Digressive Celts

Matches › 2020/21

St. Mirren 1–1 Motherwell

Saturday 9 January 2021, 15:00 · Simple Digital Arena · Round 23 · Half-time 0–1

St. Mirren McGrath 79' (pen)

Motherwell Cole 27'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenMotherwell
Goals11
xG1.511.85
Non-penalty xG0.721.85
Expected Points1.081.62

St. Mirren 26%Draw 30%Motherwell 44%

Most likely score 1–2, 16%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Motherwell goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+1%3%4%2%4%8%2%3%9%6%2%3%4%2%15%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBrophy on for McAllister, 57'Durmus on for Erhahon, 76'White on for Hastie, 72'Maguire on for Cole, 84'McGrath 79' (pen)Cole 27'Motherwell 1.85St. Mirren 1.5100.511.520153045607590HTBrophy on for McAllister, 57'Durmus on for Erhahon, 76'White on for Hastie, 72'Maguire on for Cole, 84'McGrath 79' (pen)Cole 27'1.851.51St. MirrenMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenMotherwell

1.51 +0.46xG1.85 +0.76
0.72Non-penalty xG1.85
1.22 +0.39xG on target1.78 +0.90
16 +4Shots11 0
2 −1.6Shots on target3 −0.1
1 −0.1Big chances3 +1.8
16 −3Touches in the opposition box20 −2
49% +2Possession51% +4
340 −16Passes353 −6
64% −3Pass accuracy66% −4
48% +4Field tilt52% +13
32 −3Final-third entries36 +3
8 −0.2Box entries10 −0.4
10.6 −3Passes per defensive action27.9 +14
4 −1.2Corners9 +4.0
17 +4Tackles10 −4
11 −1Interceptions9 −2
15 −6Clearances17 −4
2 −1.7Saves1 −1.5
8 −4Fouls11 −1
2 +0.5Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Connolly 39', 0.10 xGShaughnessy 37', 0.07 xGErhahon 62', 0.07 xGDoyle-Hayes 70', 0.06 xGDurmus 82', 0.06 xGFraser 11', 0.05 xGShaughnessy 82', 0.05 xGDoyle-Hayes 24', 0.04 xGErwin 57', 0.04 xGMcAllister 4', 0.03 xGMcGrath 14', 0.03 xGErwin 16', 0.03 xGErwin 36', 0.03 xGMcCarthy 40', 0.03 xGMcAllister 18', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals46%0.33 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals18%0.13 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals21%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals15%0.11 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Watt 22', 0.60 xGGallagher 32', 0.31 xGWhite 90+4', 0.09 xGCole 4', 0.06 xGCole 25', 0.06 xGO'Hara 85', 0.06 xGCole 4', 0.05 xGWhite 90+2', 0.05 xGCole 72', 0.04 xGPolworth 78', 0.03 xGCole 27', 0.50 xG, goal76%1.41 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.41 xG, 1 goal14%0.26 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.09 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenMotherwell

0.31 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.89 7 shots, 0 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.38 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.96 4 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
42 min (45%) · St. Mirren 0.32, Motherwell 1.47 xG
Motherwell ahead
52 min (55%) · St. Mirren 1.19, Motherwell 0.38 xG

Line-ups

12254210177252123AlnwickFraserMcCarthyShaughnessyTaitMcAllisterMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonConnollyErwinGoalYellow card57'76'St. Mirren 4-5-1Jim Goodwin1333163136719114432KellyO'DonnellMugabiGallagherCarrollCampbellO'HaraPolworthHastieColeWattYellow cardGoal72'84'Motherwell 4-3-3Graham Alexander

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 57' Brophy for McAllister
  • 76' Durmus for Erhahon

Motherwell substitutes

  • 72' White for Hastie
  • 84' Maguire for Cole

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AlnwickGK900.000.0000.0550
FraserRB900.050.0200.0678
McCarthyCB900.030.000−0.1256
ShaughnessyCB900.120.0000.0335
TaitLB900.000.0400.1176
McAllisterRM570.060.083−0.0120
McGrathCM9010.820.3020.0947
Doyle-Hayes CM900.100.0820.0137
ErhahonCM760.070.0200.0425
ConnollyLM900.100.0800.1550
ErwinST900.100.2720.0441
BrophyFW330.000.0810.0711
DurmusFW140.060.0100.0100

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0451
O'DonnellRB900.000.0200.0777
MugabiCB900.000.0100.0867
GallagherCB900.310.0200.0428
CarrollLB900.000.0100.0524
CampbellCM900.000.051−0.0132
O'Hara CM900.060.010−0.0104
PolworthCM900.030.8130.3593
HastieRW720.000.010−0.0601
ColeST8410.720.0100.1111
WattLW9010.600.2440.2433
WhiteFW180.140.000−0.0600
MaguireDF60.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Fraser and Doyle-Hayes: 3 passesFraser and Erwin: 3 passesShaughnessy and McGrath: 3 passesMcCarthy and Tait: 3 passesMcCarthy and McGrath: 3 passesAlnwick and Tait: 4 passesFraser and McAllister: 4 passesShaughnessy and Tait: 4 passesTait and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesTait and Erhahon: 4 passesMcAllister and McGrath: 4 passesMcAllister and Erwin: 4 passesMcGrath and Connolly: 4 passesDoyle-Hayes and Erwin: 4 passesFraser and Shaughnessy: 5 passesShaughnessy and Doyle-Hayes: 5 passesConnolly and Erwin: 5 passesAlnwick and McCarthy: 6 passesShaughnessy and McCarthy: 6 passesTait and Erwin: 6 passesMcCarthy and Doyle-Hayes: 9 passesFraser and McGrath: 10 passesFraser and McCarthy: 11 passesAlnwick: 5 completed passesFraser: 24 completed passesShaughnessy: 13 completed passesMcCarthy: 24 completed passesTait: 17 completed passesMcAllister: 7 completed passesMcGrath: 14 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 18 completed passesErhahon: 9 completed passesConnolly: 6 completed passesErwin: 9 completed passes12245210177252123AlnwickFraserShaughnessyMcCarthyTaitMcAllisterMcGrathDoyle-HayesErhahonConnollyErwinStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Motherwell

O'Donnell and Gallagher: 4 passesO'Donnell and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Donnell and Polworth: 4 passesGallagher and O'Hara: 4 passesO'Hara and Campbell: 4 passesKelly and Gallagher: 5 passesKelly and Watt: 5 passesMugabi and O'Hara: 5 passesMugabi and Campbell: 5 passesPolworth and Campbell: 5 passesCole and Watt: 5 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 6 passesKelly and Mugabi: 6 passesCarroll and Cole: 6 passesO'Donnell and Watt: 7 passesGallagher and Carroll: 7 passesGallagher and Polworth: 7 passesCampbell and Watt: 7 passesO'Donnell and Hastie: 8 passesCarroll and Polworth: 8 passesCampbell and Hastie: 8 passesO'Hara and Polworth: 9 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 11 passesPolworth and Watt: 11 passesMugabi and Gallagher: 15 passesO'Donnell and Campbell: 21 passesKelly: 17 completed passesO'Donnell: 41 completed passesMugabi: 24 completed passesGallagher: 26 completed passesCarroll: 18 completed passesO'Hara: 17 completed passesPolworth: 25 completed passesCampbell: 28 completed passesHastie: 9 completed passesCole: 5 completed passesWatt: 13 completed passes1333163137196114432KellyO'DonnellMugabiGallagherCarrollO'HaraPolworthCampbellHastieColeWattStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FraserMcGrath12
FraserMcCarthy8
McCarthyAlnwick8
McCarthyFraser7
TaitErwin6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
O'DonnellCampbell11
CampbellO'Donnell10
GallagherMugabi10
PolworthWatt8
O'DonnellHastie7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

5+0.36+0.215+1.54−2.34−1.47−0.38−0.58+1.19+0.86−1.76+1.48+1.53−1.38+2.84−2.01−3.63−0.78+5.34+0.55+1.00−2.32+0.22+1.01−1.23+0.60−0.90−0.20−0.90−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Motherwell

4−0.83−3.112−1.66−2.160.08+1.312+4.24−2.24−3.09+1.87+2.24−1.76+2.45−0.33−2.21−2.54+0.91−1.51−2.33+0.71−0.51+0.22+0.60−2.00−1.01+0.40−0.90−0.50−0.90−3.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.020.010.020.050.010.020.020.010.020.020.020.020.020.030.010.040.040.010.070.01−0.01−0.17−0.020.060.20LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.020.010.020.020.010.060.030.010.020.040.040.030.010.040.030.110.04−0.01−0.10−0.060.080.190.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackSt. Mirren0.91 → 0.92Motherwell1.00 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16 → 1.18Motherwell1.34 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six42%41%−1
11th4%3%−1
Bottom1%1%0
Motherwell
Top six8%6%−2
11th15%16%+1
Bottom9%9%0
Dundee United
Top six37%38%+1
11th3%3%0
Hamilton Academical
11th31%31%0
Bottom41%42%+1

From the forecast before the match (9 January 2021): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenMotherwell
Expected goals1.091.05
Win36%33%
Expected Points1.381.31
Clean sheet35%34%

St. Mirren 36%Draw 31%Motherwell 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 44%.

Motherwell goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+6%2%7%2%7%7%4%1%3%3%1%12%12%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 January 2021: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawMotherwell win
St. Mirren
Top six42%55%41%29%
11th4%1%3%6%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Motherwell
Top six8%3%6%14%
11th15%19%16%10%
Bottom9%13%9%4%
Dundee United
Top six37%34%38%39%
11th3%3%3%3%
Hamilton Academical
11th31%30%31%31%
Bottom41%39%42%44%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D1–12 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.52–0.97
  2. L0–230 DecRangers (H)xG 0.71–0.71
  3. W2–026 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.79–0.54
  4. L0–123 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.85–0.86
  5. W3–219 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.07–1.03
  6. W1–012 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.08–1.78

Motherwell

  1. L0–32 JanHamilton Academical (A)xG 0.86–0.87
  2. L0–230 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 0.40–1.78
  3. D1–126 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.82–0.67
  4. D0–023 DecAberdeen (H)xG 0.22–1.16
  5. L1–319 DecRangers (A)xG 0.81–3.64
  6. L0–112 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.78–1.08

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenMotherwell
Position7th11th
Played1920
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠4–⁠94–⁠5–⁠11
Points22 (1.16 per game)17 (0.85 per game)
Expected Points per game1.271.06
Goals15–⁠2217–⁠31
xG per game1.05–⁠1.191.09–⁠1.59
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.22–⁠1.000.73, 1.04–⁠1.65
Away: points, xG per game1.30, 0.89–⁠1.371.00, 1.16–⁠1.51
ManagerJim Goodwin (19)Graham Alexander (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.17AttackSt. Mirren0.91, 9thMotherwell1.00, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.16, 7thMotherwell1.34, 10th

This season

Attack0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren attack: 0.91Motherwell attack: 1.001.000.91MotherwellSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.00.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanSt. Mirren defence: 1.16Motherwell defence: 1.341.341.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−20%+9%−15%+15%
Counter-attacks−44%−100%−77%+82%
Set pieces+11%−19%−6%+20%
Penalties−72%−44%−20%+60%
Headers−13%+13%−6%+30%
Left sideaverage−9%−20%+6%
Centre−4%−26%−17%+31%
Right side−37%+49%−7%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdMotherwell concededLeft sideaverage+10%Centre−4%+31%Right side−37%+6%Open play−20%+15%Counter-attacks−44%+82%Set pieces+11%+20%Headers−13%+30%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−20%+49%Centre−17%−26%Right side−7%−9%Open play−15%+9%Counter-attacks−77%−100%Set pieces−6%−19%Headers−6%+13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenMotherwell

1.05xG1.09
1.19xG against1.59
46%Possession47%
11.7Shots11.3
12.6Shots against12.5
3.6Shots on target3.1
1.1Big chances1.2
19.0Touches in the opposition box21.7
356Passes360
67%Pass accuracy70%
5.2Corners5.0
44%Field tilt39%
34.8Final-third entries32.8
8.2Box entries10.4
13.8Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.221.19
Ahead180.941.24
Behind320.891.17

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level370.991.69
Ahead251.191.61
Behind281.131.42

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.213–2
16–300.170.212–7
31–450.180.192–5
46–600.120.232–2
61–750.110.211–5
76–900.290.145–1

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.316–5
16–300.180.183–3
31–450.150.233–4
46–600.210.221–4
61–750.260.283–5
76–900.090.361–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMCMLMSTAlnwick 16Zlamal 3Fraser 17Tait 1MacPherson 1McCarthy 18Shaughnessy 16Foley 3Tait 1Tait 14Obika 2Fraser 2Connolly 6McAllister 6Morias 2McGrath 16Sheron 6MacPhers… 5MacPhersonDoyle-Ha… 7Doyle-HayesObika 1Erhahon 13Foley 7Connolly 1Durmus 6Mason 5Obika 3Obika 7Erwin 7Morias 34-5-1 in 7 of 19 starts

Formations: 4-5-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 12Chapman 4Archer 4O'Donnell 16Grimshaw 2Gallagher 1Gallagher 18O'Hara 4Mugabi 10Lamie 8Grimshaw 8McGinley 7Lamie 4Campbell 18Long 1Seedorf 1O'Hara 12Crawford 5Maguire 4Polworth 14Turnbull 2Donnelly 1Lang 4O'Hara 3Seedorf 3Watt 11Long 5White 2Lang 7Watt 4Cole 44-3-3 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 December 2020Motherwell0–1St. MirrenxG 1.78–1.08

1 league meeting since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Motherwell won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–0 and xG 1.08–1.78 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika131,197300.330.06
Morias7664000.250.09
Erwin7739200.310.02
Durmus8760010.180.09

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Lang121,038310.360.03
Watt151,310310.260.06
Polworth141,230030.080.22
White3485000.220.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.