Matches › 2020/21

Kilmarnock 2–1 Hamilton Academical

Saturday 19 September 2020, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 8 · Half-time 1–1

Kilmarnock Kiltie 10', Kabamba 57' · Brophy sent off 23'

Hamilton Academical Odoffin 18'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hamilton Academical
Goals	2	1
xG	1.88	1.57
Expected Points	1.57	1.15

Kilmarnock 43%Draw 28%Hamilton Academical 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Final score 2–1, 13%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

1.88 +1.11xG1.57 +0.75

1.82 +0.80xG on target1.41 +0.60

17 +7.7Shots15 +6.2

8 +4.9Shots on target4 +1.0

3 +2.3Big chances1 +0.3

44% +3Possession56% +19

358 +27Passes443 +177

70% +1Pass accuracy80% +21

37% −4Field tilt63% +34

45 +9Final-third entries48 +23

12 +1.7Box entries15 +7.7

15.1 +1Passes per defensive action12.7 −4

6 +1.3Corners8 +2.7

14 0Tackles13 −6

8 −4Interceptions14 +3

21 +3Clearances22 −1

3 +0.4Saves6 +1.0

10 −2Fouls12 +1

3 +0.9Offsides1 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Hamilton Academical

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

1.40 14 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.61 11 shots, 0 goals

0.47 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.96 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–01–12–1

Level: 49 min (51%) · Kilmarnock 1.30, Hamilton Academical 0.35 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 47 min (49%) · Kilmarnock 0.58, Hamilton Academical 1.22 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

82' McKenzie for Burke
90' Pinnock for Kiltie

Hamilton Academical substitutes

56' Smith for Martin
61' Johnson for Hamilton
68' Winter for Ogboe
68' Trafford for Collar

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Rogers	GK	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	3	1
Millen	RB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.06	7	8
Broadfoot	CB	90			0.00	0.01	1	0.03	5	6
Findlay	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	3	10
Waters	LB	90			0.00	0.07	1	0.12	3	6
Burke	RM	82		1	0.34	1.03	2	0.48	8	1
Tshibola	CM	90			0.37	0.09	3	0.29	9	5
Dicker	CM	90			0.04	0.06	0	0.16	9	5
Kiltie	LM	90	1		0.20	0.04	2	0.08	5	2
Brophy	ST	23			0.41	0.00	0	−0.01	0	0
Kabamba	ST	90	1		0.52	0.01	1	0.00	1	3
McKenzie	MF	8			0.00	0.01	0	0.00	1	0
Pinnock	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Hamilton Academical

Player	Pos	Min	G	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Fulton	GK	90		0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	1
Hamilton	RB	61		0.04	0.04	0	0.03	3	2
Odoffin	CB	90	1	0.85	0.01	0	0.05	2	16
Want	CB	90		0.00	0.03	1	0.06	4	9
McMann	LB	90		0.00	0.15	2	0.24	8	5
Collar	CM	68		0.06	0.07	0	0.09	7	4
Martin	CM	56		0.03	0.03	0	0.08	3	4
Mimnaugh	CM	90		0.06	0.41	2	0.28	17	3
Templeton	AM	90		0.10	0.41	3	0.08	3	3
Ogboe	ST	68		0.19	0.03	1	0.06	1	0
Moyo	ST	90		0.10	0.03	2	−0.02	1	4
Smith	FW	34		0.00	0.05	1	0.03	1	1
Johnson	MF	29		0.05	0.07	0	0.06	7	0
Winter	FW	22		0.04	0.00	0	0.03	1	0
Trafford	MF	22		0.03	0.01	0	0.01	2	3

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Hamilton Academical

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Tshibola	Millen	10
Waters	Tshibola	10
Tshibola	Dicker	10
Millen	Tshibola	8
Tshibola	Burke	8

Hamilton Academical

From	To	Passes
McMann	Mimnaugh	14
Hamilton	Collar	11
Mimnaugh	Templeton	11
Odoffin	Mimnaugh	11
Mimnaugh	McMann	10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 7 matches

Hamilton Academical

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Hamilton Academical

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	33%	41%	+8
11th	10%	7%	−3
Bottom	7%	4%	−3
Hamilton Academical
Top six	8%	5%	−3
11th	20%	20%	0
Bottom	36%	43%	+7
Livingston
Top six	28%	26%	−2
11th	11%	11%	0
Bottom	9%	8%	−1

From the forecast before the match (19 September 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hamilton Academical
Expected goals	1.45	0.83
Win	51%	21%
Expected Points	1.82	0.90
Clean sheet	44%	23%

Kilmarnock 51%Draw 28%Hamilton Academical 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

From the forecast as it stood on 19 September 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Hamilton Academical win
Kilmarnock
Top six	33%	41%	28%	21%
11th	10%	7%	11%	13%
Bottom	7%	4%	7%	13%
Hamilton Academical
Top six	8%	5%	9%	15%
11th	20%	20%	20%	18%
Bottom	36%	43%	34%	24%
Livingston
Top six	28%	26%	28%	31%
11th	11%	11%	10%	10%
Bottom	9%	8%	9%	9%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Hamilton Academical

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Hamilton Academical
Position	10th	9th
Played	7	6
Won, drawn, lost	1–⁠2–⁠4	2–⁠0–⁠4
Points	5 (0.71 per game)	6 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game	0.85	0.66
Goals	9–⁠10	4–⁠10
xG per game	0.77–⁠1.62	0.82–⁠2.55
Home: points, xG per game	1.33, 1.02–⁠1.14	0.00, 0.48–⁠2.54
Away: points, xG per game	0.25, 0.59–⁠1.97	2.00, 1.16–⁠2.56
Manager	Alex Dyer (7)	Brian Rice (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Hamilton Academical
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−42%	+21%	−69%	+150%
Counter-attacks	−72%	−72%	−100%	+71%
Set pieces	−48%	+45%	+59%	+32%
Penalties	−12%	−12%	−100%	−100%
Headers	−44%	−10%	+7%	+50%
Left side	−44%	+51%	−28%	+147%
Centre	−53%	+8%	−17%	+136%
Right side	−30%	+32%	−63%	+35%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−44%+35%Centre−53%+136%Right side−30%+147%Open play−42%+150%Counter-attacks−72%+71%Set pieces−48%+32%Headers−44%+50%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−28%+32%Centre−17%+8%Right side−63%+51%Open play−69%+21%Counter-attacks−100%−72%Set pieces+59%+45%Headers+7%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHamilton Academical

0.77xG0.82

1.62xG against2.55

41%Possession37%

9.3Shots8.8

16.7Shots against19.0

3.1Shots on target3.0

0.7Big chances0.7

331Passes266

68%Pass accuracy58%

4.7Corners5.3

41%Field tilt30%

35.6Final-third entries24.8

10.3Box entries7.3

14.5Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	39	0.64	1.61
Ahead	14	1.00	2.59
Behind	37	0.84	1.26

Hamilton Academical

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	41	1.21	2.35
Ahead	2	0.00	0.00
Behind	48	0.51	2.79

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.06	0.27	0–3
16–30	0.14	0.07	2–1
31–45	0.15	0.17	2–1
46–60	0.11	0.23	1–1
61–75	0.14	0.32	2–0
76–90	0.18	0.55	2–4

Hamilton Academical

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.09	0.36	0–2
16–30	0.06	0.69	0–3
31–45	0.05	0.31	1–1
46–60	0.12	0.44	1–2
61–75	0.18	0.35	0–0
76–90	0.33	0.39	2–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-3-3 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hamilton Academical

Formations: 4-4-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	xG per 90	xA per 90
Burke	7	592	3	0.18	0.16
Kabamba	6	557	2	0.14	0.01
Tshibola	7	618	1	0.08	0.04
Findlay	7	569	0	0.03	0.03

Hamilton Academical

Player	Starts	Min	G	xG per 90	xA per 90
Odoffin	6	520	1	0.28	0.10
Callachan	6	506	0	0.16	0.04
Martin	6	517	0	0.03	0.03
Want	6	532	0	0.05	0.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.