Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Hamilton Academical 0–2 Livingston

Wednesday 23 December 2020, 18:00 · Fountain of Youth Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 0–0

Livingston Guthrie 52', Mullin 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston
Goals02
xG0.052.20
Expected Points0.072.87

Hamilton Academical <1%Draw 6%Livingston 93%

Most likely score 0–2, 33%. Final score 0–2, 33%.

Livingston goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+5%21%23%9%2%1%2%1%33%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTJohnson on for Hughes, 62'Gourlay on for Fulton, 63'Winter on for Moyo, 67'Hamilton on for Easton, 86'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Forrest, 78'Guthrie 52'Mullin 90'Livingston 2.20Hamilton Academical 0.0501230153045607590HTJohnson on for Hughes, 62'Gourlay on for Fulton, 63'Winter on for Moyo, 67'Hamilton on for Easton, 86'Emmanuel-Thomas on for Forrest, 78'Guthrie 52'Mullin 90'2.200.05Hamilton AcademicalLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston

0.05 −0.91xG2.20 +0.95
0.00 −1.02xG on target1.70 +0.60
2 −6.8Shots16 +5.9
0 −2.9Shots on target3 +0.2
0 −0.9Big chances3 +1.5
40% 0Possession60% +12
292 −7Passes438 +88
53% −7Pass accuracy67% +6
16% −18Field tilt84% +33
19 −11Final-third entries39 +5
0 −6.8Box entries12 +3.0
23.3 +9Passes per defensive action18.8 +7
3 −0.7Corners7 +1.9
9 −9Tackles10 −7
9 −2Interceptions2 −10
28 +6Clearances8 −11
1 −2.9Saves0 −2.1
14 +1Fouls11 −4
3 +1.3Offsides2 +0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hamilton Academical

Johnson 83', 0.03 xGMunro 50', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals40%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Guthrie 25', 0.53 xGRobinson 79', 0.30 xGPittman 4', 0.10 xGMullin 84', 0.08 xGGuthrie 33', 0.07 xGForrest 42', 0.06 xGSibbald 25', 0.05 xGRobinson 25', 0.04 xGForrest 71', 0.04 xGRobinson 9', 0.03 xGForrest 11', 0.03 xGHolt 30', 0.03 xGGuthrie 51', 0.03 xGForrest 73', 0.03 xGGuthrie 51', 0.70 xG, goalMullin 90+1', 0.07 xG, goal56%1.24 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.24 xG, 1 goal32%0.70 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.70 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals9%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston

0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.51 12 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.69 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (57%) · Hamilton Academical 0.02, Livingston 1.68 xG
Livingston ahead
39 min (43%) · Hamilton Academical 0.03, Livingston 0.52 xG

Line-ups

234165272153211820FultonStirlingMartinEastonHodsonOdoffinHughesMcMannMunroMimnaughMoyoYellow cardYellow card63'86'62'67'Hamilton Academical 3-4-2-1Brian Rice3225271218101481117StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieSerranoHoltSibbaldMullinPittmanForrestRobinsonGoalGoal78'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Hamilton Academical substitutes

  • 62' Johnson for Hughes
  • 63' Gourlay for Fulton
  • 67' Winter for Moyo
  • 86' Hamilton for Easton

Livingston substitutes

  • 78' Emmanuel-Thomas for Forrest

Players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
FultonGK630.000.0000.0001
Stirling CB900.000.0010.0565
MartinCB900.000.0000.0238
EastonCB860.000.0000.0446
HodsonRWB900.000.0000.0016
Odoffin CM900.000.0000.0129
HughesCM620.000.0000.0000
McMannLWB900.000.0000.0242
MunroAM900.020.0000.0012
MimnaughAM900.000.0100.0216
MoyoST670.000.000−0.0103
JohnsonMF280.030.0000.0353
GourlayGK270.000.0000.0000
WinterFW230.000.0000.0010
HamiltonDF40.000.0000.0220

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0340
DevlinRB900.000.4920.2481
FitzwaterCB900.000.0300.0361
GuthrieCB9011.340.0000.0454
SerranoLB900.000.0210.09103
HoltDM9010.030.6810.2784
SibbaldDM900.050.0510.0663
MullinRW9010.150.1820.3041
PittmanAM900.100.0520.0551
ForrestLW780.160.1120.2271
RobinsonST900.380.012−0.0412
Emmanuel-ThomasFW120.000.0100.0320

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hamilton Academical

Fulton and Easton: 3 passesFulton and Moyo: 3 passesEaston and Munro: 3 passesMcMann and Munro: 3 passesMcMann and Moyo: 3 passesOdoffin and Moyo: 3 passesMimnaugh and Munro: 3 passesMunro and Moyo: 3 passesFulton and Stirling: 4 passesStirling and Hodson: 4 passesEaston and Mimnaugh: 5 passesMcMann and Mimnaugh: 5 passesFulton and Martin: 6 passesEaston and McMann: 6 passesEaston and Moyo: 8 passesFulton: 12 completed passesMartin: 10 completed passesStirling: 9 completed passesEaston: 20 completed passesHodson: 5 completed passesMcMann: 12 completed passesOdoffin: 8 completed passesHughes: 4 completed passesMimnaugh: 9 completed passesMunro: 6 completed passesMoyo: 5 completed passes231645273215182120FultonMartinStirlingEastonHodsonMcMannOdoffinHughesMimnaughMunroMoyoStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Robinson: 6 passesSerrano and Sibbald: 6 passesDevlin and Pittman: 7 passesFitzwater and Holt: 7 passesGuthrie and Forrest: 7 passesDevlin and Holt: 8 passesGuthrie and Holt: 8 passesSibbald and Mullin: 8 passesHolt and Forrest: 10 passesMullin and Forrest: 10 passesStryjek and Guthrie: 11 passesDevlin and Sibbald: 12 passesStryjek and Fitzwater: 13 passesSerrano and Holt: 14 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 15 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 16 passesFitzwater and Guthrie: 17 passesSerrano and Forrest: 19 passesStryjek: 15 completed passesDevlin: 35 completed passesFitzwater: 42 completed passesGuthrie: 33 completed passesSerrano: 39 completed passesHolt: 39 completed passesSibbald: 23 completed passesMullin: 14 completed passesPittman: 16 completed passesForrest: 30 completed passesRobinson: 11 completed passes3225271218101481117StryjekDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieSerranoHoltSibbaldMullinPittmanForrestRobinsonStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hamilton Academical

FromToPasses
EastonMoyo8
EastonMcMann5
MartinStirling5
EastonMimnaugh4
MimnaughMcMann4

Livingston

FromToPasses
SerranoGuthrie13
SerranoForrest10
GuthrieStryjek10
HoltSerrano9
GuthrieFitzwater9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hamilton Academical

5−0.23−4.525+8.98+1.47+1.46−1.93−4.54−2.89+0.17−0.13−2.15+0.54+1.87+2.17−0.15+0.82−2.14+1.01−2.43−1.42−1.10−1.60−1.81−0.11−0.92+1.60−0.30−0.50−0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Livingston

4−0.82−3.27−3.82−3.07+2.28−0.14−2.87−2.66+0.35−0.51−3.06+1.13−3.39+4.82−2.330.03−0.62−2.22−1.32−0.61−0.10−1.60−2.43+1.30−0.52+1.42+1.50−1.02−5.32−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hamilton Academical

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.020.030.03LessMore

Livingston

0.010.020.020.010.020.020.010.020.050.040.040.060.010.050.030.010.19−0.03−0.050.080.160.270.29LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHamilton Acad…0.99 → 0.93Livingston1.09 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.89 → 1.88Livingston1.24 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%<1%−1
11th32%32%0
Bottom42%48%+6
Livingston
Top six39%47%+8
11th4%2%−2
Bottom1%<1%−1
Ross County
11th32%36%+4
Bottom47%43%−4
St. Mirren
Top six37%35%−2
11th6%6%0
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston
Expected goals1.041.68
Win23%52%
Expected Points0.941.80
Clean sheet19%35%

Hamilton Academical 23%Draw 25%Livingston 52%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Livingston goalsHamilton Academical goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%6%5%2%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%11%9%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHamilton Academical winDrawLivingston win
Hamilton Academical
Top six1%3%1%<1%
11th32%33%32%32%
Bottom42%29%41%48%
Livingston
Top six39%27%32%47%
11th4%8%5%2%
Bottom1%3%1%<1%
Ross County
11th32%24%31%36%
Bottom47%54%47%43%
St. Mirren
Top six37%40%37%35%
11th6%6%7%6%
Bottom2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hamilton Academical

  1. W2–019 DecRoss County (A)xG 0.80–0.91
  2. L0–412 DecHibernian (H)xG 0.17–3.14
  3. W1–05 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.56–0.85
  4. D1–125 NovAberdeen (H)xG 0.49–0.52
  5. L1–221 NovDundee United (A)xG 1.44–0.73
  6. L0–88 NovRangers (A)xG 0.00–4.94

Livingston

  1. W2–112 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–1.05
  2. W2–05 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.20–0.42
  3. L0–121 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.46–0.39
  4. D1–16 NovRoss County (A)xG 1.07–0.62
  5. L0–231 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.70–1.40
  6. L0–225 OctRangers (A)xG 0.87–1.39

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston
Position11th7th
Played1717
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠2–⁠115–⁠3–⁠9
Points14 (0.82 per game)18 (1.06 per game)
Expected Points per game0.861.37
Goals18–⁠4018–⁠25
xG per game0.96–⁠2.261.25–⁠1.18
Home: points, xG per game0.62, 0.70–⁠2.221.11, 1.07–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.19–⁠2.311.00, 1.45–⁠1.05
ManagerBrian Rice (17)David Martindale (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackHamilton Acad…0.99, 8thLivingston1.09, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hamilton Acad…1.89, 12thLivingston1.24, 6th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecHamilton Academical attack: 0.99Livingston attack: 1.091.090.99LivingstonHamilton AcademicalDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecHamilton Academical defence: 1.89Livingston defence: 1.241.891.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−56%+98%−6%−21%
Counter-attacks−100%+220%−100%−70%
Set pieces+13%+38%+6%+19%
Penalties+43%−43%−14%−14%
Headers−7%+69%−1%+7%
Left side−27%+103%−26%−30%
Centre−29%+104%+14%−1%
Right side−63%+30%−19%−10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hamilton Academical attacking

Hamilton Academical createdLivingston concededLeft side−27%−10%Centre−29%−1%Right side−63%−30%Open play−56%−21%Counter-attacks−100%−70%Set pieces+13%+19%Headers−7%+7%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdHamilton Academical concededLeft side−26%+30%Centre+14%+104%Right side−19%+103%Open play−6%+98%Counter-attacks−100%+220%Set pieces+6%+38%Headers−1%+69%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Hamilton AcademicalLivingston

0.96xG1.25
2.26xG against1.18
40%Possession48%
8.8Shots10.1
17.3Shots against10.0
2.9Shots on target2.8
0.9Big chances1.5
12.2Touches in the opposition box18.8
299Passes350
61%Pass accuracy61%
3.7Corners5.1
34%Field tilt51%
30.2Final-third entries34.4
6.8Box entries9.0
14.5Passes per defensive action11.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hamilton Academical

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.912.10
Ahead60.741.14
Behind491.022.53

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.021.06
Ahead131.281.30
Behind341.521.29

xG by period

Hamilton Academical

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.400–8
16–300.110.402–10
31–450.090.284–6
46–600.160.312–4
61–750.320.476–7
76–900.220.404–5

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.123–2
16–300.220.261–9
31–450.140.262–5
46–600.210.215–7
61–750.280.175–0
76–900.210.172–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hamilton Academical

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTFulton 16Gourlay 1Hodson 10Odoffin 2Stirling 2Odoffin 10A. Martin 5Stirling 2Want 10Easton 4McMann 1McMann 12Munro 2Odoffin 1Callachan 6L. Smith 3Hodson 2Callachan 7Odoffin 3Trafford 2S. Martin 13Mimnaugh 4Collar 2Templeton 4McMann 3Smith 3Moyo 11Templeton 2Callachan 1Ogboe 9Winter 5Stirling 24-4-2 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcCrorie 10Stryjek 7Devlin 15Robinson 1Ambrose 1Brown 6Ambrose 6Fitzwater 4Guthrie 16Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 10Lawson 2Ambrose 2Bartley 14Pittman 2Sibbald 8Holt 7Forrest 2Robinson 5Fitzwater 3Pittman 3Pittman 11Bartley 3Devlin 1Forrest 11Sibbald 3Holt 1Emmanuel-Thomas 4Tiffoney 3Dykes 34-2-3-1 in 8 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 September 2020Livingston1–2Hamilton AcademicalxG 2.43–0.78

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hamilton Academical won 1, Livingston won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 2–1 and xG 0.78–2.43 per game.

Key players

Hamilton Academical

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Callachan151,332510.360.05
Templeton7516120.150.23
Odoffin161,420300.200.05
Ogboe9866210.190.03

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest131,150300.180.22
Robinson9837100.160.09
Pittman171,514310.190.05
Devlin161,396100.100.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.