Digressive Celts

Matches › 2026/27

Motherwell v Aberdeen

Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 32

Forecast

MotherwellAberdeen
Expected goals1.640.98
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.830.92
Clean sheet38%19%

Motherwell 52%Draw 26%Aberdeen 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Aberdeen goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 October 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

Form

Motherwell

  1. L0–211 OctCeltic (H)xG 1.10–2.85
  2. L1–219 SepDundee FC (A)xG 1.10–1.38
  3. L0–415 SepAberdeen (H)xG 0.85–0.90
  4. L0–15 SepRangers (A)xG 0.70–4.29
  5. W3–02 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.39–0.16
  6. D3–330 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.45–2.92

Aberdeen

  1. L0–111 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.23–1.10
  2. D1–119 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.70–1.40
  3. W4–015 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.90–0.85
  4. D0–05 SepKilmarnock (H)xG 1.08–1.11
  5. L0–32 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.68–2.67
  6. L0–130 AugRangers (H)xG 0.35–2.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellAberdeen
Position9th8th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠2–⁠42–⁠2–⁠4
Points8 (1.00 per game)8 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.270.98
Goals9–⁠137–⁠9
xG per game1.51–⁠1.871.04–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.40–⁠1.111.00, 1.33–⁠1.54
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 1.61–⁠2.631.00, 0.75–⁠1.69
ManagerAlfred Johansson (8)Stephen Robinson (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackMotherwell1.30, 5thAberdeen1.11, 10thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.32, 5thAberdeen1.47, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell attack: 1.30Aberdeen attack: 1.111.301.11AberdeenMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctMotherwell defence: 1.32Aberdeen defence: 1.471.471.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+6%+1%−50%−14%
Counter-attacks−12%+81%−64%+24%
Set pieces−42%average+30%−7%
Penalties+20%+80%−40%+80%
Headers−43%−1%+56%−23%
Left side−32%−13%−61%+11%
Centre−31%+19%−32%−41%
Right side+58%+22%−7%+28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdAberdeen concededLeft side−32%+28%Centre−31%−41%Right side+58%+11%Open play+6%−14%Counter-attacks−12%+24%Set pieces−42%−7%Headers−43%−23%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdMotherwell concededLeft side−61%+22%Centre−32%+19%Right side−7%−13%Open play−50%+1%Counter-attacks−64%+81%Set pieces+30%averageHeaders+56%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellAberdeen

1.51xG1.04
1.87xG against1.61
58%Possession48%
14.0Shots11.5
16.4Shots against15.9
4.4Shots on target2.9
2.1Big chances1.5
24.6Touches in the opposition box22.0
571Passes399
88%Pass accuracy78%
5.1Corners6.1
59%Field tilt42%
50.8Final-third entries38.6
14.1Box entries12.5
14.8Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.601.37
Ahead172.361.40
Behind401.082.49

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level390.971.61
Ahead120.841.56
Behind391.171.64

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.181–2
16–300.280.342–1
31–450.270.242–5
46–600.140.460–3
61–750.280.262–0
76–900.220.392–2

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.220–3
16–300.120.221–0
31–450.120.401–3
46–600.120.161–1
61–750.160.350–2
76–900.490.264–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPaulsen 8Sparrow 8Girdwood-Rei… 4Girdwood-ReichKnight-Lebel 3O'Donnell 1Moormann 8Longelo 7Williams 1Fadinger 8Priestman 2Hodge 5Levitt 1Maswanhise 4Vogt 3Kanga 1Lowry 4Charles-Cook 3Booth 1Said 4Longelo 1Houlden 1Houlden 2Maswanhise 2Lowry 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-2-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMüller 8Cadden 7Lyons 1Mayo 6Milne 2Knoester 4Guinness… 1Guinness-WalkerOlusanya 1Molloy 4Happe 4Guinness… 7Guinness-WalkerCadden 1Ronan 5Olusanya 2Armstrong 2Aremu 7Briedl 2Marshall 3Yogane 1Yogane 3Mouloua 2Olusanya 2Nisbet 85-3-2 in 3 of 8 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 September 2026Motherwell0–4AberdeenxG 0.85–0.90
15 February 2026Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 2.46–0.62
9 November 2025Aberdeen1–1MotherwellxG 0.80–0.68
27 September 2025Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 2.03–1.00
29 March 2025Aberdeen4–1MotherwellxG 1.58–1.21
5 January 2025Motherwell2–0AberdeenxG 1.36–0.89

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 7, Aberdeen won 9, and 4 were drawn. Goals 27–30 and xG 1.34–1.39 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Maswanhise6491120.600.05
Lowry6534210.260.23
Longelo8656000.080.24
Fadinger8689100.180.06

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet8632410.340.04
Mayo6471010.240.01
Olusanya5501000.110.05
Guinness-Walker8675000.010.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.