Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Celtic 2–1 Motherwell

Saturday 6 February 2021, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 28 · Half-time 1–0

Celtic Welsh 2', Edouard 50'

Motherwell Campbell 66'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticMotherwell
Goals21
xG1.570.42
Expected Points2.240.51

Celtic 66%Draw 25%Motherwell 9%

Most likely score 1–0, 22%. Final score 2–1, 8%.

Motherwell goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+13%5%1%11%2%8%2%9%4%3%1%22%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTGriffiths on for Ajeti, 68'Soro on for Brown and Laxalt on for Taylor, 70'Elyounoussi on for Turnbull, 80'O'Hara on for Crawford and Roberts on for Watt, 68'Smith on for Maguire, 81'Welsh 2'Edouard 50'Campbell 66'Celtic 1.57Motherwell 0.4200.511.520153045607590HTGriffiths on for Ajeti, 68'Soro on for Brown and Laxalt on for Taylor, 70'Elyounoussi on for Turnbull, 80'O'Hara on for Crawford and Roberts on for Watt, 68'Smith on for Maguire, 81'Welsh 2'Edouard 50'Campbell 66'1.570.42CelticMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticMotherwell

1.57 −0.41xG0.42 −0.73
1.35 −0.81xG on target0.16 −0.84
22 +4Shots7 −4
9 +2.4Shots on target5 +1.6
1 −1.7Big chances0 −1.4
45 +16Touches in the opposition box14 −6
66% −1Possession34% −12
625 +42Passes322 −26
89% +4Pass accuracy76% +7
83% +10Field tilt17% −21
77 +10Final-third entries31 −1
26 +9Box entries11 +1
7.9 −1.9Passes per defensive action26.8 +12.2
5 −1.0Corners3 −2.0
15 +2Tackles10 −4
13 +3.3Interceptions10 −0.8
17 +2Clearances20 −3
3 +1.5Saves7 +4.3
16 +4Fouls8 −4
1 −0.3Offsides1 −1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Edouard 46', 0.38 xGEdouard 21', 0.09 xGAjeti 61', 0.09 xGAjeti 56', 0.08 xGEdouard 4', 0.07 xGKenny 18', 0.07 xGRogic 19', 0.07 xGAjeti 16', 0.06 xGRogic 40', 0.06 xGTurnbull 47', 0.06 xGRogic 59', 0.06 xGElyounoussi 88', 0.06 xGKenny 67', 0.05 xGRogic 80', 0.05 xGRogic 10', 0.04 xGTurnbull 6', 0.03 xGTurnbull 14', 0.03 xGTurnbull 61', 0.03 xGMcGregor 70', 0.03 xGElyounoussi 86', 0.03 xGWelsh 2', 0.07 xG, goalEdouard 51', 0.05 xG, goal6%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals70%1.10 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.10 xG, 1 goal8%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals10%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal6%0.09 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Cole 77', 0.09 xGSmith 90+3', 0.09 xGLong 45', 0.07 xGCole 64', 0.05 xGMugabi 65', 0.05 xGSmith 90+4', 0.03 xGCampbell 66', 0.03 xG, goal21%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals42%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals12%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals26%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticMotherwell

1.41 20 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.30 5 shots, 1 goal
0.16 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.13 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
2 min (2%) · Celtic 0.07, Motherwell 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
92 min (98%) · Celtic 1.49, Motherwell 0.42 xG

Line-ups

29165735314818421022BainKennyWelshAjerTaylorTurnbullBrownRogicMcGregorAjetiEdouardGoalGoal70'80'70'68'Celtic 4-1-2-1-2Neil Lennon13331643681594432KellyO'DonnellMugabiLamieCarrollCampbellCrawfordMaguireLongColeWattGoalYellow cardYellow card68'81'68'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

Celtic substitutes

  • 68' Griffiths for Ajeti
  • 70' Laxalt for Taylor
  • 70' Soro for Brown
  • 80' Elyounoussi for Turnbull

Motherwell substitutes

  • 68' O'Hara for Crawford
  • 68' Roberts for Watt
  • 81' Smith for Maguire · yellow card 90+1'

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0100
KennyRB900.120.4230.42214
WelshCB9010.070.0100.0749
AjerCB900.000.0100.1024
TaylorLB700.000.3240.45203
TurnbullDM8010.150.3030.1442
BrownCM700.000.0300.0644
RogicCM900.290.1710.1751
McGregorAM9010.030.1620.1744
AjetiST680.230.102−0.1802
EdouardST9010.590.3000.1330
GriffithsFW220.000.0210.0100
LaxaltMF200.000.0000.0214
SoroMF200.000.0010.0117
ElyounoussiFW100.090.0100.0113

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0770
O'DonnellRB9010.000.0410.16128
MugabiCB900.050.0000.0224
LamieCB900.000.0610.05311
CarrollLB900.000.0900.0782
CampbellCM9010.030.0900.1134
CrawfordCM680.000.0000.0028
MaguireCM810.000.0410.0116
LongRW900.070.3520.1850
Cole ST900.150.0100.0333
Watt LW680.000.0100.0020
O'HaraMF220.000.0000.0000
RobertsFW220.000.0610.0810
Smith FW90.120.0000.1601

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Kenny and McGregor: 7 passesKenny and Brown: 8 passesTurnbull and Rogic: 8 passesRogic and Ajeti: 8 passesTaylor and Rogic: 9 passesMcGregor and Rogic: 9 passesTurnbull and Edouard: 9 passesWelsh and Brown: 11 passesMcGregor and Edouard: 13 passesTaylor and Edouard: 14 passesBrown and McGregor: 15 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 15 passesAjer and McGregor: 16 passesBrown and Turnbull: 17 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 19 passesKenny and Turnbull: 23 passesTaylor and Brown: 24 passesKenny and Rogic: 26 passesAjer and Taylor: 27 passesKenny and Welsh: 28 passesAjer and Welsh: 31 passesAjer and Brown: 32 passesTaylor and McGregor: 40 passesBain: 10 completed passesKenny: 50 completed passesAjer: 63 completed passesWelsh: 48 completed passesTaylor: 68 completed passesBrown: 59 completed passesMcGregor: 62 completed passesTurnbull: 48 completed passesRogic: 36 completed passesEdouard: 22 completed passesAjeti: 12 completed passes29163557384214182210BainKennyAjerWelshTaylorBrownMcGregorTurnbullRogicEdouardAjetiStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Motherwell

Kelly and Watt: 4 passesO'Donnell and Crawford: 4 passesCampbell and Long: 4 passesKelly and Mugabi: 5 passesO'Donnell and Cole: 5 passesMugabi and Lamie: 5 passesMugabi and Crawford: 5 passesLamie and Carroll: 5 passesCarroll and Long: 5 passesCarroll and Cole: 5 passesCrawford and Campbell: 5 passesMaguire and Watt: 6 passesKelly and Lamie: 7 passesO'Donnell and Long: 7 passesLong and Watt: 7 passesCarroll and Watt: 8 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 9 passesMugabi and Campbell: 9 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 10 passesCarroll and Maguire: 15 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 17 passesKelly: 19 completed passesO'Donnell: 34 completed passesMugabi: 19 completed passesLamie: 16 completed passesCarroll: 23 completed passesCrawford: 14 completed passesMaguire: 16 completed passesCampbell: 25 completed passesLong: 16 completed passesCole: 3 completed passesWatt: 11 completed passes13331643815694432KellyO'DonnellMugabiLamieCarrollCrawfordMaguireCampbellLongColeWattStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
WelshKenny24
McGregorTaylor22
WelshAjer19
AjerWelsh19
TaylorMcGregor18

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CampbellO'Donnell17
O'DonnellCampbell12
MaguireCarroll9
CarrollMaguire9
O'DonnellMugabi7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

6+1.43−1.811+1.32−1.73−2.06−1.910+4.26+1.88+1.46−1.910+4.25−0.65+1.58+3.65−1.25+1.02−2.36+2.46+1.83−1.13+0.94+2.07+5.24+1.61−1.61+0.60−0.60−0.81+0.41+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Motherwell

1−3.511+4.523+7.66−2.65−1.26−0.414+6.011+5.010+2.45−2.33−2.01−4.34+0.22−3.42−3.02−1.31−2.22−0.61−2.12−1.61−1.31−0.60−0.80−1.54+1.90−0.80−0.60−1.00−0.40−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.030.010.020.010.030.040.060.030.060.030.120.020.040.040.130.120.100.040.14−0.01−0.050.100.120.35LessMore

Motherwell

0.030.050.040.010.010.010.010.030.090.040.010.030.010.020.06−0.010.090.010.060.34LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackCeltic1.84 → 1.82Motherwell1.07 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.84 → 0.83Motherwell1.39 → 1.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six9%7%−2
11th7%8%+1
Bottom2%2%0
St. Mirren
Top six75%76%+1
Ross County
11th43%42%−1
Bottom21%22%+1

From the forecast before the match (6 February 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticMotherwell
Expected goals2.240.79
Win70%11%
Expected Points2.290.52
Clean sheet46%11%

Celtic 70%Draw 19%Motherwell 11%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Motherwell goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%3%1%3%4%1%7%3%5%4%2%2%2%1%1%10%9%12%10%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 February 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawMotherwell win
Motherwell
Top six9%7%11%20%
11th7%8%4%2%
Bottom2%2%1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six75%76%73%67%
Ross County
11th43%42%46%46%
Bottom21%22%20%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W4–02 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 2.13–1.87
  2. L1–230 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.61–1.03
  3. W2–027 JanHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.23–0.58
  4. D2–220 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–0.77
  5. D0–016 JanLivingston (H)xG 0.42–1.22
  6. D1–111 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.97–1.83

Motherwell

  1. W2–13 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.90–0.97
  2. W2–127 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.56–1.86
  3. L0–223 JanAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–3.10
  4. D1–117 JanRangers (H)xG 1.20–0.98
  5. D1–19 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.85–1.51
  6. L0–32 JanHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.86–0.87

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticMotherwell
Position2nd9th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost15–⁠7–⁠36–⁠7–⁠12
Points52 (2.08 per game)25 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.911.11
Goals55–⁠2023–⁠37
xG per game1.98–⁠1.011.15–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game2.08, 1.82–⁠0.930.92, 1.11–⁠1.55
Away: points, xG per game2.08, 2.15–⁠1.101.08, 1.19–⁠1.67
ManagerNeil Lennon (25)Graham Alexander (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.19AttackCeltic1.84, 2ndMotherwell1.07, 6thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.84, 2ndMotherwell1.39, 9th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebCeltic attack: 1.84Motherwell attack: 1.071.841.07MotherwellCelticDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0SepOctNovDecJanFebCeltic defence: 0.84Motherwell defence: 1.391.390.84

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+69%−35%−9%+9%
Counter-attacks+157%−60%−66%+215%
Set pieces+15%+3%+5%+23%
Penalties+39%+16%−31%+62%
Headers−3%−18%−5%+29%
Left side+60%−17%−23%+5%
Centre+51%−23%−4%+29%
Right side+64%−40%+1%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdMotherwell concededLeft side+60%+26%Centre+51%+29%Right side+64%+5%Open play+69%+9%Counter-attacks+157%+215%Set pieces+15%+23%Headers−3%+29%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdCeltic concededLeft side−23%−40%Centre−4%−23%Right side+1%−17%Open play−9%−35%Counter-attacks−66%−60%Set pieces+5%+3%Headers−5%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticMotherwell

1.98xG1.15
1.01xG against1.61
67%Possession46%
18.0Shots10.9
8.4Shots against13.4
6.6Shots on target3.4
2.7Big chances1.4
29.1Touches in the opposition box20.2
583Passes348
84%Pass accuracy70%
6.0Corners5.0
73%Field tilt38%
66.5Final-third entries31.7
17.0Box entries10.1
9.8Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.711.00
Ahead362.381.14
Behind111.740.65

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.261.66
Ahead271.051.59
Behind271.121.55

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.145–3
16–300.270.1510–3
31–450.360.107–3
46–600.380.2010–4
61–750.350.217–3
76–900.390.2116–4

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.336–7
16–300.280.177–3
31–450.140.203–4
46–600.200.232–4
61–750.240.274–6
76–900.090.411–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBarkas 13Bain 7Hazard 5Frimpong 14Ajer 4Elhamed 3Duffy 12Bitton 9Jullien 9Ajer 17Taylor 11Laxalt 9Edouard 2Soro 9Brown 7Christie 4McGregor 24Turnbull 2Ntcham 2Christie 9Frimpong 4Forrest 3Turnbull 8Rogic 4Ntcham 4Edouard 8Elyounoussi 8Taylor 3Griffiths 7Ajeti 5Edouard 44-2-3-1 in 11 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-1-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Kelly 5Chapman 4O'Donnell 21Grimshaw 2Mugabi 1Gallagher 22O'Hara 4Mugabi 15Lamie 9Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Carroll 6Campbell 23Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 13Crawford 9Maguire 6Polworth 17Turnbull 2Donnelly 1Seedorf 5Lang 4Long 3Watt 12Long 5Cole 5Watt 8Lang 7Cole 54-3-3 in 14 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (14), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 November 2020Motherwell1–4CelticxG 1.66–2.84
30 August 2020Celtic3–0MotherwellxG 2.06–0.22

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 2, Motherwell won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 7–1 and xG 2.45–0.94 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edouard151,3031120.820.16
Griffiths7586520.530.18
Turnbull121,011440.230.41
Elyounoussi141,134720.500.11

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Cole11875520.570.02
Watt201,697330.270.12
Lang121,038310.360.03
Polworth171,448030.070.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.