Saturday 13 March 2021, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 0–0
Ross County McKay 50'
Hibernian Boyle 52' (pen), Nisbet 60'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
Ross County
Hibernian
Goals
1
2
xG
1.36
2.75
Non-penalty xG
1.36
1.96
Expected Points
0.47
2.35
Ross County 9%Draw 19%Hibernian 72%
Most likely score 1–3, 14%. Final score 1–2, 12%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
Ross CountyHibernian
1.36 +0.33xG2.75 +1.25
1.36Non-penalty xG1.96
1.63 +0.80xG on target3.06 +1.52
9 −0.9Shots14 +2.1
4 +0.8Shots on target6 +1.8
2 +0.7Big chances3 +1.1
17 +2Touches in the opposition box27 +6
53% +5Possession47% −4
394 +15Passes343 −52
59% −10Pass accuracy58% −13
44% −2Field tilt56% +8
34 −2Final-third entries35 −5
8 +0.4Box entries11 +0.2
18.7 +4Passes per defensive action15.5 +2
1 −3.3Corners7 +1.4
8 −6Tackles8 −6
14 +3Interceptions15 +5
21 −4Clearances22 +2
4 +0.9Saves3 +0.5
11 −4Fouls11 −2
1 −0.6Offsides6 +3.9
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Ross County
Hibernian
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
50'52'60'
0–01–11–2
0'HTFT
Level
58 min (64%) · Ross County 1.04, Hibernian 1.46 xG
Ross County ahead
2 min (2%) · Ross County 0.00, Hibernian 0.83 xG
Hibernian ahead
30 min (33%) · Ross County 0.32, Hibernian 0.45 xG
Line-ups
Ross County substitutes
63'Hylton for Spittal
68'Paton for Tillson
69'Draper for Lakin
69'Gardyne for Donaldson
83'Shaw for Iacovitti
Hibernian substitutes
52'Nisbet for Cadden · goal 60'
75'Stevenson for Doig
88'McGregor for Doidge
Players
Ross County
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Laidlaw
GK
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.07
5
0
Donaldson
CB
69
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
5
7
Watson
CB
90
0.07
0.01
0
0.07
4
11
Iacovitti
CB
83
0.00
0.05
1
0.11
4
8
Naismith
RWB
90
0.05
0.02
0
0.01
4
1
Spittal
CM
63
0.00
0.01
0
0.03
5
0
Tillson
CM
68
0.00
0.10
0
0.20
3
1
Lakin
CM
69
0.00
0.01
0
0.03
2
5
Hjelde
LWB
90
0.03
0.18
1
0.09
7
8
McKay
AM
90
1
0.64
0.05
0
−0.02
2
1
White
ST
90
1
0.48
0.24
1
0.00
1
2
Hylton
FW
27
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
2
0
Paton
MF
22
0.00
0.02
0
0.04
0
0
Draper
DF
21
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
2
0
Gardyne
MF
21
0.00
0.07
2
0.12
4
1
Shaw
FW
7
0.08
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Hibernian
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Marciano
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
4
0
Cadden
RWB
52
0.15
0.01
0
0.04
7
0
McGinn
CB
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.10
5
9
Porteous
CB
90
0.00
0.01
1
0.06
4
13
Hanlon
CB
90
1
0.00
0.42
2
0.23
7
7
Doig
LWB
75
0.08
0.02
0
0.05
3
1
Irvine
CM
90
0.05
0.61
4
0.12
7
1
Gogic
CM
90
0.05
0.02
0
0.06
7
3
Newell
CM
90
0.00
0.09
1
0.12
4
5
Boyle
ST
90
1
1.27
0.24
1
0.02
4
1
Doidge
ST
88
0.24
0.07
1
0.16
1
2
Nisbet
FW
38
1
0.92
0.05
1
0.06
1
0
Stevenson
MF
15
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
4
McGregor
DF
2
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
1
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Ross County
Hibernian
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Ross County
From
To
Passes
Laidlaw
White
7
Watson
Laidlaw
6
Naismith
Donaldson
6
Naismith
Gardyne
6
Naismith
Watson
5
Hibernian
From
To
Passes
McGinn
Irvine
9
McGinn
Cadden
8
Newell
Doig
7
Doig
Newell
7
Irvine
Nisbet
7
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Ross County
Against its average of 31 matches
Hibernian
Against its average of 31 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Ross County
Hibernian
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Ross County
11th
28%
31%
+3
Bottom
15%
19%
+4
Hamilton Academical
11th
34%
32%
−2
Bottom
44%
42%
−2
Kilmarnock
11th
36%
35%
−1
Bottom
41%
39%
−2
From the forecast before the match (13 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Ross County
Hibernian
Expected goals
0.87
1.73
Win
18%
57%
Expected Points
0.79
1.97
Clean sheet
18%
42%
Ross County 18%Draw 25%Hibernian 57%
Most likely score 0–1, 12%. Both sides score 48%.
From the forecast as it stood on 13 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Ross County win
Draw
Hibernian win
Ross County
11th
28%
18%
26%
31%
Bottom
15%
6%
12%
19%
Hamilton Academical
11th
34%
37%
35%
32%
Bottom
44%
49%
45%
42%
Kilmarnock
11th
36%
40%
36%
35%
Bottom
41%
45%
43%
39%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Ross County
Hibernian
Position
10th
3rd
Played
31
31
Won, drawn, lost
8–5–18
15–7–9
Points
29 (0.94 per game)
52 (1.68 per game)
Expected Points per game
0.89
1.64
Goals
25–56
41–29
xG per game
1.03–1.79
1.50–1.09
Home: points, xG per game
1.00, 1.00–1.98
1.44, 1.41–1.22
Away: points, xG per game
0.87, 1.06–1.60
1.93, 1.59–0.95
Manager
John Hughes (13)
Jack Ross (31)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Ross County
Hibernian
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−14%
+39%
+21%
−18%
Counter-attacks
+37%
−31%
−28%
+26%
Set pieces
−18%
+24%
+6%
−12%
Penalties
−62%
+126%
+51%
−6%
Headers
+15%
+10%
+37%
−30%
Left side
−18%
+21%
+6%
−10%
Centre
−4%
+50%
+13%
−34%
Right side
−24%
+11%
+26%
+16%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Matchups
Ross County attacking
Ross County createdHibernian concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side−18%+16%Centre−4%−34%Right side−24%−10%Open play−14%−18%Counter-attacks+37%+26%Set pieces−18%−12%Headers+15%−30%
Hibernian attacking
Hibernian createdRoss County concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side+6%+11%Centre+13%+50%Right side+26%+21%Open play+21%+39%Counter-attacks−28%−31%Set pieces+6%+24%Headers+37%+10%
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
Ross CountyHibernian
1.03xG1.50
1.79xG against1.09
48%Possession50%
9.9Shots11.9
14.2Shots against11.3
3.2Shots on target4.2
1.3Big chances1.9
15.0Touches in the opposition box21.4
379Passes395
70%Pass accuracy71%
4.3Corners5.6
45%Field tilt48%
35.6Final-third entries39.6
7.6Box entries10.8
14.2Passes per defensive action13.5
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Ross County
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
41
1.07
1.77
Ahead
15
0.53
1.92
Behind
33
1.21
1.77
Hibernian
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
38
1.56
1.02
Ahead
32
1.68
1.17
Behind
20
1.07
1.10
xG by period
Ross County
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.15
0.34
3–6
16–30
0.14
0.27
7–10
31–45
0.17
0.21
3–5
46–60
0.19
0.30
2–9
61–75
0.17
0.36
2–13
76–90
0.22
0.32
8–13
Hibernian
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.24
0.13
5–4
16–30
0.19
0.16
8–4
31–45
0.22
0.22
6–6
46–60
0.18
0.20
6–5
61–75
0.35
0.15
9–2
76–90
0.31
0.23
7–8
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts