Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–1 Hamilton Academical

Wednesday 17 February 2021, 18:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 12 · Half-time 0–0

St. Mirren Durmus 53'

Hamilton Academical Anderson 68'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Goals11
xG0.741.52
Expected Points0.732.00

St. Mirren 15%Draw 27%Hamilton Academical 58%

Most likely score 0–1, 17%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Hamilton Academical goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%6%1%6%11%5%1%2%5%4%2%1%17%14%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTFlynn on for Erwin, 77'Connolly on for Tait, 84'S. Martin on for A. Martin, 26'Hughes on for Trafford, 81'Moyo on for Anderson, 90'Durmus 53'Anderson 68'Hamilton Academical 1.52St. Mirren 0.7400.511.520153045607590HTFlynn on for Erwin, 77'Connolly on for Tait, 84'S. Martin on for A. Martin, 26'Hughes on for Trafford, 81'Moyo on for Anderson, 90'Durmus 53'Anderson 68'1.520.74St. MirrenHamilton Academical

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

0.74 −0.35xG1.52 +0.64
1.15 +0.24xG on target1.13 +0.24
16 +4.4Shots12 +3.6
4 +0.6Shots on target4 +1.2
0 −1.1Big chances2 +1.0
13 −5Touches in the opposition box21 +7
56% +10Possession44% +6
377 +21Passes299 +7
67% 0Pass accuracy55% −5
52% +10Field tilt48% +16
38 +5Final-third entries32 +4
5 −3.1Box entries11 +4.0
12.1 −2Passes per defensive action15.1 +1
6 +1.2Corners5 +1.2
8 −6Tackles17 −1
5 −7Interceptions13 +1
18 −2Clearances20 −3
3 −0.3Saves3 −0.5
15 +3Fouls7 −6
2 +0.3Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Tait 39', 0.12 xGTait 22', 0.09 xGObika 22', 0.07 xGTait 34', 0.07 xGDurmus 7', 0.05 xGTait 80', 0.05 xGMacPherson 86', 0.04 xGErwin 12', 0.03 xGErwin 35', 0.03 xGMcAllister 35', 0.03 xGDurmus 45+1', 0.03 xGMacPherson 60', 0.03 xGMacPherson 64', 0.03 xGErhahon 8', 0.02 xGDurmus 14', 0.02 xGDurmus 53', 0.04 xG, goal21%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals32%0.23 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals23%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal18%0.13 xGFurther out: 5 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals

Hamilton Academical

Ogboe 75', 0.54 xGAnderson 50', 0.34 xGOdoffin 45+1', 0.21 xGHodson 3', 0.07 xGOgboe 46', 0.07 xGTrafford 3', 0.06 xGCallachan 75', 0.05 xGOgboe 1', 0.04 xGCallachan 62', 0.04 xGCallachan 66', 0.03 xGOgboe 87', 0.03 xGAnderson 68', 0.05 xG, goal14%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 0 goals31%0.47 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals44%0.67 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.67 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal4%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

0.56 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.68 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.54 1 shot, 0 goals
0.18 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.31 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
76 min (84%) · St. Mirren 0.68, Hamilton Academical 1.41 xG
St. Mirren ahead
15 min (16%) · St. Mirren 0.06, Hamilton Academical 0.11 xG

Line-ups

12254214251110923AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMacPhersonErhahonDurmusMcAllisterObikaErwinYellow cardYellow cardGoal84'77'St. Mirren 3-4-1-2Jim Goodwin2361652721433497FultonHamiltonA. MartinEastonHodsonOdoffinTraffordMcMannCallachanOgboeAndersonGoal26'81'90'Hamilton Academical 3-4-1-2Brian Rice

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 77' Flynn for Erwin
  • 84' Connolly for Tait

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 26' S. Martin for A. Martin · yellow card 27'
  • 81' Hughes for Trafford
  • 90' Moyo for Anderson

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0100.0530
Fraser CB900.000.0310.15136
McCarthyCB900.000.0000.0654
Shaughnessy CB900.000.0300.0936
TaitRWB840.320.0000.0014
MacPhersonCM900.100.0710.0521
ErhahonCM900.020.0750.1364
DurmusLWB9010.150.0310.12107
McAllisterAM9010.030.0530.0531
ObikaST900.070.030−0.0421
ErwinST770.060.021−0.0110
FlynnMF130.000.0000.0120
ConnollyMF60.000.0000.0000

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK900.000.0100.0552
HamiltonCB900.000.0100.0335
A. MartinCB260.000.0000.0004
EastonCB900.000.0400.10210
HodsonRWB900.070.0200.0322
OdoffinCM900.210.0210.04311
TraffordCM810.060.0600.1067
McMannLWB900.000.4120.2365
CallachanAM900.120.5920.2652
OgboeST900.670.021−0.0310
AndersonST9010.390.0510.0410
S. Martin MF640.000.1710.0635
HughesMF90.000.0000.0001
MoyoFW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

McCarthy and McAllister: 4 passesMacPherson and Durmus: 4 passesDurmus and Obika: 4 passesMcAllister and Erwin: 4 passesMcCarthy and MacPherson: 5 passesTait and MacPherson: 5 passesErhahon and McAllister: 5 passesErhahon and Obika: 5 passesMcAllister and Obika: 5 passesAlnwick and Fraser: 6 passesFraser and Tait: 6 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 7 passesShaughnessy and Obika: 7 passesMcCarthy and Fraser: 7 passesFraser and Erhahon: 8 passesMacPherson and Obika: 8 passesMacPherson and Erwin: 8 passesFraser and Obika: 9 passesFraser and Erwin: 9 passesDurmus and McAllister: 10 passesFraser and MacPherson: 11 passesMacPherson and McAllister: 11 passesDurmus and Erwin: 12 passesErhahon and Durmus: 13 passesMacPherson and Erhahon: 14 passesAlnwick: 12 completed passesShaughnessy: 12 completed passesMcCarthy: 20 completed passesFraser: 36 completed passesTait: 8 completed passesMacPherson: 33 completed passesErhahon: 28 completed passesDurmus: 25 completed passesMcAllister: 19 completed passesObika: 16 completed passesErwin: 17 completed passes14522214251110923AlnwickShaughnessyMcCarthyFraserTaitMacPhersonErhahonDurmusMcAllisterObikaErwinStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hamilton Academical

Easton and McMann: 3 passesTrafford and McMann: 3 passesHamilton and Hodson: 4 passesEaston and Ogboe: 4 passesHodson and Odoffin: 4 passesCallachan and Anderson: 4 passesCallachan and Ogboe: 4 passesHodson and Callachan: 6 passesFulton: 3 completed passesA. Martin: 3 completed passesHamilton: 3 completed passesEaston: 8 completed passesHodson: 9 completed passesTrafford: 4 completed passesOdoffin: 6 completed passesMcMann: 3 completed passesCallachan: 8 completed passesAnderson: 4 completed passesOgboe: 7 completed passes2316652714233479FultonA. MartinHamiltonEastonHodsonTraffordOdoffinMcMannCallachanAndersonOgboeStarters until 26' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
ErhahonDurmus10
FraserMacPherson9
ErhahonMacPherson8
MacPhersonMcAllister7
ShaughnessyObika7

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
OgboeCallachan9
EastonOgboe8
CallachanHodson8
CallachanOgboe7
CallachanMcMann6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

5−0.14−1.712−1.84−2.47+2.27−1.45−2.75−2.36+0.92−2.48+2.76−0.14−0.63−0.65+1.63−1.41−1.00−1.72+0.91−1.02−0.30−1.10−0.20−0.90−0.40−0.64−3.65−3.23−3.40−3.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Hamilton Academical

5+0.54−2.911−6.34−3.23−2.810+2.65−2.315+8.06−2.75−1.79+4.15+0.27+3.34−1.27+0.15+0.32−1.62−0.95+1.87+2.72−1.00−1.71−0.73+1.92−0.20−0.80−0.40−0.60−0.30−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.040.010.020.020.030.030.010.030.030.020.030.050.05−0.060.060.060.070.070.06LessMore

Hamilton Academical

0.030.010.020.030.010.010.030.020.010.010.010.030.040.040.14−0.010.010.100.030.07−0.02−0.05−0.010.180.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.04 → 1.01Hamilton Acad…0.94 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.19 → 1.20Hamilton Acad…1.65 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six80%75%−5
11th<1%<1%0
Hamilton Academical
11th35%37%+2
Bottom34%32%−2
Ross County
11th29%29%0
Bottom49%50%+1
Dundee United
Top six8%11%+3
11th1%2%+1

From the forecast before the match (17 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Expected goals1.480.98
Win48%24%
Expected Points1.721.00
Clean sheet38%23%

St. Mirren 48%Draw 27%Hamilton Academical 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Hamilton Academical goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHamilton Academical win
St. Mirren
Top six80%90%75%64%
11th<1%<1%<1%1%
Hamilton Academical
11th35%35%37%33%
Bottom34%42%32%19%
Ross County
11th29%33%29%23%
Bottom49%44%50%59%
Dundee United
Top six8%4%11%15%
11th1%1%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D0–013 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.66–0.51
  2. L0–410 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.57–2.57
  3. W2–06 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.56–0.49
  4. L1–22 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.65–1.60
  5. W2–130 JanCeltic (A)xG 1.03–1.61
  6. W5–127 JanDundee United (A)xG 3.25–1.23

Hamilton Academical

  1. W4–113 FebMotherwell (A)xG 2.03–1.32
  2. D1–17 FebRangers (H)xG 1.37–0.74
  3. L1–23 FebRoss County (H)xG 0.49–1.44
  4. L0–227 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.58–2.23
  5. D0–016 JanDundee United (H)xG 0.67–0.63
  6. L0–29 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.43–1.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
Position7th11th
Played2727
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠126–⁠5–⁠16
Points33 (1.22 per game)23 (0.85 per game)
Expected Points per game1.250.85
Goals26–⁠3227–⁠53
xG per game1.09–⁠1.240.88–⁠2.05
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.17–⁠1.190.71, 0.65–⁠1.95
Away: points, xG per game1.43, 1.01–⁠1.291.00, 1.12–⁠2.16
ManagerJim Goodwin (27)Brian Rice (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackSt. Mirren1.04, 8thHamilton Acad…0.94, 10thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.19, 7thHamilton Acad…1.65, 12th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.04Hamilton Academical attack: 0.941.040.94Hamilton AcademicalSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.19Hamilton Academical defence: 1.651.651.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHamilton Academical
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+10%−45%+88%
Counter-attacks−12%−100%−93%+85%
Set pieces+1%−11%−12%+27%
Penalties−15%−15%+27%−15%
Headers−22%+9%−21%+76%
Left side−4%−2%−39%+67%
Centre−14%−16%−30%+97%
Right side−23%+31%−48%+28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−4%+28%Centre−14%+97%Right side−23%+67%Open play−20%+88%Counter-attacks−12%+85%Set pieces+1%+27%Headers−22%+76%

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−39%+31%Centre−30%−16%Right side−48%−2%Open play−45%+10%Counter-attacks−93%−100%Set pieces−12%−11%Headers−21%+9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHamilton Academical

1.09xG0.88
1.24xG against2.05
46%Possession38%
11.6Shots8.4
12.6Shots against17.1
3.4Shots on target2.8
1.1Big chances1.0
18.1Touches in the opposition box13.8
356Passes292
66%Pass accuracy60%
4.8Corners3.8
42%Field tilt32%
32.8Final-third entries27.9
8.1Box entries7.0
13.9Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.051.13
Ahead201.411.23
Behind300.941.40

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.781.96
Ahead121.061.14
Behind390.922.43

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.163–2
16–300.150.234–9
31–450.250.176–6
46–600.090.242–5
61–750.140.223–6
76–900.300.228–4

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.322–9
16–300.130.354–10
31–450.120.275–7
46–600.140.353–8
61–750.240.398–10
76–900.170.375–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 23Zlamal 3Lyness 1Fraser 22Tait 2Connolly 2McCarthy 26Shaughnessy 24Foley 3Tait 1Tait 19Durmus 3Fraser 2McAllister 8Connolly 7McGrath 3McGrath 19MacPhers… 7MacPhersonSheron 6Doyle-Ha… 13Doyle-HayesFraser 1Erwin 1Erhahon 19Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 9Mason 5Obika 3Obika 10Erwin 8Dennis 34-5-1 in 8 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (8), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 22Gourlay 5Hodson 19Hamilton 3Odoffin 2A. Martin 14Odoffin 10Stirling 3Easton 12Want 10McMann 1McMann 21Odoffin 2Munro 2Callachan 6Hamilton 6Hodson 3Odoffin 11Callachan 8Collar 2S. Martin 13Trafford 6Stirling 6Callachan 7McMann 4Templeton 4Moyo 18Anderson 3Templeton 2Ogboe 13Winter 8Stirling 34-4-2 in 9 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 August 2020Hamilton Academical0–1St. MirrenxG 0.83–1.97

1 league meeting since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Hamilton Academical won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–0 and xG 1.97–0.83 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika161,542500.340.05
McGrath262,110510.230.15
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin10984200.240.06

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan221,952730.320.09
Templeton7516120.150.23
Ogboe131,174310.200.03
Mimnaugh5514010.020.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.