Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Celtic v Kilmarnock

Sunday 8 November 2026, 16:00 · Celtic Park · Round 13

Forecast

CelticKilmarnock
Expected goals2.870.69
Win82%6%
Expected Points2.570.30
Clean sheet50%6%

Celtic 82%Draw 12%Kilmarnock 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+3%2%8%6%2%8%3%8%3%8%6%2%5%3%1%4%2%12%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Celtic

  1. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  2. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  4. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  5. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  6. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–310 OctRangers (A)xG 1.15–1.42
  2. D1–119 SepHearts (H)xG 0.39–1.92
  3. W1–015 SepHibernian (A)xG 2.21–1.45
  4. D0–05 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.11–1.08
  5. L0–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.41–0.85
  6. L0–429 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.13–3.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticKilmarnock
Position1st12th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠0–⁠11–⁠2–⁠5
Points21 (2.62 per game)5 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game2.250.81
Goals16–⁠47–⁠18
xG per game2.76–⁠1.031.04–⁠2.21
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 2.19–⁠0.890.25, 0.73–⁠2.92
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 3.33–⁠1.181.00, 1.35–⁠1.49
ManagerMartin O'Neill (26)Neil McCann (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackCeltic2.11, 1stKilmarnock1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.88, 1stKilmarnock1.58, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic attack: 2.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.172.111.17KilmarnockCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctCeltic defence: 0.88Kilmarnock defence: 1.581.580.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+121%−47%−20%+41%
Counter-attacks+175%−28%−77%+88%
Set pieces−21%−4%−15%+48%
Penalties−100%−40%−100%−40%
Headers+132%−24%−36%+137%
Left side+164%−64%−39%+57%
Centre+93%−6%−23%+80%
Right side+25%−48%−20%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+164%−5%Centre+93%+80%Right side+25%+57%Open play+121%+41%Counter-attacks+175%+88%Set pieces−21%+48%Headers+132%+137%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−39%−48%Centre−23%−6%Right side−20%−64%Open play−20%−47%Counter-attacks−77%−28%Set pieces−15%−4%Headers−36%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticKilmarnock

2.76xG1.04
1.03xG against2.21
62%Possession42%
20.6Shots10.2
10.9Shots against18.5
9.1Shots on target4.0
5.0Big chances1.6
39.5Touches in the opposition box20.1
620Passes378
88%Pass accuracy77%
9.4Corners4.6
68%Field tilt39%
62.3Final-third entries36.9
24.5Box entries10.5
13.0Passes per defensive action16.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.061.25
Ahead543.220.93
Behind112.161.05

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level280.821.77
Ahead171.462.19
Behind451.012.49

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.134–0
16–300.420.241–1
31–450.550.234–1
46–600.590.075–1
61–750.340.212–1
76–900.540.150–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.300–4
16–300.100.371–2
31–450.170.422–5
46–600.230.323–2
61–750.170.280–2
76–900.200.521–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 7Johnstone 1Donovan 5Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 2Trusty 6Scales 3Tierney 5Scales 3McGregor 7Baur 5Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 6Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Høgh 4Durán 44-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTStryjek 6Ferrie 2Ring 3Brandon 3Kamara 1McCarthy 5Schilte-Brown 1Stanger 7Yfeko 2Deas 1Schjønning-L… 8Schjønning-LarsenKiltie 2Ring 2McCarthy 1Tshibola 2Ring 2O'Hara 2Lowery 7Rice 2Kiltie 5Tshibola 2Cleșcenco 1John-Jules 7Daniëls 1Hugill 84-4-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2026Kilmarnock1–5CelticxG 0.98–5.50
15 February 2026Kilmarnock2–3CelticxG 0.86–2.98
9 November 2025Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 2.85–0.38
14 September 2025Kilmarnock1–2CelticxG 1.66–2.83
12 April 2025Celtic5–1KilmarnockxG 1.81–0.29
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 14, Kilmarnock won 1, and 2 were drawn. Goals 53–11 and xG 2.69–1.07 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7564430.660.23
Durán7531430.490.32
Baur5460100.300.14
Scales6536100.100.15

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kiltie8699100.290.18
John-Jules7483000.220.10
Hugill8720110.250.04
Ring7533000.050.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.