Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Hibernian

Saturday 28 November 2026, 17:45 · Fir Park · Round 15

Forecast

MotherwellHibernian
Expected goals1.431.17
Win42%30%
Expected Points1.551.18
Clean sheet31%24%

Motherwell 42%Draw 27%Hibernian 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  2. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  3. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  4. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  5. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  6. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHibernian
Position9th10th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠42–⁠1–⁠5
Points8 (1.00 per game)7 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.271.33
Goals9–⁠138–⁠12
xG per game1.51–⁠1.871.58–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.110.25, 1.56–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.61–⁠2.631.50, 1.60–⁠1.81
ManagerAlfred Johansson (8)Marink Reedijk (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.30, 5thHibernian1.32, 4thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thHibernian1.27, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.30Hibernian attack: 1.321.321.30HibernianMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Hibernian defence: 1.271.321.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%+1%−15%+6%
Counter-attacks−12%+81%−13%−1%
Set pieces−42%average+8%−6%
Penalties+20%+80%+80%+20%
Headers−43%−1%−35%+7%
Left side−32%−13%−11%−2%
Centre−31%+19%−25%+24%
Right side+58%+22%+20%−26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHibernian concededLeft side−32%−26%Centre−31%+24%Right side+58%−2%Open play+6%+6%Counter-attacks−12%−1%Set pieces−42%−6%Headers−43%+7%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdMotherwell concededLeft side−11%+22%Centre−25%+19%Right side+20%−13%Open play−15%+1%Counter-attacks−13%+81%Set pieces+8%averageHeaders−35%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHibernian

1.51xG1.58
1.87xG against1.65
58%Possession51%
14.0Shots16.4
16.4Shots against13.4
4.4Shots on target4.4
2.1Big chances2.0
24.6Touches in the opposition box31.6
571Passes443
88%Pass accuracy81%
5.1Corners6.9
59%Field tilt55%
50.8Final-third entries44.7
14.1Box entries15.0
14.8Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.601.37
Ahead172.361.40
Behind401.082.49

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.181–2
16–300.280.342–1
31–450.270.242–5
46–600.140.460–3
61–750.280.262–0
76–900.220.392–2

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 8Sparrow 8Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 1Moormann 8Longelo 7Williams 1Fadinger 8Priestman 2Hodge 5Levitt 1Maswanhise 4Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 4Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 2Maswanhise 2Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 August 2026Hibernian1–2MotherwellxG 1.94–2.19
16 May 2026Hibernian0–1MotherwellxG 0.76–1.16
21 March 2026Motherwell0–0HibernianxG 0.44–0.60
10 January 2026Hibernian1–1MotherwellxG 1.31–1.03
25 November 2025Motherwell2–0HibernianxG 2.14–0.77
11 January 2025Hibernian3–1MotherwellxG 2.22–0.22

21 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Hibernian won 7, and 7 were drawn. Goals 24–28 and xG 1.11–1.39 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6491120.600.05
Lowry6534210.260.23
Longelo8656000.080.24
Fadinger8689100.180.06

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.