Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 1–2 Motherwell

Wednesday 27 January 2021, 18:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0

Ross County Shaw 14'

Motherwell Cole 51', Mugabi 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyMotherwell
Goals12
xG1.861.56
Expected Points1.581.10

Ross County 42%Draw 32%Motherwell 26%

Most likely score 2–2, 15%. Final score 1–2, 12%.

Motherwell goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+1%4%4%5%5%1%2%6%6%2%1%1%14%12%15%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTSpittal on for Charles-Cook and Gardyne on for Shaw, 68'McKay on for Vigurs, 77'Smith on for Long, 72'Lamie on for Cole, 85'McGinley on for Watt, 90+1'Shaw 14'Cole 51'Mugabi 72'Ross County 1.86Motherwell 1.5600.511.520153045607590HTSpittal on for Charles-Cook and Gardyne on for Shaw, 68'McKay on for Vigurs, 77'Smith on for Long, 72'Lamie on for Cole, 85'McGinley on for Watt, 90+1'Shaw 14'Cole 51'Mugabi 72'1.861.56Ross CountyMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyMotherwell

1.86 +0.91xG1.56 +0.46
1.86 +1.20xG on target1.67 +0.75
11 +1.6Shots12 +1.2
5 +2.2Shots on target6 +2.9
2 +0.8Big chances2 +0.7
28 +14Touches in the opposition box21 +1
47% −1Possession53% +7
291 −91Passes338 −13
66% −4Pass accuracy72% +2
52% +6Field tilt48% +10
36 0Final-third entries36 +4
16 +9.0Box entries9 −1.0
7.0 −8Passes per defensive action7.7 −7
5 +0.8Corners10 +5.1
18 +5Tackles12 −2
16 +6Interceptions10 −1
24 0Clearances28 +6
4 +0.9Saves4 +1.3
23 +8Fouls13 +1
2 +0.4Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Hylton 14', 0.39 xGMcKay 82', 0.11 xGShaw 62', 0.08 xGNaismith 90+2', 0.08 xGHylton 22', 0.07 xGPaton 71', 0.05 xGNaismith 74', 0.05 xGSpittal 77', 0.04 xGSpittal 78', 0.04 xGVigurs 7', 0.03 xGShaw 14', 0.92 xG, goal49%0.92 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.92 xG, 1 goal38%0.70 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.70 xG, 0 goals9%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals4%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Cole 12', 0.46 xGWatt 57', 0.08 xGWatt 51', 0.07 xGWatt 70', 0.06 xGMaguire 15', 0.05 xGCampbell 30', 0.05 xGLong 6', 0.04 xGCampbell 40', 0.04 xGLong 68', 0.04 xGCrawford 54', 0.03 xGCole 51', 0.59 xG, goalMugabi 72', 0.06 xG, goal67%1.05 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.05 xG, 1 goal13%0.21 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal10%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals8%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyMotherwell

0.42 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.42 10 shots, 1 goal
1.40 3 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.14 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
35 min (38%) · Ross County 1.47, Motherwell 0.76 xG
Ross County ahead
37 min (40%) · Ross County 0.07, Motherwell 0.80 xG
Motherwell ahead
20 min (22%) · Ross County 0.31, Motherwell 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12351641761124148LaidlawNaismithMorrisIacovittiHjeldeCharles-CookDraperVigursPatonHyltonShawYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal68'77'68'Ross County 4-5-1John Hughes1333163131568994432KellyO'DonnellMugabiGallagherCarrollMaguireCampbellCrawfordLongColeWattGoalGoal72'85'90+1'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

Ross County substitutes

  • 68' Spittal for Charles-Cook
  • 68' Gardyne for Shaw
  • 77' McKay for Vigurs

Motherwell substitutes

  • 72' Smith for Long
  • 85' Lamie for Cole
  • 90+1' McGinley for Watt

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0430
NaismithRB900.130.3610.2462
Morris CB900.000.0000.02211
IacovittiCB900.000.0200.03112
Hjelde LB900.000.061−0.0758
Charles-CookRM680.000.0220.0232
Draper CM900.000.1710.2554
Vigurs CM770.030.1000.08410
PatonCM900.050.0610.121010
Hylton LM900.460.0600.1351
ShawST6811.000.0000.0230
SpittalMF220.070.010−0.0101
GardyneMF220.000.2310.2150
McKayFW130.110.011−0.0200

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0340
O'DonnellRB900.000.1720.28186
MugabiCB9010.060.0000.0127
GallagherCB900.000.0100.04313
CarrollLB9010.000.0620.13146
MaguireCM900.050.0410.0414
CampbellCM900.090.0400.0114
CrawfordCM900.030.0310.0745
LongRW720.080.0810.0600
ColeST8511.050.0100.0012
WattLW900.200.1110.2144
SmithFW180.000.0200.0210
LamieDF50.000.0000.0001
McGinleyMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Charles-Cook and Vigurs: 3 passesCharles-Cook and Shaw: 3 passesDraper and Hylton: 3 passesCharles-Cook and Paton: 4 passesPaton and Draper: 4 passesPaton and Hylton: 4 passesNaismith and Hylton: 5 passesNaismith and Shaw: 5 passesNaismith and Draper: 6 passesHjelde and Vigurs: 6 passesPaton and Vigurs: 6 passesPaton and Shaw: 6 passesDraper and Shaw: 7 passesVigurs and Shaw: 7 passesHylton and Shaw: 7 passesNaismith and Charles-Cook: 8 passesHjelde and Paton: 9 passesNaismith and Vigurs: 12 passesLaidlaw: 8 completed passesNaismith: 23 completed passesIacovitti: 1 completed passesMorris: 5 completed passesHjelde: 14 completed passesCharles-Cook: 9 completed passesPaton: 15 completed passesDraper: 15 completed passesVigurs: 23 completed passesHylton: 11 completed passesShaw: 16 completed passes12316541724611148LaidlawNaismithIacovittiMorrisHjeldeCharles-CookPatonDraperVigursHyltonShawStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Gallagher: 4 passesO'Donnell and Carroll: 4 passesCole and Watt: 4 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 5 passesO'Donnell and Maguire: 5 passesMugabi and Campbell: 5 passesGallagher and Campbell: 5 passesCarroll and Cole: 5 passesCampbell and Crawford: 5 passesMaguire and Crawford: 5 passesKelly and Mugabi: 6 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 6 passesMaguire and Long: 6 passesCarroll and Campbell: 7 passesGallagher and Maguire: 8 passesGallagher and Crawford: 8 passesCarroll and Crawford: 8 passesO'Donnell and Crawford: 9 passesGallagher and Carroll: 9 passesO'Donnell and Long: 10 passesO'Donnell and Watt: 10 passesCarroll and Watt: 15 passesCarroll and Maguire: 17 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 30 passesKelly: 16 completed passesO'Donnell: 47 completed passesMugabi: 16 completed passesGallagher: 23 completed passesCarroll: 37 completed passesCampbell: 23 completed passesMaguire: 27 completed passesCrawford: 23 completed passesLong: 11 completed passesCole: 9 completed passesWatt: 12 completed passes1333163136158994432KellyO'DonnellMugabiGallagherCarrollCampbellMaguireCrawfordLongColeWattStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
VigursNaismith7
HjeldePaton7
DraperShaw6
NaismithDraper6
NaismithCharles-Cook6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
O'DonnellCampbell18
CampbellO'Donnell16
CarrollWatt13
CarrollMaguire9
MaguireCarroll9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

14+9.06−0.414−1.48−0.612+6.912+4.59+2.07−0.56−3.280.08+3.14−0.94+0.46+1.13−2.81−3.35+1.84+1.62−1.46+1.73+1.21−0.21−0.13+1.43+1.11+0.32+1.72+1.50−0.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Motherwell

4−0.78+1.518+3.210+1.74−2.25−3.04−1.811+4.06−1.03−2.03−2.45+1.37+1.65+0.15+1.71−2.33+0.53−0.24+0.44+1.82+0.40−0.81−0.54+1.90−0.92+1.54+3.11+0.62+1.11−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.020.020.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.010.030.030.040.040.050.010.100.030.02−0.010.120.01−0.070.080.220.23LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.030.010.010.020.030.070.010.010.010.100.05−0.010.080.020.07−0.010.140.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackRoss County0.92 → 0.94Motherwell1.04 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.59 → 1.60Motherwell1.36 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six<1%<1%0
11th37%41%+4
Bottom29%37%+8
Motherwell
Top six4%7%+3
11th19%12%−7
Bottom8%3%−5
Hamilton Academical
11th25%29%+4
Bottom58%55%−3
Dundee United
Top six30%28%−2
11th3%3%0

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyMotherwell
Expected goals1.171.37
Win31%41%
Expected Points1.221.51
Clean sheet25%31%

Ross County 31%Draw 28%Motherwell 41%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Motherwell goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%9%4%1%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawMotherwell win
Ross County
Top six<1%1%<1%<1%
11th37%32%37%41%
Bottom29%17%31%37%
Motherwell
Top six4%2%3%7%
11th19%26%21%12%
Bottom8%15%8%3%
Hamilton Academical
11th25%21%25%29%
Bottom58%63%58%55%
Dundee United
Top six30%31%31%28%
11th3%4%3%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–523 JanRangers (A)xG 0.50–2.67
  2. W4–116 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.95–2.28
  3. L1–310 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.28–1.74
  4. D1–12 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.81–1.57
  5. W2–030 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.69–1.42
  6. L0–226 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.54–1.79

Motherwell

  1. L0–223 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–3.10
  2. D1–117 JanRangers (H)xG 1.20–0.98
  3. D1–19 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.85–1.51
  4. L0–32 JanHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.86–0.87
  5. L0–230 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.40–1.78
  6. D1–126 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.82–0.67

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyMotherwell
Position10th11th
Played2523
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠5–⁠154–⁠7–⁠12
Points20 (0.80 per game)19 (0.83 per game)
Expected Points per game0.791.07
Goals18–⁠4819–⁠35
xG per game0.95–⁠1.861.10–⁠1.62
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 0.94–⁠2.040.75, 1.05–⁠1.59
Away: points, xG per game0.77, 0.97–⁠1.700.91, 1.16–⁠1.65
ManagerJohn Hughes (7)Graham Alexander (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackRoss County0.92, 9thMotherwell1.04, 7thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.59, 11thMotherwell1.36, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanRoss County attack: 0.92Motherwell attack: 1.041.040.92MotherwellRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanRoss County defence: 1.59Motherwell defence: 1.361.591.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%+41%−14%+12%
Counter-attacks−50%−57%−77%+129%
Set pieces−26%+36%−1%+28%
Penalties−55%+124%−27%+70%
Headers+6%+24%+1%+33%
Left side−18%+24%−29%+13%
Centre−27%+57%−6%+28%
Right side−18%+9%−10%+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdMotherwell concededLeft side−18%+18%Centre−27%+28%Right side−18%+13%Open play−19%+12%Counter-attacks−50%+129%Set pieces−26%+28%Headers+6%+33%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdRoss County concededLeft side−29%+9%Centre−6%+57%Right side−10%+24%Open play−14%+41%Counter-attacks−77%−57%Set pieces−1%+36%Headers+1%+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyMotherwell

0.95xG1.10
1.86xG against1.62
48%Possession46%
9.4Shots10.8
14.4Shots against13.4
2.8Shots on target3.1
1.2Big chances1.3
13.9Touches in the opposition box19.9
382Passes351
71%Pass accuracy70%
4.2Corners4.9
46%Field tilt38%
36.1Final-third entries31.9
7.0Box entries10.0
14.9Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.891.77
Ahead150.601.90
Behind361.171.95

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.161.61
Ahead261.061.63
Behind281.071.63

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.362–6
16–300.150.277–8
31–450.170.212–5
46–600.140.330–8
61–750.160.401–11
76–900.210.306–10

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.306–6
16–300.260.175–3
31–450.150.213–4
46–600.180.241–4
61–750.230.283–6
76–900.090.421–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 20Doohan 5Randall 10Watson 4Naismith 3Donaldson 19Morris 6Watson 4Iacovitti 19Hjelde 1Grivosti 1Reid 17Iacovitti 2Lakin 1Vigurs 9Draper 4Iacovitti 3Paton 4Charles-Cook 4Gardyne 4Paton 11Tillson 8Draper 5Vigurs 10Kelly 7Lakin 4Stewart 6Gardyne 6Hylton 4Shaw 9Stewart 9McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-3-3 (3), 4-5-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Chapman 4Archer 4O'Donnell 19Grimshaw 2Gallagher 1Gallagher 21O'Hara 4Mugabi 13Lamie 8Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Carroll 4Campbell 21Seedorf 1Long 1O'Hara 13Crawford 7Maguire 4Polworth 17Turnbull 2Donnelly 1Seedorf 5Lang 4Hastie 3Watt 12Long 5Cole 3Lang 7Watt 6Cole 54-3-3 in 12 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (12), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 October 2020Motherwell4–0Ross CountyxG 3.11–1.47
3 August 2020Ross County1–0MotherwellxG 1.33–1.96

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, Motherwell won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–4 and xG 1.40–2.54 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart191,650210.370.06
McKay8811100.250.11
Kelly9922020.090.21
Shaw101,022510.240.04

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole9700310.450.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt181,526330.260.11
Polworth171,448030.070.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.