Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Livingston 0–2 Motherwell

Saturday 31 October 2020, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 13 · Half-time 0–2

Motherwell Lang 22', Watt 45'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonMotherwell
Goals02
xG0.701.40
Expected Points0.712.00

Livingston 14%Draw 29%Motherwell 57%

Most likely score 0–1, 21%. Final score 0–2, 15%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%15%4%4%11%3%2%5%4%1%1%21%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Mullin, 60'Lawson on for Sibbald, 64'Tiffoney on for Holt, 73'White on for Cole, 46'Long on for Lang, 82'Lang 22'Watt 45'Motherwell 1.40Livingston 0.7000.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Mullin, 60'Lawson on for Sibbald, 64'Tiffoney on for Holt, 73'White on for Cole, 46'Long on for Lang, 82'Lang 22'Watt 45'1.400.70LivingstonMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonMotherwell

0.70 −0.70xG1.40 +0.31
0.35 −0.82xG on target1.55 +0.50
13 +2Shots8 −4
3 +0.2Shots on target4 +1.4
0 −1.6Big chances2 +0.9
24 +4Touches in the opposition box13 −12
56% +8Possession44% −5
336 −16Passes261 −116
60% −2Pass accuracy53% −21
62% +11Field tilt38% −3
38 +3Final-third entries20 −14
8 −2Box entries7 −3
10.1 −3Passes per defensive action21.7 +8
5 −0.8Corners5 −1.3
11 −4Tackles9 −4
12 +1Interceptions8 −3
20 0Clearances29 +9
2 −0.2Saves3 +0.6
14 −1Fouls12 −2
1 −0.8Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Devlin 8', 0.11 xGGuthrie 61', 0.09 xGBrown 85', 0.08 xGGuthrie 86', 0.07 xGTiffoney 75', 0.06 xGHolt 25', 0.05 xGPittman 55', 0.05 xGEmmanuel-Thomas 52', 0.04 xGTiffoney 85', 0.04 xGTiffoney 90+3', 0.04 xGSerrano 61', 0.03 xGForrest 90+3', 0.03 xGEmmanuel-Thomas 20', 0.02 xG16%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals50%0.35 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals26%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

O'Hara 45+2', 0.09 xGPolworth 11', 0.06 xGWatt 90+1', 0.06 xGCole 39', 0.05 xGWatt 69', 0.05 xGWatt 19', 0.04 xGWatt 45+2', 0.73 xG, goalLang 22', 0.32 xG, goal56%0.78 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.78 xG, 1 goal6%0.09 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals27%0.37 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal11%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonMotherwell

0.36 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.43 3 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.34 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.91 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (23%) · Livingston 0.12, Motherwell 0.42 xG
Motherwell ahead
73 min (77%) · Livingston 0.58, Motherwell 0.98 xG

Line-ups

32232712861814910StryjekDevlinBrownGuthrieSerranoPittmanBartleyHoltMullinEmmanuel-ThomasSibbaldYellow cardYellow card73'60'64'Livingston 4-3-3Gary Holt3433731561519293244ChapmanO'DonnellO'HaraGallagherMcGinleyCampbellMaguirePolworthLangWattColeYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card82'46'Motherwell 4-3-3Stephen Robinson

Livingston substitutes

  • 60' Forrest for Mullin
  • 64' Lawson for Sibbald
  • 73' Tiffoney for Holt

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' White for Cole
  • 82' Long for Lang

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0100.0671
DevlinRB900.110.0420.0747
BrownCB900.080.1800.0448
Guthrie CB900.150.000−0.05313
SerranoLB900.030.0710.1786
PittmanCM900.050.010−0.0101
Bartley CM900.000.0210.0225
HoltCM730.050.0200.0441
MullinRW600.000.0100.0120
Emmanuel-ThomasST900.050.0400.0211
SibbaldLW640.000.0510.0722
ForrestFW300.030.1310.0120
LawsonMF260.000.2120.1770
TiffoneyFW170.140.0000.0100

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ChapmanGK900.000.0000.0221
O'DonnellRB900.000.0300.0455
O'HaraCB900.090.0000.02212
GallagherCB900.000.0100.03314
McGinleyLB900.000.0110.0335
CampbellCM900.000.0610.0752
Maguire CM900.000.0100.0202
PolworthCM900.060.0520.0253
LangRW8210.320.0410.0831
Watt ST9010.880.0100.0332
ColeLW4610.050.0110.0410
WhiteFW440.000.000−0.0203
LongFW80.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Stryjek and Pittman: 3 passesStryjek and Emmanuel-Thomas: 3 passesBrown and Bartley: 3 passesGuthrie and Emmanuel-Thomas: 3 passesPittman and Holt: 3 passesSerrano and Holt: 4 passesSerrano and Emmanuel-Thomas: 4 passesEmmanuel-Thomas and Sibbald: 4 passesStryjek and Brown: 5 passesDevlin and Holt: 5 passesBrown and Guthrie: 5 passesSerrano and Pittman: 5 passesSerrano and Sibbald: 7 passesHolt and Mullin: 7 passesDevlin and Brown: 8 passesDevlin and Mullin: 8 passesGuthrie and Serrano: 9 passesStryjek: 10 completed passesDevlin: 19 completed passesBrown: 13 completed passesGuthrie: 14 completed passesSerrano: 20 completed passesBartley: 8 completed passesPittman: 13 completed passesHolt: 16 completed passesMullin: 8 completed passesEmmanuel-Thomas: 7 completed passesSibbald: 10 completed passes32232712681814910StryjekDevlinBrownGuthrieSerranoBartleyPittmanHoltMullinEmmanuel-ThomasSibbaldStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

O'Hara and Campbell: 3 passesCampbell and Polworth: 3 passesLang and Watt: 3 passesGallagher and McGinley: 4 passesGallagher and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Watt: 4 passesChapman and Gallagher: 5 passesO'Donnell and Watt: 5 passesO'Hara and Gallagher: 5 passesMcGinley and Watt: 5 passesMaguire and Campbell: 5 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 6 passesO'Donnell and Lang: 6 passesMcGinley and Polworth: 6 passesChapman and O'Hara: 7 passesO'Hara and Polworth: 8 passesChapman: 5 completed passesO'Donnell: 13 completed passesO'Hara: 17 completed passesGallagher: 10 completed passesMcGinley: 12 completed passesMaguire: 8 completed passesCampbell: 10 completed passesPolworth: 15 completed passesLang: 6 completed passesWatt: 7 completed passesCole: 3 completed passes3433731515619293244ChapmanO'DonnellO'HaraGallagherMcGinleyMaguireCampbellPolworthLangWattColeStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
SerranoGuthrie9
GuthrieBrown7
BrownDevlin7
HoltMullin6
SerranoSibbald6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinleyWatt10
PolworthO'Hara7
O'HaraChapman6
MaguireCampbell5
O'DonnellLang5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

7+2.05−0.612+0.26+1.25+0.65−2.56−1.810+3.18−0.26+0.57+1.86+1.93−1.87+1.52−1.64−0.22−1.15+1.82−2.33−0.23+0.20−1.11−0.40−2.83+1.50−0.70−0.81+0.60−0.85−3.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Motherwell

7+4.18+2.618+5.25−2.48+1.54−4.34−3.35−1.19+3.013+6.35−1.34+0.54−1.14−1.03−0.90−3.12−0.23+0.54+0.73+0.32+0.50−0.71−0.64+2.61−0.20−0.70−1.10−0.60−1.11−5.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.030.020.010.040.070.020.030.01−0.040.020.02−0.070.090.100.100.08LessMore

Motherwell

0.020.020.010.030.010.010.030.020.010.010.040.050.010.010.02−0.01−0.03−0.010.060.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.23AttackLivingston1.17 → 1.13Motherwell1.10 → 1.11Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.29 → 1.31Motherwell1.28 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six40%28%−12
11th5%7%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Motherwell
Top six45%59%+14
11th5%3%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six48%46%−2
11th4%5%+1

From the forecast before the match (31 October 2020): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonMotherwell
Expected goals1.271.20
Win37%34%
Expected Points1.411.31
Clean sheet30%28%

Livingston 37%Draw 28%Motherwell 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Motherwell goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 31 October 2020: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawMotherwell win
Livingston
Top six40%52%38%28%
11th5%3%4%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Motherwell
Top six45%34%43%59%
11th5%6%5%3%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six48%49%50%46%
11th4%4%4%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–225 OctRangers (A)xG 0.87–1.39
  2. L1–317 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 1.53–2.27
  3. W2–12 OctDundee United (A)xG 3.09–0.06
  4. W2–026 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.54–1.11
  5. L2–319 SepCeltic (A)xG 1.35–1.58
  6. L1–212 SepHamilton Academical (H)xG 2.43–0.78

Motherwell

  1. W4–024 OctRoss County (H)xG 3.11–1.47
  2. L1–527 SepRangers (H)xG 0.38–2.59
  3. W3–020 SepAberdeen (A)xG 1.75–0.70
  4. W1–012 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.26–1.02
  5. L0–330 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.22–2.06
  6. L0–122 AugHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.73–2.22

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonMotherwell
Position9th8th
Played1210
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠2–⁠73–⁠2–⁠5
Points11 (0.92 per game)11 (1.10 per game)
Expected Points per game1.351.05
Goals13–⁠2011–⁠13
xG per game1.40–⁠1.351.09–⁠1.58
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 1.22–⁠1.581.17, 1.02–⁠1.70
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 1.58–⁠1.121.00, 1.21–⁠1.39
ManagerGary Holt (12)Stephen Robinson (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.23AttackLivingston1.17, 5thMotherwell1.10, 6thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.29, 7thMotherwell1.28, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctLivingston attack: 1.17Motherwell attack: 1.101.171.10MotherwellLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctLivingston defence: 1.29Motherwell defence: 1.281.291.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+7%−11%−31%−4%
Counter-attacks−100%−67%−100%+62%
Set pieces−4%+21%−15%+22%
Penalties+17%+17%+41%+88%
Headers+2%+15%−3%+19%
Left side−31%−33%−22%−4%
Centre+35%+18%−33%+19%
Right side−30%−14%−26%−8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdMotherwell concededLeft side−31%−8%Centre+35%+19%Right side−30%−4%Open play+7%−4%Counter-attacks−100%+62%Set pieces−4%+22%Headers+2%+19%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdLivingston concededLeft side−22%−14%Centre−33%+18%Right side−26%−33%Open play−31%−11%Counter-attacks−100%−67%Set pieces−15%+21%Headers−3%+15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonMotherwell

1.40xG1.09
1.35xG against1.58
48%Possession49%
10.8Shots11.8
10.9Shots against11.9
2.8Shots on target2.6
1.6Big chances1.1
20.5Touches in the opposition box24.5
352Passes377
63%Pass accuracy74%
5.8Corners6.3
51%Field tilt41%
35.0Final-third entries34.0
10.0Box entries10.2
12.7Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.171.31
Ahead131.091.27
Behind371.751.42

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level400.971.60
Ahead261.311.62
Behind241.081.49

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.133–2
16–300.280.311–7
31–450.180.262–4
46–600.200.232–5
61–750.270.203–0
76–900.260.222–2

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.294–2
16–300.140.161–2
31–450.150.292–2
46–600.200.151–1
61–750.350.322–3
76–900.070.371–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcCrorie 10Stryjek 2Devlin 10Ambrose 1Robinson 1Ambrose 6Fitzwater 2Guthrie 11Brown 3Taylor-Sinclair 2Serrano 7Ambrose 2McMillan 2Bartley 11Sibbald 6Holt 5Forrest 2Robinson 5Pittman 3Fitzwater 3Pittman 8Holt 1Bartley 1Forrest 7Sibbald 2Holt 1Tiffoney 3Dykes 3Lokotsch 24-2-3-1 in 5 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 10O'Donnell 7Grimshaw 2Gallagher 1Gallagher 8O'Hara 1Mugabi 6Lamie 5Lamie 4McGinley 3Grimshaw 3Campbell 9Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 8Maguire 1Polworth 6Turnbull 2Donnelly 1Seedorf 3Mugabi 2O'Hara 1Long 4Watt 3White 2Lang 3Watt 2Turnbull 24-3-3 in 3 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 August 2020Motherwell2–2LivingstonxG 0.50–2.03

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Livingston won 0, Motherwell won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 2.03–0.50 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Forrest9788300.250.26
Pittman121,080200.250.06
Devlin11946000.090.15
Robinson8708000.130.08

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Polworth6490010.070.18
O'Hara10856200.200.01
Long6526110.160.02
Gallagher10900010.030.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.