Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Hearts v Celtic

Sunday 29 November 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 15

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals1.151.57
Win27%47%
Expected Points1.081.66
Clean sheet21%32%

Hearts 27%Draw 26%Celtic 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Hearts

  1. W5–010 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.43–0.68
  2. D1–119 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 1.92–0.39
  3. L1–215 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.79–2.14
  4. W2–16 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.93–0.42
  5. W3–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.86–1.47
  6. W2–129 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.20–1.28

Celtic

  1. W2–011 OctMotherwell (A)xG 2.85–1.10
  2. L0–120 SepRangers (H)xG 0.39–1.81
  3. W1–09 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.80–0.69
  4. W2–15 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.19–1.95
  5. W3–02 SepAberdeen (H)xG 2.67–0.68
  6. W2–129 AugFalkirk (H)xG 3.45–0.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position3rd1st
Played88
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠27–⁠0–⁠1
Points16 (2.00 per game)21 (2.62 per game)
Expected Points per game1.902.25
Goals19–⁠816–⁠4
xG per game2.02–⁠1.202.76–⁠1.03
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 2.44–⁠0.742.25, 2.19–⁠0.89
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.60–⁠1.663.00, 3.33–⁠1.18
ManagerWouter Vrancken (8)Martin O'Neill (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.52, 3rdCeltic2.11, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 3rdCeltic0.88, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts attack: 1.52Celtic attack: 2.112.111.52CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctHearts defence: 1.11Celtic defence: 0.881.110.88

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+17%−21%+121%−47%
Counter-attacks−11%−53%+175%−28%
Set pieces+27%−8%−21%−4%
Penalties+140%−40%−100%−40%
Headers−10%−9%+132%−24%
Left side+45%−37%+164%−64%
Centre+25%+5%+93%−6%
Right side−34%−50%+25%−48%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+45%−48%Centre+25%−6%Right side−34%−64%Open play+17%−47%Counter-attacks−11%−28%Set pieces+27%−4%Headers−10%−24%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+164%−50%Centre+93%+5%Right side+25%−37%Open play+121%−21%Counter-attacks+175%−53%Set pieces−21%−8%Headers+132%−9%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

2.02xG2.76
1.20xG against1.03
54%Possession62%
16.8Shots20.6
9.5Shots against10.9
5.4Shots on target9.1
2.8Big chances5.0
29.9Touches in the opposition box39.5
445Passes620
79%Pass accuracy88%
7.4Corners9.4
59%Field tilt68%
38.2Final-third entries62.3
16.5Box entries24.5
12.1Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level221.791.33
Ahead462.011.30
Behind222.290.85

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.061.25
Ahead543.220.93
Behind112.161.05

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.064–1
16–300.240.092–2
31–450.530.154–0
46–600.380.263–2
61–750.210.142–1
76–900.350.524–2

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.134–0
16–300.420.241–1
31–450.550.234–1
46–600.590.075–1
61–750.340.212–1
76–900.540.150–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTReus 8Altena 7Borchgrevink 1McCart 4McEntee 4Fagan-Walcott 1Findlay 6Milne 1McCart 2Milne 2Mendy 1Magnússon 3Ageu 1Dhanda 1Mendy 6Spittal 3Renaud 1Miller 5Kerjota 3Braga 7Ba-Sy 1McPake 7Miller 1Wilson 6Braga 1Ba-Sy 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (2)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTSinisalo 7Johnstone 1Donovan 5Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 1Carter-Vickers 5Murray 2Trusty 6Scales 3Tierney 5Scales 3McGregor 7Baur 5Oxlade-Chamberlain 2Engels 2Hassan 4Durán 3McCowan 1Nygren 6Donovan 1Sørensen 1Yang 5Tounekti 2Nygren 1Høgh 4Durán 44-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 May 2026Celtic3–1HeartsxG 2.83–0.93
25 January 2026Hearts2–2CelticxG 1.66–1.35
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Celtic won 13, and 1 was a draw. Goals 22–42 and xG 0.97–2.40 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miller7535310.500.13
Braga8655320.490.08
McPake7556340.230.23
Mendy7582200.190.07

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren7564430.660.23
Durán7531430.490.32
Baur5460100.300.14
Scales6536100.100.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.