Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hibernian v Hearts

Saturday 10 April 2027, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 33

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.261.30
Win35%37%
Expected Points1.331.39
Clean sheet27%28%

Hibernian 35%Draw 28%Hearts 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%9%7%3%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.77–1.68
  2. D1–119 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.40–0.70
  3. L0–115 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.45–2.21
  4. L1–26 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.61–2.32
  5. L1–33 SepHearts (H)xG 1.47–0.86
  6. W2–130 AugDundee FC (A)xG 2.33–1.03

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position10th3rd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠55–⁠1–⁠2
Points7 (0.88 per game)16 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.331.90
Goals8–⁠1219–⁠8
xG per game1.58–⁠1.652.02–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game0.25, 1.56–⁠1.493.00, 2.44–⁠0.74
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.60–⁠1.811.00, 1.60–⁠1.66
ManagerMarink Reedijk (1)Wouter Vrancken (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.32, 4thHearts1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.27, 4thHearts1.11, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian attack: 1.32Hearts attack: 1.521.521.32HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctHibernian defence: 1.27Hearts defence: 1.111.271.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+6%+17%−21%
Counter-attacks−13%−1%−11%−53%
Set pieces+8%−6%+27%−8%
Penalties+80%+20%+140%−40%
Headers−35%+7%−10%−9%
Left side−11%−2%+45%−37%
Centre−25%+24%+25%+5%
Right side+20%−26%−34%−50%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−11%−50%Centre−25%+5%Right side+20%−37%Open play−15%−21%Counter-attacks−13%−53%Set pieces+8%−8%Headers−35%−9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+45%−26%Centre+25%+24%Right side−34%−2%Open play+17%+6%Counter-attacks−11%−1%Set pieces+27%−6%Headers−10%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.58xG2.02
1.65xG against1.20
51%Possession54%
16.4Shots16.8
13.4Shots against9.5
4.4Shots on target5.4
2.0Big chances2.8
31.6Touches in the opposition box29.9
443Passes445
81%Pass accuracy79%
6.9Corners7.4
55%Field tilt59%
44.7Final-third entries38.2
15.0Box entries16.5
14.7Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.101.77
Ahead171.552.02
Behind392.031.38

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–1
16–300.180.232–2
31–450.270.430–5
46–600.300.312–0
61–750.310.182–1
76–900.360.411–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWSallinger 8Kerr 8Passlack 2O'Hora 2Hanley 4Iredale 2Obita 4Ivezić 1Megwa 1Passlack 5Wright 1Megwa 1Mulligan 8Chaiwa 5Devaney 2Wright 1Mayor 5Wright 1Iredale 1Boyle 3Elding 2Šuto 1Lowe 4Šuto 2Boyle 1Klidje 3McGrath 2Wright 13-4-3 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2026Hibernian1–3HeartsxG 1.47–0.86
26 April 2026Hibernian1–2HeartsxG 0.54–1.83
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Hearts won 7, and 7 were drawn. Goals 17–24 and xG 1.25–1.11 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Passlack7644010.060.24
Mulligan8705010.140.09
Mayor5463100.060.17
Kerr8720000.130.03

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.