Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 1–0 Celtic

Sunday 21 February 2021, 19:30 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 33 · Half-time 0–0

Ross County White 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyCeltic
Goals10
xG0.982.31
Expected Points0.472.33

Ross County 9%Draw 20%Celtic 71%

Most likely score 1–2, 16%. Final score 1–0, 2%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+1%6%10%7%3%2%11%5%2%4%8%5%2%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTWatson on for Morris, 42'Paton on for Spittal, 60'Tillson on for Kelly and Draper on for Gardyne, 69'Charles-Cook on for Andreu, 70'Laxalt on for Taylor, 9'Griffiths on for Rogic, 67'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 83'White 71'Celtic 2.31Ross County 0.9801230153045607590HTWatson on for Morris, 42'Paton on for Spittal, 60'Tillson on for Kelly and Draper on for Gardyne, 69'Charles-Cook on for Andreu, 70'Laxalt on for Taylor, 9'Griffiths on for Rogic, 67'Elyounoussi on for Christie, 83'White 71'2.310.98Ross CountyCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyCeltic

0.98 −0.01xG2.31 +0.38
1.87 +1.12xG on target0.99 −1.14
6 −3.9Shots20 +2.3
4 +1.0Shots on target4 −2.5
2 +0.8Big chances2 −0.6
5 −11Touches in the opposition box36 +7
27% −22Possession73% +7
252 −134Passes682 +100
59% −12Pass accuracy84% 0
10% −37Field tilt90% +17
18 −18Final-third entries86 +21
3 −4.8Box entries19 +2.1
18.5 +4.4Passes per defensive action15.5 +5.6
2 −2.3Corners9 +3.1
25 +12Tackles4 −9
22 +11Interceptions7 −3
32 +8Clearances3 −13
4 +0.8Saves3 +1.5
9 −6Fouls8 −4
1 −0.6Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Andreu 28', 0.27 xGWhite 65', 0.06 xGSpittal 27', 0.05 xGAndreu 3', 0.03 xGSpittal 47', 0.03 xGWhite 71', 0.54 xG, goal55%0.54 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.54 xG, 1 goal34%0.33 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals11%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Edouard 24', 0.69 xGChristie 36', 0.60 xGChristie 1', 0.16 xGChristie 83', 0.11 xGChristie 63', 0.08 xGRogic 62', 0.06 xGLaxalt 74', 0.06 xGBrown 75', 0.06 xGRogic 12', 0.05 xGChristie 48', 0.05 xGTurnbull 79', 0.05 xGGriffiths 90+3', 0.05 xGChristie 33', 0.04 xGLaxalt 52', 0.04 xGChristie 58', 0.04 xGElyounoussi 90', 0.04 xGMcGregor 19', 0.03 xGTurnbull 45+1', 0.03 xGGriffiths 82', 0.03 xGMcGregor 90', 0.03 xG37%0.85 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.85 xG, 0 goals40%0.92 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.92 xG, 0 goals6%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals14%0.32 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals3%0.08 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyCeltic

0.17 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.22 18 shots, 0 goals
0.81 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
72 min (77%) · Ross County 0.98, Celtic 1.87 xG
Ross County ahead
22 min (23%) · Ross County 0.00, Celtic 0.44 xG

Line-ups

123516320181972826LaidlawNaismithMorrisIacovittiTremarcoSpittalKellyLakinGardyneAndreuWhiteGoal42'60'69'69'70'Ross County 4-4-1-1John Hughes29165735318842141722BainKennyWelshAjerTaylorRogicBrownMcGregorTurnbullChristieEdouard9'67'83'Celtic 4-2-3-1Neil Lennon

Ross County substitutes

  • 42' Watson for Morris
  • 60' Paton for Spittal · 1 assist
  • 69' Draper for Gardyne
  • 69' Tillson for Kelly · yellow card 90+2'
  • 70' Charles-Cook for Andreu

Celtic substitutes

  • 9' Laxalt for Taylor
  • 67' Griffiths for Rogic
  • 83' Elyounoussi for Christie

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0751
NaismithRB900.000.1410.0327
MorrisCB420.000.0000.0122
IacovittiCB900.000.0000.02314
TremarcoLB900.000.0710.1148
SpittalRM600.080.0000.0117
KellyCM690.000.0110.0019
LakinCM900.000.1500.01412
GardyneLM690.000.0100.0223
AndreuAM700.300.0410.0615
WhiteST9010.600.0110.0003
WatsonDF480.000.0000.0007
PatonMF3010.000.2810.0121
DraperDF210.000.0000.0004
Tillson MF210.000.0000.0003
Charles-CookFW200.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0100
KennyRB900.000.0400.0454
WelshCB900.000.0410.26152
AjerCB900.000.0100.0522
TaylorLB90.000.0000.0110
RogicDM670.110.2010.3251
BrownDM900.060.0600.13132
McGregorRW900.060.2510.27190
TurnbullAM900.080.1340.2070
ChristieLW831.090.6410.2840
EdouardST900.690.5050.1130
LaxaltMF810.100.1230.14134
GriffithsFW230.080.010−0.0100
ElyounoussiFW70.040.0100.0420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Morris: 3 passesTremarco and White: 3 passesKelly and Andreu: 3 passesKelly and White: 3 passesLakin and Gardyne: 3 passesGardyne and Andreu: 3 passesIacovitti and Kelly: 4 passesSpittal and Andreu: 4 passesTremarco and Andreu: 5 passesNaismith and Spittal: 6 passesIacovitti and Tremarco: 6 passesTremarco and Gardyne: 6 passesSpittal and White: 6 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 7 passesTremarco and Lakin: 7 passesLaidlaw: 8 completed passesNaismith: 9 completed passesIacovitti: 12 completed passesMorris: 5 completed passesTremarco: 20 completed passesSpittal: 8 completed passesKelly: 8 completed passesLakin: 10 completed passesGardyne: 9 completed passesAndreu: 9 completed passesWhite: 8 completed passes123165320181972826LaidlawNaismithIacovittiMorrisTremarcoSpittalKellyLakinGardyneAndreuWhiteStarters until 42' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
GardyneTremarco6
TremarcoLakin6
TremarcoAndreu6
TremarcoWhite6
LaidlawWhite6

Celtic

FromToPasses
McGregorTurnbull27
WelshBrown26
BrownKenny22
McGregorLaxalt22
LaxaltMcGregor22

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

6+0.614+7.826+10.97−1.67+1.67−0.714+6.719+11.814+4.618+9.94−1.02−2.95+1.57+1.97+1.45+0.74+0.61−1.43−0.33−1.23+0.91−0.20−1.13+1.45+3.11+0.20−0.30−0.60−0.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Celtic

2−2.50−4.71−3.03−1.910+2.35−1.04−0.58−0.16+0.13−2.45+1.12−2.71−5.38+4.03−1.16+2.66+1.73−1.13+0.94+2.11−1.13+0.52−0.51+0.61+0.50−0.81+0.40−0.83−7.01−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.030.010.010.010.04−0.010.030.010.010.040.010.050.01−0.060.080.07LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.040.030.020.010.010.040.100.030.050.030.070.100.070.070.130.060.090.130.05−0.110.010.210.180.170.22LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackRoss County0.92 → 0.93Celtic1.81 → 1.77Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.62 → 1.57Celtic0.78 → 0.80

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th29%32%+3
Bottom46%23%−23
Hamilton Academical
11th33%27%−6
Bottom35%48%+13
Kilmarnock
11th26%25%−1
Bottom16%24%+8

From the forecast before the match (21 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyCeltic
Expected goals0.632.62
Win6%80%
Expected Points0.332.53
Clean sheet7%53%

Ross County 6%Draw 14%Celtic 80%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 44%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+4%8%4%3%2%7%8%7%5%3%2%2%3%2%2%10%13%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawCeltic win
Ross County
11th29%32%29%29%
Bottom46%23%39%49%
Hamilton Academical
11th33%27%30%35%
Bottom35%48%40%33%
Kilmarnock
11th26%25%27%26%
Bottom16%24%17%15%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–26 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.74–1.65
  2. W2–13 FebHamilton Academical (A)xG 1.44–0.49
  3. L1–227 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.86–1.56
  4. L0–523 JanRangers (A)xG 0.50–2.67
  5. W4–116 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.95–2.28
  6. L1–310 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.28–1.74

Celtic

  1. W1–017 FebAberdeen (H)xG 0.98–0.43
  2. W2–114 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.44–0.30
  3. W4–010 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.57–0.57
  4. W2–16 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.57–0.42
  5. W4–02 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 2.13–1.87
  6. L1–230 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.61–1.03

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyCeltic
Position12th2nd
Played2829
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠5–⁠1719–⁠7–⁠3
Points23 (0.82 per game)64 (2.21 per game)
Expected Points per game0.871.96
Goals21–⁠5364–⁠22
xG per game0.99–⁠1.791.93–⁠0.93
Home: points, xG per game0.71, 0.99–⁠1.972.20, 1.75–⁠0.87
Away: points, xG per game0.93, 1.00–⁠1.612.21, 2.13–⁠1.00
ManagerJohn Hughes (10)Neil Lennon (29)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackRoss County0.92, 10thCeltic1.81, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.62, 11thCeltic0.78, 2nd

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County attack: 0.92Celtic attack: 1.811.810.92CelticRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebRoss County defence: 1.62Celtic defence: 0.781.620.78

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+38%+69%−38%
Counter-attacks+47%−26%+124%−66%
Set pieces−28%+34%+9%−2%
Penalties−59%+103%+37%−2%
Headers+4%+19%−10%−20%
Left side−15%+22%+56%−24%
Centre−14%+55%+49%−26%
Right side−23%+9%+62%−42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdCeltic concededLeft side−15%−42%Centre−14%−26%Right side−23%−24%Open play−16%−38%Counter-attacks+47%−66%Set pieces−28%−2%Headers+4%−20%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRoss County concededLeft side+56%+9%Centre+49%+55%Right side+62%+22%Open play+69%+38%Counter-attacks+124%−26%Set pieces+9%+34%Headers−10%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyCeltic

0.99xG1.93
1.79xG against0.93
49%Possession66%
9.9Shots17.7
14.1Shots against8.6
3.0Shots on target6.5
1.2Big chances2.6
15.6Touches in the opposition box28.9
386Passes582
71%Pass accuracy84%
4.3Corners5.9
47%Field tilt73%
36.5Final-third entries65.4
7.8Box entries16.9
14.1Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.021.74
Ahead150.551.89
Behind361.151.81

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.680.95
Ahead402.210.99
Behind91.850.63

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.353–6
16–300.140.267–9
31–450.160.202–5
46–600.160.320–9
61–750.160.391–13
76–900.210.288–11

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.127–3
16–300.250.1311–3
31–450.330.097–3
46–600.410.1912–5
61–750.330.208–4
76–900.410.2019–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 23Doohan 5Randall 10Naismith 6Watson 4Donaldson 19Morris 8Watson 4Iacovitti 21Hjelde 3Grivosti 1Reid 17Tremarco 2Iacovitti 2Vigurs 11Draper 4McKay 3Paton 5Charles-Cook 5Gardyne 4Vigurs 10Tillson 8Draper 6Paton 13Kelly 9Lakin 4Hylton 6Stewart 6Gardyne 6Shaw 11Stewart 9McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-5-1 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 13Bain 11Hazard 5Frimpong 14Kenny 5Ajer 4Duffy 13Bitton 9Jullien 9Ajer 21Taylor 15Laxalt 9Edouard 2Soro 10Brown 8Christie 4McGregor 27Turnbull 3Rogic 2Christie 10Frimpong 4Brown 3Turnbull 10Rogic 4Ntcham 4Edouard 10Elyounoussi 8Taylor 3Ajeti 7Griffiths 7Edouard 64-2-3-1 in 12 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (12), 4-1-3-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-2-1-2 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2020Celtic2–0Ross CountyxG 2.15–0.29
12 September 2020Ross County0–5CelticxG 0.81–3.32

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Celtic won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–7 and xG 0.55–2.73 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McKay9906200.290.14
Stewart191,650210.370.06
Shaw121,189610.290.05
Gardyne141,250000.060.22

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard191,6441520.840.16
Griffiths7627520.490.17
Turnbull161,333650.240.38
Elyounoussi141,172720.490.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.