Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 1–1 Livingston

Saturday 8 November 2025, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 7,176

Falkirk Graham 16' (pen)

Livingston Wilson 89'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkLivingston
Goals11
xG1.820.62
Non-penalty xG1.040.62
Expected Points2.350.44

Falkirk 71%Draw 21%Livingston 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 20%. Final score 1–1, 13%.

Livingston goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+4%2%13%3%13%4%9%6%2%2%2%17%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTCartwright on for Tait and Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Graham, 62'Ross on for Miller, 73'Agyeman on for Wilson, 76'Arfield on for Williams, 77'Shinnie on for May, 23'Muirhead on for Bokila and Winter on for Smith, 68'Carey on for Sylla and Lawal on for Brenet, 75'Graham 16' (pen)Wilson 89'Falkirk 1.82Livingston 0.6200.511.520153045607590HTCartwright on for Tait and Samuel-Ogunsuyi on for Graham, 62'Ross on for Miller, 73'Agyeman on for Wilson, 76'Arfield on for Williams, 77'Shinnie on for May, 23'Muirhead on for Bokila and Winter on for Smith, 68'Carey on for Sylla and Lawal on for Brenet, 75'Graham 16' (pen)Wilson 89'1.820.62FalkirkLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkLivingston

1.82 +0.64xG0.62 −0.56
1.04Non-penalty xG0.62
1.04 −0.21xG on target1.31 −0.02
12 +0.5Shots11 +2.2
2 −2.7Shots on target5 +1.3
2 −0.2Big chances1 −0.5
29 +10Touches in the opposition box15 −4
43% −8Possession57% +12
344 −54Passes464 +103
72% −4Pass accuracy76% +2
50% 0Field tilt50% +11
27 −8Final-third entries46 +16
12 +1.4Box entries9 +1.2
12.0 −1Passes per defensive action8.3 −5
6 +1.6Corners1 −3.7
12 −7Tackles28 +9
14 +6.2Interceptions7 −1.0
26 −5Clearances23 −16
4 +0.1Saves1 −1.8
19 +6Fouls14 −1
1 −1.6Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Graham 53', 0.43 xGWilson 68', 0.11 xGGraham 46', 0.10 xGWilson 12', 0.07 xGWilson 36', 0.06 xGArfield 90', 0.06 xGTait 28', 0.05 xGAgyeman 86', 0.05 xGWilliams 37', 0.04 xGSpencer 29', 0.03 xGLissah 53', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals55%0.57 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals27%0.28 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals17%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Bokila 54', 0.12 xGSmith 38', 0.11 xGMuirhead 80', 0.09 xGSmith 21', 0.06 xGYengi 25', 0.05 xGSylla 33', 0.05 xGMay 6', 0.02 xGShinnie 32', 0.02 xGFinlayson 48', 0.01 xGMontano 90+2', 0.01 xGWilson 89', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal20%0.12 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals33%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkLivingston

0.66 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.53 9 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.21 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (21%) · Falkirk 0.92, Livingston 0.03 xG
Falkirk ahead
73 min (79%) · Falkirk 0.90, Livingston 0.59 xG

Line-ups

192205288212229247BainAdamsAllanHendersonLissahSpencerTaitWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal62'76'73'77'62'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn283019272672415173918PriorBrenetFinlaysonWilsonMontanoSusohoSyllaSmithMayYengiBokilaGoalYellow card75'75'68'23'68'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Falkirk substitutes

  • 62' Cartwright for Tait
  • 62' Samuel-Ogunsuyi for Graham
  • 73' Ross for Miller
  • 76' Agyeman for Wilson
  • 77' Arfield for Williams

Livingston substitutes

  • 23' Shinnie for May
  • 68' Winter for Smith
  • 68' Muirhead for Bokila · yellow card 69'
  • 75' Lawal for Brenet
  • 75' Carey for Sylla · 1 assist

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0221
AdamsRB900.000.0200.07510
Allan CB900.000.0100.0333
HendersonCB900.000.0000.03410
Lissah LB900.030.0210.13115
SpencerDM900.030.0510.0558
TaitDM620.050.000−0.0323
WilsonRW760.240.0300.0742
MillerAM730.000.0620.0221
Williams LW770.040.0310.0852
GrahamST6211.310.0100.0010
CartwrightMF280.000.010−0.0105
Samuel-OgunsuyiFW280.000.0110.0200
RossFW170.000.0100.0112
AgyemanFW140.050.0000.0111
ArfieldMF130.060.0010.0111

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0332
BrenetRB750.000.0100.0577
FinlaysonCB900.010.0100.0567
WilsonCB9010.080.0100.12111
MontanoLB900.010.0610.17128
SusohoDM900.000.0100.0125
SyllaDM750.050.0000.00114
SmithRW680.170.0210.0453
MayAM230.020.0110.0010
YengiLW900.050.3230.3887
Bokila ST680.120.000−0.0600
ShinnieMF670.020.021−0.0313
WinterFW220.000.0000.0111
Muirhead FW220.090.000−0.0100
LawalDF150.000.0100.0453
CareyMF1510.000.1810.0420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Bain and Adams: 4 passesAdams and Graham: 4 passesHenderson and Allan: 4 passesHenderson and Williams: 4 passesAllan and Spencer: 4 passesTait and Miller: 4 passesTait and Williams: 4 passesSpencer and Williams: 4 passesSpencer and Graham: 4 passesWilliams and Graham: 4 passesMiller and Williams: 5 passesAdams and Tait: 6 passesAdams and Spencer: 6 passesLissah and Tait: 6 passesLissah and Miller: 6 passesTait and Spencer: 7 passesBain and Allan: 8 passesHenderson and Lissah: 8 passesLissah and Spencer: 8 passesBain and Henderson: 9 passesAdams and Wilson: 11 passesLissah and Williams: 13 passesBain: 15 completed passesAdams: 24 completed passesHenderson: 18 completed passesAllan: 14 completed passesLissah: 27 completed passesTait: 17 completed passesSpencer: 25 completed passesWilson: 11 completed passesMiller: 8 completed passesWilliams: 18 completed passesGraham: 5 completed passes192520282182229247BainAdamsHendersonAllanLissahTaitSpencerWilsonMillerWilliamsGrahamStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

Brenet and Susoho: 3 passesFinlayson and Susoho: 3 passesMay and Yengi: 3 passesBrenet and Smith: 5 passesBrenet and May: 5 passesBrenet and Finlayson: 6 passesSmith and May: 6 passesPrior and Wilson: 8 passesWilson and Finlayson: 8 passesPrior: 9 completed passesBrenet: 13 completed passesWilson: 10 completed passesFinlayson: 9 completed passesMontano: 3 completed passesSylla: 3 completed passesSusoho: 6 completed passesSmith: 7 completed passesMay: 9 completed passesYengi: 3 completed passesBokila: 1 completed passes283027192624715173918PriorBrenetWilsonFinlaysonMontanoSyllaSusohoSmithMayYengiBokilaStarters until 23' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
SpencerLissah11
LissahWilliams9
HendersonLissah9
AdamsWilson8
BainAllan7

Livingston

FromToPasses
WilsonFinlayson25
FinlaysonWilson18
PriorWilson18
FinlaysonBrenet15
BrenetFinlayson13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

5−2.76−0.510−5.16−1.56+0.916+8.29+3.110+3.66−0.915+7.114+6.63−1.51−1.62−2.410+3.38+3.640.01−1.23+0.45+0.62−2.20−1.73+2.02−0.25+2.41+0.20−0.21+0.41+0.92+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Livingston

11+5.312+4.316−1.48+0.13−3.513+5.76−2.05−2.96−3.64−0.85+0.17+4.24−3.16+2.55+0.42−0.56+1.76+1.62−0.73+1.63+1.63+1.16+3.61−0.10−0.41+0.20−0.51−0.63−5.22−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.030.040.010.030.010.060.030.030.010.010.04−0.01−0.010.03−0.010.010.13LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.010.020.010.020.030.040.020.030.050.010.020.020.03−0.010.040.040.080.010.060.01−0.06−0.070.150.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.11 → 1.14Livingston1.06 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.58 → 1.53Livingston1.68 → 1.69

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six29%24%−5
11th11%13%+2
Bottom6%7%+1
Livingston
Top six3%3%0
11th25%25%0
Bottom35%34%−1
Dundee FC
11th26%25%−1
Bottom40%41%+1

From the forecast before the match (8 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkLivingston
Expected goals1.621.09
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.731.01
Clean sheet34%20%

Falkirk 49%Draw 26%Livingston 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Livingston goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawLivingston win
Falkirk
Top six29%36%24%19%
11th11%7%13%16%
Bottom6%3%7%11%
Livingston
Top six3%2%3%7%
11th25%27%25%22%
Bottom35%42%34%23%
Dundee FC
11th26%28%25%24%
Bottom40%39%41%43%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. W3–11 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.08–0.43
  2. L0–429 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.47–4.29
  3. W2–125 OctDundee FC (H)xG 1.08–1.21
  4. W2–118 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.35–1.01
  5. D1–15 OctRangers (H)xG 1.43–1.09
  6. L0–327 SepHearts (A)xG 0.67–1.94

Livingston

  1. D2–21 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.87–0.76
  2. L1–225 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.45–2.16
  3. L0–418 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.43–2.80
  4. D1–14 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.29–2.14
  5. L1–228 SepRangers (H)xG 0.74–2.38
  6. L2–320 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.51–2.74

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkLivingston
Position5th12th
Played1111
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠3–⁠41–⁠4–⁠6
Points15 (1.36 per game)7 (0.64 per game)
Expected Points per game1.201.02
Goals15–⁠2013–⁠22
xG per game1.18–⁠1.611.18–⁠1.85
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 1.41–⁠1.320.80, 1.43–⁠1.50
Away: points, xG per game1.20, 0.91–⁠1.960.50, 0.98–⁠2.14
ManagerJohn McGlynn (11)David Martindale (148)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackFalkirk1.11, 10thLivingston1.06, 11thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.58, 10thLivingston1.68, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovFalkirk attack: 1.11Livingston attack: 1.061.111.06LivingstonFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovFalkirk defence: 1.58Livingston defence: 1.681.681.58

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open playaverage+19%−19%+41%
Counter-attacks−20%+45%−69%−41%
Set pieces−9%average−49%+21%
Penalties−100%average+149%+99%
Headers−16%+24%−41%+2%
Left side−51%−19%−51%+60%
Centre−7%+26%−36%+8%
Right side+47%+30%−14%+31%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdLivingston concededLeft side−51%+31%Centre−7%+8%Right side+47%+60%Open playaverage+41%Counter-attacks−20%−41%Set pieces−9%+21%Headers−16%+2%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdFalkirk concededLeft side−51%+30%Centre−36%+26%Right side−14%−19%Open play−19%+19%Counter-attacks−69%+45%Set pieces−49%averageHeaders−41%+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkLivingston

1.18xG1.18
1.61xG against1.85
52%Possession45%
11.5Shots8.8
14.0Shots against14.2
4.7Shots on target3.7
2.2Big chances1.5
19.2Touches in the opposition box19.0
398Passes361
76%Pass accuracy74%
4.4Corners4.7
50%Field tilt39%
35.3Final-third entries30.3
10.6Box entries7.8
12.7Passes per defensive action13.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.231.69
Ahead100.850.56
Behind341.221.82

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.881.96
Ahead131.471.41
Behind301.541.86

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.151–0
16–300.230.441–6
31–450.220.422–6
46–600.180.243–2
61–750.190.215–4
76–900.160.153–2

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.170–2
16–300.170.203–1
31–450.240.353–3
46–600.110.470–6
61–750.260.223–3
76–900.330.444–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 11Adams 11Neilson 6Allan 3Lissah 1Henderson 11McCann 6Lissah 3Neilson 1Tait 6Cartwright 5Spencer 11Miller 4Wilson 4Arfield 2Tait 4Williams 3Miller 1Miller 6Williams 2Ross 2MacIver 9Samuel-Ogunsuyi 1Graham 14-2-3-1 in every start

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWPrior 11Finlayson 8Brenet 2Lawal 1McGowan 5Sylla 2Finlayson 2Wilson 10Blaney 3Montgomery 8Montano 2Lawal 1Pittman 10Susoho 4Wilson 1Tait 8Muirhead 1Sylla 8Carey 1Smith 7Pittman 1May 1Bokila 5Muirhead 4May 2Winter 3Yengi 3May 24-3-3 in 5 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (5), 4-2-3-1 (5), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 August 2025Livingston3–1FalkirkxG 1.59–0.78

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Falkirk won 0, Livingston won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–3 and xG 0.78–1.59 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Williams6500130.260.18
Miller11834220.230.19
Tait10833100.110.11

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead6482110.480.21
May5520010.170.16
Pittman11881310.200.07
Smith7533210.140.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.