Saturday 13 February 2021, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 29 · Half-time 0–3
Motherwell O'Hara 68' (pen) · O'Donnell sent off 18'
Hamilton Academical Anderson 7', Callachan 19' (pen), Ogboe 31', Moyo 64'
Post-match
Result and Expected Points
Measure
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Goals
1
4
xG
1.32
2.03
Non-penalty xG
0.53
1.24
Expected Points
0.79
1.92
Motherwell 17%Draw 29%Hamilton Academical 54%
Most likely score 1–2, 19%. Final score 1–4, 4%.
Own goals have no xG.
xG race
Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
MotherwellHamilton Academical
1.32 +0.20xG2.03 +1.19
0.53Non-penalty xG1.24
0.99 +0.03xG on target2.15 +1.31
11 +0.2Shots15 +6.8
1 −2.4Shots on target5 +2.3
1 −0.3Big chances3 +2.1
14 −5Touches in the opposition box24 +11
48% +3Possession52% +14
322 −25Passes335 +45
62% −7Pass accuracy66% +7
30% −6Field tilt70% +39
19 −12Final-third entries27 −1
8 −2.0Box entries16 +9.4
11.9 −3Passes per defensive action8.1 −7
7 +2.2Corners5 +1.2
10 −4Tackles22 +5
2 −9Interceptions15 +3
22 −1Clearances25 +2
1 −1.9Saves0 −3.6
13 +1Fouls18 +5
1 −1.1Offsides1 −0.6
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
7'19'31'64'68'
0–00–10–20–31–4
0'HTFT
Level
7 min (7%) · Motherwell 0.00, Hamilton Academical 0.10 xG
Hamilton Academical ahead
87 min (93%) · Motherwell 1.32, Hamilton Academical 1.93 xG
Line-ups
Motherwell substitutes
38'Magloire for Long · yellow card 82'
68'Johnston for Mugabi
Hamilton Academical substitutes
44'S. Martin for Trafford · yellow card 72'
62'Moyo for Ogboe · goal 64'
68'Stirling for Easton
68'Winter for Anderson
Players
Motherwell
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Kelly
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
5
1
O'Donnell
RB
18
0.00
0.01
0
0.00
1
2
Mugabi
CB
68
0.08
0.00
0
0.00
0
2
Lamie
CB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.04
3
4
Carroll
LB
90
0.00
0.06
3
0.13
4
4
Campbell
CM
90
0.00
0.04
0
0.08
3
8
O'Hara
CM
90
1
0.90
0.00
0
−0.01
1
3
Maguire
CM
90
0.03
0.39
4
0.43
4
1
Long
RW
38
0.04
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Watt
ST
90
0.13
0.03
0
0.04
4
1
Cole
LW
90
0.13
0.00
0
0.04
2
2
Magloire
DF
52
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
3
9
Johnston
DF
22
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
2
Hamilton Academical
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Fulton
GK
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
5
2
Hamilton
CB
90
0.06
0.42
1
0.26
5
9
A. Martin
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
2
11
Easton
CB
68
0.00
0.00
0
0.05
4
5
Hodson
RWB
90
0.00
0.17
3
0.23
8
6
Odoffin
CM
90
0.03
0.07
1
0.09
7
11
Trafford
CM
44
0.03
0.00
0
0.00
0
5
McMann
LWB
90
1
0.03
0.14
2
0.21
10
6
Callachan
AM
90
1
1
0.82
0.24
2
0.07
3
4
Anderson
ST
68
1
0.27
0.01
0
−0.10
0
1
Ogboe
ST
62
1
0.34
0.09
0
0.06
1
1
S. Martin
MF
46
0.00
0.03
0
0.03
1
4
Moyo
FW
28
1
0.45
0.01
0
−0.04
0
1
Stirling
DF
22
0.00
0.01
0
0.01
1
2
Winter
FW
22
0.00
0.00
0
−0.03
0
0
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Hamilton Academical
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Motherwell
From
To
Passes
Carroll
Watt
13
O'Hara
Magloire
12
Maguire
Carroll
8
Campbell
O'Hara
8
Magloire
Kelly
8
Hamilton Academical
From
To
Passes
Easton
McMann
9
McMann
Callachan
7
Callachan
McMann
7
Hodson
Odoffin
7
Odoffin
Hodson
7
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Motherwell
Against its average of 27 matches
Hamilton Academical
Against its average of 26 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Motherwell
Top six
8%
3%
−5
11th
3%
7%
+4
Bottom
1%
2%
+1
Hamilton Academical
11th
31%
35%
+4
Bottom
53%
37%
−16
Ross County
11th
39%
30%
−9
Bottom
38%
48%
+10
Kilmarnock
11th
21%
21%
0
Bottom
8%
12%
+4
From the forecast before the match (13 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Expected goals
1.51
1.04
Win
48%
25%
Expected Points
1.70
1.03
Clean sheet
35%
22%
Motherwell 48%Draw 27%Hamilton Academical 25%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.
From the forecast as it stood on 13 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Motherwell win
Draw
Hamilton Academical win
Motherwell
Top six
8%
13%
5%
3%
11th
3%
1%
3%
7%
Bottom
1%
<1%
1%
2%
Hamilton Academical
11th
31%
28%
32%
35%
Bottom
53%
62%
51%
37%
Ross County
11th
39%
45%
38%
30%
Bottom
38%
31%
39%
48%
Kilmarnock
11th
21%
21%
20%
21%
Bottom
8%
6%
9%
12%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Position
9th
12th
Played
27
26
Won, drawn, lost
7–7–13
5–5–16
Points
28 (1.04 per game)
20 (0.77 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.09
0.81
Goals
25–39
23–52
xG per game
1.12–1.58
0.84–2.08
Home: points, xG per game
0.92, 1.11–1.55
0.71, 0.65–1.95
Away: points, xG per game
1.14, 1.12–1.61
0.83, 1.05–2.23
Manager
Graham Alexander (7)
Brian Rice (26)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Motherwell
Hamilton Academical
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−13%
+11%
−49%
+94%
Counter-attacks
−68%
+196%
−92%
+98%
Set pieces
+6%
+20%
−12%
+26%
Penalties
−36%
+49%
+11%
−34%
Headers
average
+32%
−21%
+77%
Left side
−27%
+6%
−38%
+70%
Centre
−5%
+27%
−35%
+101%
Right side
−3%
+29%
−49%
+31%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Hamilton Academical createdMotherwell concededBelow averageAboveBelow averageAboveLeft side−38%+29%Centre−35%+27%Right side−49%+6%Open play−49%+11%Counter-attacks−92%+196%Set pieces−12%+20%Headers−21%+32%
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
MotherwellHamilton Academical
1.12xG0.84
1.58xG against2.08
45%Possession38%
10.8Shots8.2
13.9Shots against17.3
3.4Shots on target2.7
1.3Big chances0.9
19.4Touches in the opposition box13.2
347Passes290
70%Pass accuracy59%
4.8Corners3.8
36%Field tilt31%
31.3Final-third entries27.8
10.0Box entries6.6
14.8Passes per defensive action14.8
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Motherwell
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
36
1.24
1.59
Ahead
26
1.03
1.60
Behind
28
1.04
1.55
Hamilton Academical
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
40
0.78
1.97
Ahead
10
0.71
1.05
Behind
41
0.92
2.43
xG by period
Motherwell
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.19
0.32
6–8
16–30
0.27
0.17
7–3
31–45
0.14
0.19
3–4
46–60
0.20
0.24
2–5
61–75
0.23
0.26
6–6
76–90
0.09
0.41
1–13
Hamilton Academical
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.07
0.32
1–9
16–30
0.10
0.36
3–10
31–45
0.11
0.28
4–7
46–60
0.15
0.36
3–8
61–75
0.24
0.38
7–9
76–90
0.18
0.38
5–9
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts