Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Motherwell 3–1 Livingston

Saturday 6 March 2021, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 31 · Half-time 1–0

Motherwell Cole 31' (pen), 59', Long 69'

Livingston Fitzwater 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellLivingston
Goals31
xG1.801.14
Non-penalty xG1.011.14
Expected Points1.890.81

Motherwell 53%Draw 30%Livingston 17%

Most likely score 2–1, 18%. Final score 3–1, 8%.

Livingston goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%7%8%2%8%9%2%4%8%4%1%2%18%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTLong on for Watt, 23'Gallagher on for Long, 86'McGinley on for Roberts, 90+2'Forrest on for Lawson and Pittman on for Taylor-Sinclair, 56'Tiffoney on for Bartley, 72'Cole 31' (pen)Cole 59'Long 69'Fitzwater 60'Motherwell 1.80Livingston 1.1400.511.520153045607590HTLong on for Watt, 23'Gallagher on for Long, 86'McGinley on for Roberts, 90+2'Forrest on for Lawson and Pittman on for Taylor-Sinclair, 56'Tiffoney on for Bartley, 72'Cole 31' (pen)Cole 59'Long 69'Fitzwater 60'1.801.14MotherwellLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellLivingston

1.80 +0.71xG1.14 0.00
1.01Non-penalty xG1.14
2.24 +1.34xG on target2.09 +1.07
14 +3Shots10 0
6 +2.8Shots on target4 +1.1
2 +0.7Big chances1 −0.5
26 +8Touches in the opposition box17 0
47% +2Possession53% +6
282 −63Passes318 −21
43% −26Pass accuracy51% −9
48% +12Field tilt52% +3
20 −10Final-third entries26 −6
5 −4.8Box entries6 −2.1
15.0 0Passes per defensive action9.0 −3
2 −3.0Corners3 −1.9
13 −1Tackles11 −5
7 −4Interceptions12 0
24 0Clearances18 0
3 +0.1Saves3 +0.9
9 −3Fouls20 +6
4 +2.0Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Watt 14', 0.06 xGCarroll 59', 0.06 xGCole 80', 0.06 xGRoberts 2', 0.05 xGWatt 5', 0.05 xGCole 15', 0.05 xGLong 54', 0.05 xGO'Donnell 2', 0.04 xGWatt 8', 0.04 xGCole 40', 0.04 xGLong 76', 0.04 xGLong 69', 0.43 xG, goalCole 59', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals68%0.69 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.69 xG, 2 goals23%0.23 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals4%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Poplatnik 41', 0.08 xGFitzwater 41', 0.08 xGMullin 45+1', 0.07 xGForrest 71', 0.07 xGGuthrie 57', 0.06 xGGuthrie 67', 0.05 xGFitzwater 85', 0.05 xGFitzwater 42', 0.04 xGGuthrie 25', 0.03 xGFitzwater 60', 0.62 xG, goal54%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.62 xG, 1 goal31%0.35 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals9%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellLivingston

0.80 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
0.21 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces1.07 9 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
31 min (33%) · Motherwell 1.07, Livingston 0.03 xG
Motherwell ahead
62 min (67%) · Motherwell 0.73, Livingston 1.11 xG

Line-ups

133340436815394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollCampbellCrawfordMaguireRobertsColeWattYellow cardGoalGoal90+2'23'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander125272933614101215McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieTaylor-SinclairLawsonBartleyMullinSibbaldSerranoPoplatnikYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card56'56'72'Livingston 4-2-3-1David Martindale

Motherwell substitutes

  • 23' Long for Watt · goal 69', yellow card 78', off 86'
  • 86' Gallagher for Long
  • 90+2' McGinley for Roberts

Livingston substitutes

  • 56' Pittman for Taylor-Sinclair
  • 56' Forrest for Lawson
  • 72' Tiffoney for Bartley

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0430
O'Donnell RB900.040.0610.0765
MagloireCB900.000.0100.0325
LamieCB900.000.0000.0217
CarrollLB900.060.0820.0646
CampbellCM900.000.0110.0003
CrawfordCM900.000.0100.0235
MaguireCM9010.000.0610.0828
RobertsRW900.050.0110.0042
ColeST90210.990.032−0.0311
WattLW230.150.1600.1220
Long FW6310.520.1000.0862
GallagherDF40.000.0000.0000
McGinleyMF00.000.000––0

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0431
Devlin RB900.000.0120.0444
FitzwaterCB9010.800.0000.0235
Guthrie CB9010.130.0010.04512
Taylor-SinclairLB560.000.0810.0934
LawsonDM560.000.000−0.0110
Bartley DM720.000.0100.0113
MullinRW900.070.2320.0112
Sibbald AM900.000.1920.0862
SerranoLW900.000.0300.1366
PoplatnikST900.080.0400.1223
PittmanMF340.000.0410.0321
ForrestFW340.070.0000.0001
TiffoneyFW180.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Campbell and Roberts: 3 passesCarroll and Watt: 4 passesO'Donnell and Roberts: 8 passesKelly: 0 completed passesO'Donnell: 10 completed passesMagloire: 0 completed passesLamie: 2 completed passesCarroll: 5 completed passesCrawford: 2 completed passesMaguire: 1 completed passesCampbell: 5 completed passesRoberts: 3 completed passesCole: 2 completed passesWatt: 3 completed passes133340438156394432KellyO'DonnellMagloireLamieCarrollCrawfordMaguireCampbellRobertsColeWattStarters until 23' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

McCrorie and Devlin: 3 passesMcCrorie and Guthrie: 3 passesMcCrorie and Poplatnik: 3 passesDevlin and Guthrie: 3 passesDevlin and Bartley: 3 passesDevlin and Mullin: 3 passesGuthrie and Taylor-Sinclair: 3 passesGuthrie and Sibbald: 3 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 3 passesTaylor-Sinclair and Bartley: 3 passesTaylor-Sinclair and Sibbald: 3 passesTaylor-Sinclair and Serrano: 3 passesBartley and Serrano: 3 passesMullin and Serrano: 3 passesSibbald and Serrano: 3 passesSerrano and Poplatnik: 3 passesDevlin and Fitzwater: 4 passesGuthrie and Bartley: 4 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesFitzwater: 6 completed passesGuthrie: 16 completed passesTaylor-Sinclair: 8 completed passesLawson: 5 completed passesBartley: 10 completed passesMullin: 7 completed passesSibbald: 8 completed passesSerrano: 8 completed passesPoplatnik: 5 completed passes125272933614101215McCrorieDevlinFitzwaterGuthrieTaylor-SinclairLawsonBartleyMullinSibbaldSerranoPoplatnikStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
O'DonnellRoberts10
CampbellRoberts5
O'DonnellCampbell5
CarrollMaguire5
LongRoberts5

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinPoplatnik7
DevlinFitzwater6
DevlinMullin5
McCroriePoplatnik5
MullinSerrano4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

0−4.44−2.76−3.02−4.57+0.55−2.78+1.813+5.38+0.56+0.74−1.02−1.810+4.74−0.73−0.48+4.82−0.65+2.21−2.51−1.14+2.22+1.21−0.41−1.01+0.30−0.510.00−0.54+3.210−6.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Livingston

11+5.93−1.97−3.48+2.650.09+0.57+0.210+3.58+0.614+5.06+0.46+0.610+6.011+5.77+0.64−0.11−3.51−2.06+2.11−3.72−1.22−0.40−1.11−0.53+0.21−0.40−0.51+0.30−0.60−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.030.010.010.030.020.010.020.010.030.010.020.010.02−0.01−0.02−0.06−0.010.040.060.050.050.040.050.05LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.040.010.030.030.030.01−0.010.010.020.020.010.040.030.030.020.060.070.030.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackMotherwell1.00 → 1.04Livingston1.04 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.37 → 1.37Livingston1.10 → 1.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
11th4%1%−3
Bottom1%<1%−1
Livingston
Top six>99%99%−1

From the forecast before the match (6 March 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellLivingston
Expected goals1.001.28
Win28%42%
Expected Points1.141.57
Clean sheet28%37%

Motherwell 28%Draw 29%Livingston 42%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Livingston goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%10%8%4%1%5%7%4%2%2%2%1%11%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 March 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawLivingston win
Motherwell
11th4%1%4%7%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Livingston
Top six>99%99%>99%>99%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W2–027 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.00–1.70
  2. D0–024 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.39–0.30
  3. L0–320 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.03–3.04
  4. L1–413 FebHamilton Academical (H)xG 1.32–2.03
  5. W1–010 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 0.95–1.00
  6. L1–26 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.42–1.57

Livingston

  1. L0–13 MarRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.73
  2. D1–120 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.29–0.71
  3. L0–313 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.93–1.93
  4. L1–26 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.86–1.78
  5. W2–02 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.56–0.36
  6. D0–030 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.98–1.38

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellLivingston
Position9th5th
Played3130
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠8–⁠1511–⁠7–⁠12
Points32 (1.03 per game)40 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.081.33
Goals28–⁠4636–⁠36
xG per game1.09–⁠1.611.14–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game0.80, 1.06–⁠1.681.20, 1.03–⁠1.41
Away: points, xG per game1.25, 1.13–⁠1.541.47, 1.24–⁠0.90
ManagerGraham Alexander (11)David Martindale (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.14AttackMotherwell1.00, 7thLivingston1.04, 6thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.37, 10thLivingston1.10, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell attack: 1.00Livingston attack: 1.041.041.00LivingstonMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarMotherwell defence: 1.37Livingston defence: 1.101.371.10

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+11%−9%−18%
Counter-attacks−72%+157%−91%−22%
Set pieces+6%+28%+10%+14%
Penalties−25%+70%−42%−3%
Headers−9%+41%+11%+10%
Left side−26%+8%−18%−36%
Centre−8%+29%+6%+1%
Right side−8%+24%−17%average

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdLivingston concededLeft side−26%averageCentre−8%+1%Right side−8%−36%Open play−16%−18%Counter-attacks−72%−22%Set pieces+6%+14%Headers−9%+10%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdMotherwell concededLeft side−18%+24%Centre+6%+29%Right side−17%+8%Open play−9%+11%Counter-attacks−91%+157%Set pieces+10%+28%Headers+11%+41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellLivingston

1.09xG1.14
1.61xG against1.16
45%Possession48%
10.6Shots10.0
14.0Shots against9.7
3.2Shots on target2.9
1.3Big chances1.5
18.5Touches in the opposition box17.2
345Passes339
69%Pass accuracy60%
5.0Corners4.9
36%Field tilt50%
30.3Final-third entries31.6
9.8Box entries8.1
14.5Passes per defensive action12.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.251.45
Ahead250.981.65
Behind301.001.76

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level490.951.10
Ahead161.200.94
Behind251.461.42

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.296–9
16–300.260.188–5
31–450.130.233–6
46–600.190.243–6
61–750.240.277–7
76–900.110.391–13

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.118–3
16–300.230.223–11
31–450.100.262–9
46–600.200.209–9
61–750.200.125–0
76–900.260.259–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Kelly 11Chapman 4O'Donnell 26Grimshaw 2Johnston 1Gallagher 22O'Hara 4Magloire 3Mugabi 18Lamie 15Carroll 12Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Campbell 28Long 1Seedorf 1Crawford 14O'Hara 14Grimshaw 1Polworth 18Maguire 12Turnbull 2Long 6Seedorf 5Lang 4Watt 13Cole 9Long 6Watt 13Lang 7Cole 64-3-3 in 20 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (20), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTStryjek 18McCrorie 12Devlin 27Ambrose 1Robinson 1Ambrose 12Fitzwater 9Guthrie 27Brown 8Taylor-Sinclair 4Serrano 17Brown 5Ambrose 2Bartley 22Pittman 4Serrano 1Holt 17Sibbald 10Lawson 3Mullin 11Robinson 6Fitzwater 4Pittman 20Bartley 4Holt 1Forrest 16Sibbald 8Robinson 2Emmanuel-Thomas 6Robinson 5Reilly 34-2-3-1 in 16 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (16), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 October 2020Livingston0–2MotherwellxG 0.70–1.40
12 August 2020Motherwell2–2LivingstonxG 0.50–2.03

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 1, Livingston won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 4–2 and xG 0.95–1.36 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole171,409620.480.02
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt262,195350.240.12
Polworth181,538030.070.23

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest181,514410.190.22
Emmanuel-Thomas7841200.280.05
Robinson161,473410.200.08
Mullin131,088230.080.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.