Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

Ross County 4–1 Aberdeen

Saturday 16 January 2021, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 24 · Half-time 2–1

Ross County Shaw 1', 84', Lakin 20', Hylton 90'

Aberdeen Iacovitti 45' (og)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyAberdeen
Goals41
xG0.952.28
Expected Points0.452.36

Ross County 8%Draw 19%Aberdeen 72%

Most likely score 1–2, 16%. Final score 4–1, <1%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+1%7%9%3%1%9%11%4%4%8%5%2%1%1%13%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDraper on for Charles-Cook, 65'McKay on for Shaw, 88'Logan on for Taylor, 31'Ngwenya on for Hayes, 64'Anderson on for Main, 76'Shaw 1'Lakin 20'Shaw 84'Hylton 90'Iacovitti 45' (og)Aberdeen 2.28Ross County 0.9501230153045607590HTDraper on for Charles-Cook, 65'McKay on for Shaw, 88'Logan on for Taylor, 31'Ngwenya on for Hayes, 64'Anderson on for Main, 76'Shaw 1'Lakin 20'Shaw 84'Hylton 90'Iacovitti 45' (og)2.280.95Ross CountyAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.95 −0.02xG2.28 +1.08
2.29 +1.68xG on target1.19 −0.07
9 −0.6Shots15 +4.2
5 +2.3Shots on target5 +1.4
2 +0.8Big chances2 +0.6
10 −5Touches in the opposition box33 +14
41% −8Possession59% +9
232 −162Passes311 −94
55% −17Pass accuracy68% −5
39% −9Field tilt61% +12
19 −18Final-third entries41 +5
5 −2.3Box entries14 +4.5
11.2 −3Passes per defensive action9.1 −5
6 +1.8Corners6 +1.5
15 +2Tackles9 −3
16 +6Interceptions8 −3
36 +12Clearances16 −5
5 +2.1Saves1 −1.0
20 +6Fouls9 −6
3 +1.5Offsides1 −0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Lakin 28', 0.05 xGLakin 45', 0.04 xGLakin 37', 0.03 xGShaw 75', 0.03 xGMcKay 89', 0.03 xGHylton 90+3', 0.33 xG, goalLakin 20', 0.32 xG, goalShaw 84', 0.07 xG, goalShaw 1', 0.06 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 3 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals39%0.37 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.37 xG, 1 goal8%0.08 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Main 7', 0.76 xGKennedy 34', 0.68 xGWright 38', 0.17 xGHoban 39', 0.10 xGWright 62', 0.09 xGWright 55', 0.08 xGFerguson 33', 0.07 xGWright 35', 0.07 xGFerguson 50', 0.06 xGFerguson 41', 0.04 xGHoban 45+1', 0.04 xGCosgrove 2', 0.03 xGKennedy 4', 0.03 xGCosgrove 21', 0.03 xGCosgrove 16', 0.02 xG63%1.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.44 xG, 0 goals21%0.49 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals13%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals2%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.55 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.93 10 shots, 0 goals
0.33 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.35 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Ross County 0.06, Aberdeen 0.00 xG
Ross County ahead
93 min (99%) · Ross County 0.89, Aberdeen 2.28 xG

Line-ups

123516224111917814LaidlawNaismithMorrisIacovittiRandallPatonVigursLakinCharles-CookShawHyltonYellow cardOwn goalGoalYellow cardGoalGoalYellow cardGoal65'88'Ross County 4-3-3John Hughes131441740193325916LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHayesMcCrorieFergusonKennedyWrightMainCosgrove31'64'76'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes

Ross County substitutes

  • 65' Draper for Charles-Cook · 1 assist
  • 88' McKay for Shaw

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 31' Logan for Taylor
  • 64' Ngwenya for Hayes
  • 76' Anderson for Main

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0112
NaismithRB900.000.0100.01410
Morris CB900.000.0000.01114
IacovittiCB900.000.0000.0227
RandallLB900.000.0600.21313
PatonCM9010.000.1240.06106
VigursCM900.000.0100.0488
LakinCM9010.430.010−0.0126
Charles-Cook RW650.000.0100.0101
Shaw ST8820.160.010−0.2020
HyltonLW90110.330.1230.1541
DraperDF2510.000.1510.1503
McKayFW20.030.0000.0100

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0221
HobanCB900.150.0000.0009
TaylorCB310.000.0000.0003
ConsidineCB900.000.0900.2435
HayesRWB640.000.7030.2583
McCrorieCM900.000.0400.0922
FergusonCM900.170.1500.1281
KennedyLWB900.710.3910.44123
WrightAM900.410.361−0.0433
MainST760.760.5320.1001
CosgroveST900.080.051−0.1312
LoganDF590.000.0300.0631
NgwenyaDF260.000.1000.0711
AndersonFW140.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Shaw: 3 passesNaismith and Hylton: 3 passesPaton and Lakin: 3 passesPaton and Shaw: 3 passesLaidlaw and Naismith: 4 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 4 passesNaismith and Vigurs: 4 passesRandall and Paton: 5 passesCharles-Cook and Shaw: 5 passesShaw and Hylton: 5 passesNaismith and Paton: 6 passesRandall and Lakin: 6 passesPaton and Vigurs: 6 passesVigurs and Lakin: 6 passesRandall and Vigurs: 7 passesPaton and Hylton: 11 passesLaidlaw: 14 completed passesNaismith: 12 completed passesIacovitti: 5 completed passesMorris: 2 completed passesRandall: 11 completed passesPaton: 21 completed passesVigurs: 18 completed passesLakin: 3 completed passesCharles-Cook: 5 completed passesShaw: 9 completed passesHylton: 12 completed passes123165224111917814LaidlawNaismithIacovittiMorrisRandallPatonVigursLakinCharles-CookShawHyltonStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Hayes and Cosgrove: 3 passesHayes and Main: 3 passesKennedy and Main: 3 passesConsidine and Ferguson: 4 passesFerguson and Cosgrove: 5 passesHayes and Ferguson: 7 passesLewis: 4 completed passesHoban: 3 completed passesTaylor: 3 completed passesConsidine: 9 completed passesHayes: 11 completed passesMcCrorie: 4 completed passesFerguson: 11 completed passesKennedy: 5 completed passesWright: 3 completed passesCosgrove: 4 completed passesMain: 4 completed passes131441740193325169LewisHobanTaylorConsidineHayesMcCrorieFergusonKennedyWrightCosgroveMainStarters until 31' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
PatonHylton10
NaismithPaton7
VigursLakin6
HyltonPaton6
NaismithHylton5

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ConsidineFerguson13
HayesWright9
LoganKennedy9
KennedyLogan7
MainHayes6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

6+0.913+6.820+4.910+1.65−0.38+0.314+7.56−1.610+0.96−2.010+5.35+0.26+2.42−3.08+2.16+1.73−0.23+0.60−3.54−0.32+0.22+0.82+0.91−0.61−0.92+1.31+0.71+0.51+0.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Aberdeen

4−1.19−3.270.05+0.25−1.54−2.28+0.37−0.24−1.03−2.04−0.13−2.89+2.22−1.83−0.65+3.08+3.62−2.73+1.31−0.70−0.91−1.11−2.10−0.70−0.51+0.11+0.40−0.72−4.52−5.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.020.010.020.020.060.010.030.020.040.010.020.11−0.210.120.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.020.020.020.030.030.030.020.060.080.110.080.070.040.010.140.11−0.070.190.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackRoss County0.88 → 0.92Aberdeen1.15 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.57 → 1.57Aberdeen1.00 → 1.04

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th35%36%+1
Bottom44%29%−15
Hamilton Academical
11th34%25%−9
Bottom46%58%+12
Motherwell
Top six6%6%0
11th15%17%+2
Bottom6%8%+2

From the forecast before the match (16 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyAberdeen
Expected goals0.781.57
Win18%56%
Expected Points0.801.93
Clean sheet21%46%

Ross County 18%Draw 26%Aberdeen 56%

Most likely score 0–1, 14%. Both sides score 43%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+10%6%2%7%9%5%2%3%5%4%2%1%14%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawAberdeen win
Ross County
11th35%36%35%35%
Bottom44%29%42%49%
Hamilton Academical
11th34%25%33%37%
Bottom46%58%47%42%
Motherwell
Top six6%6%5%6%
11th15%17%15%14%
Bottom6%8%7%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L1–310 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.28–1.74
  2. D1–12 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.81–1.57
  3. W2–030 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.69–1.42
  4. L0–226 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.54–1.79
  5. L0–223 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.15
  6. L0–219 DecHamilton Academical (H)xG 0.91–0.80

Aberdeen

  1. L1–210 JanRangers (H)xG 0.63–2.03
  2. D0–02 JanDundee United (H)xG 0.85–0.46
  3. W2–126 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.34–0.88
  4. D0–023 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.16–0.22
  5. W2–020 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.03–0.36
  6. W2–012 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.19–0.80

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyAberdeen
Position12th3rd
Played2321
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠1411–⁠6–⁠4
Points17 (0.74 per game)39 (1.86 per game)
Expected Points per game0.841.49
Goals14–⁠4228–⁠20
xG per game0.97–⁠1.811.20–⁠1.03
Home: points, xG per game0.64, 0.94–⁠2.011.92, 1.25–⁠1.18
Away: points, xG per game0.83, 1.00–⁠1.621.78, 1.13–⁠0.83
ManagerJohn Hughes (5)Derek McInnes (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.18AttackRoss County0.88, 11thAberdeen1.15, 4thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.57, 11thAberdeen1.00, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanRoss County attack: 0.88Aberdeen attack: 1.151.150.88AberdeenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanRoss County defence: 1.57Aberdeen defence: 1.001.571.00

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%+34%−22%−28%
Counter-attacks−77%−49%−6%−41%
Set pieces−25%+33%−11%−32%
Penalties−54%+109%+78%+53%
Headers+11%+20%−13%−39%
Left side−20%+21%−27%−26%
Centre−25%+50%−20%−40%
Right side−16%+7%−8%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdAberdeen concededLeft side−20%−15%Centre−25%−40%Right side−16%−26%Open play−17%−28%Counter-attacks−77%−41%Set pieces−25%−32%Headers+11%−39%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdRoss County concededLeft side−27%+7%Centre−20%+50%Right side−8%+21%Open play−22%+34%Counter-attacks−6%−49%Set pieces−11%+33%Headers−13%+20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.97xG1.20
1.81xG against1.03
49%Possession50%
9.6Shots10.8
13.8Shots against10.3
2.7Shots on target3.6
1.2Big chances1.4
14.9Touches in the opposition box18.7
394Passes405
72%Pass accuracy72%
4.2Corners4.5
48%Field tilt50%
37.5Final-third entries35.7
7.3Box entries9.5
14.6Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.891.75
Ahead120.511.78
Behind351.231.89

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.300.91
Ahead281.111.19
Behind151.041.08

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.301–5
16–300.150.276–7
31–450.180.172–3
46–600.140.340–8
61–750.170.421–10
76–900.210.314–9

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.124–3
16–300.110.164–3
31–450.230.176–4
46–600.170.196–6
61–750.170.163–2
76–900.230.235–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTLaidlaw 18Doohan 5Randall 10Watson 4Naismith 2Donaldson 19Watson 4Iacovitti 17Morris 5Grivosti 1Reid 17Iacovitti 2Watson 1Vigurs 8Draper 4Tillson 3Paton 4Gardyne 4Charles-Cook 3Paton 11Tillson 8Draper 4Vigurs 9Kelly 7Stewart 6Gardyne 6Paton 3Stewart 9Shaw 8McKay 64-1-4-1 in 8 of 23 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 4-5-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLewis 21Hoban 17McCrorie 3Hayes 2Taylor 19McKenna 4Considine 18Kennedy 6Hedges 5McLennan 3Ferguson 15Ojo 4Wright 1McCrorie 11Campbell 4McGeouch 2Hayes 15Kennedy 3Leigh 2Hedges 9Wright 6Ferguson 2Main 7Cosgrove 6Hedges 4Watkins 7Wright 4McGinn 33-4-1-2 in 7 of 21 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-4-3 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 December 2020Aberdeen2–0Ross CountyxG 1.19–0.80
27 September 2020Ross County0–3AberdeenxG 0.46–3.26

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Aberdeen won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–5 and xG 0.63–2.22 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart191,650210.370.06
McKay8809100.250.11
Shaw8844310.270.05
Kelly9922020.090.21

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watkins9732210.330.07
Ferguson181,581820.320.05
Cosgrove6586300.330.04
Main7630200.330.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.