilton Academical win
Kilmarnock
Top six21%28%16%11%
11th7%4%8%13%
Bottom2%1%2%5%
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%<1%<1%2%
11th31%31%30%30%
Bottom41%49%41%27%
Ross County
11th32%35%31%24%
Bottom42%38%42%52%
St. Mirren
Top six42%40%42%46%
11th4%3%4%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–12 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.97–0.52
  2. W2–030 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.78–0.40
  3. L1–226 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.22–0.68
  4. L0–223 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.65–0.93
  5. L0–220 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.36–1.03
  6. L0–213 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.79–1.83

Hamilton Academical

  1. W3–02 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.87–0.86
  2. D0–030 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.84–2.22
  3. L0–326 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.09–3.69
  4. L0–223 DecLivingston (H)xG 0.05–2.20
  5. W2–019 DecRoss County (A)xG 0.80–0.91
  6. L0–412 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.17–3.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHamilton Academical
Position8th10th
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠3–⁠125–⁠3–⁠13
Points21 (1.00 per game)18 (0.86 per game)
Expected Points per game1.140.79
Goals22–⁠2621–⁠45
xG per game0.99–⁠1.360.87–⁠2.26
Home: points, xG per game1.10, 1.11–⁠1.340.73, 0.60–⁠2.23
Away: points, xG per game0.91, 0.89–⁠1.391.00, 1.16–⁠2.30
ManagerAlex Dyer (21)Brian Rice (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackKilmarnock0.95, 8thHamilton Acad…0.89, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.22, 8thHamilton Acad…1.79, 12th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 0.95Hamilton Academical attack: 0.890.950.89Hamilton AcademicalKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.22Hamilton Academical defence: 1.791.791.22

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−41%+3%−54%+105%
Counter-attacks−91%−73%−89%+194%
Set pieces+4%+23%−4%+38%
Penalties+27%+1%+27%−24%
Headers−19%+1%−17%+95%
Left side−16%+8%−33%+93%
Centre−34%+4%−36%+110%
Right side−33%+8%−55%+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−16%+43%Centre−34%+110%Right side−33%+93%Open play−41%+105%Counter-attacks−91%+194%Set pieces+4%+38%Headers−19%+95%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−33%+8%Centre−36%+4%Right side−55%+8%Open play−54%+3%Counter-attacks−89%−73%Set pieces−4%+23%Headers−17%+1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

0.99xG0.87
1.36xG against2.26
45%Possession39%
9.8Shots8.2
14.3Shots against17.7
3.1Shots on target2.7
1.0Big chances0.9
17.2Touches in the opposition box11.8
357Passes296
69%Pass accuracy60%
4.9Corners3.5
47%Field tilt32%
36.8Final-third entries28.5
8.9Box entries6.2
15.2Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.021.29
Ahead211.021.60
Behind270.941.29

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.802.26
Ahead90.781.01
Behind430.942.52

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.183–4
16–300.160.244–6
31–450.160.154–2
46–600.210.185–4
61–750.200.273–3
76–900.150.353–7

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.381–8
16–300.100.402–10
31–450.080.274–6
46–600.140.343–7
61–750.280.457–8
76–900.180.424–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWRogers 20Eastwood 1Millen 9McGowan 8Rossi 3Broadfoot 21Findlay 18Dikamona 3Waters 16Haunstrup 4Tshibola 1Power 16Kabamba 5Burke 1Dicker 13McKenzie 3Kiltie 2Tshibola 18Pinnock 1Waters 1Burke 15Brophy 2McKenzie 1Kabamba 12Brophy 6Kiltie 2Kiltie 8McKenzie 6Pinnock 44-3-3 in 9 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-4-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 4-5-1 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 17Gourlay 4Hodson 13Hamilton 3Odoffin 2Odoffin 10Martin 9Hamilton 2Want 10Easton 7McMann 1McMann 15Odoffin 2Munro 2Callachan 6Hodson 3L. Smith 3Callachan 8Odoffin 5Stirling 3S. Martin 13Mimnaugh 4Trafford 3McMann 4Templeton 4Smith 3Moyo 15Templeton 2Callachan 1Ogboe 9Winter 7Stirling 34-4-2 in 9 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 December 2020Hamilton Academical1–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.85
19 September 2020Kilmarnock2–1Hamilton AcademicalxG 1.88–1.57

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hamilton Academical won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.36–1.56 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Burke171,461630.230.24
Brophy8637200.320.02
Pinnock6611030.050.27
Kabamba171,534500.270.02

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan161,415620.350.07
Templeton7516120.150.23
Mimnaugh5478010.010.23
Ogboe9866210.190.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.